MLB Daily Notes - June 22nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitchers - Yesterday
There were a lot of interesting pitchers on the bump yesterday, so let’s go through some of those.
Garrett Whitlock led the day with a 20.5% SwStr%. He earned 18 whiffs, but did give up four runs. The sinker was the main pitch, being used 56% of the time and racking up a 22% SwStr%, which is absurd for a sinker.
He has just an 8.4% SwStr% on the sinker for the season, so the Twins were definitely doing him some favors last night. His Strike% was also down to 43%, for the season that is at 50%, but he didn’t walk a batter and now has a 3.8% BB% on the year - only Kirby, Greinke, and Syndergaard beat that mark. The only pitchers in the league with a SwStr% above 13% and a BB% below 5% are
Joe Ryan
Braxton Garrett
Garrett Whitlock
Braxton Garrett Whitlock - word play! So I’m saying all of this to say that I think Whitlock is very, very good - and he’s one of those guys you can still get in some leagues.
Next is Andrew Abbott, who had an awesome start in his own right. He finally gave up some runs, and he did that in the form of serving up three solo homers, but he posted a 19.3% SwStr% with 17 whiffs, a 54.5% Strike%, and a 10:0 K:BB. That’s pretty elite stuff. That brought his season to this:
23.9% K%
9.8% BB%
49.1% Strike%
34.9% Ball%
10.0% SwStr%
28% GB%
If the SwStr% is going to be above 13% or so, we’re really onto something here.
Here are the updated pitch mix numbers:
So he’s still using the fastball around 50% of the time, and before yesterday it wasn’t very effective, but he’s earning strikes at a higher rate than average and he at least showed the big upside yesterday. The other thing with Abbott is that he’s going to be a super high FB% pitcher, which will result in some homers like we saw yesterday. His early 43% FB% trails on JP Sears among pitchers with at least 4 starts this year, so that could end up being a problem for him - but we’ve got a lot of time left before we’re confident about who Abbott is.
Taj Bradley was elite with an 8:0 K:BB yesterday, getting through six innings on 83 pitches. The 15.7% SwStr%, 57.8% Strike%, and 26.5% Ball% is just an elite trio of stats. For the year:
34.5% K%
7.3% BB%
51.4% Strike%
13.8% SwStr%
34.4% Ball%
35% GB%
That gives him the second-best K-BB% in the league behind Strider (7 GS minimum). He’s going to rank very highly on my rest of season SP ranks, although the pitch counts (he’s probably going to be under 90 most starts) and the Rays handling of young pitchers in general will knock him down a few spots. The good news is that he threw 133 innings last year, so he can feasibly go up to 150+ without much issue, which gives him a long leash since he’s currently at just 65 innings.
Now for the bad news.
Sandy Alcantara just stinks now I guess.
15 GS
13.6% SwStr%
47.6% Strike%
31.8% Ball%
19.4% K%
7.2% BB%
50% GB%
So there’s actually some positive here. The SwStr% is quite high, and the Strike% isn’t bad. You could say that he’s under-performing in K% given that SwStr%.
He just lets a lot of balls get into play, which subjects him to more bad luck than other pitchers. He’s been frustrating, but I think he’s due for some better performance moving forward.
Cristian Javier had just eight whiffs and a 9.8% SwStr%, so things are pretty weird there. He’s been way different this year after his “breakout” 2022.
15 GS
13.1% SwStr%
46% Strike%
37% Ball%
22.9% K%
7.1% BB%
Last year he had a 33.2% K%, a 15% SwStr%, and a 50.6% Strike%. So he’s way worse in all of those stats. His Stuff+ is way down as well (133 last year, under 110 this year). Maybe he can figure it out, but he doesn’t seem anywhere near a fantasy ace this season.
Michael Kopech went for a 9.3% SwStr% and a 46.5% Ball% yesterday, so that’s horrific. Tough matchup there against the Rangers, so we can look past it - but over his last three starts his K:BB is just 15:10, so the good times haven’t been rolling.
Lastly, Gavin Williams did not have a good debut.
