Last day at the beach, and I don’t think I’m going to eat anything with sugar in it for like six weeks after this. One of the riskiest things you can do in life is eat a funnel cake. And the risk did not pay off last night. And that’s all I’ll say about that.
Tomorrow we drive home. 12 hours drive time to get back to our home, sweet home. And I’m very excited to get back. It’s one of my favorite feelings of the year, getting back to where we’re supposed to be after two weeks away. I don’t think the kids agree, and I’m not sure about my wife either. But I love just being at home. I always have, I think. I have very little desire to see the world and whatnot. I just like doing my thing in my own house.
If I could have any vacation I wanted or do anything I wanted for a week, I really don’t think I’d go anywhere. I’d just be at home, doing baseball stuff, running a lot, eating a bunch of tacos, and reading a bunch of books. And not eating any funnel cake.
So the daily notes won’t happen tomorrow, and we’ll probably just have a very brief one on Sunday morning like usual. I’ve become one of the main tech guys for our church services Sunday mornings, so I’m having to go in there pretty early most weeks, and that comes at the expense of your daily notes. But I make no apologies!
The first man to mention is clearly Jacob Misiorowski.
5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 5 K, 4 BB
He left a bit early with an ankle or something. Apparently, that’s nothing to be concerned about. He was near the end of his outing anyway after delivering 81 pitches.
The four-seamer averaged 99mph with a 16.3% SwStr% and a 35% Ball%. That will play. The slider also went for a 16% SwStr%, but a higher 44% Ball%. And he was not overly reliant on the four-seamer. We’ve seen that with young prospects who have good fastballs. They’ll just come out ripping 60-70% fastball usage. And that’s a red flag for me, but not with Misiorowski. 53% might even be a touch low for how good his fastball is.
The overall ball rate was 39.5%. One start is not enough to judge. But I could see this kind of thing being about what we see from Misiorowski, meaning a 15-17% SwStr% with a 38-40% Ball%. That would work, I think, but it would keep him well out of ace territory.
He’ll be a big name in FAAB this week in those leagues where you can’t add the guy until after they made an appearance. I’m sure he’ll go for a ton of money. My personal approach would probably be to let someone else go for him with the huge bids. There are going to be walks, and he’ll probably also get hit hard at times. You can’t just coast through MLB hitters on velo alone. I think he’ll be pretty good, but I can’t see him being a fantastic fantasy starting pitcher right now.
Framber Valdez made me look really dumb for recommending under 7.5 strikeouts. He punched out a dozen White Sox and now has 32 strikeouts in his last three starts (19 innings). The season K% is up to 26.7%, and the walk rate is now under 8%. He’s also won his last five starts and six out of seven.
I don’t see much else to talk about on the pitching side yesterday. Pretty tame slate on that front besides the big Misiorowski debut.
Ernie Clement shows up on the hot hitter tracker. I don’t think I’ve mentioned him this year, so here we are.
So Clement is one of these elite contact bats with very little power. He also has just two steals, so he's not great on that front.
But the batting average and playing time are there, and that makes him somewhat useful in certain fantasy leagues.
Let’s look at this “player type”. Here are your hitters with elite contact (K% under 15%), low walk rates (BB% under 6%), and no power (Brl% below 5%).
As a group, they’re hitting .293, although that’s inflated by Jacob Wilson’s .366 mark. Flipping that around. Here are your high strikeout, high walk, high power guys.
It’s the classic trade-off. Most guys can either have power or contact. Few are able to have them both.
So let’s look at the guys who don’t have either. There are three hitters with 200+ PA, a K% above 26%, and a Brl% below 7%. A horrible combination of stats to have.
That hot start from Kristian Campbell was a total fakeout. I think you should be dropping that guy in redraft leagues if you haven’t yet.
Kristian Campbell Rolling wOBA and xwOBA
I think you can probably cut Anthony Santander as well. His K% is way up and his Brl% is way down. Something isn’t right, or maybe he just hates Canada and mailed it in after getting the big contract.
We should complete the section here by showing you the guys with both power and contact. These are in the daily notes in one way or another daily as the magic formula qualifiers.
I’m grasping for content ideas here, just nothing really popping out for me to talk about right now. So here are your fantasy point leaders in June.
Pete Alonso 169
Juan Soto 153
Manny Machado 136
Aaron Judge 132
Hunter Goodman 127
Brandon Nimmo 127
Trea Turner 124
Jose Ramirez 124
Jo Adell 124
Ketel Marte 123
Marcus Semien 122
Willson Contreras 116
Jeremy Pena 113
Brent Rooker 113
Pete Crow-Armstrong 112
Josh Smith 109
Zach Neto 107
Ceddanne Rafaela 107
Lawrence Butler 106
Jeff McNeil 106
The Mets make up 20% of that list. They have scored 64 runs in June (second to Boston at 65) and have led the league in homers by far (25 homers, second place is Arizona at 19).
How about your pitching leaders in June. This will be super biased towards the guys with an extra start (so 3 rather than two, which most people have).
Jameson Taillon 65 (3 GS)
Framber Valdez 64 (2 GS)
Chris Sale 63 ( GS)
Paul Skenes 59 (2 GS)
Garrett Crochet 59 (2 GS)
Merrill Kelly 58 (2 GS)
Tarik Skubal 55 (2 GS)
Logan Webb 54 (2 GS)
Jacob deGrom 54 (2 GS)
Jack Flaherty 53 (2 GS)
That will do it for today!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez
2. Jacob Misiorowski
3. Tarik Skubal
4. Hayden Birdsong
5. Andrew Heaney
6. Kodai Senga
7. Davis Martin
8. Patrick Corbin
9. Michael Soroka
10. Jameson Taillon
11. Sonny Gray
12. Seth Lugo
13. Will Warren
14. Bailey Ober
15. Antonio Senzatela
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (vs. CWS): 30.45 Points
2. Tarik Skubal (vs. BAL): 28.75 Points
3. Kodai Senga (vs. WSH): 25.56 Points
4. Jameson Taillon (vs. PIT): 24.64 Points
5. Jacob Misiorowski (vs. STL): 22.85 Points
6. Dean Kremer (vs. DET): 19.55 Points
7. Andrew Heaney (vs. CHC): 19.1 Points
8. Will Warren (vs. KC): 17.76 Points
9. Patrick Corbin (vs. MIN): 15.85 Points
10. Hayden Birdsong (vs. COL): 14.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 20 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
2. Dean Kremer (BAL): 17 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 16 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
4. Tarik Skubal (DET): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
5. Davis Martin (CWS): 13 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 13 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
7. Andrew Heaney (PIT): 12 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
8. Michael Soroka (WSH): 11 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
9. Kodai Senga (NYM): 10 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
10. Bailey Ober (MIN): 10 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 60.0 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
2. Tarik Skubal (DET): 58.2 Strike%, 24.5 Ball%
3. Andrew Heaney (PIT): 51.3 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
4. Dean Kremer (BAL): 49.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
5. Patrick Corbin (TEX): 49.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
6. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 49.4 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%
