MLB Daily Notes - June 19th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Two new resources came out this weekend!
First, automated SP rankings. I wanted to overhaul the ranking systems I had going, so I have done it. You’ll no longer see the “JA Score” stuff here because that scoring system sucks. It was something I came up with quickly early last year because I thought it would be cool to have my own system for giving hitters one-number scores, but I can do a lot better. So you now have access to the Excel sheet with the ranks. It does it three ways:
Full Season SP Only
Full Season All Pitchers
Last 30 Days SPs
Last 60 Days SPs
It uses Strike%, SwStr%, Ball%, Stuff+, and xwOBACON to do the ranking - and it weighs them all differently based on what I thought was right.
The second sheet is one that is tracking everybody’s innings from this year and comparing it to what they threw in 2021 and 2022. A few rookies shown here as an example:
So Woo threw just 52.1 innings in 2022 and he’s already exceeded that this year with 56.1. That would be a pretty big red flag that he’ll be slowed down soon.
Check those things out. The links are at the bottom of this post and on the resources glossary page.
“The Week Ahead” came out yesterday as well, read that here. Let me know if you can think of anything else cool to add to it.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Lance Lynn heard about me swearing him off for the year and just went bonkers-nuts. His 16 strikeouts were 3 more than anybody else has mustered this year. That came on a 29% SwStr%.
Here’s the breakdown by pitch type:
What am I to say? A 20%+ SwStr% on three different fastball types. This is just a pitcher pitching very well and benefiting from a bunch of variance. You don’t strike out 16 hitters without a little luck! Does it change the outlook on him for the rest of the season? I mean, probably. It’s not like this is completely and totally unprecedented, he’s been a great strikeout pitcher in the past - and this is a reminder that he can still do that. I’m not necessarily kicking myself for dropping him yet, because the numbers had been really awful in his starts leading up this bomb. So I don’t know, screw this guy!
Brayan Bello has been really good lately and I think we’re watching him take a big step forward. He brought the sinker back last night, to my great pleasure, and that resulted in a sweet, sweet 15.7% SwStr% and a 71% GB%.
That’s amazing. The pitch mix is so good. He can use the sinker to get strikes (although he didn’t get many strikes with it yesterday), the four-seamer to get some whiffs, and the changeup to really wipe away hitters. I don’t know why he ditched the sinker for a few starts there, but it’s back now, and I don’t know why it wouldn’t stay back.
I think we’ll have a post this week analyzing more of this pitcher data at a high-level, so I’ll get into K-BB%, Strike%, Ball%, GB%, etc. and how they all translate into ERA on average - so that’ll tell us more about how important a high GB% can be - be on the lookout for that soon.
Bryce Miller also had a good one with seven strikeouts on the opposite side of Lynn. And hey, he threw a few more sliders! The FB% came under 60% for the third time and the slider peaked at 31%.
The problem is that the slider wasn’t particularly good. Just a 3.8% SwStr% yesterday on a 38% Strike%. For the year the slider has a 5.2% SwStr% and a 39% Strike%, so that’s not going to work very well, it would seem. Good to see him messing around with a lower FB usage though. The four-seamer is good with a 13% SwStr% and a 54% Strike%, but it’s still really tough to pitch in the Majors being so reliant on a single pitch.
We probably need to talk about Louie Varland. He got beat up by the Tigers yesterday and did this:
Good cutter SwStr% but the two homers given up on it, and the four-seamer was not working very well at all. Over his last month of pitching, it looks like this:
So a bad SwStr% and no real standout pitch with a pretty high FB%. It’s a shame. I was duped by his really good start, but I guess he was pitching over his head there - or maybe the league has just adjusted to him. I’d still take him for dynasty leagues, but for redraft, I think we can definitely cut him given that he’ll likely be out of the rotation soon with Maeda returning.
Chris Bassitt was terrible, again. He’s now gone five straight starts with a SwStr% under 12%, and this last one was crazy with just one whiff on 73 pitches.
He has just an 8.9% SwStr% and a 45% Strike% with a 45% GB% over his last five starts while giving up a .331 xwOBA and an 11% Brl%. There’s no real reason to trust Bassitt, but he will probably have some good starts as we move forward. He has always been a guy that relies on command more than others, which makes him susceptible to ups and downs. We can’t let the downs steer us away from the ups in deeper leagues.
If you still had any hopes for 2023 Matthew Liberatore, just stop it.
