MLB Daily Notes - June 24th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
We took an 8-7 win in the men’s league baseball game last night after jumping out to a 7-1 lead. There were so many errors, strange swings, and awkward hit balls that it’s really wild to watch dudes like me play baseball after you watch Major Leaguers play. Every ground ball is made to look extremely difficult. There’s probably a .600 OBP on ground balls in that league. The infield is so wild, like a Plinko board with the ball jumping around. It must be so much easier to field a ground ball on a professional surface. It’s wild to me to think that a ground ball would just go in a straight line with consistent hops and stuff. But this is the cross we bear, you know.
Some of the swings are hilarious, too. You’ve got guys swinging a baseball bat like a sledge hammer and balls hitting people in the face and everything, it’s glorious. What a privilege it is to still be able to play sports as an adult. Shout out to my wife for taking care of things when I go do that.
I don’t think I sat down for more than three consecutive minutes after church yesterday, so I have no idea what happened in baseball besides that the Pirates lost, and so did my home league fantasy team.
Pitcher Review
It looks like Jake Irvin struck out 10, though.
He now has a 22.1% K% and 5.2% BB% on the season, a pretty solid 17% K-BB%. The 46% GB% is useful too. Irvin should be considered a better-than-average big-league starter.
Nothing blows you away here, but he has non-awful marks on multiple pitches, and he commands his arsenal pretty well. The walk rate is strong, and the Location+ sits at 105, one of the league's better marks. Good for you, Jake.
Pablo Lopez put the second-straight huge number up against the Athletics. He struck out 14. Holy cow.
8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 14 K, 1 BB, 18.6% SwStr%, 54.9% Strike%
Full-on attack mode. That was just one day after Bailey Ober cruised through a complete game with ten strikeouts. So Lopez & Ober combined for 17 innings, six hits, two runs, 24 strikeouts, and one walk.
The Athletics are now down to a .662 OPS on the season and a .632 mark in June with a 27% K%.
Nestor Cortes has been quietly quite good this year with his 3.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 23.1% K%, and 4.5% BB%. He had one of his better efforts of the year last night:
7 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 7 K, 0 BB, 17.6% SwStr%, 49% Strike%
For the year, his SwStr% is 12.2%, which is pretty mediocre, and that explains the lower 23.1% K%. But the command has been great and he has steered clear of hard contact (.278 xwOBA). He is more of a command pitcher (98 Stuff+, 103 Location+), and he gives up a lot of fly balls - so eventually he will run into some bad outings, but it’s more good than bad with Cortes, and he’s probably a bit of an under-valued fantasy asset.
Reese Olson put up another strong start, this time against the White Sox. He struck out just three in 6.1 innings, and the Strike% was bad at 40.2% with a 39.2% Ball%. So the command wasn’t there at all, but he made pitches when he had to and took advantage of the White Sox matchup to cruise through to a quality start and win.
He threw the four-seamer under 20% of the time, his second-lowest usage of the year. Maybe that explains the lack of strikes.
Any time you throw 38% sliders, you’ll have a few more balls since that pitch is tougher to command. The sinker usage was up a bit. Prior to June, he was:
27% Slider
25% 4-Seam
23% Changeup
19% Sinker
6% Curveball
He had a brutal two-start stretch where he gave up 12 earned runs on 22 hits, and since then the pitch mix looks like this:
31% Slider
24% Sinker
19% 4-Seam
18% Changeup
8% Curveball
So, the sinker and four-seamer have flipped. Neither pitch is good, but at least he keeps the ball on the ground with the sinker (57%). To me, it makes sense to prefer the sinker to the four-seamer if neither will get whiffs. At least the hard contact on the sinker won’t hurt as much. Keep an eye on that, but my opinion on Olson is not changing - he will have some very good starts and some very bad ones, and overall, I don’t think you’ll love what you’ll get. This seems to be the general rule to follow with pitchers that don’t have a good fastball.
Nick Lodolo had no command of the ball yesterday.
4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 4 BB, 39% Strike%, 40.3% Ball%
You never want to see more balls than strikes, but that’s what Lodolo did yesterday. Since his most recent IL stint, he’s done this:
11.6% SwStr%, 43.9% Strike%, 36.8% Ball%, 19.9% K%, 6.6% BB%
Those are pretty alarming numbers. Given the lack of whiffs, the shaky command, and the continued injury concerns, I would be looking to move away from Lodolo in redraft leagues.
