MLB Daily Notes - June 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I love country music. I didn’t like it until like 2017 when I was in Florida with my wife and we rented a car and the radio station that came on was country and we didn’t want to mess with it. So driving around that week we just listened to country music and I was like wait… there’s this whole genre of music where people sing about actual things and talk about God and stuff? It blew my mind.
So ever since then I’ve mostly listened to country music, as well as some detours back into 2004-2010 pop punk for nostalgia purposes.
The one thing that really tickles me is seeing the progression of some of these song writers. Their first big albums are usually typical country stuff - drinking whiskey, hunting, enjoying life, falling in love, heart break, etc. But then as you listen to them through the years, a lot of times you’ll listen to them as they get married and have kids. And the songs start changing. All of the sudden they’re singing love songs to their wives and about raising kids and all of this stuff. And since that’s where I’m at in life with a wife I am crazy about and three young kids, that stuff really gets to me.
I mean I even feel emotional sometimes when listening to it - can you believe that? Most of the time that only happens when I’m like four miles into a five mile run and my body is starting to go into whatever kind of survival mode that happens on those runs, but when it happens it’s really something.
So today, Luke Combs drops and album called Father’s and Sons. I didn’t even know this was coming, so I’m really excited to see it and to listen to it.
The first song I ever heard from Luke Combs was that “When It Rains it Pours”, which was about him acting like a drunk idiot and then getting dumped because of it, but then being happy because it actually kind of worked out for him. Catchy song, pretty lame message. But now here he is with two kids of his own and just a completely changed songwriter. I’m actually not sure he wrote these songs, but it makes me feel better to think he did. So don’t spoil it for me.
It is Friday, so that means there are a lot of games ahead but not so many in the rear view mirror. There was a little more action than typical for a Thursday, so let’s hit some of the highlights.
Garrett Crochet
The guy got 23 whiffs yesterday and raised his season strikeout rate to 35.7% in 82.1 innings. Crochet is clearly the biggest surprise of the season so far and it’s all the more interesting with him being on a team that is drawing completely dead. Crochet is very likely to be on the move, and it might even happen sooner rather than later so the White Sox can get a big return for him before any potential injuries or slow downs would happen.
What was most crazy about last night is that Crochet did that while throwing only fastballs.
Prior to last night he was still mostly fastballs, but he was throwing the slider 15% of the time and the changeup 7% of the time, but he said forget that these are the Mariners, and he just ripped 101 fastballs and one changeup - which got hit over the fence.
His 16 whiffs on the four-seamer were the third-most by a single pitch type of the season:
The 24 overall whiffs were tied for second-most with Flaherty on 4/30 and Cease on 5/8, and second to only Jared Jones’ 25 on 4/22.
Ridiculous stuff, and Crochet is just seemingly getting better and better, and nobody saw it coming until the regular season began.
The lesson is reinforced, you should always be reserving a spot or two on your fantasy roster for those early-season SP pickups. This year the best strategy would have been to grab 2-3 aces early and then build the rest of your pitching staff off of the waiver wire based on what was happening in the first few weeks. I’m not sure that’s good advice for the future, but it certainly would have worked marvelously in 2024.
Reynaldo Lopez
What I wrote yesterday in Starts & Sits:
The Orioles are now third in the league in OPS and have homered 29 times in the last two weeks, so it’s a pretty brutal spot for Lopez to be in - we probably see some of that regression hit today. You can bench him if you’re in good shape this week in pitching.
So I’m a douchebag.
6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB, 19.8% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%
It was his second-best SwStr% of the season, and really things are getting better and better for him as this year progresses.
He has 23 strikeouts in his last three starts, and those are his three of his five best efforts of the season.
His ERA is now down to a ridiculous 1.69 with a 1.04 WHIP and an improving 17.7% K-BB%. It’s still true that he’s been very lucky to not have given up more homers than he has.
HR/FB 2024, 30 Fly Balls Minimum
Albert Suarez 2.4%
Luis L. Ortiz 2.9%
Bryan Woo 3.2%
Reynaldo Lopez 4.0%
Trevor Williams 4.8%
Tanner Houck 4.8%
Sixto Sanchez 5.9%
Mitch Spence 6.1%
Matt Manning 6.2%
Logan Webb 6.4%
The good news is that his K-BB% has been heading in the right direction, he’s at 21.4% over the last five starts and 27.5% over the last three, so there’s a very good chance he survives the home run regression as still a clear top 30 SP. I’d still be looking to sell high on him though.
