MLB Daily Notes - June 23rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I have a baseball game of my own at 12:30 today, which throws a wrench into getting The Week Ahead out when I usually do. We also have people coming over tonight, so I don’t know how this will all go. You might be wondering - is this guy good at baseball? And the answer is that it depends. If you randomly picked a million adult males, I would say I’m better at sports than 80% of them. If my church or neighborhood or the parents at my kids’ school ever spun up a baseball or basketball team, I would probably be the best player. But compared to people who are actually good at sports, I’m not good at sports. That’s kind of how it goes. Most people are really bad at a thing, some people are good at a thing, and then a small percentage of people are so good at it that they make the other 98% of the world look really bad at it.
My problem with sports has always been that I am puny and apathetic. I’ve never sniffed even 155 pounds, and losing has never bothered me. Loose ball? No thanks. Dive for that ground ball up the middle? I’d rather keep my legs clean. The puny part comes into play in baseball for sure with the swing speed. One time last year, I squared up a ball at the perfect angle; it just felt perfect off the bat. Barrel City, I was pimping it - bat flip and all. Routine flyout to center. I play shortstop for the team I’m on now, and anything hit to my right turns into a really freaking long throw that I have a lot of trouble with sometimes. I came up playing slow pitch softball, I had never even played real baseball until last summer - and man those bases are far away. The good news is that the league is almost entirely men over 35 who can’t do much in the running department. So you have a lot of time to get the ball to first. And I am still just 33 and pretty good on my feet, which makes me look like Rickey Freakin’ Henderson on the basepaths. So I just kinda tap ground balls and soft line drives and then run. It works out for now, but I don’t think I will age very well in this league.
Pitcher Review
Bailey Ober went nuts against the Athletics.
9 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 0 BB, 23 whiffs, 25.8% SwStr%
That was the third-highest SwStr% of the season with 80+ pitches. Crazy good stuff from Ober.
The pitch mix stuff on the season:
Strong numbers on the four-seamer, changeup, and cutter, and he now qualifies in our magic formula with the 14.2% SwStr% and 33% Ball%. Great stuff.
Jameson Taillon struck out 10 Mets.
7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, 16.1% SwStr%
I’ve been viewing Taillon as underrated for the last few years. He has never been bad for long stretches, and he’s had some runs at it where he’s quite good.
His numbers look pretty bad this year, though, with just a 9% SwStr%.
The command is what has gotten it done for him; his Location+ sits at 108, while his Stuff+ is down at 90.
Last year, he threw that four-seamer 1.2mph faster, and it had a better 9.4% SwStr%. The cutter and sweeper were also better at generating whiffs, so he’s taken a step back in that regard across his arsenal. Taillon will have more mediocre starts than good ones, but in a deep league, he’s good enough to roster - and he’s a viable streaming option in any kind of league.
Zack Wheeler has bounced back after a little bit of a down stretch. The SwStr% was bad for a few starts there but has returned nicely in the last two.
His season K-BB% is 19.8%, which is very strong, but a couple of points below where he was last year. Some comparisons on him:
2023: 14.7% SwStr%, 48.8% Strike%, 26.8% K%, 5.0% BB%, .273 xwOBA
2024: 13.5% SwStr%, 49.2% Strike%, 27.2% K%, 7.4% BB%, .272 xwOBA
The significant differences lie in the SwStr% and the BB%, and both of those have gone in the wrong direction - but it hasn’t really hurt him. The fastball velocity is down a bit from last year, but not even a full mile per hour, so you’re looking at a clear top-five SP still, but note that he might be on the slate decline at the age of 34.
Jared Jones had a good bounce-back start:
7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 3 BB, 14.9% SwStr%, 37.2% Ball%
It's great to see after those two scary starts prior. The elite command is gone, however. His six highest ball rates of the season are in his last six starts.
In his last six starts, he has a 13.0% SwStr% and 37.8% Ball% with a 12.3% BB% and an 8.3% K-BB%. I would be looking to capitalize here and sell him if you can still get a strong return, the walks are a real concern for me.
Drew Thorpe had a better start but still has not thrown strikes at Major League hitters.
6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 K, 4 BB
He has 11 walks and nine strikeouts in 14.1 innings, not good at all.
There were a lot of other pitcher performances to note, of course, but I don’t have much time this morning!
Hitter Review
I am wondering if Alec Burleson won’t be that mid-season hitter add that makes a big difference for fantasy teams down the stretch. He blasted two homers yesterday to bring his season line to :
247 PA, .281/.316/.468, .784 OPS, 12 HR, 14.6% K%, 4.0% BB%, 7.0% Brl%
He makes a lot of contact at 79.8%, and it’s typically good quality as shown by the very nice .342 xwOBA and low 39% GB%. He seems like a very solid Major League hitter, and he’s been overlooked.
