MLB Daily Notes - June 22nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I now have a Grammarly Premium free trial, so we are going to find out if that will result in fewer typos. Somedays, I am really into writing and being diligent with my sentences, but most days, I’m trying to get stuff done, and I let my fingers move faster than my brain. Things get pretty ugly here in some of these posts.
Andrew Abbott struck out ten Red Sox; that was just the third time in his career he’s gone for double-digits, and that doubles his average strikeout output of 5. The projection model had a surprisingly high K projection on him, so much so that I even looked into it to ensure it was legit. I guess that Red Sox lineup was set up very well for left-handed strikeouts. That gets his season K% to 20% and the SwStr% to 10%.
The one-liner on Abbott would be that he is a fly ball pitcher in Great American Ballpark with a middling strikeout rate. That does not sound like something that would turn into a very good MLB pitcher, but he has been serviceable in his time with a 3.67 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 36 career starts. He’s given up 31 homers in those 36 starts, with 18 of them being at home. His career splits:
Home: 97 IP, 3.43 ERA, 24.1% K%, 8.9% BB%
Road: 97 IP, 3.90 ERA, 22.9% K%, 8.5% BB%
I would have expected those ERA’s to be flipped, but you can never trust ERA to do what you think it should.
Nothing changed yesterday in the pitch mix or velocity or anything like that, it was just a good night executing pitches and taking advantage of some weak hitters, I suppose.
My advice to Abbott, as an expert, would be that he should add five miles per hour of velocity to his four-seam fastball without losing any command of the pitch.
Chris Sale was jazzed up to face the Yankees again. He threw all four of his pitches way harder.
The result was nice as the Braves added another loss to the Yankees record.
5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 8 K, 3 BB, 56.8% Strike%, 35.8% Ball%
There is not much more to say about Sale. He’s in the top five in K-BB% at 27%, and all signs point to his being healthy.
Two very ugly outings came from Shota Imanaga and Grayson Rodriguez.
Imanaga: 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 3 K, 1 BB
Rodriguez: 5 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 8 K, 2 BB
That took their ERA’s from:
Imanaga: 1.89 → 2.96
Rodriguez: 3.20 → 3.82
I wrote early on about how the long ball would eventually hurt Imanaga, which happened yesterday and has been more of a problem lately.
First 7 starts: 3 HR
Last 7 starts: 7 HR
Yesterday: 3 HR
He is a flyball pitcher, and his strikeout rate is now down to 25%. With higher temperatures come longer flying fly balls, so this could be a real issue for him.
The good news is that in his last seven starts, he still has a very strong 15.2% SwStr% and 19% K-BB%, so he’s been a very good starter even after that insane start that everybody knew could not last. I’d keep rolling him out there with confidence.
As for Grayson Rodriguez, my instinct is to say that he’s had a pretty underwhelming career so far. This guy was one of the top pitching prospects in recent history; I mean, he was a huge deal. And so far in the Majors:
36 GS, 197.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 25.6% K%, 8.0% BB%
So the ERA and WHIP both make him look like an average pitcher. Don’t get me wrong, a league-average pitcher is pretty valuable in the real world, provided they can pile up the innings, but we expected Rodriguez to be in the Cy Young conversation by now.
That’s a lesson about setting expectations for prospects. It’s also a lesson about being patient; 36 starts isn’t very many. He could very well take off starting next week and make this all look silly, but you are not getting what you paid for in fantasy this year.
Let’s take a quick look at the pitch mix stuff:
There is a lot of like here. The 15% SwStr% and 34% Ball% are great, and you can see the fastball has strong marks. He has plenty of different ways to go with all of these secondary options, so I expect that G-Rod will continue to improve. I cannot call him a fantasy ace at this current moment.
Check out DJ Herz. He added 12 more whiffs and a good 5:0 K:BB in Coors Field. That was the end of the good news, though, as he gave up seven hits and three earned runs while making it through just 3.2 innings. The 15.8% SwStr% is a good sign, though. His season SwStr% now sits at 16% in four starts. Impressive stuff. He is definitely an add in deeper leagues and someone to keep an eye on in other leagues.
