MLB Daily Notes - June 13th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Lots of really interesting pitcher performances yesterday so let’s rip through some.
Michael King went absolutely nuts until the sixth inning when he put a few guys on base and then was removed. He had a dozen strikeouts and a 19.4% SwStr% (19 whiffs). That was the second-most strikeouts of his career (he struck out 13 Blue Jays last September 20th). He now has a 12.6% SwStr% and 36% Ball% with a 17.4% K-BB%. In his last seven starts though he has a 31.3% K% and 7.8% BB%, so that’s an elite 23.5% K-BB% and it gives me reason to call him a must-start now. He’s been excellent.
Jonathan Cannon has been in AAA twice and has also worked out of the bullpen once, but he made a start yesterday and was awesome (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB). He generated 17 whiffs on a 16.3% SwStr%, but he did throw a lot of balls at 37.5%. His sweeper has been great, and the sinker has been pretty good as well with the 52% Strike% and 62% GB%, and then he also has a cutter, changeup, and four-seamer. This kid just 23 years old, but interestingly his minor league K% was just 20.4% in 165 innings since 2022, so that makes it tough to believe he can be a strikeout pitcher at the highest level. But this start certainly puts him on the deep-league radar for now.
Cade Povich was very good (6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 6 K, 0BB, 51.7% Strike%, 15.7% SwStr%, 29.2% Ball%). ALTHOUGH IT WAS AGAINST THE BRAVES 😂. Look at that I used an emoji in the notes. The SwStr% is now at 11.6% with a 45% Strike% and 36% Ball%, so none of that is very good. The 40 curveballs he has thrown have been magnificent as expected, but the question is all about the fastball, and his first 89 fastballs haven’t gone well. I’d start him again next time, but I think we might end up with him being in the Reese Olson category where his primary fastball just isn’t good enough to support his secondaries at the MLB level, or at least not enough to make him a great fantasy option this year.
Tanner Bibee was having one of the best starts of his career until he gave up a three-run homer in the sixth to make his line look a lot worse (5.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 11 K, 1 BB). But he was cooking with 16 whiffs and a 15.7% SwStr% and a 58.8% Strike%. Like King, he started poorly but has been fantastic of late. He has a 32.5% K% and 4.2% BB% in his last five starts but some poorly timed homers have generated a 3.34 ERA and just two wins in that time. But Bibee is must-start, that’s the point, he’s very good.
Nick Pivetta struggled with six hits and four walks allowed, making it through just four innings and giving up four earned runs. If you remember back before last year, the problem with Pivetta walk walks. He posted a 9.8% BB% in 2021 and a 9.4% in 2022. Last year wasn’t all that great either at 8.5%, but this year he’s at 7.0%. It’s quite possible if not likely that the BB% returns to 8.5% or so, since that’s about his recent career average, but the strikeouts aren’t likely to go anywhere with his 14.8% SwStr% and 29.7% K%.
Braxton Garrett was bad again and I’m starting to think the strikeouts just won’t come this year. A 10.1% SwStr% now on 495 pitches with a 45% Strike% and 35% Ball%. It’s not good. The 53% GB% is good to see, but nothing is going well for Garrett and I’ll be downgrading him in in my mind now, I think you can probably drop him in 12-teamers or lower. The sinker velo is at 89.9 this year, down from an already low 90.5 last year. His Stuff+ [before yesterday] was 89 with a 98 Location+, so nothing here is very good.
Walker Buehler went for an 8% SwStr% yesterday, right in line with what we had seen prior. He now has an 8.1% SwStr% on 581 pitches, and that’s concerning. The Stuff+ is 99 and the Pitching+ is at 102. It would not appear that Buehler is anywhere near a fantasy ace this year.
And those are the SP outings I thought most worthy of comment.
Hitter Review
More on the Braves offense.
All Season: .706 OPS (13th)
Since May 1: .650 (28th)
Since Losing Acuna: .602 (29th)
Here’s the full player data since the Acuna injury:
Wild stuff. I certainly expect Albies and Riley to be much better than this, but I don’t have the same confidence about guy slike Harris, Duvall, Arcia, Murphy, and Kelenic. I think the Braves will still be a top-ten lineup for the rest of the year, but they are not close to the same juggernaut as last year when you really couldn’t start any non-ace against them.