Against lefties, he’s at a .578 OPS, so most of his damage is done against righties (.865 OPS). In a daily league where you can sit him for someone better when the Cardinals face a lefty, he’ll be pretty valuable for your offense.
Chas McCormick has been a bust this year, but he hit his second and third homers of the year yesterday.
133 PA, .225/.286/.358, .644 OPS, 3 HR, 4 SB
He hasn’t been on the field all year, but the production hasn’t been there when he has been. His 22 homers and 19 steals a year ago made people draft this guy as an OF2 in fantasy. The lesson here, I think, is to always distrust the veteran breakout season. If you have your best year at age 28, there’s a good chance it was an outlier year. There are exceptions, but I’m much more likely to believe in the 24-year-old breakout year than the 28.
Wyatt Langford also homered. his third of the year and the second time he’s hit a home run over a fence. The OPS is now at .677, but it’s certainly been moving in the right direction.
Over these last 15 days, he’s a .348/.400/.609 hitter with two homers, a 14% K%, and a 10.3% Brl%. Many people will believe he’s finally figured it out and will rocket launch off from here. That could happen, but the improvements will likely be slow and steady rather than just happening overnight.
If he’s available on the waiver wire in your league, I would add him, the upside is too great to leave there given that he’s showing signs of life at the plate. His struggles this year were never about striking out too much, he’s at just a 20.5% K% for the year - it’s just been about weak contact and bad launch angles and stuff.
Good for the Rangers for just sticking with him every day in the Major League lineup; that’s how you should do it, in my opinion. If you’re going to give a starting job to a rookie, you should give them a full fair go at it and let them work on things at the Major League level rather than going back and forth to the bench and AAA.
It was a pretty cool day for the long ball, we saw dingers from Elly De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Bryce Harper. Some of the game’s biggest names! And Jackson Merill hit another one oh boy!
That’s it - happy Sunday!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober
2. Logan Gilbert
3. Michael Wacha
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Jared Jones
6. Jameson Taillon
7. Ronel Blanco
8. Zach Eflin
9. Jon Gray
10. Tyler Glasnow
11. Kenta Maeda
12. Corbin Burnes
13. Frankie Montas
14. Mitchell Parker
15. Marcus Stroman
16. Cal Quantrill
17. Drew Thorpe
18. Ben Lively
19. Shaun Anderson
20. Tylor Megill
21. Nick Pivetta
22. Carlos Rodriguez
23. Charlie Morton
24. Jose Berrios
25. Miles Mikolas
26. Zach Plesac
27. Tommy Henry
28. JP Sears
29. Randy Vasquez
30. Jordan Hicks
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (vs. OAK): 37.85 Points
2. Tyler Glasnow (vs. LAA): 36.55 Points
3. Jameson Taillon (vs. NYM): 34.15 Points
4. Zack Wheeler (vs. ARI): 32.55 Points
5. Logan Gilbert (vs. MIA): 31.0 Points
6. Jared Jones (vs. TB): 28.15 Points
7. Drew Thorpe (vs. DET): 23.9 Points
8. Jon Gray (vs. KC): 22.3 Points
9. Marcus Stroman (vs. ATL): 22.01 Points
10. Ronel Blanco (vs. BAL): 21.55 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (MIN): 23 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 19 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
3. Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 17 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
4. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Jared Jones (PIT): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Zach Eflin (TB): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
9. Michael Wacha (KC): 13 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
10. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (MIN): 56.2 Strike%, 21.3 Ball%
2. Michael Wacha (KC): 52.7 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
3. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 52.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
4. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 51.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
5. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 51.4 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
6. Ben Lively (CLE): 51.2 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
7. Kenta Maeda (DET): 51.1 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
8. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 51.1 Strike%, 26.1 Ball%
9. Zach Eflin (TB): 48.4 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
10. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 47.9 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
11. Tylor Megill (NYM): 47.4 Strike%, 42.3 Ball%
12. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 47.3 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
13. Frankie Montas (CIN): 47.2 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
14. Jon Gray (TEX): 47.2 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
15. Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 47.2 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober: 89 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.3 POUT
2. Tyler Glasnow: 74 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.52 POUT
3. Logan Gilbert: 92 Pitches, 24 Outs, 3.83 POUT
4. Frankie Montas: 72 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.0 POUT
5. Jon Gray: 72 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.0 POUT
6. Corbin Burnes: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
7. Jameson Taillon: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
8. Zach Eflin: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
9. Zack Wheeler: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
10. Marcus Stroman: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Randy Vasquez's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.1
Osvaldo Bido's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 86.8
Tylor Megill's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 86.4
Michael Wacha's SI velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.2
Randy Vasquez's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 83.2
Miles Mikolas's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 77.4
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.4
Tyler Glasnow's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.2
Logan Gilbert's FS velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.3
Tommy Henry's FF velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 88.7
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (27 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 80.5
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (45 pitches) DOWN -4.1mph to 93.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Houser's FF usage (31.5%) up 10.5 points
Adrian Houser's CU usage (24.1%) up 15.7 points
Ben Lively's ST usage (20.7%) up 11.8 points
Carlos Rodriguez's SI usage (38.9%) up 16.7 points
Corbin Burnes's SL usage (21.1%) up 10.2 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (50.0%) up 11.0 points
Jose Berrios's CH usage (31.4%) up 13.7 points
Logan Gilbert's SL usage (43.5%) up 13.5 points
Marcus Stroman's SL usage (26.9%) up 16.8 points
Osvaldo Bido's FC usage (27.4%) up 21.1 points
Tommy Henry's CH usage (31.9%) up 13.2 points
Tyler Glasnow's SI usage (17.6%) up 14.9 points
