MLB Daily Notes - June 21st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Carlos Rodon debuted last night with a strong outing in AA. He threw just 42 pitches and faced ten batters, striking out half of them and earning a nice 17% SwStr%. Good start! Seems like he’ll make two more starts there and then be back in the Majors in about two weeks as long as there are no setbacks.
A new research piece came out here yesterday, I went through the most commonly cited pitching stats and talked about them all in detail. This will help everybody understand Strike%, Ball%, BIP%, etc. a bit more and give us some incite into correlations and predictiveness and whatnot.
Now to your normally scheduled programming:
Pitchers - Yesterday
Eury Perez had his best start of the year with nine strikeouts and a super-elite 23.8% SwStr% on a 60% Strike%.
That was just the tenth time all year someone has gone above 20% with the SwStr% and above 60% with the Strike%. Crazy impressive stuff.
Dylan Cease seems to be getting it back together with four straight good starts by the numbers I like most. He had a 23.8% SwStr% yesterday and 24 whiffs. Over his last four starts:
51.1% Strike%
36.5% Ball%
19.9% SwStr%
35.2% K%
11.0% BB%
.596 OPS allowed
Good to see the whiffs coming back in bunches. The walk rate has been double-digits for most of the year, which is a bit of a problem, but it’s something he can deal with if the K% is above 30% like it has been lately.
Spencer Strider also had a nice start with a 9:0 K:BB on 22 whiffs and a 54.4% Strike%. That’s elite stuff. He did give up eight hits on a .500 BABIP, here’s the BB type breakdown from last night for him:
The flare is the soft line drive, and those will very often land for hits (67% of the time to be exact!). Strider isn’t a ground-ball pitcher, which makes him a little more susceptible to this, but giving up a 38% Flare% like he did last night is very rare, so it was some bad luck there. Strider would still be my #1 SP if drafting today.
George Kirby had a down start with just a 4.2% SwStr%. He still didn’t walk anybody and got 13 ground balls, but the lack of whiffs is upsetting.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (vs. NYM): 33.0 Points
2. Gerrit Cole (vs. SEA): 31.49 Points
3. Reid Detmers (vs. LAD): 29.95 Points
4. Eury Perez (vs. TOR): 29.7 Points
5. Spencer Strider (vs. PHI): 28.7 Points
6. Jordan Montgomery (vs. WSH): 26.75 Points
7. Marcus Stroman (vs. PIT): 26.15 Points
8. Clayton Kershaw (vs. LAA): 25.55 Points
9. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. MIA): 24.3 Points
10. Kyle Bradish (vs. TB): 23.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (CWS): 24 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 22 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 20 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
4. Framber Valdez (HOU): 19 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Eury Perez (MIA): 19 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
6. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Aaron Civale (CLE): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
10. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Eury Perez (MIA): 60.0 Strike%, 26.2 Ball%
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 54.4 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
3. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 52.9 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
4. Peter Lambert (COL): 52.7 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
5. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 52.4 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
6. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 52.2 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
7. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 50.6 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
8. Anthony DeSclafani (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
9. Seth Lugo (SD): 50.0 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 49.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
11. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 49.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
12. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 48.9 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
13. Aaron Civale (CLE): 48.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
14. Thaddeus Ward (WSH): 48.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
15. Reid Detmers (LAA): 48.0 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Eovaldi’s velocity was massively down. It was the second time all year his fastball came up under 95 mph on average, and the first time under 94. That’s a bit concerning, something to monitor.
Kyle Bradish had a decent start with a 14.1% SwStr% and a 52.2% Strike%. He embraced the slider like he never has before, throwing it almost half the time and dropping both fastball usages significantly.
That’s probably what he needs to do to have success at this point. His four-seamer has been crushed this year to the tune of a .464 xwOBA, and the sinker hasn’t been better with a 3.7% SwStr% and a .343 xwOBA. It’s not a long-term solution, you can’t have success as a starter with this stuff going on, but maybe it’ll work for him in the short-term while he works out something with the fastballs.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luis Medina's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 81.4
Aaron Civale's CU velo (27 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 79.1
Ben Lively's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.9
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 93.8
Peter Lambert's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 87.0
Reid Detmers's SL velo (36 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 87.9
Yusei Kikuchi's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 81.4
Nathan Eovaldi's FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 88.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Daniel Lynch's FF usage (51.3%) up 12.3 points
Framber Valdez's FC usage (28.7%) up 13.5 points
George Kirby's SL usage (34.7%) up 17.9 points
Kutter Crawford's ST usage (11.7%) up 10.8 points
Kyle Bradish's SL usage (47.8%) up 19.6 points
Noah Davis's SI usage (58.0%) up 10.7 points
Thaddeus Ward's SI usage (50.0%) up 17.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +24.5%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +22.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +17.6%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -16.3%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +15.7%
Zach Davies Sinker: -15.4%
Kyle Bradish 4-Seam Fastball: -15.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +15.3%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -15.0%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +14.9%
Austin Gomber Slider: +14.6%
Chase Anderson 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Brandon Williamson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +13.9%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.9%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +13.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -13.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +13.3%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Braxton Garrett Cutter: +12.6%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Eury Perez Curveball: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent
It’s an exciting Garrett Whitlock day today, and I very much hope he can stay on these lists after tonight - I love that guy.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 75 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 42.4% K%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 36.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 31.9% K%
Eury Perez - 83 TBF, 31.3% K%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 82 TBF, 30.5% K%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 83 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 82 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
George Kirby - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Sandy Alcantara - 78 TBF, 65.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 105 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 93 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 60.3% GB%
George Kirby - 97 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 73 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Brayan Bello - 80 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Bryce Elder - 69 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 36.6 K%, 3.7 BB%, 55.1% GB%
James Paxton - 96 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Matthew Boyd - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Max Scherzer - 101 TBF, 28.7 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.6 BB%, 53.3% GB%
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