Let’s take a look at Royce Lewis, who homered again yesterday. Since last season:
272 PA, .316/.375/.595, .970 OPS, 20 HR, 22% K%, 8% BB%, 13.3% Brl%
That is a 13.6 PA/HR, second only to Aaron Judge (12.1) since last season for hitters above 250 PAs.
This year: 8 starts, HR in 5 games, 5 total HRs
2023 Postseason: 6 starts, HR in 3 games, 4 total HRs
2023 Reg Season: 56 starts, HR in 15 games, 15 total HRs
Add it all up and that’s 23 games with a homer in 70 starts (33%). Insane stuff. Even with the relatively small sample, I think it’s pretty safe to say this guy is a top-ten hitter in the league, and it will be extremely interesting to see what happens the rest of this year and what his draft stock will be next year.
It’s also probably worth noting that the home run rate is going to regress. IF we look at all the hitters with a PA/HR under 15 the last two years with this 250+ PA criteria, here are the barrel rates:
Judge: 12.1 PA/HR, 27.8% Brl%
Lewis: 13.6 PA/HR, 13.3% Brl%
Ohtani: 14.3 PA/HR, 19.3% Brl%
Wisdom: 14.7 PA/HR, 18.5% Brl%
Robert: 14.8 PA/HR, 16.4% Brl%
Ozuna: 14.9 PA/HR, 17.3% Brl%
So his barrel rate is a handful of points below the rest of those guys. Since 2023, Royce has hit 59 fly balls and has 17 homers on them for a 29% HR/FB, that’s the tenth-highest rate in the league for hitters with at least 50 fly balls.
His pull rate on fly balls around 30%, which is not close to the league leaders, it’s a fine number but it’s probably not one that can support a 29% HR/FB especially given that his 90th-percentile EV on fly balls is 106.4, which again - that’s a good numbers but it’s not close to the league’s elite guys who are all above 109.
So there’s regression coming for Royce in all likelihood, but if he stays healthy he’s still clearly a stud hitter and probably a top three option at third base right now.
How about David Hamilton lately? He homered yesterday and now has done this for the year:
135 PA, .296/.348/.472, .820 OPS, 25% K%, 6.7% BB%, 4 HR, 13 SB
The reason to add him in fantasy is the steals. His 41% attempt rate is seventh-highest in the league and he’s stealing bags so far at a pace for like 60 steals. The .296 average and four homers are nice bonuses, but it doesn’t seem that either of those will be sticking around with the .379 BABIP and just a 5.5% Brl%. His bat speed is very, very low and his 90th percentile EV is under 103, which is also very low. So I wouldn’t expect homers, but in a roto league where you need steals he’ll make value in that way as long as he stays in the lineup.
In June, he’s started eight of the Red Sox 10 games, mostly hitting 6th-8th, but he did recently hit 2nd in the lineup, which is an encouraging sign. He is basically in a platoon, but on the strong side of it as a left-handed hitter.
Two dingers for Jackson Merrill yesterday, and we haven’t mentioned him in awhile. He is now hitting .279/.309/.389 with five homers and nine steals. That’s not a 10-team league player, especially since he had just three homers before yesterday.
He does not strike out often at all (15%), but the homers and steals just aren’t quite enough to get him to fantasy relevance in shallow leagues. He’s like 14 years old so I’m only talking short-term here, by the way.
