MLB Daily Notes - June 1st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Coming atcha from somewhere on the interstate in Ohio! I had my wife take the driving for a couple hours here so I could deliver the goods.
Pitcher Review
Reynaldo Lopez delivered against the Athletics to lead the day in SwStr% at 18.4% and post a very nice six inning, four hit, one run, eight strikeout game. The Athletics are back in the bottom ten in the league in OPS and should be viewed as a great matchup for pitchers still.
Pablo Lopez shut down the Astros, another lesson about not ever benching your studs even if they’re in a tough matchup after a few not-so-great outings.
Tanner Bibee was fantastic again. He now has three straight quality starts with a 21:3 K:BB in that time, the K-BB% is now at 19%. Over his last four starts his SwStr% is 14.4% with a great 33.6% Ball% and a 21% K-BB%.
Walker Buehler got through six innings against the Rockies but it wasn’t very good with four runs allowed and four walks. He did strike out seven, but the 8.7% SwStr% wasn’t convincing. His fastball is at 95.5mph for the year with an 8.1% SwStr% and 48% Strike%. I remember watching his debut years ago when he came out piping 100+, and that has not survived the years and the injuries. And that’s a word of caution about your long-term hopes for these young flamethrowers. It doesn’t always stick around, either due to choice (management tells you to calm down) or injury taking a little bit off.
Bryan Woo has just three strikeouts in his last 12 innings, but at least yesterday he didn’t allow any runs. The season K% is down to 18.4% with an elite 2% BB%. I don’t think he’ll be below 20% for long, but there are concerns that maybe he’s not the 26%+ guy we thought.
Hitter Review
Aaron Judge wrapped up his record-breaking month of May with two more homers. He slugged .928 in May with 14 homers and a 47% Brl%. The next highest Brl% was Corey Seager at 26%. Judge barreled a ball in 28% of his plate appearances (the league average in May was 6.6%). Just an absolutely ridiculous month from one of the most talented power hitter sin MLB history.
Your other hitters with double-digit homers in May were Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, and Corey Seager. They all hit 11.
Your highest batting averages with at least 100 May PA:
Arraez .389
Judge .371
Guerrero Jr. .257
Profar .344
Rooker .330
Ohtani .323
Witt Jr. 315
Toro .315
Bell .311
Tovar .308
Most steals in May:
Elly 14 (he did that with a .298 OBP)
Doyle 10
Stott 9
Ohtani/Rodriguez/Witt 7
Chisholm 6
Castro/T Freeman/Maike.Turang/Gimenez 5
Jesus Sanchez had been unlucky for awhile but he busted out last night with a homer, two doubles, a walk, two runs, and three RBI. That was his best game of the year by a good margin. The reason I know that is because he anchored my DFS lineup last night and took me to the money - so shout out to me.
Nelson Velazquez three-barreled last night. If you don’t know about Nelson, he is the quintessential swing-for-the-fences hitter. He has a 29% K%, a 63% Contact%, and a 10.6% Brl%. That Brl% is actually way down from last year (21%). If you’re going to wihff on 37% of your swings, you probably need to post a 15%+ Brl% to keep your job, and he hasn’t done that. The slash line is at .220/.283/.415 with eight homers. He’s not a standard league bat, but in a 15-team league with five outfield spots, he’s a decent add because he will likely homer at a 25+ homer rate, the question is just if he can stay on the field.
Quick check-in on J.D. Martinez since he double-barreled last night and I haven’t written about him this year.
.272/.317/.465, 5 HR, 18.4% Brl%, 31% K%, 51% Hard%
A lot like last year. He has taken the Votto approach to just sell out for power late in his career, and I wonder if that’s just not the right way to go. For a long time Martinez was a guy that would spray the ball all over and limit strikeouts.
Once you’re well into your 30’s, you have lost a lot of physical ability and the smartest hitters seem to choose to go the Stanton route rather than Arraez route, which makes sense to me. I’m guessing they could do either, but a pretty good way to get another contract at age 36 is to blast 30 homers in a year like J.D. did last year. He’s not done yet!
