MLB Daily Notes - June 26th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Another day of busyness at work, so I need to be brief again. I will take a couple of the questions in the requests sheet first.
Do you buy Jordan Walker for the rest of the season? Is the fly ball rate fixed? - Chris
These are a few days old now, so I apologize that I’m getting to them late. Walker is now slashing .333/.413/.561 since his return from the minors. He has a 9.8% Brl% with a 20% K%, so that’s certainly very good stuff. His xwOBA is up there at .380 though so he gets the nod there as well.
The fly ball rate is not fixed, though, to answer that question. He still has a 58% GB% since returning, and the launch angle has stayed low.
That hasn’t kept him away from good fantasy production, as you can see with the .972 OPS, but it has kept the barrel rate away from double-digits. The GB% will probably trickle down a bit, and that will be pretty great. Even with all of this, he has a great 18.8 PA/HR since the return, so he’s overcoming it fine. He looks pretty darn good even though Elly has taken all of his hype away.
1. Yainer Diaz 2. Too early to buy into Michael Harris improvments versus lefties? -Eli
I like Yainer and his 14% Brl% with the 18% K%. That’s pretty impressive stuff, however, in shallow leagues I don’t think we can really roster him because he’s sitting so much. The good news is that he has a dozen starts at DH and he plays some 1B as well, but until he’s starting 5 times a week he’s hard to go for in 10 or 12 teamers where one catcher is started. Anything deeper than that though I would get him in there, he really does seem like a good big league hitter.
As for Michael Harris, it’s hard to judge his performance against lefties given he’s seen just 57 PAs there this year. The good news is a 17% K% and a 75% Contact%, so that’s very good to see - but it’s way too early to really know. What I do know is that you should just start Harris every week because he’s very good and the upside is crazy.
Seiya Suzuki - anonymous
Yeah this is a weird one. Suzuki is now down to a .740 OPS, which is pretty bad. The SLG is down to .403 and he has just 6 homers (43 PA/HR). The plus side is that he hits the ball hard often (50% hard-hit rate), has a fine barrel rate (9%), and does not strike out much (24%). The .325 xwOBA is fine but not great.
I guess the best thing to do right now for Suzuki is just look at the career sample instead of trying to nitpick with smaller samples.
.260/.334/.422, 10.3% Brl%, 24.7% K%, 9.6% BB%, 78% Contact%, 42% GB%
So that’s pretty much a middling player. The fact that he hits #3 or #4 in the lineup and steals some bags helps, but it doesn’t look like he’s anything near an OF1 for fantasy, but there’s still plenty of time for things to change.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (vs. MIN): 34.75 Points
2. Reid Detmers (vs. CWS): 31.35 Points
3. Dylan Cease (vs. LAA): 28.5 Points
4. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. WSH): 24.95 Points
5. Colin Rea (vs. NYM): 19.84 Points
6. Justin Verlander (vs. MIL): 17.05 Points
7. Sonny Gray (vs. ATL): 14.21 Points
8. Mason Englert (vs. TEX): 13.44 Points
9. Tyler Alexander - 641302 (vs. TEX): 12.95 Points
10. Fernando Cruz (vs. BAL): 9.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 26 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 17 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Dylan Cease (CWS): 17 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. Reid Detmers (LAA): 17 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
5. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
6. Sonny Gray (MIN): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
7. Cory Abbott (WSH): 11 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
8. Trevor Williams (WSH): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
9. Justin Verlander (NYM): 7 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
10. Colin Rea (MIL): 7 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Reid Detmers (LAA): 57.1 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 51.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
3. Luis Castillo (SEA): 50.5 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
4. Dylan Cease (CWS): 49.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
5. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 49.3 Strike%, 41.8 Ball%
6. Trevor Williams (WSH): 47.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
7. Cory Abbott (WSH): 46.8 Strike%, 42.9 Ball%
8. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 46.5 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
9. Colin Rea (MIL): 45.3 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
10. Sonny Gray (MIN): 45.1 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
11. Justin Verlander (NYM): 44.0 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%
12. Jake Wong (CIN): 35.1 Strike%, 43.9 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Williamson's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 89.8
Andrew Heaney's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.5
Dylan Cease's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.5
Reid Detmers's SL velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 87.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andrew Heaney's FF usage (70.3%) up 12.0 points
Cory Abbott's CU usage (51.9%) up 12.6 points
Sonny Gray's ST usage (27.5%) up 12.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +27.7%
Shintaro Fujinami Split-Finger: -27.4%
Shintaro Fujinami 4-Seam Fastball: +26.9%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -22.5%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +19.3%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.3%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Bryce Miller Slider: +16.8%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +16.6%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +16.5%
Austin Gomber Slider: +15.9%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +15.6%
Cole Irvin Sinker: +15.6%
Jhony Brito Sinker: +15.2%
Shintaro Fujinami Sweeper: +14.9%
Bobby Miller Sinker: +14.8%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +14.6%
Merrill Kelly 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
JP Sears Sweeper: -13.4%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: -12.9%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: -12.5%
Jesus Luzardo Changeup: +12.4%
Trevor Williams Slider: +12.4%
Taijuan Walker 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
Daniel Lynch Slider: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 40.8% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 80 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 97 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 86 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 79 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 95 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 89 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Eury Perez - 86 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 51.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 86 TBF, 36.0% K%
Reid Detmers - 96 TBF, 35.4% K%
Eury Perez - 86 TBF, 34.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Lance Lynn - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Pablo Lopez - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
Lucas Giolito - 97 TBF, 30.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 47.1% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 86 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 97 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 96 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
