MLB Daily Notes - June 12th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Tylor Megill led the day with a big 19.5% SwStr%, however he got into trouble in the fifth and lasted just 4.2 innings on 87 pitches. The numbers were really good across the board here though with a 52.9% Strike% and 34.5% Ball% on the 8:2 K:BB. For the season now he’s at 28.8% K% and 9.9% BB%, which makes him pretty interesting even for standard leagues. The command hasn’t been great but it was better last night and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a nice rest of the season.
Eight strikeouts for Ronel Blanco and that brought his season strikeout rate up to 23.8% and suddenly his SwStr% is above 14% as well. He’s about an average pitcher by the Strike% (47.7%) and Ball% (36.1%), so maybe the walk rate will drop below the 10% it’s at right now. He still has been very lucky with a .200 BABIP, nothing stands out with the pitch modeling stuff (97 Pitching+), but in a deep league you should keep rolling him out there.
Jesus Luzardo bounced back from his nine-earned run outing with 5.2 solid innings against the Mets. He got just four strikeouts but the 17.6% SwStr% and 50.5% Strike% were both very high. I would not be dropping or benching Luzardo anytime soon, he’s proven to be a very good strikeout pitcher since joining the Marlins and the K-BB% stuff has always been good. His command can just disappear sometimes, which leads to some really rough starts, but it’s more good than bad with Luzardo.
Kutter Crawford shook off his recent bad stretch with a quality start (6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB). He did give up two unearned runs so it wasn’t the greatest performance in the real world. His season K% is at 23.4% with a 13% SwStr% and a 7.4% BB%. So he’s fine, but I don’t think he’s like a must-start guy in a 10-team league or something like that. Last year he really impressed me with a high SwStr% on his four-seamer, but that hasn’t been the case this year at 9.7%. The Strike% on it is elite at 55%, so it’s still working nicely.
He doesn’t have a fantastic breaking ball anywhere but the sweeper and splitter are fine. Solid arm, but not a ton of upside I don’t believe (still great for where you drafted him).
Louie Varland came back and got through a good start against the Rockies.
5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 K, 1 BB, 12.7% SwStr%, 44.4% Strike%, 33.3% Ball%
So that’s a lot of balls put into play, and a lot of outs made on those. He threw just 63 pitches there which shows you the confidence level they had with him, pulling him while he presumedly had a lot left in the tank. He’s not a fantasy add right now but he’s someone we’ll keep an eye on if he stays in the rotation.
Drew Thorpe’s debut went well in the box score but not so much in the advanced numbers:
5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 11.2% SwSTr5, 45.9% Strike%, 37.8% Ball%
He threw five different pitches but used the changeup+four-seam two-thirds of the time:
Good numbers on the changeup there but the four-seamer wasn’t impressive at all, he seemed to have no command of it. You would expect a much better Ball% on his four-seamer moving forward than 46%, so there’s certainly reason to hold on to him for now if you added him. Can’t judge the guy on one start.
Paul Skenes was incredible once again, he threw 103 pitches and put the Pirates into a playoff spot (stop the count!). He’s now at a 16.5% SwStr% and 31.8% Ball% with the 30.8% K-BB%.
The pitch mix update:
It’s not a typical splitter so it’s not really one to compare to other splitters, but let’s do it anyway. His 53% Strike% on the splitter is third-best in the league for splitters thrown at least 150 times.
There’s nothing all that useful to say about Skenes, but the biggest storyline in my opinion was that he came back out for the seventh inning after throwing 94 pitches through six. So they’re willing to let him go 100+, which was something we didn’t really expect at the beginning of his season.
Cal Quantrill man, shout out to him
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 5 K, 1 BB, 15% SwStr%, 46% Strike%, 39% Ball%
He now has a 3.58 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. There’s still nothing real about that though with the 4.73 SIERA and sub-10% K-BB%. He’s not good, but he’s not as bad as he was last year, I guess.