Zack Wheeler's FC usage (19.6%) up 15.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Erik Miller Changeup: +19.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.5%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.8%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.6%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +15.8%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -15.7%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.5%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Erik Miller Slider: -14.0%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Randy Vasquez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Tobias Myers 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Reynaldo Lopez Slider: -12.5%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +12.5%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.5%
Bryan Woo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Jesus Luzardo Changeup: +12.2%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +12.1%
George Kirby Slider: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 98 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 75 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 87 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 99 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 44.8% K%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 40.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 40.8% K%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Paul Skenes - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Max Fried - 74 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 40.3% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 36.7% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 34.2% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 70 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 78 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 58.5% GB%
David Peterson - 76 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Andre Pallante - 75 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Tanner Houck - 78 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Sonny Gray - 73 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 105 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Griffin Canning - 102 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.2 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 87 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 47.4% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.2 BB%, 63.3% GB%
Taj Bradley - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.9 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 40.8 K%, 4.1 BB%, 58.5% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Ryan Feltner: 8.42 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 7.66 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
Shota Imanaga: 7.46 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
Alec Marsh: 7.0 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 6.12 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 6.12 ERA, 3.21 SIERA
Kutter Crawford: 5.97 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Chris Paddack: 6.75 ERA, 4.4 SIERA
Ryan Pepiot: 5.61 ERA, 3.34 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.17 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Luckiest
Tyler Anderson: 2.4 ERA, 5.83 SIERA
Michael Lorenzen: 2.12 ERA, 4.96 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 2.35 ERA, 5.13 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 1.35 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 3.57 ERA, 5.73 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 3.34 ERA, 5.44 SIERA
Jared Koenig: 0.61 ERA, 2.5 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 2.17 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 1.71 ERA, 3.51 SIERA
Justin Steele: 1.71 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Logan Gilbert - +4.9% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +2.0% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Erick Fedde - +3.1% CSW%, -6.5 BB%
Ronel Blanco - +7.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Tyler Glasnow - +3.5% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Ryan Feltner - +3.3% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Justin Steele - +3.3% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +6.2% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +2.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Derek Law - +3.5% CSW%, -9.0 BB%
Kyle Harrison - +2.9% CSW%, -6.9 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +5.4% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Yohan Ramirez - +2.2% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Alec Burleson (STL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Andy Pages (LAD) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Brendan Donovan (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Chas McCormick (HOU) 3 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Dominic Canzone (SEA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gavin Lux (LAD) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Chas McCormick, Yesterday: 110.2 Previous High: 109.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 115.5mph - home_run
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 112.9mph - nan
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) - 112.7mph - field_out
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 112.1mph - single
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.6mph - home_run
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) - 110.7mph - field_out
Michael Conforto (SF) - 110.5mph - double
Chas McCormick (HOU) - 110.2mph - home_run
Nico Hoerner (CHC) - 110.1mph - field_out
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.9mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Matt Vierling - 72 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, 0.104 Diff
Leody Taveras - 57 PA, 0.135 wOBA, 0.236 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Adam Duvall - 67 PA, 0.176 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.094 Diff
Taylor Ward - 69 PA, 0.271 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 71 PA, 0.242 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
J.P. Crawford - 84 PA, 0.278 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Maikel Garcia - 78 PA, 0.185 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Nico Hoerner - 58 PA, 0.189 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
George Springer - 66 PA, 0.208 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Paul Goldschmidt - 83 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Bottom 10
Josh Smith - 56 PA, 0.48 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.161 Diff
Charlie Blackmon - 59 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, -0.145 Diff
Steven Kwan - 67 PA, 0.522 wOBA, 0.408 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Carlos Correa - 80 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Carlos Santana - 68 PA, 0.449 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 73 PA, 0.458 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Ceddanne Rafaela - 67 PA, 0.37 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 57 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Jose Miranda - 68 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Royce Lewis - 68 PA, 0.526 wOBA, 0.44 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Josh Lowe - 47 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 84 PA, 57 BIP, 14 Brls, 24.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 73 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Jose Siri - 65 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 78 PA, 58 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 69 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 87 PA, 60 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 81 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Heliot Ramos - 87 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
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