MLB Daily Notes - June 16th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Two full weeks away, 13+ hours and 800 miles of driving home yesterday, and here I am - back where I belong. And it’s Father’s Day, which means I’m more important today.
Not much time to write this morning with church and the kids being all over the place excited to be home. I’ve already lost a game of Trouble to my daughter. We don’t play the rule where if you land on the same spot as someone else you kick them back to base, she’s not quite ready for that hurt yet, so we just skip that space. I asked where mine goes when I landed on her same space the first time and she put my piece behind hers, costing me a space. And then the next turn she landed on my space, and she put her piece ahead of mine. A brutal and unfair contradiction! But at one point I rolled 5 out of 6 ones, so I never had much of a chance.
DJ Herz had 13 strikeouts. I wouldn’t have even heard of this guy if I didn’t have to add his name to the mappings table a few weeks ago. His real name is Davidjohn. I assumed that was a typo when I saw it come in from one of my data sources, but wikipedia agrees:
I guess it might still be a typo, but maybe it happened on his birth certificate. He had 21 whiffs yesterday, here’s the season pitch mix:
The pitch modeling stuff looks pretty bad actually (96 Stuff+, 95 Loc+), but that doesn’t include yesterday’s start. You can see the really great SwStr% on the four-seamer there. That is not something that is anywhere near sustainable, especially for a 93mph daddy - but whatever at least it’s high and not low in this small sample size. I’m not jumping out of my pants to add the guy, but it 21 whiffs is nothing to sneeze at - it’s not like just any dude can go out there and do that even once a season.
Keaton Winn put up another high SwStr% of 18.7%, but gave up three more runs.
6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB
His pitch mix from these last two starts:
You can see the splitter has been absolutely ridiculous with a 35.6% SwStr%. The four-seamer has been pretty good as well but the three homers given up and lots of bad luck have left him without a truly good start in quite a while. I’m still pretty interested in adding him in deep leagues though, I think there could really be something there.
Another bad start for Jared Jones:
4.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 6 K, 4 BB, 11.8% SwStr%
He now has just a 12.6% SwStr% and 38% Ball% in the last month (five starts). Before those five starts he sat with a 20.9% SwStr% and 28% Ball%, so things have gone south in a really alarming way. No pitch modeling numbers for him yesterday yet, but here’s the trend from before that:
The velocity is still fine and his stuff is still quite good even if it’s not at the insanely elite levels we saw early on, so I don’t think he’s all of the sudden a bad pitcher.
I think this goes to show the volatility of command. On May 14th he sat with a league-leading 136 Stuff+ and he paired that with a crazy high 106 Location+ as well. He was never a great command pitcher in the minors, so it was fair to suspect that he would regress on that, and sure enough he’s about a league-average location pitcher over the last month.
Hopefully I remember, but I want to study the start-over-start Location+ stuff to see what kind of consistency there really is there. Maybe what I’ll do is fill out my own request form to remind myself for later this week.
Anyways, the time to sell Jones has passed, and at this point I’d be holding on and starting him. I think he’ll still be quite good, and he’ll probably have some stretches again where the command is spot on and he is out there pooping on dudes again - don’t panic too hard.
Heliot Ramos hit two more homers so he just hasn’t stopped.
But he will slow eventually, the 29% K% and 49% GB% tell you that. If we look at all hitters above a 27% K% and 47% GB%, we find the aggregate slash line of the bunch is .234/.289/.372 with a .662 OPS and a 5.7% Brl/PA.
Ramos leads the pack in every element of that slash line, and he’s second in Brl/PA only to Oneil Cruz.
So you should be selling Ramos if possible. I don’t mean dump him for any return you can possibly get, but I think it’s pretty certain you can find someone in your league to give you a pretty nice return for him. I would expect heavy regression very soon.
Hunter Goodman is back if you’re looking for a Coors bat. This year in AAA:
.298/.352/.690, 1.042 OPS, 21% K%
He has just a .696 OPS in the Majors so far this year with a 27% K%, so he’s been back longer than I thought (73 PA), but for a super deep league where you’re desperate, you can maybe stream him in next week as the Rockies are in Coors all week.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto got hurt, so if I’m breaking that news to you - I’m sorry. I’m sure you’ll get over it soon, but it’s okay to take seven seconds to be sad about it.