His 7.1% Brl% and 44% hard hit rate do give some hope that he can hit homers at a better rate than he has so far (49 PA/HR), but he’s hitting a lot of ground balls (46%), so it seems like he’s a decent guy for batting average that won’t kill you anywhere else, a better name for a very deep league - but there’s upside here down the road
And that’s it for this section, we move on!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Michael King
2. Cade Povich
3. Bryce Miller
4. Tanner Bibee
5. Jonathan Cannon
6. Sonny Gray
7. Pablo Lopez
8. Jose Soriano
9. Tobias Myers
10. Reese Olson
11. Spencer Schwellenbach
12. Nick Lodolo
13. Javier Assad
14. Nick Pivetta
15. Logan Webb
16. Bailey Falter
17. Jake Irvin
18. Slade Cecconi
19. Hogan Harris
20. Cristopher Sanchez
21. Aaron Civale
22. Walker Buehler
23. Jon Gray
24. Braxton Garrett
25. Chris Bassitt
26. Cody Poteet
27. Framber Valdez
28. David Peterson
29. Austin Gomber
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray (vs. PIT): 32.75 Points
2. Bryce Miller (vs. CWS): 29.35 Points
3. Michael King (vs. OAK): 27.65 Points
4. Jonathan Cannon (vs. SEA): 24.75 Points
5. Jose Soriano (vs. ARI): 23.8 Points
6. Tanner Bibee (vs. CIN): 22.99 Points
7. Cade Povich (vs. ATL): 22.5 Points
8. Jake Irvin (vs. DET): 21.3 Points
9. Tobias Myers (vs. TOR): 21.1 Points
10. Nick Lodolo (vs. CLE): 19.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael King (SD): 19 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
3. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 16 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
4. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
5. Cade Povich (BAL): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 14 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
7. Reese Olson (DET): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Jose Soriano (LAA): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
9. Sonny Gray (STL): 12 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
10. Dedniel Nunez (NYM): 12 Whiffs (29 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael King (SD): 63.3 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
2. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 58.8 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
3. Bryce Miller (SEA): 54.3 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
4. Cade Povich (BAL): 51.7 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
5. Tobias Myers (MIL): 51.5 Strike%, 25.8 Ball%
6. Jake Irvin (WSH): 51.0 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
7. Sonny Gray (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
8. Bailey Falter (PIT): 50.0 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
9. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 49.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
10. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 49.4 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
11. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 47.3 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
12. Hogan Harris (OAK): 47.0 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
13. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 46.7 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
14. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 46.2 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
15. Austin Gomber (COL): 45.8 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tobias Myers: 66 Pitches, 17 Outs, 3.88 POUT
2. Sonny Gray: 84 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.0 POUT
3. Jose Soriano: 97 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.04 POUT
4. Bryce Miller: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
5. Daniel Lynch IV: 95 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.75 POUT
6. Logan Webb: 83 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.88 POUT
7. Framber Valdez: 59 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.92 POUT
8. Cade Povich: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Spencer Schwellenbach: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
10. Jonathan Cannon: 104 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.95 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (36 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 87.5
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (23 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 90.6
Slade Cecconi's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.7
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.2
Jon Gray's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 90.1
Cristopher Sanchez's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 84.9
Bailey Falter's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.3
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (40 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.7
Bryce Miller's FS velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.0
Tanner Bibee's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 81.6
Nick Pivetta's ST velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 81.7
Hogan Harris's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 73.1
Framber Valdez's SI velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 93.0
Pablo Lopez's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 80.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's FF usage (56.9%) up 13.7 points
Braxton Garrett's FF usage (20.2%) up 12.1 points
Cristopher Sanchez's SI usage (59.7%) up 12.6 points
Hogan Harris's SL usage (14.5%) up 12.7 points
Javier Assad's CU usage (17.8%) up 10.4 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (52.6%) up 17.5 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (19.3%) up 11.6 points
Slade Cecconi's CH usage (25.3%) up 14.6 points
Sonny Gray's FC usage (28.6%) up 14.7 points
Walker Buehler's FC usage (36.4%) up 16.1 points
Walker Buehler's SI usage (35.2%) up 16.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -24.9%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -20.7%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +20.6%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -17.7%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.4%
Albert Suarez 4-Seam Fastball: -15.9%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -15.0%
Simeon Woods Richardson Slider: +13.7%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
George Kirby Slider: +13.4%
Trevor Rogers Sinker: +13.4%
Nick Nastrini Slider: +13.3%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Casey Mize Sinker: +12.3%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -12.3%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.1%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 71 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 98 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 79 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Ben Brown - 76 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 71 TBF, 40.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 38.7% K%
Sonny Gray - 87 TBF, 36.8% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Tanner Bibee - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Ben Brown - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Michael King - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Paul Skenes - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%
####K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 71 TBF, 35.2% K-BB%
Ryan Pepiot - 71 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 87 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Michael King - 87 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 67.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 78 TBF, 63.0% GB%
David Peterson - 74 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 103 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Erick Fedde - 100 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 73 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Jose Soriano - 100 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Sonny Gray - 87 TBF, 55.6% GB%
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