MLB Daily Notes - June 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
New resource!
Pitchers - Yesterday
One of the best starts of the entire 2023 season last night came from George Kirby
He and Joe Ryan have separated themselves from the pack in terms of not throwing balls. Kirby’s Ball% is now down to 28.6%, seven points below the league average. Only Ryan is qualified and also below 30%. When Kirby gets to 2 or 3 ball counts, he throws a ball 18% of the time, which leads the league by far. Kirby’s BB% is under 2%.
The downside is that K% is down way below what I expected from him. He’s at 22% right now on a below-average 11.7% SwStr%. I’d be interested to explore how high you can feasibly take a K% when you’re throwing as many strikes as Kirby is. Pitches in the zone are obviously going to be easy to hit than pitches out of the zone, and Kirby is filling up the zone. But he should not change anything, because he’s still controlling contact well with a 46% GB% and a good 40.4 PA/HR, he’s a great pitcher and one of the most interesting statistical guys in the league.
Tony Gonsolin continues to defy the statistics.
ERA: 1.93
xFIP: 5.05AVG: .155
xAVG: .232wOBA: .235
xwOBA: .308
He’s now gone 32 starts with this witchcraft going back to last year, which is a full season sample.
He is having an inordinate amount of success on balls in play. To really investigate this, we can use Statcast’s launch_speed_angle classification model. I gave a full explanation of these ball in play types here, so give that a read if your heart tells you to.
Super quick summary:
Topped: Ground balls
Under: Weak Fly Balls / Popups
Flare: Softer line drives
Barrels: High velo (97+), optimal angle range
Solid: Just shy of being a barrel
Weak: Under 60mph
Here are your benchmarks:
Here’s what Gonsolin has done since 2022:
wOBA Comparison:
It’s not unreasonable to believe that some pitchers have a skill for getting better results on their balls in play. BABIP is something that is somewhat in a pitcher’s control.
What is much harder to believe is that a pitcher can beat the league averages on each individual batted ball type like Gonsolin has done. He’s allowed a hit on just 47% of the flares he’s given up, the league average is 66%.
The Dodgers have a hand in this. They have clearly optimized shifting and defensive placement like other teams have not, and maybe the new shift rules haven’t taken away as much of their edge as we thought, but this is just ridiculous stuff.
So the question is, do you believe in witchcraft? Can Gonsolin really do this forever? I believe in angels and demons, but I’m not sure my faith is this strong. Egg heads like me have been screaming to trade Gonsolin for a year now, and we told you not to draft him, and we’ve been wrong for 32 straight starts. But am I changing my mind? No!
Here’s the rest of the stuff:
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (vs. MIA): 35.7 Points
2. Tony Gonsolin (vs. CWS): 27.1 Points
3. Zack Wheeler (vs. ARI): 26.5 Points
4. Hunter Brown (vs. WSH): 23.55 Points
5. Pablo Lopez (vs. MIL): 22.5 Points
6. Dean Kremer (vs. TOR): 20.7 Points
7. Hogan Harris (vs. TB): 19.35 Points
8. Corbin Burnes (vs. MIN): 18.7 Points
9. Joe Musgrove (vs. CLE): 16.7 Points
10. Jameson Taillon (vs. PIT): 14.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (SEA): 20 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Lance Lynn (CWS): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Chase Anderson (COL): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Zach Davies (ARI): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
7. Dean Kremer (BAL): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 12 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
9. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (SEA): 62.0 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
2. Chase Anderson (COL): 53.9 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 53.5 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
4. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 53.2 Strike%, 27.3 Ball%
5. Jaime Barria (LAA): 51.6 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
6. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 51.5 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
7. Hunter Brown (HOU): 51.5 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
8. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 51.2 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
9. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 50.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Lance Lynn (CWS): 49.5 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
11. Alex Cobb (SF): 49.4 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
12. Joe Musgrove (SD): 48.9 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
13. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 48.5 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
14. Hogan Harris (OAK): 47.6 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
15. Luis Severino (NYY): 47.1 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. George Kirby - 6.0 IP - 156.0 JA Points
2. Pablo Lopez - 6.0 IP - 150.5 JA Points
3. Zack Wheeler - 6.0 IP - 140.5 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes - 5.67 IP - 132.0 JA Points
5. Tony Gonsolin - 6.0 IP - 130.0 JA Points
6. Joe Musgrove - 5.67 IP - 126.5 JA Points
7. Chase Anderson - 4.33 IP - 116.0 JA Points
8. Hogan Harris - 7.0 IP - 114.5 JA Points
9. Jameson Taillon - 6.0 IP - 107.0 JA Points
10. Dean Kremer - 6.0 IP - 106.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13.0 GS - 121.86 JA Points