So far, Grammarly has scolded me about not using enough commas and over-using words like “just” and “even.” Writing is hard, man. It even made me swap the period and quotation mark order there in that first sentence. Have they changed the rules, or did I just learn this stuff wrong? I was a computer science major anyway; I have an excuse.
I wrote that sentence with zero commas, and then it changed it so it had two commas. I’m not sure I agree, but I will trust it today.
We saw another good result from Jordan Montgomery:
6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB
The SwStr% was bad at 10.8%, and the Strike% was really bad at 41%, so that’s discouraging.
But it’s a 20% K-BB% in his last two starts, so that’s a very good sign after the sub-10% mark he posted prior.
Oh okay, Grammarly has no problem with me starting a sentence with “But”; I thought that was a big no-no!
Hitter Review
Austin Riley seems to be getting it going.
He has a .991 OPS in June, with four homers, a 16% K%, and a 13.5% Brl%. That’s great stuff.
Jeimer Candelario also likes the warmer temperatures. He homered twice yesterday to bring his season total to 14. His .506 SLG would be a career-high. He has been the Reds’ best hitter this year. Here are the home/road splits:
Home: .237/.341/.559, 9 HR, 25% K%, 12% BB%
Road: .271/.279/.459, 5 HR, 23% K%, 1% BB%
That’s a wild gap in walk rate and just a testament to how random stuff can get with splits. Great American Ballpark is a great park for him as a guy with a high fly ball rate but without a ton of swing speed behind it. There are a handful of parks where he wouldn’t have even ten homers by Savant’s expected home run metric. Good for Candelario, and good for you if you drafted him and held on through that early rough patch.
That will do it for the Saturday Daily Notes, the most grammar-approved notes in history… maybe.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Andrew Abbott
2. Dylan Cease
3. Chris Sale
4. Grayson Rodriguez
5. Nathan Eovaldi
6. DJ Herz
7. George Kirby
8. Jack Flaherty
9. Carlos Carrasco
10. Jose Quintana
11. Jake Bloss
12. Yariel Rodriguez
13. Kutter Crawford
14. Landon Knack
15. Chris Paddack
16. Erick Fedde
17. Brady Singer
18. Carlos Rodon
19. Jordan Montgomery
20. Trevor Rogers
21. Joey Estes
22. Shota Imanaga
23. Ryan Pepiot
24. Colin Rea
25. Dakota Hudson
26. Taijuan Walker
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Quintana (vs. CHC): 31.24 Points
2. Andrew Abbott (vs. BOS): 29.76 Points
3. Carlos Carrasco (vs. TOR): 27.1 Points
4. Chris Sale (vs. NYY): 26.85 Points
5. Jack Flaherty (vs. CWS): 26.56 Points
6. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. KC): 22.5 Points
7. Jordan Montgomery (vs. PHI): 19.9 Points
8. George Kirby (vs. MIA): 18.75 Points
9. Kutter Crawford (vs. CIN): 18.04 Points
10. Dylan Cease (vs. MIL): 17.71 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
2. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 16 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Dylan Cease (SD): 15 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
4. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
5. Chris Sale (ATL): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Jack Flaherty (DET): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. George Kirby (SEA): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Jose Quintana (NYM): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
9. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
10. DJ Herz (WSH): 12 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (ATL): 56.8 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
2. Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 55.7 Strike%, 26.6 Ball%
3. Dylan Cease (SD): 54.7 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
4. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 54.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
5. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 51.9 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
6. DJ Herz (WSH): 51.3 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
7. Jose Quintana (NYM): 50.5 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
8. Jack Flaherty (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
9. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
10. Daulton Jefferies (PIT): 49.1 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
11. Jake Bloss (HOU): 48.1 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
12. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 48.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
13. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 47.3 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
14. George Kirby (SEA): 47.1 Strike%, 29.4 Ball%
15. Yoendrys Gomez (NYY): 46.2 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby: 85 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.25 POUT
2. Colin Rea: 69 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.31 POUT
3. Kutter Crawford: 83 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.37 POUT
4. Erick Fedde: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
5. Joey Estes: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
6. Carlos Carrasco: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
7. Jordan Montgomery: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
8. Landon Knack: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
9. Trevor Rogers: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Andrew Abbott: 90 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.29 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 86.9
Chris Sale's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 89.2
Chris Sale's SI velo (15 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 96.1