He and Crochet both have this problem where they’ve already exceeded their innings totals from last year. That might matter less than we like to think, especially with Lopez who is 30 years old. As long as he’s healthy, you would not think the Braves will want to hold him back since he’s clearly not a long-term answer for them in their rotation. He should be fine to get to 170 innings as long as he can physically handle it. That’s a whole different question, and a good one, but the point I am making is that I don’t think the organization is going to be the thing to stop him from getting there.
Taj Bradley
He struck out 11 batters yesterday in an elite start
7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 R, 11 K, 2 BB, 16.3% SwStr%
He now has a 15.2% SwStr% and 35% Ball% on the year with a 31.6% K% and 7.6% BB%
His stuff is really electric. I don’t have the pitch modeling numbers from yesterday yet, but before that start he had a 109 Stuff+ and 102.4+ Pitching+ and things had been on the upswing:
He’s very good. So far, his four-seamer has been drilled to the tune of a .449 xwOBA and 19.1% Brl%. That’s both bad news (he’s clearly missed spots with it often) and good news (those numbers cannot possibly stay anywhere near that high, especially when you see the 14.8% SwStr%).
I would view it more as good news, because he’s been able to put up this nice season so far while hitters have missed very few opportunities to crush a fastball, and his secondary stuff has been insanely good. He’s a potential top 25 SP and I’m buying-high on him if possible.
Brandon Pfaadt
I un-douched myself with the Pfaadt writeup yesterday in that same piece where I took the huge L on Reynaldo:
It should be time that he really gets going, and this start against the Angels is my predicted catalyst.
So I’m even on the day, right?
6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 3 BB, 14.6% SwStr%, 51.5% Strike%
For the season:
We certainly want to see a SwStr% higher than 12.1%, but the 33% Ball% and 48% Strike% are good, and we know he has very good command of all of his pitches, so it should be a nice rest of the season for Pfaadt. He doesn’t really threaten to be a top-20 guy or anything like that, but a solid SP4 for your fantasy team is what I would guess.
Alec Marsh
It was one of THOSE starts for Marsh, and against the Yankees!
7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 7 K, 2 BB, 12.5% SwStr%, 49% Strike%
For the last few years we have seen him have these spike starts that get us excited, but so far they have not been consistent.
As always, the right thing to do is just to consider the full sample. For the year he’s at a 16% K-BB% (22.9% K%, 6.9% BB) with an 11.4% SwStr% and 47% Strike%.
That is basically a league-average pitcher.
Some league average pitchers get to league average by being average all the time, some league average pitchers get there by being really good half the times and really bad half the time. That’s kind of the problem with averages.
On that note, I have this tab on the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard called “Scoring Distributions”. What it does is measure the average, max, min, and standard deviations of fantasy point scoring for every starter. If we look at the highest standard deviations for pitchers with 10+ starts:
Here is what a 16 point standard deviation looks like:
And the lowest standard deviations shown here:
We tend to hear the word consistent with a positive connotation. And I get that, humans don’t like the unknown, we like to know what to expect. But in terms of measuring performance, consistent is a neutral word.
Andrew Abbott has been extremely consistent, but he’s been consistently someone you don’t want to start on your fantasy team.
What we can do is filter out everybody below an 18-point average, and then see who the most consistently good pitchers have been.
I did not expect to see Hunter Greene and Reynaldo Lopez as consistently good pitchers this year. I figured Greene would be good, but not consistently so. I figured he’d have a bunch of 35+ point games with a bunch of sub-15 point games to make for a pretty good average, but that goes to show you how hard it is predict the future!
On the board tonight we have some interesting and fun spots
Kyle Bradish vs. PHI
Simeon Woods Richardson vs. OAK
Cole Ragans vs. LAD
Luis Ortiz vs. COL
Hunter Brown vs. DET
We also have Max Meyer as a probable starter, but as far as I can see that’s never even been officially announced. The Marlins are still showing TBD, but all of the pontifications say he’s starting tonight.