I didn’t get the hype for him early on with his based on his poor performance in 2023, and it hasn’t gotten any better this year. An 8.3% SwStr% and a 41% Strike% - we can pretty much just stop there. I don’t think anybody is starting this guy at this point, so let’s move on!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn (vs. SEA): 38.15 Points
2. Brayan Bello (vs. NYY): 29.55 Points
3. Bryce Miller (vs. CWS): 27.35 Points
4. Freddy Peralta (vs. PIT): 24.5 Points
5. Dean Kremer (vs. CHC): 24.25 Points
6. Zack Wheeler (vs. OAK): 20.7 Points
7. Hogan Harris (vs. PHI): 20.5 Points
8. Charlie Morton (vs. COL): 20.45 Points
9. Jesus Luzardo (vs. WSH): 19.9 Points
10. Logan Webb (vs. LAD): 19.75 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn (CWS): 33 Whiffs (114 Pitches)
2. Charlie Morton (ATL): 21 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
4. Brayan Bello (BOS): 16 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
5. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 16 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 16 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
7. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
8. Hogan Harris (OAK): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Joe Musgrove (SD): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 11 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn (CWS): 54.4 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
2. Bryce Miller (SEA): 54.1 Strike%, 23.5 Ball%
3. Luis Severino (NYY): 50.6 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
4. Louie Varland (MIN): 50.5 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
5. Dean Kremer (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
6. Charlie Morton (ATL): 49.0 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
7. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 48.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 48.4 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
9. Hogan Harris (OAK): 47.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
10. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT): 47.6 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
11. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 47.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
12. Joe Musgrove (SD): 47.1 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
13. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 46.7 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
14. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 45.9 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
15. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 45.7 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
Pitcher / Pitch Trends
I don’t see anything here worthy of further comment, so here you go.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Louie Varland's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 4.6mph to 89.6
Bryce Miller's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 87.1
Jon Gray's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 87.6
Clarke Schmidt's SI velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.9
Ronel Blanco's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 84.5
Zack Wheeler's ST velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.0
Hogan Harris's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.6
Zack Greinke's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 71.2
Hogan Harris's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 75.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bryce Miller's SL usage (30.6%) up 16.8 points
Carlos Carrasco's FF usage (49.2%) up 14.9 points
Chase Anderson's SI usage (22.8%) up 10.1 points
Jameson Taillon's CH usage (13.6%) up 10.5 points
Jesus Luzardo's CH usage (37.1%) up 18.2 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (51.8%) up 17.4 points
Luis Severino's FF usage (64.2%) up 13.5 points
Matthew Liberatore's FF usage (51.9%) up 10.7 points
Matthew Liberatore's CU usage (33.8%) up 10.2 points
Ronel Blanco's CH usage (22.3%) up 19.5 points
Tyler Anderson's FF usage (45.3%) up 10.1 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (25.6%) up 14.9 points
Zach Davies's FF usage (35.1%) up 22.6 points
Zack Wheeler's SL usage (29.0%) up 12.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Yu Darvish Sinker: +22.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +18.4%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.0%
Austin Gomber Slider: +17.8%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +15.7%
Zach Davies Sinker: -15.4%
Matt Strahm Cutter: -15.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +15.3%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -15.0%
Chase Anderson 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.9%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +13.9%
Shintaro Fujinami Slider: -13.7%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +13.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -13.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +13.3%
Shintaro Fujinami 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +12.9%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Braxton Garrett Cutter: +12.6%
Reid Detmers Curveball: +12.6%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Kyle Bradish 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: -12.2%
Pitchers - Recent
If we look at guys earning a ton of strikes since 5/29, the top 3 are Bryan Woo (56.2%), George Kirby (54.9%), and Garrett Whitlock (54.5%). Woo and Whitlock are pretty interesting names. We already mentioned that Woo isn’t going to be able to throw a ton more innings this year, and I’ve been all over Whitlock recently on these pages too - so you know, but those guys are all pitching really well and should be started in fantasy every time they take the mound.
Number five on that list is Blake Snell, so watch out for that. If Snell is throwing strikes, his opponents are in trouble. Over his last three, he has a 54.4% Strike% and a 19.3% SwStr% - ace stuff! But we know better than to believe he’ll be an ace for the rest of the year, some bad starts will certainly come - but I’ve been saying all year that you should just start this guy every time so you get the good with the bad.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 75 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 76 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
James Paxton - 73 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 74 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 42.4% K%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 36.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Taj Bradley - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
James Paxton - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 76 TBF, 31.6% K%
Michael Kopech - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
James Paxton - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 67 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tyler Wells - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 107 TBF, 63.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 62.2% GB%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 71 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 93 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Bryce Elder - 97 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 107 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Brayan Bello - 100 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 73 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 36.6 K%, 3.7 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 79 TBF, 29.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, 52.9% GB%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 61.2% GB%
James Paxton - 73 TBF, 34.2 K%, 5.5 BB%, 43.2% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Matthew Boyd - 90 TBF, 27.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Max Scherzer - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.4 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.6 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Zac Gallen - +2.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.4% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Blake Snell - +4.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.7% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.7% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.4% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
George Kirby - +5.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +2.5% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Mike Clevinger - +6.7% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Nick Martinez - +2.9% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Jakob Junis - +3.0% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Hitters - Yesterday
Christian Yelich’s ground ball rate is at 53%, its lowest point of the year. In June he has a 51% GB% but a 21% Brl% - so he is not missing any chances to hit a fly ball very hard. The 61% Hard% is elite this month and he has a .979 OPS to show for it. He’s been very good.
Francisco Lindor had a two-barrel game and now has a .331 xwOBA for the year, ahead of his .320 actual wOBA (wOBA figures might not exactly match other sites as I might be calculating it differently). Over his last month he has a .382 xwOBA and a .312 actual wOBA - a huge differential that trails only three other hitters.
Multiple Barrels
Christian Yelich (MIL) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Corey Seager (TEX) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Eddie Rosario (ATL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 8 PA, 14 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Jonathan India (CIN) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Lane Thomas (WSH) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nolan Arenado (STL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan McMahon (COL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Ryan McKenna, Yesterday: 110.4 Previous High: 109.1
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 117.1mph - home_run
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 112.7mph - home_run
Tommy Pham (NYM) - 112.2mph - field_out
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 111.9mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.8mph - field_out
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.8mph - double
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.8mph - nan
Matt Olson (ATL) - 111.2mph - double
Seth Brown (OAK) - 111.0mph - nan
Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 110.9mph - double
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