David Fry now has eight homers with .352/.474/.629 slash line on a 19% K% and 9.8% Brl%. He’s been probably the biggest surprise of the year. It’s too late to add him in most leagues, and I was certainly very late to the party. I don’t suspect this will keep up for long (.392 BABIP), but anybody who has picked him up so far has benefited massively.
And that’s it, I cannot believe I got this solid of a Daily Notes post out today.
The one problem I do have is that the projections have stopped running. I tried to restart them from the car here but my phone hotspot isn’t giving my laptop a strong enough connection to handle all of that, but I should be able to get those running again in a couple of hours, certainly well before the slate starts today.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez
2. Reynaldo Lopez
3. Tanner Bibee
4. Dylan Cease
5. Jose Berrios
6. Bailey Falter
7. JP Sears
8. Patrick Corbin
9. Aaron Nola
10. Jordan Montgomery
11. Luis Severino
12. Kenta Maeda
13. Tanner Houck
14. Bryan Woo
15. Ronel Blanco
16. Graham Ashcraft
17. Albert Suarez
18. Erick Fedde
19. Miles Mikolas
20. Dakota Hudson
21. Walker Buehler
22. Jordan Hicks
23. Tobias Myers
24. Javier Assad
25. Jose Soriano
26. Aaron Civale
27. Jose Urena
28. Marcus Stroman
29. Michael Wacha
30. Sixto Sanchez
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Reynaldo Lopez (vs. OAK): 27.9 Points
2. Tanner Bibee (vs. WSH): 27.84 Points
3. Tanner Houck (vs. DET): 26.75 Points
4. Pablo Lopez (vs. HOU): 25.55 Points
5. Aaron Nola (vs. STL): 23.24 Points
6. Bailey Falter (vs. TOR): 21.1 Points
7. Dakota Hudson (vs. LAD): 20.75 Points
8. Jose Berrios (vs. PIT): 20.15 Points
9. Javier Assad (vs. CIN): 17.19 Points
10. Bryan Woo (vs. LAA): 15.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 17 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Dylan Cease (SD): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 16 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. JP Sears (OAK): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
7. Jose Berrios (TOR): 13 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
8. Kenta Maeda (DET): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
9. Jordan Montgomery (ARI): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
10. Jose Soriano (LAA): 10 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 53.7 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
2. Bailey Falter (PIT): 51.9 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
3. Luis Severino (NYM): 51.5 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 51.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
5. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 49.5 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
6. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 49.4 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
7. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 49.4 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
8. Jordan Hicks (SF): 48.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
9. Tanner Houck (BOS): 47.4 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
10. Dylan Cease (SD): 46.9 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
11. Erick Fedde (CWS): 46.9 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
12. Miles Mikolas (STL): 46.9 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
13. Jose Berrios (TOR): 46.5 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
14. Albert Suarez (BAL): 46.3 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%
15. Bryan Woo (SEA): 45.5 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryan Woo: 66 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.67 POUT
2. Marcus Stroman: 91 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.33 POUT
3. Sixto Sanchez: 53 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.42 POUT
4. Pablo Lopez: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
5. Tanner Houck: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
6. JP Sears: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
7. Tanner Bibee: 89 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.68 POUT
8. Bailey Falter: 81 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.76 POUT
9. Jose Berrios: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
10. Dakota Hudson: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Miles Mikolas's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 87.0
Bailey Falter's FF velo (45 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.6
Graham Ashcraft's SL velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.9
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.5
Graham Ashcraft's FC velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.1
Michael Wacha's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.8
JP Sears's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.8
Jordan Montgomery's SI velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.3
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.2
Sixto Sanchez's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 83.4
Sixto Sanchez's FF velo (12 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 91.0
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (16 pitches) DOWN -3.6mph to 80.6
Sixto Sanchez's FC velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 79.9
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (58 pitches) DOWN -4.3mph to 93.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (16.3%) up 10.6 points
Bailey Falter's SI usage (23.5%) up 12.7 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (29.7%) up 21.1 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (23.8%) up 11.9 points
Jordan Montgomery's CU usage (37.3%) up 13.1 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (25.3%) up 13.8 points
Jose Urena's SI usage (43.1%) up 10.4 points
Logan Allen's FC usage (38.8%) up 22.7 points
Logan Allen's FS usage (25.4%) up 23.0 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (35.1%) up 25.9 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (17.5%) up 12.1 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (28.6%) up 15.3 points
Michael Wacha's SL usage (14.1%) up 11.1 points
Miles Mikolas's SI usage (39.6%) up 15.0 points