That’s it and that’s all, I’m off to church with the kids. Happy Father’s Day to all the good dads out there who are willing to sacrifice, deny themselves, and work hard for their families.
And if you’re a father and you’re not doing those things - shape up, your kids need you.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. DJ Herz
2. Charlie Morton
3. George Kirby
4. Keaton Winn
5. Grayson Rodriguez
6. Carlos Rodon
7. Shota Imanaga
8. Ty Blach
9. Nathan Eovaldi
10. Cooper Criswell
11. Jack Flaherty
12. Andre Pallante
13. Jared Jones
14. Andrew Abbott
15. Patrick Sandoval
16. Carlos Carrasco
17. Jose Quintana
18. Ryan Pepiot
19. Erick Fedde
20. Adam Mazur
21. Taijuan Walker
22. Seth Lugo
23. Trevor Rogers
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. DJ Herz (vs. MIA): 42.9 Points
2. Charlie Morton (vs. TB): 28.5 Points
3. Shota Imanaga (vs. STL): 27.35 Points
4. George Kirby (vs. TEX): 26.5 Points
5. Jose Quintana (vs. SD): 25.1 Points
6. Bryse Wilson (vs. CIN): 24.99 Points
7. Jack Flaherty (vs. HOU): 24.85 Points
8. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. PHI): 22.95 Points
9. Erick Fedde (vs. ARI): 20.7 Points
10. Ty Blach (vs. PIT): 17.96 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 22 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. DJ Herz (WSH): 21 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 18 Whiffs (109 Pitches)
4. Keaton Winn (SF): 17 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
5. George Kirby (SEA): 16 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
7. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
8. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 11 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
9. Nick Hernandez (HOU): 10 Whiffs (55 Pitches)
10. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 10 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. DJ Herz (WSH): 60.7 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
2. Nick Hernandez (HOU): 54.5 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
3. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 52.5 Strike%, 26.3 Ball%
4. Charlie Morton (ATL): 52.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
5. Cooper Criswell (BOS): 52.3 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
6. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 52.0 Strike%, 38.7 Ball%
7. Andre Pallante (STL): 50.8 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
8. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 50.0 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
9. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 48.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
10. Jared Jones (PIT): 48.2 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
11. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 47.7 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
12. Ty Blach (COL): 47.4 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
13. Jack Flaherty (DET): 46.6 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
14. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 45.7 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
15. Bowden Francis (TOR): 45.6 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ty Blach: 78 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.59 POUT
2. Bryse Wilson: 74 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.62 POUT
3. Trevor Rogers: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
4. DJ Herz: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
5. Grayson Rodriguez: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
6. Jack Flaherty: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
7. Jose Quintana: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
8. Shota Imanaga: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
9. Nick Hernandez: 55 Pitches, 11 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. George Kirby: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 4.4mph to 88.3
Mason Englert's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 3.5mph to 88.3
Cooper Criswell's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 87.4
Mason Englert's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.5
Ryan Pepiot's CH velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.7
Andrew Abbott's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.3
Taijuan Walker's SI velo (38 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.4
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 82.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bowden Francis's FS usage (22.1%) up 16.8 points
Cooper Criswell's ST usage (45.5%) up 16.5 points
Grayson Rodriguez's CU usage (26.3%) up 15.1 points
Mason Englert's SI usage (23.1%) up 20.7 points
Nick Hernandez's FF usage (40.0%) up 10.9 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (23.5%) up 10.6 points
Seth Lugo's FC usage (17.3%) up 14.4 points
Taijuan Walker's SI usage (41.3%) up 17.2 points
Taijuan Walker's ST usage (22.8%) up 16.2 points
Tommy Henry's CU usage (40.0%) up 17.5 points
Trevor Rogers's SL usage (35.5%) up 15.5 points
Ty Blach's CH usage (37.2%) up 14.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.9%
Luis Severino Sinker: +19.6%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Albert Suarez 4-Seam Fastball: -15.9%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Carlos Carrasco 4-Seam Fastball: +14.4%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.3%
Garrett Crochet 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -13.7%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +13.2%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -13.0%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.9%
Marcus Stroman Cutter: +12.8%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +12.4%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 96 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 78 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 97 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 66 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 102 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Hunter Brown - 95 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
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