True to what the Marlins said they’d do with him, he’s pitched every seven days since being demoted:
3…10…17…24…31…7…
And then 7+7 makes 14, so Meyer is pitching SOMEWHERE today. He’s averaged less than 70 pitches per outing down there as well, so it’s extremely unlikely he gets through six innings tonight, so he’s not a great fantasy player even if he is back. What a weird situation.
What other career is there out there where the best people in the world at doing the job are told not to do the job as often as they are capable of doing it?
“You’re extremely good at throwing baseballs so we’re going to pay you a bunch of money to throw baseballs BUT WE DON’T WANT YOU TO THROW BASEBALLS TOO MUCH OR TOO OFTEN”
Alec Burleson is having an interesting season on the hitter side:
216 PA, .273/.306/.439, .745 OPS, 9 HR, 14.4% K%, 6.3% Brl%, 40% GB%
He gets a lot of balls into the air with that low strikeout rate and low GB%. He doesn’t hit the ball extremely hard, but he’s above average on that front with a 105.4 90th-percentile EV on line drives and fly balls. You’re looking for about 105 in that category to believe in a guy that can really rack up the homers, so he’s gotten there.
Burleson is certainly an underrated bat and he could have have a pretty nice rest of the year at the dish, and he’s widely available in fantasy leagues, so there’s your hitter add of the day. Remember when I was remembering to do that every day like I said I would and then completely stopped after like 4 days? Sweet.
More on the 90th-percentile EV on line drives and fly balls. I need a name for that, that’s way too long of a descriptor for the stat… I’ll call it like AIR EV 90… even though that’s really dumb.
There are only 13 hitters with 50 air balls and an EV90 above 110:
There are a ton of guys between 110 and 105. So I’ll just hit some of the more surprising/interesting names I’m seeing here:
Carlos Correa 109.1
Michael Harris II 108.2
MJ Melendez 108.2
Jarren Duran 107.8
Brandon Nimmo 107.8
Christopher Morel 107.7
Starling Marte 107.5
Riley Greene 107.3
Ian Happ 107.3
Lane Thomas 107.3
Adam Duvall 107.3
Jon Singleton 107.0
Wilyer Abreu 106.8
Elehuris Montero 106.7
Jake Bauers 106.5
You can check out the interactive table here.
And holy cow it’s freaking 11:15… I have to go!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet
2. Reynaldo Lopez
3. Taj Bradley
4. Justin Steele
5. Joe Ryan
6. Brandon Pfaadt
7. Luis Medina
8. Lance Lynn
9. Alec Marsh
10. Tanner Houck
11. Mitch Keller
12. Roddery Munoz
13. Cole Irvin
14. Emerson Hancock
15. Nestor Cortes
16. Michael Lorenzen
17. Patrick Corbin
18. Luis Severino
19. Griffin Canning
20. Casey Mize
21. Aaron Nola
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Taj Bradley (vs. CHC): 38.75 Points
2. Garrett Crochet (vs. SEA): 37.35 Points
3. Reynaldo Lopez (vs. BAL): 31.7 Points
4. Alec Marsh (vs. NYY): 27.95 Points
5. Brandon Pfaadt (vs. LAA): 26.1 Points
6. Joe Ryan (vs. OAK): 23.35 Points
7. Roddery Munoz (vs. NYM): 22.3 Points
8. Justin Steele (vs. TB): 21.1 Points
9. Michael Lorenzen (vs. LAD): 18.75 Points
10. Cole Irvin (vs. ATL): 16.76 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 24 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 18 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
3. Taj Bradley (TB): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
4. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 15 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Joe Ryan (MIN): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Justin Steele (CHC): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Lance Lynn (STL): 12 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
8. Alec Marsh (KC): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Luis Medina (OAK): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
10. Michael Lorenzen (TEX): 11 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 54.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
2. Cole Irvin (BAL): 53.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
3. Justin Steele (CHC): 52.7 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
4. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 51.5 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
5. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 50.5 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
6. Tanner Houck (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
7. Taj Bradley (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
8. Alec Marsh (KC): 49.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
9. Joe Ryan (MIN): 48.4 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
10. Mitch Keller (PIT): 47.9 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%
11. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 46.8 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
12. Casey Mize (DET): 46.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
13. Luis Medina (OAK): 46.1 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
14. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 45.7 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%
15. Ryan Yarbrough (LAD): 45.2 Strike%, 43.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Emerson Hancock: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
2. Nestor Cortes: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
3. Joe Ryan: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
4. Michael Lorenzen: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
5. Alec Marsh: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
6. Casey Mize: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
7. Roddery Munoz: 81 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.76 POUT
8. Garrett Crochet: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
9. Taj Bradley: 104 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.95 POUT
10. Reynaldo Lopez: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's FS velo (15 pitches) UP 3.8mph to 89.1
Aaron Nola's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 89.2
Luis Severino's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 87.4
