MLB Daily Notes - June 25th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
It’s been a very frustrating morning with work and with some of the projection model stuff still causing issues. I went in to patch some things up yesterday, trying to improve the base skill projections on pitchers, and it seems that I made some mistakes. But at least they came to light this morning. I saw that we were working with an 11% K% for Gerrit Cole and a 13% for David Peterson, so I’ve fixed all of that, but there was some weird stuff in the first couple of runs of the projections. This stuff is hard to do, man.
So I’m pressed for time, and these daily notes will probably be short, but a few spots must be reviewed.
Pitcher Review
Spencer Schwellenbach was bad in the box score:
5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 0 BB
But the other stuff was really, really good:
16.3% SwStr%, 57% Strike%, 25.6% Ball%
This guy is pounding the strike zone. He has a 53.5% Zone% and a 54% Strike for the year. The league average Zone% is 50.2%; his mark is 29th-highest in the league. That 54% Strike% is the second-best in the league to Paul Skenes. That probably has to do with the sample size. I doubt he can keep it up, but man, that is a good early sign.
I love a high strike rate. His K% is currently 21.9%, and the BB% is 6.1%. That’s not a great 15.8% K-BB%, but it’s not bad either - and given the 15.3% SwStr%, you would think the K% should come up. He is one of the outliers on the SwStr% vs. K% plot.
This will be a good test of my methodology here. He is checking all the boxes I want to see, yet the results are just a 5.40 ERA so far. Maybe someday I’ll have a JA-ERA stat where I make my own ERA predictor based on the stuff I like. If that existed today, I promise Schwellenbach would be popping off there.
The problem with all of that is I’m often wrong about stuff. Many pitchers have I ranted and raved about to look like a complete assface a few weeks later. We’ll see with Schwelly. He might not even get enough Major League innings to prove me right or wrong, but I’m still prioritizing this guy as a pitcher add, and I will surely be starting him later this week.
Cole Ragans set a new season-high for any pitcher with 27 whiffs.
We expected Ragans to have a great start against the Marlins, and he did. There’s not much else to say here; Ragans is a clear-cut top-10 starter and might be a top-5.
Casey Mize got 20 whiffs but gave up nine hits and four runs, so he’s just a jagoff. I don’t know what to tell you about this guy.
I don’t have the Stuff+ numbers from yesterday, but he did pop up on that front twice in the last four starts, so maybe something is changing here; I don’t know.
It’s funny that when he has a big strikeout start, it tends not to go well anyway. He has four starts with six or more strikeouts and a 4.99 ERA in those starts. When he has pitched at least four innings with two or fewer strikeouts, he has a 2.46 ERA. If your brain is trying to figure out why that might be right now, stop your brain. There’s no explanation for this stuff other than that Casey Mize is weird and bad, and I don’t like him at all. It’s not personal, but it is a little personal.
Speaking of weirdo pitchers, James Paxton did once again.
5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 6 K, 3 BB
He now has six starts with at least three walks. In those starts, he has managed a 3.99 ERA, not bad at all. That’s because he has averaged just 4.33 hits allowed in those starts. Only once has he mixed a lot of hits with a lot of walks, and he avoided major issues in that start as well with just four runs allowed somehow (5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 K, 5 BB in a start against the Diamondbacks on April 29th). He even won that start.
He has a 74 Stuff+, a 98 Location+, a 4.3% K-BB%, and a 9.9% SwStr%. By these numbers, he looks like one of the worst pitchers in the league. And yet he has a 3.64 ERA, 1.8 runs below his SIERA of 5.43. What a lucky guy.
Again, your brain might be spinning. The Dodgers have figured something out, they’ve done it again! But no, some things aren’t figure-out-able (eat it, Grammarly), this is just ridiculous good luck and you should not be buying it.
Nine strikeouts for Justin Steele, who continues his great run.
That’s a beautiful 20.4% K-BB% in the last six starts with a 1.85 ERA, and no wins! Ha Ha Ha!
Matt Waldron struck out eight, his second-most of the year.
The knuckleball doesn’t look good at all by the numbers, with a 46% Strike% and 36% Ball%. I would tell you how that compares to other knuckleballs, but it doesn’t because there aren’t others. So, Waldron will continue to flummox me.
This is the theme of today’s daily notes, me telling you I have no idea how things that are happening are happening.