The good times came to an end for Jonathan Cannon, who gave up eight runs (five earned) on seven hits in one inning (he pitched into the second but could not record an out). That’s a clear cut in my book.
My eyes had to go really far down the list before they ran into Bryce Miller, he struggled pretty ba yesterday as well:
4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 8.2% SwStr%
He’s at a 15.8% K-BB% for the season with a 3.93 SIERA. He’s been better than average this season but not much better. The 16% K-BB% and 16.5 average fantasy points are just slightly above the league average. Maybe it’s not the breakout season we were expecting.
I would be holding/buying for sure. His main problem has been the long ball. He’s given up 14 homers (1.36 HR/9) and an 11.8% Brl%. I would imagine both of those numbers regress positively moving forward.
That isn’t to say we should expect a league-average barrel and homer rate, given his high four-seam usage and lack of another fantastic pitch. The fastball is great, but one thing about four-seam fastballs is that when they’re put into play, they go for a homer at a much higher rate than other pitches.
I think he’ll continue to refine these secondary pitches and pair that with a bit of home run regression, and you could have yourself a very nice second half of the season for Miller if that happens. Buy low!
Here are the marks for Max Scherzer in his season debut:
His four-seamer velo from the last few years:
2023: 93.7mph
2022: 94.0mph
2021: 94.3mph
2020: 94.7mph
2019: 94.9mph
That is a pretty steady decline, losing about 0.3mph every year. Good for Max, making it easy on us.
The fastball has always been good with him, but if he’s known for one pitch, I would say it’s the slider. We can’t judge him on 10 sliders from yesterday, but if those marks remain strong this year, I think he’ll be able to turn in strong fantasy production even with the declining heater.
But given the uncertainty and the health issues and all of this, I would be looking to capitalize and get some kind of decent return for him right now if you can find someone willing to take a shot on the name value.
Hitter Review
Some low-owned xwOBA leaders from June.
Andy Pages .389
JJ Bleday .380
Jose Miranda .351
JP Crawford .350
Andrew McCutchen .347
Carlos Santana .347
Matt Vierling .322
Wenceel Perez .314
Eugenio Suarez .313
None of those are all that great besides Pages and Bleday.
JJ Bleday is now hitting .253/.336/.467 with an .803 OPS and 11 homers in 322 PA. That’s about a 22-homer pace over a full season. Given that he doesn’t steal bags, you don’t really love a 22-homer pace. The good news is that he’s been pretty steady in terms of giving production, and the strikeout rate improvements are for real (28% in 2022, 24% last year, and 19% this year).
Regarding his chances of being traded, I must throw my hands up. He is 26 and has a few years left of control on the contract. That makes him a pretty valuable commodity as a solid hitter who can play about league-average defense in centerfield, entering his prime with a team-friendly contract situation. But that also would make Oakland like the idea of holding on to him. I don’t think that the front office envisions competing for the next few years, but at some point, you just have to have players on the field. You can’t trade away every single player you have for prospects; you need somewhat competent guys on the field. It could go either way, but surely he will be a name you hear about in trade talk.
As for Andy Pages. We can break his season down into thirds.
First 70 PAs: .338/.357/.600, 4 HR, 21.4% K%, 0% BB%
Next 82 PAs: .143/.183/.208, 1 HR, 36.6% K%, 4.9% BB%
Last 89 PAs: .308/.393/.487, 3 HR, 22.5 K%, 10.1% BB%
It’s all really weird, but rookies are weird.
Let’s cut it out with the chopping up of the samples and just show you the full-season data:
241 PA, .259/.311/.423, .734 OPS, 27% K%, 5.4% BB%, .327 xwOBA, 12% Brl%, 73.9% Contact%, 30% GB%
His 53.2% Swing% leads the Dodgers, and therefore so does his 32.7% Chase%. During his last month of good production, he has dropped that swing rate to 47.7% and the Chase% has fallen to 26%. That doesn’t mean that it will stay this way, and he’ll be really good because of it, but it is a good sign when a conscious decision at the plate lines up with increased production. It gives you a reason to believe the recent stuff could be more legitimate.
He gets a ton of balls into the air. His exit velocity marks and bat speed are both a step better than the league average. It’s really all about the strikeout rate, then. If he can be a sub-26% K% guy moving forward, he will hit a good number of home runs and drive in a bunch of runs in that lineup. It’s hard to say, but my vote would be to add him in 12-team leagues or deeper if he’s available.
