MLB Daily Notes - June 24th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
The knuckleball came back yesterday, so that’s always fun. No disrespect to Ernie Clement’s knuckler, but we had a real one from the arm of Padres’ Matt Waldron. He landed it for a strike at an average rate and even got a whiff on it. Nothing really to talk about here, but knuckleball are always fun.
Lance Lynn had another decent start going 5.2 innings with three earned and a nice 7:1 K:BB. The SwStr% was way up there at 18% and he once again put up great numbers with various pitches.
A 53% Strike% and an 18% SwStr% is really, really good - so there’s certainly hope for Lynn this year. Kinda wish I hadn’t dropped him!
Griffin Canning had a really nice start in Coors Field. I guess you could say it’s pretty easy to pitch when you’re up by 20 runs, but he got the job done.
The four-seamer was good, and the slider/changeup combo was elite. Really impressive numbers. For the year, he has a 48% Strike% (slightly above average) and a 13.6% SwStr% (1.5 points above league average), so that means he’s a guy who can get a bunch of whiffs without wasting too many pitches. Pretty interesting stuff, he’s a worthwhile add in deeper leagues.
Luis Severino is busted. Just a 43% Strike% and a 4.2% SwStr% yesterday. He hasn’t had much command at all. Here are his numbers for the year
Pretty decent four-seam numbers, but shy of elite, and there are no pitches backing it up. Really disappointing stuff. He has just a 19.7% K% right now and there aren’t many things pointing toward him improving.
James Paxton left the game early but wasn’t putting up good numbers before exiting with just a 7.9% SwStr% and 41.3% Strike%. He’s expected to be okay and make his next start, it sounds like, but this serves as a reminder how fragile this guy is. You would have been wise to sell high on him if that were possible prior to any bad news coming out.
Reese Olson also had a nice start as well with nine strikeouts in 5.1 innings. 50% Strike%, 14.8% SwStr%, 46% GB%.
For the season:
So, so dependent on the slider, and that’s never something we like to see. The four-seamer is very easy to put into play, and it doesn’t stay on the ground. He’ll have some very bad starts with this kind of pitch mix, but he is clearly capable of some good ones as well if he can have some luck with the fastballs to set up that great slider.
Josiah Gray kept going with the sinker usage. He didn’t give up any runs but had four walks, here’s the crazy ugly pitch mix trend plot for him:
He is a pitcher without an identity. Very sad in our age of the psychological man.
His best fastball would appear to be the cutter (13% SwStr%, 46% Strike%), but the sinker is the one he throws the fewest balls with, so that’s probably what he's going for when using that pitch a lot.
He could probably be a very high K% pitcher if he stuck mostly to the Cutter + Slider + Curveball, but that would probably result in a massive walk rate with it.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Griffin Canning (vs. COL): 29.1 Points
2. Reese Olson (vs. MIN): 28.99 Points
3. Justin Steele (vs. STL): 27.9 Points
4. Tanner Bibee (vs. MIL): 25.3 Points
5. Max Scherzer (vs. PHI): 24.7 Points
6. Jose Berrios (vs. OAK): 24.7 Points
7. Josiah Gray (vs. SD): 23.19 Points
8. Pablo Lopez (vs. DET): 22.7 Points
9. Luis Severino (vs. TEX): 21.3 Points
10. Ronel Blanco (vs. LAD): 17.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 19 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Lance Lynn (CWS): 19 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Griffin Canning (LAA): 18 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 17 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
6. Max Scherzer (NYM): 14 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
7. Jose Berrios (TOR): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
8. Josiah Gray (WSH): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
9. Reese Olson (DET): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
10. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 58.0 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
2. Lance Lynn (CWS): 53.3 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
3. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 52.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
4. Griffin Canning (LAA): 51.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
5. Max Scherzer (NYM): 50.5 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
6. Reese Olson (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
7. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 49.3 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
8. Jared Shuster (ATL): 49.3 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
9. Jose Berrios (TOR): 49.0 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
10. Justin Steele (CHC): 48.3 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
11. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 47.6 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
12. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 46.9 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
13. Matt Waldron (SD): 46.8 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
14. Bryce Miller (SEA): 45.3 Strike%, 41.1 Ball%
15. Jon Gray (TEX): 45.1 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.6
Steven Matz's CH velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.5
Bobby Miller's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 91.8
Lance Lynn's FC velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.6
Hogan Harris's CH velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 78.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bobby Miller's SI usage (57.5%) up 20.4 points
Bryce Miller's SL usage (32.6%) up 16.8 points
Chase Anderson's FF usage (47.4%) up 16.1 points
Dean Kremer's FC usage (35.6%) up 16.3 points
Hogan Harris's FF usage (54.0%) up 10.2 points
James Paxton's FF usage (66.7%) up 10.1 points
Jared Shuster's SL usage (45.2%) up 12.4 points
Jordan Lyles's FC usage (17.3%) up 12.0 points
Jose Berrios's CH usage (34.4%) up 15.8 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (31.3%) up 24.9 points
Josiah Gray's ST usage (16.2%) up 13.0 points
Merrill Kelly's FF usage (41.4%) up 13.6 points
Merrill Kelly's SI usage (26.4%) up 13.4 points
Osvaldo Bido's FF usage (36.0%) up 10.3 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (28.1%) up 15.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +27.7%
Shintaro Fujinami Split-Finger: -27.4%
Shintaro Fujinami 4-Seam Fastball: +26.9%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -22.5%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +19.3%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +17.6%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.3%
Bryce Miller Slider: +16.8%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +16.6%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +16.5%
Kyle Bradish 4-Seam Fastball: -15.4%
Jhony Brito Sinker: +15.2%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +14.9%
Shintaro Fujinami Sweeper: +14.9%
Bobby Miller Sinker: +14.8%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +14.6%
Austin Gomber Slider: +14.6%
Merrill Kelly 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Brandon Williamson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.0%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +13.9%
Trevor Williams Slider: +13.7%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -13.4%
JP Sears Sweeper: -13.4%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: -12.5%
Jesus Luzardo Changeup: +12.4%
Taijuan Walker 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
Eury Perez Curveball: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Whitlock - 80 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 37.2% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 70 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 89 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 71 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 102 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 71 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 82 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 47.3% K%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 41.4% K%
Dylan Cease - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Taj Bradley - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Reid Detmers - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Lance Lynn - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
