MLB Daily Notes - June 19th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Spencer Schwellenbach
6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 7 K, 2 BB, 20.2% SwStr%, 53.9% Strike%
This was an incredibly impressive start for Schwellenbach, who has been interesting ever since joining the rotation even without the great results.
Yesterday he dominated with the cutter, posting a 30.4% SwStr% on 23 offerings. The four-seamer also earned a 54% Strike%, and he posted high SwStr% on the slider (19%) and curveball (27%) as well.
The season pitch mix data:
That’s a ton of arrows in the quiver, you rarely see anybody with seven different pitches, although it’s hard to really count the sinker and splitter with their sub-3% usage.
The sample is small, so it’s hard to make any judgements on the kid. The 8.3% SwStr% on the four-seamer is bad, but it’s still earned strikes and he also has this cutter that has worked very well on 73 pitches. And then the slider and curveball have earned strikes at a high rate as well.
Overall the 15.1% SwStr% and 29% Ball% are very appealing, and I would be adding this guy in deeper leagues. Prior to yesterday’s start he sat with a 99 Stuff+ but an elite 107 Location+. Looking at that by pitch type (again, the data isn’t there for yesterday yet):
FF: 113 Stuff+, 115 Location+
FC: 90 Stuff+, 105 Location+
SL: 116 Stuff+, 103 Location+
CU: 91 Stuff+, 98 Location+
He’s still largely an unknown, and we don’t want to go all Joey Estes on it, but if you’re looking for SP upside, this is certainly a good guy to go after. His next start should be next week against the Cardinals. It might not be a long-term play since he threw just 65 innings last year and he’s already at 67 this year, but for now - go for it.
Nick Lodolo
He turned it around against the Pirates after having a few starts where the strikeouts and whiffs weren’t at their normal place, good to see there.
Lodolo has a 20.5% K-BB% and great 14% SwStr% now, he’s a top-20 SP when healthy, but there are still big question marks about his ability to stay healthy.
Pablo Lopez
He was bad again giving up five earned runs on seven hits and lasting just four innings. A 3-run homer allowed in the first didn’t help, but the 42.6% Strike% was really bad as well.
The most important thing to show with Lopez is the season-long 20.3% K-BB% he’s posted, that’s still a very good mark and there should be better times ahead for Lopez, but I am getting less and less confident about his ability to replicate anything close to what he did last year.
There’s no clear identifiable problem with him, it’s just that all of his main pitches have been a bit worse than last year. If drafting today I’d still likely take him in the top 12 SPs. Maybe he doesn’t have the upside of other guys, but he should give a lot of innings with solid production at worst.
Walker Buehler
4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 4.3% SwStr%
You can forgive a guy for giving up a bunch of hits in Coors Field, and it’s even a bit tougher to generate whiffs in that environment, but Buehler has shown almost nothing positive this year even prior to this outing.
He’s now at a season 7.7% SwStr% and 45% Strike%, both marks well below the league average. He’s not a ground ball pitcher either and the velocity is just fine rather than elite like it used to be. I guess I’m not at the point where I’d drop him, but I would be looking to sell him to someone who thinks he’ll get back near his old production this season.
Jonathan Cannon
It went really well for him in the box score:
8.2 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 4 K, 1 BB
Very efficient. He allowed a bunch of balls in play and they were turned into outs. The 8.5% SwStr% and 39.6% Strike% show us that he wasn’t all that good here and luck was a major factor. The season pitch mix now:
Not very impressive here, the numbers are all pretty much a league-average pitcher. And you don’t really want a league-average pitcher on your fantasy team if they pitch for the White Sox. I’d roll him out for the weekend start to complete the two-start week, but I wouldn’t be expecting all that much from him moving forward.
Tanner Houck
He’s still not giving up runs, but the underlying stuff has been trailing off a bit. He’s now at a 24.2% K% and 4.1% BB%, which is a fantastic 20.1% K-BB%. However, the SwStr% is much less impressive at 11.3% and he’s almost completed avoided the long ball, giving up just two gopher balls in 97 innings.
I think this screams sell-high if you can. I think he’s more of a 20-22% K% guy given the SwStr%, and he’s going to give up more homers moving forward. We talked about Cristopher Sanchez in this same manner yesterday with his 0.12 HR/9, but Houck is right there with him:
Sanchez 0.12 HR/9
Houck 0.19 HR/9
Williams 0.32 HR/9
Webb 0.45 HR/9
Olson 0.47 HR/9
Hitter Review
Zack Gelof
He hit a homer and swiped a bag on his way to a 28 fantasy game, from the nine hole in the order no less. He’s been bad this year on both sides of the IL stint:
Season: .195/.250/.335, 6 HR, 8 SB
Before Injury: .196/.260/.337, 3 HR, 4 SB
After Injury: .194/.241/.333, 3 HR, 4 SB
But maybe he’s shaking the injury off and getting back to form, in 52 June PA’s he’s done this:
.245/.274/.510, 3 HR, 3 SB
But put a bucket of water on that because he still has a 35% K% this month, so there’s not much good happening for Gelof.