That shall wrap it up for my part of the notes today; enjoy your Monday!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jake Irvin
2. Pablo Lopez
3. Nestor Cortes
4. Sonny Gray
5. Luis Severino
6. Kyle Freeland
7. Max Scherzer
8. Paul Skenes
9. Logan Webb
10. Aaron Civale
11. Michael King
12. Tobias Myers
13. Reese Olson
14. Framber Valdez
15. Yusei Kikuchi
16. Triston McKenzie
17. Nick Lodolo
18. Max Fried
19. Hogan Harris
20. Cristopher Sanchez
21. Albert Suarez
22. Alec Marsh
23. Bryce Miller
24. Kyle Tyler
25. Javier Assad
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (vs. OAK): 48.2 Points
2. Luis Severino (vs. CHC): 35.7 Points
3. Sonny Gray (vs. SF): 33.15 Points
4. Jake Irvin (vs. COL): 29.1 Points
5. Framber Valdez (vs. BAL): 26.95 Points
6. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. ARI): 25.95 Points
7. Paul Skenes (vs. TB): 25.55 Points
8. Max Scherzer (vs. KC): 22.65 Points
9. Nestor Cortes (vs. ATL): 20.75 Points
10. Kyle Freeland (vs. WSH): 20.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jake Irvin (WSH): 22 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 19 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
3. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 18 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
4. Logan Webb (SF): 14 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
5. Luis Severino (NYM): 14 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
6. Reese Olson (DET): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
7. Paul Skenes (PIT): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
8. Michael King (SD): 11 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
9. Framber Valdez (HOU): 11 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
10. Sonny Gray (STL): 11 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Severino (NYM): 56.9 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
2. Jake Irvin (WSH): 56.1 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
3. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 54.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
4. Sonny Gray (STL): 53.8 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
5. Paul Skenes (PIT): 52.0 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
6. Chad Kuhl (CWS): 50.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
7. Michael King (SD): 50.5 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
8. Tobias Myers (MIL): 50.0 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
9. Kyle Freeland (COL): 49.3 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
10. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 49.0 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
11. Logan Webb (SF): 48.6 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
12. Max Scherzer (TEX): 47.4 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
13. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 47.3 Strike%, 44.6 Ball%
14. Framber Valdez (HOU): 47.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
15. Jared Shuster (CWS): 46.9 Strike%, 42.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer: 57 Pitches, 15 Outs, 3.8 POUT
2. Cristopher Sanchez: 80 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.81 POUT
3. Sonny Gray: 80 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.81 POUT
4. Kyle Freeland: 69 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.83 POUT
5. Aaron Civale: 61 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.07 POUT
6. Pablo Lopez: 102 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.25 POUT
7. Hogan Harris: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
8. Paul Skenes: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
9. Max Fried: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
10. Nestor Cortes: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (15 pitches) UP 3.7mph to 93.1
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 3.5mph to 87.8
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (23 pitches) UP 3.4mph to 92.4
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 83.9
Chad Kuhl's SL velo (34 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 87.8
Triston McKenzie's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 87.0
Triston McKenzie's FF velo (33 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.9
Reese Olson's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.5
Hogan Harris's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 73.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (18.0%) up 10.9 points
Albert Suarez's CU usage (21.8%) up 14.5 points
Alec Marsh's SI usage (21.8%) up 11.6 points
Chad Kuhl's FC usage (13.1%) up 10.5 points
Hogan Harris's SL usage (15.7%) up 11.7 points
Jake Irvin's CU usage (44.9%) up 12.8 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (33.3%) up 24.6 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (35.3%) up 22.6 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (18.6%) up 12.3 points
Nick Lodolo's SI usage (28.6%) up 21.6 points
Triston McKenzie's CU usage (39.2%) up 14.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Erik Miller Changeup: +19.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.5%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.6%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +15.8%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -15.7%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +14.6%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.5%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Erik Miller Slider: -14.0%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Randy Vasquez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Reynaldo Lopez Slider: -12.5%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.5%
Bryan Woo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +12.1%
George Kirby Slider: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 98 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 77 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 75 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 87 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 44.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 40.8% K%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 40.8% K%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
Hunter Brown - 74 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 40.3% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 36.7% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 34.2% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 87 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 58.1% GB%
David Peterson - 76 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Andre Pallante - 75 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Tanner Houck - 78 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Sonny Gray - 95 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 74 TBF, 53.2% GB%
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