MLB Daily Notes - June 20th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Import reader question to cover today from Josh D:
So, I was looking at Yesterday's SP Data Sheet, in particular at Emmett Sheehan. Was disappointed in the results. But then I came across Rotowire stating "Sheehan had about as good a debut as possible, throwing 51 of 89 pitches for strikes.". I'm thinking this shows a Strike% of 57% and the sheet is showing 40.4%. Can you explain the difference. I may be calculating it wrong
I have said this before but haven’t made it super clear, and I am still planning on doing a full analysis post about different pitching categories very soon, but it’s good to clarify quite often so people know.
My version of Strike% is always going to be the percent of pitches that earn a strike, this includes
Called strikes
Swinging strikes
Foul balls (even in two-strike counts when a strike isn’t actually added to the count)
The other way to do strike is to include balls in play as a strike, and that’s what you’re hearing when someone cites a strike rate well above 50%. So in the case of Sheehan, here’s that breakdown
Pitches: 89
Strikes: 36
Balls: 38
Ball In Play: 15
My version of strike:
36 / 89 = 40.4%
The other version of strike:
(36 + 15) / 89 = 57.3%
Which is better? I’d argue that mine is better, since it’s more descriptive. A guy can throw five pitches, have them all hit 600 feet for homers and have a 100% Strike% if you do it the second way. Seems dumb!
The missing component of my version is that not all balls in play are created equal, and sometimes a ball in play is better than a strike. If a pitcher gets an infield popup, that’s an optimal outcome - no damage is going to be done there, so to properly do all of this you have to consider a little bit of what kind of balls in play is the pitching allowing. But that gets tricky and random and complex, and I think we can do pretty well just by looking at SwStr%, Strike%, Ball%, BIP%, and GB% - the stats I will most often be talking about here.
Good question!
I have to get to work, so no time for further commentary here today.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (vs. HOU): 33.0 Points
2. Merrill Kelly (vs. MIL): 29.35 Points
3. James Paxton (vs. MIN): 23.84 Points
4. Andrew Heaney (vs. CWS): 21.76 Points
5. Reese Olson (vs. KC): 19.3 Points
6. Drew Smyly (vs. PIT): 18.45 Points
7. Pablo Lopez (vs. BOS): 17.36 Points
8. Osvaldo Bido (vs. CHC): 17.3 Points
9. Bryan Hoeing (vs. TOR): 17.2 Points
10. Keaton Winn (vs. SD): 15.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. James Paxton (BOS): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
2. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 16 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
3. Max Scherzer (NYM): 15 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Reese Olson (DET): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
5. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 14 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
7. Drew Smyly (CHC): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 12 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
9. Osvaldo Bido (PIT): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
10. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 11 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 52.9 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
2. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 52.3 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
3. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 52.2 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
4. James Paxton (BOS): 50.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
5. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 50.0 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
6. Bryan Hoeing (MIA): 50.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
7. Shawn Dubin (HOU): 49.2 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
8. Reese Olson (DET): 48.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
9. Tanner Banks (CWS): 47.6 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
10. Josiah Gray (WSH): 47.1 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
11. Osvaldo Bido (PIT): 46.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
12. Adrian Houser (MIL): 46.8 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
13. Keaton Winn (SF): 46.7 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
14. Hunter Brown (HOU): 45.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
15. Austin Gomber (COL): 45.5 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Reese Olson - 6.0 IP - 134.5 JA Points
2. Pablo Lopez - 5.67 IP - 132.0 JA Points
3. Max Scherzer - 8.0 IP - 132.0 JA Points
4. Keaton Winn - 5.0 IP - 124.0 JA Points
5. Hunter Brown - 5.67 IP - 124.0 JA Points
6. James Paxton - 6.33 IP - 123.0 JA Points
7. Merrill Kelly - 7.0 IP - 111.0 JA Points
8. Osvaldo Bido - 6.0 IP - 110.0 JA Points
9. Brandon Williamson - 5.0 IP - 107.5 JA Points
10. Andrew Heaney - 5.67 IP - 106.0 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jordan Lyles's ST velo (33 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 82.0
Josiah Gray's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Houser's SI usage (67.5%) up 23.9 points
Brandon Williamson's FF usage (43.0%) up 11.3 points
Drew Smyly's FC usage (28.7%) up 21.4 points
Jordan Lyles's ST usage (35.9%) up 13.0 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (22.5%) up 17.3 points
Josiah Gray's ST usage (15.7%) up 13.5 points
Keaton Winn's SI usage (26.7%) up 14.0 points
Max Scherzer's SL usage (34.1%) up 15.4 points
Merrill Kelly's FF usage (38.6%) up 11.5 points
Pablo Lopez's CU usage (21.2%) up 10.7 points
Reese Olson's FF usage (39.0%) up 11.7 points
Tanner Banks's SL usage (34.9%) up 10.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +24.5%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +22.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +18.4%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -16.3%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +15.7%
Zach Davies Sinker: -15.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +15.3%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -15.0%
Austin Gomber Slider: +14.6%
Chase Anderson 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Brandon Williamson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +13.9%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.9%
Shintaro Fujinami Slider: -13.7%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +13.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -13.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +13.3%