I thought he would be a 20-20 guy this year even with a high strikeout rate, but the league seems to know how to get him out now, it’s not a good situation.
Brenton Doyle
One of my better calls of the year was advising that people draft Doyle late. He’s been great this year with a .741 OPS, six homers and now 18 steals. The K% is down to 26% and he’s hitting .270 with that. He’s a must-own fantasy player and he’s available in some leagues out there.
Coors Field
We have seen a bunch of runs in Coors lately. Some of that has to do with the Dodgers being in town, but Coors is looking more like Coors nonetheless. The park’s .359 BABIP leads the league by far, it’s still an elite place to hit and a scary place to pitch. I’m still starting good pitchers there against the Rockies, because that lineup is bad enough to offset a lot of the park factors.
And that’s all I have time for today, have a good Wednesday!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Spencer Schwellenbach
2. Nick Lodolo
3. Alec Marsh
4. Justin Steele
5. Aaron Civale
6. Casey Mize
7. Lance Lynn
8. Aaron Nola
9. Tobias Myers
10. Slade Cecconi
11. Tanner Houck
12. Roddery Munoz
13. Pablo Lopez
14. Michael King
15. Jonathan Cannon
16. Chris Bassitt
17. Griffin Canning
18. Logan Webb
19. Framber Valdez
20. Nestor Cortes
21. Luis Severino
22. Bailey Falter
23. Bryce Miller
24. Austin Gomber
25. Albert Suarez
26. Michael Lorenzen
27. Jake Irvin
28. Walker Buehler
29. Hogan Harris
30. Triston McKenzie
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo (vs. PIT): 31.35 Points
2. Slade Cecconi (vs. WSH): 27.7 Points
3. Jonathan Cannon (vs. HOU): 26.71 Points
4. Tobias Myers (vs. LAA): 26.64 Points
5. Spencer Schwellenbach (vs. DET): 26.5 Points
6. Nestor Cortes (vs. BAL): 26.5 Points
7. Justin Steele (vs. SF): 23.41 Points
8. Logan Webb (vs. CHC): 17.55 Points
9. Aaron Nola (vs. SD): 16.5 Points
10. Chris Bassitt (vs. BOS): 16.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 18 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 18 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Alec Marsh (KC): 14 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
4. Aaron Civale (TB): 14 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
5. Justin Steele (CHC): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Lance Lynn (STL): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
7. Michael King (SD): 12 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Casey Mize (DET): 11 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
9. Aaron Nola (PHI): 11 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 10 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 54.3 Strike%, 25.7 Ball%
2. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 53.9 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
3. Casey Mize (DET): 52.9 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
4. Tanner Houck (BOS): 50.5 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
5. Aaron Nola (PHI): 50.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
6. Justin Steele (CHC): 47.9 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
7. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 47.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
8. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 47.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
9. Lance Lynn (STL): 46.4 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
10. Michael King (SD): 45.0 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%
11. Griffin Canning (LAA): 45.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
12. Hogan Harris (OAK): 45.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
13. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 44.8 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
14. Tobias Myers (MIL): 44.4 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
15. Jake Irvin (WSH): 44.3 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Falter: 80 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Jonathan Cannon: 106 Pitches, 26 Outs, 4.08 POUT
3. Slade Cecconi: 70 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.12 POUT
4. Pablo Lopez: 54 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.5 POUT
5. Nick Lodolo: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
6. Michael Lorenzen: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
7. Austin Gomber: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
8. Tobias Myers: 90 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.74 POUT
9. Justin Steele: 96 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.8 POUT
10. Logan Webb: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Walker Buehler's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 92.5
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (25 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 90.4
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (32 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.7
Slade Cecconi's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.4
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.1
Lance Lynn's FC velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.0
Framber Valdez's SI velo (58 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (23.8%) up 16.9 points
Alec Marsh's SI usage (25.0%) up 15.3 points
Hogan Harris's SL usage (23.0%) up 19.7 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (21.8%) up 13.8 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (29.3%) up 17.4 points
Michael King's CH usage (31.0%) up 11.6 points
Michael Lorenzen's CU usage (14.6%) up 10.6 points
Pablo Lopez's ST usage (33.3%) up 11.6 points
Tanner Houck's FS usage (30.1%) up 10.1 points
Walker Buehler's FC usage (41.4%) up 17.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.5%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.8%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -15.7%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Carlos Carrasco 4-Seam Fastball: +14.4%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.3%
Garrett Crochet 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -13.7%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.4%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +13.2%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.9%
Tobias Myers 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +12.5%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +12.4%
Jesus Luzardo Changeup: +12.2%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 87 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 75 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Hunter Brown - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 103 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 91 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Paul Skenes - 92 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 41.9% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 40.5% K%
Tanner Bibee - 69 TBF, 36.2% K%
Paul Skenes - 92 TBF, 34.8% K%
Reynaldo Lopez - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Hunter Brown - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
Taj Bradley - 68 TBF, 30.9% K%
Ryan Pepiot - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
Max Fried - 74 TBF, 29.7% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 95 TBF, 29.5% K%
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