Mitch Keller's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 92.0
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (14 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 79.1
Joe Ryan's FF velo (59 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.5
Brandon Pfaadt's ST velo (31 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.6
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.9
Emerson Hancock's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -3.3mph to 81.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's SI usage (32.2%) up 12.7 points
Brandon Pfaadt's SI usage (24.3%) up 10.3 points
Cole Irvin's SL usage (13.0%) up 10.8 points
Emerson Hancock's SI usage (59.8%) up 28.7 points
Lance Lynn's FF usage (67.1%) up 18.6 points
Luis Medina's SL usage (40.2%) up 16.1 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (35.9%) up 24.6 points
Michael Lorenzen's FC usage (21.1%) up 16.2 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (16.0%) up 11.1 points
Reynaldo Lopez's CH usage (15.4%) up 10.8 points
Roddery Munoz's FC usage (40.7%) up 11.1 points
Ryan Yarbrough's FC usage (33.9%) up 12.3 points
Ryan Yarbrough's FF usage (19.4%) up 13.7 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (36.5%) up 28.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.9%
Luis Severino Sinker: +19.6%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -17.1%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -17.0%
Albert Suarez 4-Seam Fastball: -15.9%
Garrett Crochet 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.9%
Trevor Rogers Sinker: +13.8%
Nick Nastrini Slider: +13.7%
Simeon Woods Richardson Slider: +13.7%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
George Kirby Slider: +13.4%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -13.0%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.9%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.9%
Marcus Stroman Cutter: +12.8%
Sean Manaea Sinker: +12.8%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 96 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 74 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 96 TBF, 43.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 38.7% K%
Sonny Gray - 87 TBF, 36.8% K%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 36.8% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Tanner Bibee - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Michael King - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Taj Bradley - 87 TBF, 31.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 96 TBF, 37.5% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Ryan Pepiot - 71 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 87 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Michael King - 87 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 67.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 78 TBF, 63.0% GB%
David Peterson - 74 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 103 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Erick Fedde - 100 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 73 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Jose Soriano - 100 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Sonny Gray - 87 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Ben Brown - 61 TBF, 31.1 K%, 6.6 BB%, 43.2% GB%
Chris Sale - 75 TBF, 29.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 48.0% GB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 7.1 BB%, 67.5% GB%
Jake Irvin - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 44.3% GB%
Max Fried - 78 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.1 BB%, 48.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 36.8 K%, 2.9 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 59 TBF, 35.6 K%, 1.7 BB%, 62.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 30.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 54.2% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.5% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Reid Detmers: 9.94 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Slade Cecconi: 9.0 ERA, 4.6 SIERA
Martin Perez: 8.76 ERA, 4.97 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 6.98 ERA, 3.29 SIERA
Blake Snell: 7.5 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 7.31 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Reese Olson: 6.85 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery: 7.98 ERA, 5.16 SIERA
Bailey Ober: 7.6 ERA, 4.81 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 6.75 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Luckiest
Albert Suarez: 1.25 ERA, 4.83 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 2.2 ERA, 5.57 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 1.95 ERA, 5.29 SIERA
Michael Lorenzen: 1.8 ERA, 4.72 SIERA
Cody Poteet: 2.4 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 1.35 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Jon Gray: 1.62 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Zack Wheeler: 1.57 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.23 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
Dakota Hudson: 3.14 ERA, 5.34 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tanner Houck - +2.2% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.3% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +2.3% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.4% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Jake Irvin - +3.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Ronel Blanco - +2.2% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +4.8% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
George Kirby - +2.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Gavin Stone - +2.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Hunter Brown - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - +6.8% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +2.6% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
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