An 8.3% SwStr% is very bad and the Strike% was very low, and the 25% GB% isn’t a good sign either. He didn’t look like himself, which is interesting. If we look at his minor league numbers we see higher velocity on the four-seamer.
It would be a pretty big coincidence if Williams just suddenly lost the velocity. Maybe this had something to do with nerves or some other adjustment to the Majors or something - he gets the Royals next so if you have him, I’d definitely start him again and we’ll keep an eye on the numbers.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani (vs. LAD): 33.55 Points
2. Taj Bradley (vs. BAL): 29.7 Points
3. Andrew Abbott (vs. COL): 25.1 Points
4. Matt Boyd (vs. KC): 23.9 Points
5. Zac Gallen (vs. MIL): 23.35 Points
6. Trevor Williams (vs. STL): 22.5 Points
7. Jhony Brito (vs. SEA): 20.96 Points
8. Sean Hjelle (vs. SD): 20.0 Points
9. Kevin Gausman (vs. MIA): 18.1 Points
10. Kyle Hendricks (vs. PIT): 17.24 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 20 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Garrett Whitlock (BOS): 18 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
3. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 17 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
4. Matthew Boyd (DET): 14 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
5. Taj Bradley (TB): 13 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
6. Zac Gallen (ARI): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Tyler Wells (BAL): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Luis Castillo (SEA): 11 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
9. Yu Darvish (SD): 11 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
10. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 62.4 Strike%, 23.8 Ball%
2. Taj Bradley (TB): 57.8 Strike%, 26.5 Ball%
3. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 54.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 53.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
5. Sean Hjelle (SF): 50.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
6. Matthew Boyd (DET): 50.6 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
7. Yu Darvish (SD): 49.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
8. Luis Castillo (SEA): 49.5 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
9. Tyler Wells (BAL): 48.4 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%
10. Sonny Gray (MIN): 47.8 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 47.7 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
12. Rich Hill (PIT): 47.4 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
13. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 45.8 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
14. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 45.6 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
15. Trevor Williams (WSH): 44.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
Pitcher / Pitch Trends
Shohei Ohtani continues to ditch the sweeper, yesterday in favor of the four-seamer, throwing it 50% of the time yesterday - it worked well. He has so many different options, he’s a top-five SP and top-five hitter, what a world.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Yu Darvish's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 3.5mph to 77.6
Jhony Brito's CU velo (21 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 82.6
Tylor Megill's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.1
Sonny Gray's ST velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.2
Yu Darvish's ST velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 81.0
Garrett Whitlock's CH velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 81.2
Shohei Ohtani's FC velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 88.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Julio Teheran's FC usage (29.5%) up 25.3 points
Kyle Hendricks's CH usage (53.4%) up 18.0 points
Luis Castillo's SL usage (32.0%) up 13.0 points
Miles Mikolas's SI usage (44.9%) up 16.4 points
Paul Blackburn's FF usage (21.1%) up 10.4 points
Shohei Ohtani's FF usage (49.5%) up 20.7 points
Shohei Ohtani's FC usage (28.7%) up 15.0 points
Sonny Gray's FF usage (39.1%) up 17.8 points
Trevor Williams's SL usage (28.0%) up 14.6 points
Tyler Wells's SL usage (28.4%) up 14.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +24.5%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -22.5%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +17.6%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +16.6%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -16.3%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +15.7%
Zach Davies Sinker: -15.4%
Kyle Bradish 4-Seam Fastball: -15.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +15.3%
Jhony Brito Sinker: +15.2%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +14.9%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +14.6%
Austin Gomber Slider: +14.6%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Chase Anderson 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Brandon Williamson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.9%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +13.9%
Trevor Williams Slider: +13.7%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +13.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -13.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +13.3%
Braxton Garrett Cutter: +12.6%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Eury Perez Curveball: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent
There’s Whitlock! 35.1% CSW% in his last 103 batters faced, beautiful.
We also see Sandy Alcantara leading the league in GB% the last three weeks, so that’s a positive sign, I suppose.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 77 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 103 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
James Paxton - 76 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 88 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 82 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 80 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
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