MLB Daily Notes - June 26th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
We are missing the Phillies vs. Tigers game in the API this morning, so the main MLB dashboard won’t show those numbers, and they are not included in any of the reports below. I think that’s one that will get fixed soon because I do see the numbers on the game feed, but last year, we had this same situation in Detroit, where the Statcast data just never showed up. It was a Griffin Canning start, so I remember it well.
I will keep checking and reload everything once/if it shows up.
Pitcher Review
Hunter Brown, man, what a stud.
The schedule has been an absolute dream, but he has taken full advantage. You don’t see runs of excellence like this very often, even from the league’s best. So I’m pretty confident he’ll pitch well even in tougher spots the rest of the year. Over these last seven starts, he has a 1.47 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP on a 29.1% K% and 6.7% BB%.
Here is the pitch mix data from this run of seven starts:
The numbers aren’t phenomenal. A 14.2% SwStr% is quite good, but the Strike% and Ball% are right around the league average. He has kept the ball on the ground (52% GB%) and in the park (four homers), and overall the .237 xwOBA is great.
This does suggest some good luck, but it’s hard to keep an xwOBA against that low for long. I would say he’s a sell-high, but given how bad his first month was, I doubt you’ll be able to pull that off.
Hunter Greene was puking all over the place and got shelled for seven hits and six earned runs in four innings. Easy enough to give him a pass since his body clearly wasn’t right, but who knows. He gave up just one homer, and the rest was just the Pirates stringing hits together. Greene gave up a .462 BABIP in this start. Nothing changes with him; you still start him every day and maybe hope that they scratch him next time he wants to go out there after eating something funky.
Bobby Miller was bad:
2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 K, 3 BB
He was pulled after just 60 pitches. He threw 38 in the first and 22 in the second, and 45% of them went for balls. In the 139 pitches he’s thrown since returning, the Ball% is 41.7%, and the Strike% is 38.1%; it's just a really bad start for him.
Much of the same for Gerrit Cole, who gave up six runs on seven hits in four innings with zero strikeouts and four walks. That was a 37.5% Strike% and 38.9% Ball%. The velocity started high, but he lost it halfway through:
He has an 8.2% SwStr%, 43.3% Strike%, and 36.6% Ball% in his 134 pitches this year. I don’t think it would be nuts to bench Cole and/or Miller until you see some better stuff, but if it were me, I would trust Cole next time around and chalk this up to him getting back in the swing of things. I don’t feel quite as confident with Miller since he’s not the proven asset that Cole has.
Expectations for pitchers in their first few starts after an injury should always be tempered; that’s the lesson here.
There has been a little bit of a downswing for MacKenzie Gore the last two starts. He put up just a 10.6% SwStr% and 41.5% Strike% yesterday, giving up five hits and five earned runs with just one strikeout and three walks.
He has a 6.15 ERA and a 12.8% K-BB% in June. The good news is he had a 15.5% SwStr% and 35% Ball% at that time, so those numbers are good. The BABIP hasn’t been friendly this month at .383, but his command has dropped off a bit from the beginning of the year. I would still be starting Gore moving forward, but it’s been a rough month, and I don’t think he’s an auto-start in shallow leagues at this point.
Kevin Gausman had another mediocre start, giving up three runs on five hits in six innings against the Red Sox. It was a quality start, but a 10.4% SwStr% and 45.8% Strike% brought his season totals in those categories to 12.3% and 48.2%. Those marks are a big drop-off from last year’s 14.3% and 50.8%.
But you still have to start him. You aren’t going to get a great return for him in a trade, and he could really improve as the year goes on and he makes adjustments.
Who is Randy Rodriguez? He is the #1 pitcher from yesterday by the algorithm, although he barely qualified for that with just 53 pitches. He has been in a long relief role for the Giants this year and has done this:
30 IP, 13.8% SwStr%, 49.7% Strike%, 34.4% Ball%, 27.7% K%, 8.5% BB%
Given that it was an opener-type start, we can move right past him. If he remains in the rotation, our expectation should be diminished performance given the shift to longer outings. But he seized the opportunity—you have to give him that!
Hitter Review
Jonathan India was the leader of the day, scoring 32 fantasy points. He did that with two hits, two walks, two steals, and three runs scored. His season line:
.264/.374/.382, 5 HR, 8 SB, 20.4% K%, 13.3% BB%, 9.8% SB Att%
Nothing great there, but he does have a .361/.448/.542 slash line in June with two homers and three steals. Given that he’s a lead-off man with a great OBP in Cincinnati, he’s pretty close to a must-own in an OBP league.
He has just a 5.8% Brl% and a 45% GB%, so I don’t think you’ll get many homers even in the smaller ballpark, but it won’t be zero, and you’ll get runs and steals along the way. The walks will continue to come because he just does not swing the bat (36.4%). That is the second-lowest swing rate in the league (for hitters with at least 150 PAs).
