MLB Daily Notes - June 23rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Joe Ryan went CGSO yesterday with a 55.4% Strike and 25.9% Ball%. That’s a top-70 Ball% for a single start this year. Throwing strikes has been Ryan’s key to success this year, he’s currently first in the league (10 GS minimum) with his 28.6% Ball%, and his 4.1% BB% is fourth-best. He also has delivered a 14.6% SwStr%, so he’s truly been one of the best pitchers in the league.
And he does it with this four-seamer that has a ridiculous 16% SwStr% on the year. That’s the fourth-best SwStr% on a 4-seamer (Castillo, Kirby, Strider) in the league.
Great pitch, and he backs it up with a good splitter. It would be a little more settling if he had more than just these two pitches and didn’t depend so much on his fastball, but the four-seamer being this elite is nothing new - it’s been this way since he got the call-up, so we can pretty much believe it.
Blake Snell was probably the most impressive pitcher of the day, yet again. He put up a 22.7% SwStr% and a 48.5% Strike%. He still threw a lot of balls (41.2% Ball%), and his ball rate leads the league for the season, but he counters by allowing very few balls in play. His season 13.3% BIP% is second-lowest. It’s very hard to get a ball in play off of Snell. Most of the time that’s good, but plenty of times it’s bad if he’s walking people (11.8% BB% for the year).
However, over his last five starts - he’s not walking people. He has a 44.2% K% and an 8% BB% in these five starts with a 52.2% Strike%, 36.9% Ball%, and 10.8% BIP%. He has added a 49% GB% to that. It’s been an insane run for him with a 0.29 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP - both leading the league in this time frame.
Braxton Garrett continued his fantastic season with a 60.2% Strike% and a 13:0 K:BB against the Pirates. It’s been a true breakout season for the lefty who didn’t even make the Opening Day rotation. He has an elite 24.2% K-BB% for the year with a 14.4% SwStr% and a 50.1% Strike%.
He’s doing it with a slider/sinker/cutter trio, which is pretty unique and really interesting. The slider is great, and he has the fastballs to back it up.
There are a few different ways to be a successful pitcher in the league. From what I’ve seen, you should fit into one of these molds if you want to have success in the bigs.
Have a very good fastball and at least a decent breaking/offspeed pitch
Have a very good breaking ball with a good fastball
Have a very good breaking ball with multiple fastball variations behind it (sinker, cutter, four-seam)
I’m not sure where changeups really factor in. Changeups don’t seem to work very well on their own, they kind of go hand-in-hand with a fastball. Maybe I will investigate this more some day.
The Pirates are completely falling apart, and part of that has been the regerssion of Mitch Keller. I have been a believer in his breakout, but I have been citing his low SwStr% for the whole year. He was depending on called strikes more than any other pitcher early on, and that’s shaky ground.
During his really good stretch of starts where he captured everybody’s attention, he was routinely going above 53% with the Strike% but still putting up pretty mediocre SwStr% marks. That means he was getting a ton of called strikes.
Now the SwStr% has been down even further and the called strikes have fallen back toward normal, and it hasn’t been great. The walks are up, the strikeouts are down, and he has a 4.07 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in these last four with a bad 10.8 K-BB%.
The lesson to be learned here is always skeptical of high called strike rates. A fantastic resource for this is the CS% vs. SwStr% scatter plot on the MLB dashboard.
The bottom-right of that plot will be pitchers with high Called K% and low SwStr%. The red dots down there should be guys with expected regression. That means they’re getting a lot of strikeouts without the whiffs, which means they’re building their house on called strikes, which is not solid ground.