Pablo Lopez - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
Aaron Nola - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 40.7% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 39.1% K-BB%
Matthew Boyd - 87 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 82 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
James Paxton - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 111 TBF, 65.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 109 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 75 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 105 TBF, 60.8% GB%
George Kirby - 71 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 89 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Bryce Elder - 95 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 100 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 97 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 47.3 K%, 6.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 87 TBF, 41.4 K%, 2.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
James Paxton - 90 TBF, 30.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 89 TBF, 28.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 56.7% GB%
Jon Gray - 65 TBF, 27.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 68 TBF, 27.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Matthew Boyd - 87 TBF, 31.0 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 102 TBF, 32.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Zach Eflin - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Dean Kremer - +3.9% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Blake Snell - +7.1% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.1% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.8% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Garrett Whitlock - +5.6% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Zac Gallen - +4.6% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
George Kirby - +4.0% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +3.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Ryne Nelson - +3.3% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Griffin Canning - +2.3% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Jakob Junis - +5.3% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Hitters
Some interesting hitter names showing up here. Andrew Vaughn is a magic formula qualifier with his sub-20% K% and 16% Brl% over the last three weeks. He has not had trouble striking out this year, but the barrel rate has been middling and the GB% is a bit high. He still looks pretty good under the hood though and I would expect him to beat his lackluster .770 OPS going forward.
Elly De La Cruz makes an appearance on the GOOD LUCK side of the wOBA vs. xwOBA table. But his K% is down 26.8%, his contact% is up to 71.4%, and the GB% is down to 58% (it was a 70% a few days ago). He’ll be a guy to beat his expected stuff with that foot speed he has, but there’s no doubt he’s been a little bit fortunate to have a 1.063 OPS to this point.
And Patrick Bailey is making a push into fantasy relevancy. He’s slashing a strong .326/.350/.547 in 103 PAs with a 13.7% Brl% and 24.3% K%. That’s a really, really good line. This is way better than what he did in the minors though (.276/.358/.419, 23.3% K%), so that’s a reason for serious skepticism. You don’t just immediately get better when facing better pitching.
Multiple Barrels
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Edward Olivares (KC) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mike Ford (SEA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Seth Brown (OAK) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
James Outman, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 110.7
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 113.1mph - foul
Jake Burger (CWS) - 113.0mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.4mph - home_run
Josh Bell (CLE) - 112.2mph - double
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.2mph - double
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 110.8mph - single
James Outman (LAD) - 110.8mph - double
Max Kepler (MIN) - 110.6mph - foul
Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.5mph - home_run
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 110.4mph - grounded_into_double_play
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Rowdy Tellez - 61 PA, 0.151 wOBA, 0.256 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 80 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.433 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Pavin Smith - 69 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 72 PA, 0.258 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Zach McKinstry - 71 PA, 0.191 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Alex Kirilloff - 60 PA, 0.248 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 68 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 59 PA, 0.257 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Trea Turner - 80 PA, 0.328 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Gleyber Torres - 66 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Bottom 10
Corbin Carroll - 84 PA, 0.474 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.136 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 71 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.135 Diff
Austin Hays - 72 PA, 0.41 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, -0.131 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 77 PA, 0.493 wOBA, 0.383 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Michael Harris II - 72 PA, 0.447 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 73 PA, 0.427 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Eddie Rosario - 68 PA, 0.461 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Geraldo Perdomo - 73 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Bryson Stott - 69 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Lane Thomas - 74 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Joey Wiemer - 65 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 84 PA, 55 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Ryan O'Hearn - 51 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Drew Waters - 55 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Tommy Pham - 69 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Corey Seager - 86 PA, 64 BIP, 13 Brls, 20.3 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 76 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 84 PA, 0.541 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 86 PA, 0.486 xwOBA
David Peralta - 47 PA, 0.477 xwOBA
Ryan O'Hearn - 51 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Travis d'Arnaud - 54 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 87 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 80 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Will Benson - 51 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 78 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 68 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 141 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Kevin Newman - 52 PA, 79 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 80 PA, 147 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Tucupita Marcano - 53 PA, 92 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 75 PA, 114 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 53 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 79 PA, 143 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 81 PA, 134 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Maikel Garcia - 76 PA, 125 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Marcus Semien - 91 PA, 196 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
TJ Friedl - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Andrew Velazquez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jarren Duran - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nick Madrigal - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 17 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 16 Attempts (12 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Christian Yelich - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Josh Lowe - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Wander Franco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 8 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jarren Duran - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
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