2. Trevor Richards (TOR) - 1.0 GS - 119.5 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
4. Alex Wood (SF) - 7.0 GS - 111.4 JA Points
5. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
6. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 13.0 GS - 108.64 JA Points
7. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 10.0 GS - 107.97 JA Points
8. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 14.0 GS - 107.1 JA Points
9. James Paxton (BOS) - 6.0 GS - 106.74 JA Points
10. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 106.5 JA Points
Pitcher & Pitch Trends
Lance Lynn threw his curveball harder but big friggin whoop-de-doo he still got thrashed. The way he betrayed me this year is just something I’ll never forget. Don’t skip the cardio, folks!
James Taillon used his four-seamer more and was better yesterday but still didn’t show much command with a very high 38% Ball%. Four strikeouts, and two walks, he’s just not doing it right now. I’m not giving up completely on him in very deep leagues since the Stuff+ is actually pretty good and we saw plenty of good signs from him between 2021-2022, but you can’t start the guy right now.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Lance Lynn's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 83.2
Brandon Williamson's FC velo (14 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 89.7
Edward Cabrera's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 89.7
Jordan Lyles's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 80.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Cobb's FS usage (48.1%) up 10.6 points
Brandon Williamson's FF usage (41.0%) up 11.0 points
Cody Bradford's SL usage (28.1%) up 15.6 points
Hunter Brown's CU usage (37.4%) up 10.2 points
Jaime Barria's FF usage (41.9%) up 14.6 points
Jameson Taillon's FF usage (42.1%) up 12.6 points
Joe Musgrove's CU usage (31.1%) up 10.9 points
Kutter Crawford's FF usage (57.3%) up 15.3 points
Luis L. Ortiz's SL usage (46.7%) up 16.7 points
Zach Davies's FF usage (23.8%) up 13.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Chase Anderson 4-Seam Fastball: -22.1%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +20.3%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +18.8%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +18.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%
JP Sears Sweeper: -16.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +15.7%
Matt Strahm Cutter: -15.4%
Noah Syndergaard Curveball: +14.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: -14.4%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Shintaro Fujinami Slider: -13.7%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Shintaro Fujinami 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
J.P. France Changeup: +13.0%
Tanner Houck Cutter: -13.0%
Adrian Houser Sinker: +13.0%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +12.9%
Jose Berrios 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Pitchers - Recent
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Colin Rea - 67 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 104 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 70 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
James Paxton - 89 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Griffin Canning - 69 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%
Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 36.7% K%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 36.4% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
James Paxton - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Griffin Canning - 69 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 66 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
James Paxton - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 110 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Zach Eflin - 94 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Jose Berrios - 70 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Bryce Elder - 101 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 93 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Bobby Miller - 67 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Colin Rea - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 6.0 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 30.2 K%, 3.5 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Max Scherzer - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 1.0 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Ryan Walker - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Miles Mikolas - +3.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
George Kirby - +3.1% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.6% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Luis Castillo - +5.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Michael Kopech - +2.5% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.0% CSW%, -7.1 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +3.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Hitters
Jack Suwinski is, once again, “on one”. He is tied with Ohtani for the league lead in homers since 5/26 with 8, more on that streak:
Corey Seager has been doing ridiculous things all year long. He was a very popular breakout pick this year, and he’s overperformed anybody’s wildest expectation for him slashing .357/.411/.629 with a 19% Brl% and a 17% K%. He’s one of the best hitters in the league, good on you for buying high on him in drafts even when that draft stock got pushed up throughout the winter.