So the Bible verse of the day is Romans 1:22
Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools
I professed to be wise about Griffin Canning and became a fool. The verse from Paul isn’t about Griffin Canning, I don’t think. It’s not just about “never think you’re wise because you’re not.” It’s a very specific topic about how people in the Roman world were rejecting the obvious truth of natural law and the living God and creating for themselves their own gods that fit what they wanted God to be like. This is the same thing as a verse I came across last night:
“For the time will come when they will not tolerate sound doctrine; but wanting to have their ears tickled, they will accumulate for themselves teachers in accordance with their own desires,” 2 Timothy 4:3
There’s a pretty common idea these days that there is no absolute truth, and truth, in many ways, is just what you make yourself. “My truth” is said a lot. And when it comes to the spiritual world and the question of God - what are the chances of that being right? God has to exist; something can’t come from nothing. So God must exist and have certain characteristics that do not change no matter what you think. But it’s more comfortable to invent in your mind a god that fits what you’d like God to be. And that can seem to work for a while, but the question about who God is is not one I want to be wrong about when I die.
Griffin Canning did have a pretty nice start last night, though.
7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB, 13.4% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%
He is still at a pathetic 15.7% K% for the year, and it’s actually even worse at 15% the last month. Can’t believe how bad that guy duped me.
There is no more time for hitter reviews today; hopefully, we’ll hit some names tomorrow. I did want to clear out the reader question inbox today, though.
Reader Questions
Why isn’t Jesus Sanchez any better? He seems like he should be great for fantasy. Is it because he’s on the Marlins? - Rob
In the past, it’s been because he strikes out too much and can’t hit lefties. This year, he hasn’t struck out too much (23%), and the barrel rate has been solid at 12.8%. His xwOBA is also nice at .363. And yet he has just seven homers in 234 PAs. His xSLG is .512, well above his actual of .379. So there’s bad luck there, but one component here that the expected stats don’t capture fully is the spray chart. He has hit a ton of fly balls to center field and the opposite way, and hard-hit fly balls don’t work nearly as well over there.
His Pull% was 42% in 2022, 33% last year, and just 27% this year. It’s possible he has stopped trying to pull the ball as much in order to strike out less. That’s the main reason for the high barrel rate and low home run production.
With the lack of steals and lack of playing time/production against lefties, I don’t view Sanchez as someone you want in a standard league. But he should improve a lot from the current slugging percentage, so he’s useful in deep leagues - especially ones where you can just start him against right-handed pitching.
Braxton Garrett, Civale or Jonathan Cannon? (Pick 2)
Brandon Lowe, Joey Ortiz, or Nick Gonzales (Pick 2) - Zach
Garrett, Civale, Lowe, Ortiz.
Can you review your process on selecting pitchers to be in your dfs player pool? Other than K upside what else should i be looking for when it comes to including guys in my final pool of players. - Mario
This presents me a chance to plug my DFS strategy guide, which I wrote in the pre-season. The answer is in there. I’ve been relying on my projections almost entirely for this season. A good projection model factors in everything you would want to factor in, so that’s the best way to pick pitchers. If you don’t have access to projections, though, I would say just go after the strikeout pitchers on DraftKings - the scoring system is massively biased toward strikeouts.
Gavin Williams - Ruben
We saw multiple injuries for Williams in the pre-season and early season, but he’s made five rehab outings since May 30th, so he’s been consistently on the mound. His most recent outing was five innings, so he’s close to stretched out. My guess is one more rehab outing and then he comes back. He has a 30.5 K% and 8.5% BB% in that rehab, so that’s good to see. I really loved this guy for 2024 before the injuries. You can read my pre-season review of him here.
Is there anything in Keibert Ruiz profile that looks promising? 15 team, 2 catcher league so there is not a lot out there to replace him. - David M
Brutal season for Ruiz this year with a .544 OPS and just four homers on a pathetic 2.3% Brl%. I remember him barreling the ball a bunch for a while last season. Looking at the final line from 2023:
561 PA, .260/.307/.409, .716 OPS, 18 HR, 5.8% Brl%, 10.3% K%
The strikeout rate is still strong at 12.9% this year, but the power is poof - gone. A 26% hard-hit rate and .289 xwOBA. This is where it would be nice to have the bat speed data from last year because then we could see if he’s swinging the bat softer this year. I would have to imagine he is given the low hard-hit and barrel rates.