And that is all I have time for today!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Tylor Megill
2. Jesus Luzardo
3. Jordan Hicks
4. Kutter Crawford
5. Paul Skenes
6. Ronel Blanco
7. Yusei Kikuchi
8. Cal Quantrill
9. Louie Varland
10. Albert Suarez
11. Drew Thorpe
12. Jhonathan Diaz
13. Jordan Montgomery
14. Miles Mikolas
15. Jose Suarez
16. Zack Wheeler
17. James Paxton
18. Dane Dunning
19. Max Fried
20. Zach Eflin
21. Randy Vasquez
22. Jameson Taillon
23. Carlos F. Rodriguez
24. JP Sears
25. Triston McKenzie
26. Kenta Maeda
27. Brady Singer
28. Marcus Stroman
29. Mitchell Parker
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ronel Blanco (vs. SF): 29.1 Points
2. Paul Skenes (vs. STL): 27.24 Points
3. Miles Mikolas (vs. PIT): 26.55 Points
4. Cal Quantrill (vs. MIN): 25.1 Points
5. Zack Wheeler (vs. BOS): 23.35 Points
6. Kutter Crawford (vs. PHI): 21.3 Points
7. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. MIL): 21.05 Points
8. Jameson Taillon (vs. TB): 20.5 Points
9. Albert Suarez (vs. ATL): 19.79 Points
10. Tylor Megill (vs. MIA): 18.91 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Tylor Megill (NYM): 17 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
3. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Cal Quantrill (COL): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Paul Skenes (PIT): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
7. Jordan Hicks (SF): 13 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
8. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. Albert Suarez (BAL): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
10. Drew Thorpe (CWS): 11 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Paul Skenes (PIT): 57.3 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
2. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 55.7 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
3. Tylor Megill (NYM): 52.9 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
4. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 50.5 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
5. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 49.5 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
6. Miles Mikolas (STL): 48.8 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
7. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 48.5 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
8. Jhonathan Diaz (SEA): 47.6 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
9. Jordan Hicks (SF): 47.2 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Cal Quantrill (COL): 46.0 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
11. Drew Thorpe (CWS): 45.9 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
12. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 45.8 Strike%, 40.6 Ball%
13. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 45.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
14. Albert Suarez (BAL): 45.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
15. Randy Vasquez (SD): 45.3 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Miles Mikolas: 84 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Zack Wheeler: 88 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.19 POUT
3. Louie Varland: 63 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.2 POUT
4. Triston McKenzie: 75 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.69 POUT
5. Zach Eflin: 81 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.76 POUT
6. James Paxton: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Kutter Crawford: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
8. Jameson Taillon: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
9. Jordan Montgomery: 87 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.12 POUT
10. Jhonathan Diaz: 82 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.12 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Randy Vasquez's CU velo (25 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 83.2
Marcus Stroman's SI velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.5
Paul Skenes's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.6
Louie Varland's FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.9
Ronel Blanco's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 85.4
James Paxton's FF velo (52 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 92.6
Carson Fulmer's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 85.5
Cal Quantrill's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 78.9
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 81.2
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (34 pitches) DOWN -4.6mph to 93.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cal Quantrill's FS usage (41.0%) up 16.8 points
Carson Fulmer's FF usage (36.1%) up 25.3 points
JP Sears's SI usage (18.8%) up 15.6 points
Jordan Hicks's ST usage (31.9%) up 11.0 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (29.9%) up 18.0 points
Jose Suarez's SI usage (21.5%) up 13.2 points
Louie Varland's CU usage (23.8%) up 17.1 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (30.4%) up 16.2 points
Marcus Stroman's SL usage (20.6%) up 10.5 points
Paul Skenes's CU usage (19.4%) up 12.5 points
Randy Vasquez's CU usage (29.1%) up 13.3 points
Ronel Blanco's FF usage (53.1%) up 14.4 points
Tylor Megill's FC usage (28.7%) up 26.0 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FF usage (64.9%) up 18.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -24.9%
Luis Severino Sinker: +24.3%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -20.7%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +20.6%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -17.7%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.4%
Albert Suarez 4-Seam Fastball: -15.9%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -15.0%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Simeon Woods Richardson Slider: +13.7%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
George Kirby Slider: +13.4%
Trevor Rogers Sinker: +13.4%
Nick Nastrini Slider: +13.3%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Casey Mize Sinker: +12.3%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -12.3%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.2%
Jose Urena Sinker: +12.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.1%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.0%
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