JP Sears - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
James Paxton - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 111 TBF, 65.9% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 83 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 99 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 81 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 89 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Bryce Elder - 95 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 100 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 97 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 77 TBF, 27.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 51.5 K%, 4.4 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 66 TBF, 45.5 K%, 3.0 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Griffin Canning - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
James Paxton - 90 TBF, 30.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 89 TBF, 28.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 56.7% GB%
Jon Gray - 65 TBF, 27.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 102 TBF, 32.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 87 TBF, 28.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Zach Eflin - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Dean Kremer - +3.9% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
George Kirby - +3.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.8% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Garrett Whitlock - +5.6% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Zac Gallen - +4.6% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Tommy Henry - +2.8% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Lucas Giolito - +2.0% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
James Kaprielian - +6.4% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Blake Snell - +10.7% CSW%, -6.8 BB%
Griffin Canning - +2.3% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.3% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Cole Irvin - +5.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jakob Junis - +5.3% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
None
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 113.0mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.8mph - field_out
Cedric Mullins II (BAL) - 110.5mph - single
Austin Riley (ATL) - 110.4mph - single
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 110.1mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 108.8mph - field_out
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) - 108.6mph - double
Joey Wiemer (MIL) - 108.4mph - home_run
Dominic Smith (WSH) - 108.4mph - nan
Jonah Heim (TEX) - 108.3mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 0.177 wOBA, 0.265 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 60 PA, 0.218 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Shea Langeliers - 61 PA, 0.22 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Dominic Smith - 69 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Jake Bauers - 59 PA, 0.289 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Adam Frazier - 58 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 69 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Pavin Smith - 64 PA, 0.274 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Alex Kirilloff - 65 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Connor Joe - 60 PA, 0.251 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Bottom 10
Austin Hays - 75 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Lane Thomas - 80 PA, 0.472 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.122 Diff
Corbin Carroll - 84 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Michael Harris II - 76 PA, 0.476 wOBA, 0.357 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 80 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 0.487 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Jordan Walker - 59 PA, 0.483 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 68 PA, 0.428 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 71 PA, 0.366 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Bryson Stott - 64 PA, 0.382 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 88 PA, 56 BIP, 16 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Joey Wiemer - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Ryan O'Hearn - 54 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Drew Waters - 55 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Luis Robert - 79 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Mickey Moniak - 51 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Corey Seager - 87 PA, 62 BIP, 13 Brls, 21.0 Brl%
Mike Ford - 47 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 55 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Will Benson - 48 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 88 PA, 0.555 xwOBA
David Peralta - 49 PA, 0.474 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 87 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 78 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 92 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 73 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Ryan O'Hearn - 54 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 85 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 76 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Travis d'Arnaud - 53 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 75 PA, 131 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Kevin Newman - 51 PA, 83 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 66 PA, 103 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 48 PA, 86 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Tucupita Marcano - 51 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 76 PA, 142 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 74 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 62 PA, 107 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Wander Franco - 72 PA, 131 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Luis Garcia - 77 PA, 146 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Maikel Garcia - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
TJ Friedl - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Andrew Velazquez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jarren Duran - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Tommy Edman - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ozzie Albies - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Andrew McCutchen - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Trea Turner - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Steven Kwan - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Trent Grisham - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Nick Madrigal - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Christian Walker - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 17 Attempts (13 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 16 Attempts (12 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Christian Yelich - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Wander Franco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jarren Duran - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 8 Attempts (4 steals)
Josh Lowe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Trea Turner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
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