Lowest Swing Rates, 2024
Nootbaar 36.2%
India 36.4%
Wade Jr. 36.5%
Kim 36.9%
Soto 37.1%
Betts 37.2%
Julien 37.3%
Biggio 37.6%
Carter 38.3%
Garver 38.3%
Aaron Judge had another three-barrel game. That turned into just one homer, but it was a grand slam. He extended his barrel lead to 12 above Ohtani, and he has 20 more barrels than every hitter except Ohtani, Soto, Ozuna, and Witt Jr.
2024 Barrels Leaders
Judge 58
Ohtani 46
Soto 43
Ozuna 39
Witt Jr. 39
Hernandez 35
C Walker 34
Ward 34
LIndor 34
Geuerrero Jr. 33
Stanton 33
Tatis Jr. 33
How about a little Mickey Moniak update? He scored 24 fantasy points with four RBI and a homer yesterday.
196 PA, .191/.345/.311, .556 OPS, 4 HR, 7.6% Brl%, 26.5% K%, 6.6% BB%, 72.4% Contact%
He is known (by me, at least) for swinging the bat an absolute ton. He’s at a 55.8% Swing%. There are about 20 hitters higher than that, but it’s super high. You can get by with a high swing rate, but Moniak doesn’t seem to have much control of the bat as far as putting the bat where the ball is goes. His zone contact rate is just 78.8%. The league average is around 84%, and the worst numbers in the league are in the low seventies. So he’s bad in that regard. His strikeout rate has improved this year, but he’s lost some of that wild power he showed last year.
I don’t know why I’ve written this many words about Mickey Moniak, but he’s an interesting hitter.
Jurickson Profar scored another 24 fantasy points with a homer, two runs, and four RBI. He has an .894 OPS on the year with 11 homers and four steals. The 14.8% K% is the lowest he’s posted since 2019, and he’s setting new career highs (by far) in xBA, wOBA, and xwOBA.
If you didn’t hear, MLB personally invited me via mass public e-mail to be one of the voters for this year’s All-Star Game. They have recognized my influence on the game and its fans, so I was honored to send in my ballot. I left Profar off the ballot, and it angered many San Diegans. But I say to you San Diegans, you can cram it. Who cares about Jurickson Profar? He’s boring. He was one of the most-hyped prospects in history back in 2012; do you remember that?
I used the old Google trick of adding in a before date and found this article, among other things.
It’s a good thing to know how to google stuff from a certain date range. That, along with the Wayback Machine, are things you’ve gotta know for internet sleuthing.
So anyways, Profar won’t be an All-Star starter because of me, and that’s his own fault - he should have had a better career, you know? It shouldn’t have taken him 11 years to be better than Manny Machado.
Someone asked me about Spencer Horwitz. The daily projection model has been liking him as a DFS play since he’s been leading off quite a bit, so let’s take a look into him.
58 PA, .348/.483, .522, 1.004 OPS, 2 HR, 12.5% Brl%, 10.3% K%, 17.2% BB%, 86% Contact%, .440 xwOBA, .368 BABIP, 38% GB%
That is quite a start. This is a 26-year-old who has spent a ton of time in the minors recently. Since 2021, he has 1,452 PAs in the minor leagues with a .302/.414/.469 slash line on a 16.2% K% and 15.2% BB%.
The high walk rate and low strikeout rate are enticing. It’s a small sample, but the high contact rate does tell us that he will likely be a low strikeout-rate hitter. The swing rate is low (42.8%), but not overly so. His chase rate is right in line with the swing rate at 23%, which is a good step better than the league average but nothing outrageous.
This is an example of a time when bat speed is useful. We have only seen him swing the bat 101 times, so it’s hard to use exit velocity stuff yet. The league average bat speed on competitive swings is something like 71.2mph (this can move around depending on how you define “competitive swings”). Horwitz has posted a mark of 68.5 on his 92 competitive swings. That’s low. He’s in the bottom 25% in terms of bat speed. He is most comparable to Jacob Young, Jake McCarthy, Brayan Rocchio, and Robbie Grossman. So we don’t have a home run hitter here, in all likelihood.
As far as launch angle stuff goes, he’s been a fly ball hitter thus far:
GB%: 38% (league average = 43%)
LD%: 23% (league average = 24%)
FB%: 33% (league average = 26%)
Pull%: 35% (league average = 39%)
For a hitter with a slower bat, you don’t want to see too many fly balls. Weakly hit fly balls will be caught at a very high rate. That’s not a great sign for his batting average.