Shintaro Fujinami 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +12.9%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Braxton Garrett Cutter: +12.6%
Reid Detmers Curveball: +12.6%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Kyle Bradish 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: -12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 75 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 85 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 42.4% K%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 36.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 30.4% K%
Lance Lynn - 99 TBF, 30.3% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 79 TBF, 29.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 67 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Tyler Wells - 73 TBF, 23.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 78 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 62.2% GB%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 93 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Bryce Elder - 97 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 107 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Brayan Bello - 100 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 73 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 36.6 K%, 3.7 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Bryan Hoeing - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 2.3 BB%, 65.5% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 79 TBF, 29.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, 52.9% GB%
George Kirby - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 61.2% GB%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Matthew Boyd - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 28.7 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 76 TBF, 28.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.6 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Dean Kremer - +2.4% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Blake Snell - +4.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.7% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.7% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.4% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +3.8% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
George Kirby - +5.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +2.5% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +5.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Mike Clevinger - +6.7% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Jakob Junis - +2.7% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Nick Martinez - +3.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Juan Soto (SD) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mitch Garver (TEX) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Triston Casas (BOS) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Jesus Sanchez, Yesterday: 115.4 Previous High: 114.9
Jonathan Davis, Yesterday: 109.3 Previous High: 109.1
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Joey Votto - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
2. Triston Casas - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
3. Alek Thomas - 4.0 PA - 33.5 JA Points
4. Mike Yastrzemski - 5.0 PA - 33.5 JA Points
5. Juan Soto - 4.0 PA - 31.5 JA Points
6. Bobby Witt Jr. - 4.0 PA - 29.0 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez - 5.0 PA - 28.5 JA Points
8. Maikel Garcia - 4.0 PA - 25.5 JA Points
9. Josh Jung - 5.0 PA - 25.0 JA Points
10. Christian Vazquez - 4.0 PA - 23.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Corey Seager (TEX) - 184.0 PA - 50.33 JA Points
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 328.0 PA - 18.29 JA Points
3. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 326.0 PA - 8.9 JA Points
4. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 329.0 PA - 8.09 JA Points
5. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 209.0 PA - 7.56 JA Points
6. Josh Naylor (CLE) - 247.0 PA - -1.46 JA Points
7. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 294.0 PA - -3.61 JA Points
8. Keibert Ruiz (WSH) - 238.0 PA - -5.63 JA Points
9. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 318.0 PA - -6.42 JA Points
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 309.0 PA - -8.8 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 115.4mph - foul
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 113.7mph - grounded_into_double_play
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 113.1mph - home_run
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 112.3mph - double
Starling Marte (NYM) - 110.9mph - single
Triston Casas (BOS) - 110.8mph - home_run
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 110.7mph - foul
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 110.5mph - single
Joey Gallo (MIN) - 110.4mph - foul
Triston Casas (BOS) - 109.9mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Bobby Witt Jr. - 71 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.461 xwOBA, 0.118 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 0.309 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Zach McKinstry - 72 PA, 0.189 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Pavin Smith - 70 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 74 PA, 0.271 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 65 PA, 0.164 wOBA, 0.22 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Dominic Smith - 67 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Trea Turner - 84 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Trent Grisham - 60 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Bryce Harper - 76 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Bottom 10
Corbin Carroll - 82 PA, 0.519 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, -0.147 Diff
Geraldo Perdomo - 64 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Bryson Stott - 71 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.255 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Jake Burger - 63 PA, 0.359 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 0.46 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Eddie Rosario - 65 PA, 0.499 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Luis Robert - 79 PA, 0.403 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 68 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 72 PA, 0.446 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Orlando Arcia - 71 PA, 0.437 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
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