Multiple Barrels
Adam Frazier (BAL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christian Yelich (MIL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Corey Seager (TEX) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gary Sanchez (SD) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jack Suwinski (PIT) 4 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jorge Mateo (BAL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Mike Ford (SEA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nolan Jones (COL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Zach Neto (LAA) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Manuel Margot, Yesterday: 111.5 Previous High: 110.4
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corey Seager - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
2. Jack Suwinski - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
3. Mike Ford - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
4. Adam Frazier - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
5. Mike Yastrzemski - 5.0 PA - 36.5 JA Points
6. Kyle Farmer - 4.0 PA - 34.5 JA Points
7. Tommy Edman - 4.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
8. Brandon Nimmo - 5.0 PA - 33.5 JA Points
9. David Peralta - 2.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
10. Manuel Margot - 3.0 PA - 28.5 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Corey Seager (TEX) - 158.0 PA - 44.43 JA Points
2. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 301.0 PA - 17.61 JA Points
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 299.0 PA - 15.65 JA Points
4. Josh Naylor (CLE) - 224.0 PA - 7.59 JA Points
5. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 209.0 PA - 7.56 JA Points
6. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 304.0 PA - 1.71 JA Points
7. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 293.0 PA - 1.43 JA Points
8. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 269.0 PA - -6.54 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 249.0 PA - -6.83 JA Points
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 284.0 PA - -7.82 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Juan Soto (SD) - 115.3mph - single
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 114.4mph - nan
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 112.5mph - double
Joey Gallo (MIN) - 112.5mph - double
Christian Walker (ARI) - 112.1mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.6mph - home_run
Manuel Margot (TB) - 111.5mph - single
Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 111.3mph - home_run
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 111.1mph - field_out
Jonah Heim (TEX) - 110.3mph - double
Hitters - Recent Stats & Improvers
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Tommy Edman - 70 PA, 0.177 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.128 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.342 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.094 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 77 PA, 0.284 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, 0.093 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 68 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Trent Grisham - 59 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 81 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Pavin Smith - 69 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.438 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Matt Olson - 80 PA, 0.333 wOBA, 0.394 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Anthony Rizzo - 58 PA, 0.155 wOBA, 0.213 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Bottom 10
Corbin Carroll - 79 PA, 0.519 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.165 Diff
Will Brennan - 58 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Bryson Stott - 77 PA, 0.384 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Willi Castro - 59 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Jeremy Pena - 67 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 67 PA, 0.454 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 0.463 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Jorge Soler - 72 PA, 0.444 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Orlando Arcia - 70 PA, 0.348 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.072 Diff
Spencer Steer - 84 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Trent Grisham - 59 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Gunnar Henderson - 53 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 86 PA, 56 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Garrett Cooper - 48 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Drew Waters - 49 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 50 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Corey Seager - 84 PA, 65 BIP, 12 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 53 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 78 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 84 PA, 0.466 xwOBA
Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 0.459 xwOBA
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 83 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Ryan McMahon - 89 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 81 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Gunnar Henderson - 53 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Donovan Solano - 60 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Wander Franco - 73 PA, 117 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 144 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 81 PA, 173 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jose Caballero - 52 PA, 65 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Kevin Newman - 71 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Zack Short - 48 PA, 85 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Willie Calhoun - 49 PA, 67 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Whit Merrifield - 72 PA, 117 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 75 PA, 125 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 127 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Corey Julks - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Michael A. Taylor - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ramon Laureano - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nolan Jones - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Christian Yelich - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 17 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 13 Attempts (9 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Wander Franco - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Christian Yelich - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Jake Fraley - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Josh Lowe - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Starling Marte - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jose Caballero - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Taylor Walls - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
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