So we have a guy who will get on base at a good clip and probably still manage a decent batting average, given the lower K%, but he won’t provide much power. Then we check on the steals, and his career 6.2% attempt rate (all levels) shows us a guy who probably won’t do much of that either.
It seems that Horwitz is also a good fantasy option for deeper OBP leagues.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Randy Rodriguez
2. Hunter Brown
3. Zack Littell
4. Seth Lugo
5. Kyle Hendricks
6. Mitch Spence
7. Yonny Chirinos
8. Hunter Greene
9. Logan Allen
10. David Peterson
11. Chris Flexen
12. MacKenzie Gore
13. Joe Ryan
14. Kevin Gausman
15. Brandon Pfaadt
16. Mitch Keller
17. Luis Castillo
18. Tyler Anderson
19. Bobby Miller
20. Andrew Heaney
21. Austin Gomber
22. Brayan Bello
23. Adam Mazur
24. Gerrit Cole
25. Cole Irvin
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (vs. PHI): 31.35 Points
2. Hunter Brown (vs. COL): 28.5 Points
3. Seth Lugo (vs. MIA): 27.1 Points
4. Bryse Wilson (vs. TEX): 23.7 Points
5. Josh Winckowski (vs. TOR): 21.3 Points
6. David Peterson (vs. NYY): 18.94 Points
7. Kevin Gausman (vs. BOS): 17.9 Points
8. Mitch Keller (vs. CIN): 17.36 Points
9. Zack Littell (vs. SEA): 16.25 Points
10. Kyle Hendricks (vs. SF): 16.15 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Brown (HOU): 20 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Zack Littell (TB): 14 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
3. Seth Lugo (KC): 13 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. David Peterson (NYM): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Hunter Greene (CIN): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 12 Whiffs (109 Pitches)
7. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 11 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Mitch Spence (OAK): 11 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
9. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 11 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
10. Randy Rodriguez (SF): 10 Whiffs (53 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Randy Rodriguez (SF): 56.6 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
2. David Peterson (NYM): 52.4 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
3. Yonny Chirinos (MIA): 51.3 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
4. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 51.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
5. Zack Littell (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
6. Hunter Greene (CIN): 49.5 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
7. Seth Lugo (KC): 49.4 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
8. Mitch Keller (PIT): 49.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
9. Logan Allen (CLE): 48.3 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
10. Hunter Brown (HOU): 47.9 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
11. Luis Castillo (SEA): 47.6 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
12. Josh Winckowski (BOS): 47.3 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
13. Mitch Spence (OAK): 46.2 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
14. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 45.8 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
15. Joe Ryan (MIN): 45.3 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryse Wilson: 74 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.11 POUT
2. Brandon Pfaadt: 80 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.21 POUT
3. Adam Mazur: 55 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.23 POUT
4. Joe Ryan: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
5. Zack Littell: 72 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.8 POUT
6. Seth Lugo: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Kyle Hendricks: 100 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Mitch Spence: 80 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.0 POUT
9. Josh Winckowski: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
10. Hunter Brown: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's FS velo (18 pitches) UP 3.8mph to 89.3
Austin Gomber's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 86.5
Mitch Keller's FC velo (14 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 91.9
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 91.5
Seth Lugo's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 87.8
Joe Ryan's FF velo (44 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.5
Cole Irvin's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.4
Brayan Bello's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.1
Bobby Miller's SI velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 97.2
Josh Winckowski's SI velo (39 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.4
Bobby Miller's FF velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 97.1
Zack Littell's FF velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.6
Josh Winckowski's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.4
Zack Littell's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 85.4
Yonny Chirinos's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 85.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andrew Heaney's SL usage (46.7%) up 20.6 points
Bobby Miller's SI usage (31.7%) up 12.8 points
Brandon Pfaadt's SI usage (28.8%) up 13.7 points
Gerrit Cole's FC usage (30.6%) up 23.1 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (18.1%) up 13.9 points
Hunter Brown's FC usage (16.0%) up 10.1 points
Hunter Brown's CH usage (14.9%) up 14.4 points
Hunter Greene's FS usage (15.1%) up 11.2 points
Kyle Hendricks's CU usage (26.0%) up 20.1 points
Mitch Keller's CU usage (22.1%) up 13.4 points
Randy Rodriguez's SL usage (56.6%) up 16.9 points
Tyler Anderson's CH usage (48.6%) up 11.9 points
Yonny Chirinos's FF usage (14.1%) up 11.0 points
Zack Littell's FS usage (31.9%) up 11.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.6%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +16.0%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +14.6%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.5%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +13.4%
Randy Vasquez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Hunter Brown Split-Finger: -12.6%
Reynaldo Lopez Slider: -12.5%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -12.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.1%
George Kirby Slider: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 98 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 77 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 76 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 92 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 77 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 105 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
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