The reverse is true. If we find green dots near the top-left, we should expect more strikeouts to come. Those names right now
Max Scherzer
Matthew Boyd
Bailey Ober
Yusei Kikuchi
Sandy Alcantara
Cristian Javier
Tyler Anderson
Alrighty, let’s move onward! There wasn’t much action yesterday so I’m just going to stop writing my own things now, and give you the rest of the report with no further comment, enjoy!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Ryan (vs. BOS): 40.45 Points
2. Braxton Garrett (vs. PIT): 37.95 Points
3. Blake Snell (vs. SF): 37.7 Points
4. JP Sears (vs. CLE): 24.75 Points
5. Bryce Elder (vs. PHI): 24.75 Points
6. Bryan Woo (vs. NYY): 22.99 Points
7. Tommy Henry (vs. WSH): 22.21 Points
8. Aaron Nola (vs. ATL): 21.1 Points
9. Mitch Keller (vs. MIA): 20.75 Points
10. Jake Irvin (vs. ARI): 19.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (SD): 22 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Joe Ryan (MIN): 16 Whiffs (112 Pitches)
3. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 15 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
4. JP Sears (OAK): 13 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
5. Bryan Woo (SEA): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Domingo German (NYY): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Logan Allen (CLE): 12 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
8. Austin Cox (KC): 12 Whiffs (53 Pitches)
9. Shane McClanahan (TB): 11 Whiffs (66 Pitches)
10. Bryce Elder (ATL): 11 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. JP Sears (OAK): 60.4 Strike%, 25.5 Ball%
2. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 60.2 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
3. Joe Ryan (MIN): 55.4 Strike%, 25.9 Ball%
4. Logan Allen (CLE): 51.7 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
5. Jake Irvin (WSH): 51.7 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
6. Shane McClanahan (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
7. Jakob Junis (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 25.8 Ball%
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 49.5 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
9. Mitch Keller (PIT): 49.5 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
10. Bryan Woo (SEA): 49.5 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
11. Alex Wood (SF): 48.7 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
12. Blake Snell (SD): 48.5 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%
13. Bryce Elder (ATL): 48.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
14. Domingo German (NYY): 47.3 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
15. Austin Cox (KC): 45.3 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jake Irvin's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 82.1
Jake Irvin's FF velo (45 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 95.2
Joe Ryan's FS velo (35 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.3
Bryan Woo's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 84.7
Shane McClanahan's FF velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.1
Mitch Keller's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 87.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's SI usage (31.1%) up 13.9 points
Alex Wood's CH usage (31.6%) up 12.1 points
Austin Cox's FC usage (18.9%) up 11.4 points
Bryan Woo's SI usage (36.6%) up 10.5 points
Jake Irvin's FF usage (51.7%) up 14.3 points
Mitch Keller's ST usage (25.2%) up 11.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +24.5%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -22.5%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +17.6%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +16.6%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -16.3%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +15.7%
Zach Davies Sinker: -15.4%
Kyle Bradish 4-Seam Fastball: -15.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +15.3%
Jhony Brito Sinker: +15.2%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +14.9%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +14.6%
Austin Gomber Slider: +14.6%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Chase Anderson 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Brandon Williamson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -13.9%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +13.9%
Trevor Williams Slider: +13.7%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +13.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -13.4%
JP Sears Sweeper: -13.4%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Eury Perez Curveball: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 37.2% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 66 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 103 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
James Paxton - 76 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 77 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 47.3% K%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 41.4% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Taj Bradley - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Lance Lynn - 76 TBF, 34.2% K%
Reid Detmers - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Bryan Woo - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 31.9% K%
James Paxton - 76 TBF, 31.6% K%
Eury Perez - 83 TBF, 31.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 40.7% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 39.1% K-BB%
Matthew Boyd - 87 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Bryan Woo - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 83 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
James Paxton - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 82 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Sandy Alcantara - 109 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 75 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 105 TBF, 60.8% GB%
George Kirby - 71 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Bryce Elder - 95 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 66 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 73 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 47.3 K%, 6.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 41.4 K%, 2.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
James Paxton - 76 TBF, 31.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Josh Sborz - 44 TBF, 36.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Matthew Boyd - 87 TBF, 31.0 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 77 TBF, 31.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Zach Eflin - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 7.2 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Blake Snell - +7.1% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +3.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.8% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +3.4% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +3.8% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Dean Kremer - +4.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
George Kirby - +4.0% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.0% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.5% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Jakob Junis - +4.3% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Byron Buxton (MIN) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Drew Waters (KC) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 112.2mph - home_run
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 111.9mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.7mph - single
Randy Arozarena (TB) - 110.9mph - single
Austin Riley (ATL) - 110.5mph - single
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) - 110.4mph - home_run
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.4mph - field_out
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 109.6mph - home_run
Nelson Cruz (SD) - 109.5mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 109.2mph - foul
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