Your question mentioned a 15-team, two-catcher league. If my math is right, 15 times 2 is 30, which is equal to the number of Major League baseball teams. Absolutely, Ruiz should be rostered in that kind of league.
Playing time is king at catcher in that kind of league, and Ruiz is 18th in the league in PAs for catchers. There’s no way there are 30 better catchers than him. I think he’ll be better moving forward with the batting average and slugging, given the .259 xBA and .358 xSLG are both much better than the actual numbers.
There you have it!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans
2. James Paxton
3. Garrett Crochet
4. Spencer Schwellenbach
5. Casey Mize
6. Justin Steele
7. Bryan Woo
8. Tanner Bibee
9. Aaron Nola
10. Matt Waldron
11. Griffin Canning
12. Freddy Peralta
13. Taj Bradley
14. Carson Spiers
15. Bailey Falter
16. Chris Bassitt
17. Cade Povich
18. Tanner Houck
19. Roddery Munoz
20. Michael Lorenzen
21. Lance Lynn
22. Luis Medina
23. Patrick Corbin
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (vs. MIA): 33.3 Points
2. Spencer Howard (vs. CHC): 27.51 Points
3. Justin Steele (vs. SF): 26.29 Points
4. Aaron Nola (vs. DET): 26.15 Points
5. Tanner Bibee (vs. BAL): 25.9 Points
6. Lance Lynn (vs. ATL): 24.61 Points
7. Griffin Canning (vs. OAK): 24.15 Points
8. Taj Bradley (vs. SEA): 22.39 Points
9. Garrett Crochet (vs. LAD): 21.76 Points
10. Tanner Houck (vs. TOR): 21.41 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (KC): 27 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
2. Casey Mize (DET): 20 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. James Paxton (LAD): 18 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Spencer Howard (SF): 17 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
5. Matt Waldron (SD): 16 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
6. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Justin Steele (CHC): 16 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
8. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 15 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
9. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Justin Steele (CHC): 58.5 Strike%, 23.6 Ball%
2. Spencer Howard (SF): 57.1 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
3. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 57.0 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%
4. Bryan Woo (SEA): 56.7 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
5. Bailey Falter (PIT): 53.2 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
6. Cole Ragans (KC): 52.8 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
7. Casey Mize (DET): 52.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 51.1 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
9. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 50.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
10. Matt Waldron (SD): 50.5 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
11. Griffin Canning (LAA): 50.5 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
12. Tanner Houck (BOS): 50.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
13. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 50.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
14. Taj Bradley (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
15. James Paxton (LAD): 49.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
2. Lance Lynn: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
3. Patrick Corbin: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
4. Aaron Brooks: 65 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.64 POUT
5. Justin Steele: 106 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.82 POUT
6. Griffin Canning: 97 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.85 POUT
7. Chris Bassitt: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
8. Tanner Houck: 101 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.05 POUT
9. Carson Spiers: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
10. Roddery Munoz: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tanner Bibee's CU velo (27 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 82.7
Taj Bradley's FC velo (13 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 91.6
Tanner Houck's FS velo (26 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 90.2
Aaron Brooks's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.9
Bryan Woo's FF velo (35 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 96.7
Aaron Brooks's FF velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.7
Bryan Woo's SI velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 96.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cade Povich's ST usage (25.3%) up 12.6 points
Cole Ragans's SL usage (23.1%) up 12.4 points
Griffin Canning's CH usage (39.2%) up 15.5 points
James Paxton's CU usage (37.4%) up 11.5 points
Jonathan Hernandez's SI usage (59.3%) up 15.5 points
Lance Lynn's FF usage (62.5%) up 16.6 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (35.2%) up 25.4 points
Tanner Bibee's CU usage (28.1%) up 18.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.6%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +15.8%
Walker Buehler 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +14.6%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.5%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Randy Vasquez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Reynaldo Lopez Slider: -12.5%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -12.3%
Walker Buehler Cutter: +12.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.1%
George Kirby Slider: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 98 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 77 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 92 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 77 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 40.8% K%
Tanner Bibee - 92 TBF, 40.2% K%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 38.1% K%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 31.3% K%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 30.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 36.7% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 87 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 98 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Andre Pallante - 75 TBF, 56.9% GB%
David Peterson - 76 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Sonny Gray - 95 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 74 TBF, 53.2% GB%
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