Tanner Houck's FS usage (29.5%) up 10.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea Sinker: +19.6%
Justin Steele 4-Seam Fastball: -17.3%
Javier Assad Sinker: +17.2%
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -16.6%
Casey Mize 4-Seam Fastball: -15.3%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +15.1%
Luis Severino Sinker: +15.1%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.6%
Nick Pivetta 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Nick Pivetta Cutter: -14.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.2%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +13.2%
Jake Irvin Curveball: +12.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Trevor Rogers Changeup: -12.7%
Michael Wacha Slider: +12.7%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 95 TBF, 41.9% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 89 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Luis Gil - 96 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 96 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 101 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Reynaldo Lopez - 84 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Paul Skenes - 84 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Matt Waldron - 92 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Paul Skenes - 84 TBF, 35.7% K%
Luis Gil - 96 TBF, 35.4% K%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 35.4% K%
Matt Waldron - 92 TBF, 33.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
Justin Verlander - 98 TBF, 29.6% K%
Cole Ragans - 98 TBF, 29.6% K%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 28.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 95 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 84 TBF, 29.8% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 96 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Matt Waldron - 92 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 98 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 98 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 97 TBF, 22.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 101 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 89 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 98 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Max Fried - 105 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Jose Soriano - 98 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Paul Skenes - 84 TBF, 52.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 89 TBF, 50.7% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 77 TBF, 33.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Cole Ragans - 98 TBF, 29.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 64 TBF, 32.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hunter Brown - 87 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 58.9% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 95 TBF, 35.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 89 TBF, 28.1 K%, 6.7 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Luis Gil - 96 TBF, 35.4 K%, 7.3 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Paul Skenes - 84 TBF, 35.7 K%, 6.0 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 6.8 BB%, 51.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Keaton Winn: 18.35 ERA, 5.71 SIERA
Bryce Elder: 11.58 ERA, 4.58 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 9.49 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
Ross Stripling: 9.97 ERA, 5.13 SIERA
Matthew Liberatore: 8.03 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Kenta Maeda: 9.25 ERA, 5.88 SIERA
Mason Black: 8.79 ERA, 5.43 SIERA
Martin Perez: 7.55 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Cristian Javier: 8.74 ERA, 5.71 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 7.2 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Luckiest
Bailey Falter: 2.23 ERA, 5.75 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 0.67 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Reese Olson: 0.64 ERA, 3.66 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 1.91 ERA, 4.73 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 1.3 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 1.98 ERA, 4.62 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 2.73 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.3 ERA, 3.66 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.6 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Luis Gil: 0.84 ERA, 3.06 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jack Flaherty - +3.0% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - +2.6% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Alek Manoah - +2.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +3.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Justin Steele - +3.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Matt Waldron - +5.1% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Taj Bradley - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Brad Keller - +2.3% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Austin Gomber - +6.6% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Joey Wentz - +2.6% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Tylor Megill - +2.5% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
J.D. Martinez (NYM) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Leody Taveras (TEX) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nelson Velazquez (KC) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Nick Gordon (MIA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ty France (SEA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Nick Gonzales, Yesterday: 109.1 Previous High: 107.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.5mph - double
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.8mph - nan
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.4mph - nan
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.3mph - home_run
Rowdy Tellez (PIT) - 112.1mph - nan
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 112.1mph - nan
Brent Rooker (OAK) - 111.9mph - single
William Contreras (MIL) - 111.7mph - single
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.7mph - double
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.0mph - double
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