Chris Sale's SL velo (36 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 80.5
Chris Sale's FF velo (32 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 96.4
Luis L. Ortiz's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.8
Dylan Cease's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.5
Carlos Carrasco's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.7
Carlos Carrasco's SI velo (14 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.0
Carlos Rodon's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.8
Daulton Jefferies's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.5
Carlos Rodon's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 81.9
Taijuan Walker's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.4
Shota Imanaga's FF velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.1
Dakota Hudson's FF velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.9
Kutter Crawford's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.4
Chris Paddack's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 76.5
Chris Paddack's FF velo (38 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 91.4
Kutter Crawford's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 76.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bowden Francis's FS usage (21.6%) up 15.8 points
Carlos Carrasco's SL usage (31.6%) up 11.5 points
Carlos Rodon's CH usage (21.5%) up 14.3 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (25.8%) up 15.6 points
Dakota Hudson's CH usage (16.7%) up 10.2 points
George Kirby's SL usage (35.3%) up 14.2 points
Grayson Rodriguez's CU usage (22.3%) up 10.8 points
Jose Quintana's CU usage (33.0%) up 11.7 points
Luis L. Ortiz's FF usage (44.3%) up 18.2 points
Luis L. Ortiz's FC usage (21.5%) up 14.5 points
Shota Imanaga's FS usage (44.6%) up 10.6 points
Taijuan Walker's SI usage (36.4%) up 12.0 points
Yariel Rodriguez's FS usage (19.2%) up 10.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Erik Miller Changeup: +19.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.5%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.8%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +15.8%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -15.7%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.5%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Erik Miller Slider: -14.0%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Tobias Myers 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +12.5%
Reynaldo Lopez Slider: -12.5%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.5%
Bryan Woo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Jesus Luzardo Changeup: +12.2%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +12.1%
George Kirby Slider: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 71 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 87 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 101 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Chris Sale - 94 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 75 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 87 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 44.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 40.5% K%
Garrett Crochet - 101 TBF, 38.6% K%
Paul Skenes - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
Chris Sale - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
Sean Manaea - 86 TBF, 30.2% K%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 40.3% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 101 TBF, 32.7% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 70 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Andre Pallante - 75 TBF, 56.9% GB%
David Peterson - 76 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Tanner Houck - 78 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Brayan Bello - 105 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Griffin Canning - 102 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Chris Sale - 94 TBF, 52.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 94 TBF, 30.9 K%, 7.4 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.2 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 57 TBF, 33.3 K%, 7.0 BB%, 61.8% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 87 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 47.4% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 40.5 K%, 5.4 BB%, 62.5% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Pablo Lopez: 7.66 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Shota Imanaga: 7.46 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
Alec Marsh: 7.0 ERA, 3.7 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 6.82 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 6.12 ERA, 3.2 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 6.12 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
Chris Paddack: 6.75 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Kutter Crawford: 5.97 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
Ryan Pepiot: 5.61 ERA, 3.34 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.17 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Luckiest
Tyler Anderson: 2.4 ERA, 5.65 SIERA
Michael Lorenzen: 2.12 ERA, 4.95 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 2.35 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 3.08 ERA, 5.43 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 3.45 ERA, 5.72 SIERA
Corbin Burnes: 1.64 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 1.64 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Mitchell Parker: 2.73 ERA, 4.82 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 3.03 ERA, 4.95 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 1.86 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
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