MLB Daily Notes - June 28th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
My debate bullet points
I cannot believe they couldn’t get Biden in better shape than that
It makes me think it was on purpose, and they just ran him out there to give them a clear reason to ditch him (the Democratic National Convention hasn’t even happened yet; I think this was the first debate ever to happen before a convention)
What was said should matter, but it doesn’t. Campaigns are snapshots and sound bites.
The Democrat nominee should matter, but it doesn’t. Joe Biden isn’t running the Biden administration; that’s been clear the whole time: we are ruled by agencies and unelected bureaucrats.
The golf thing was amazing.
Trump’s biggest enemy is his mouth; I think the mute button helped him a lot. He did what he needed to do (again, the substance of what he said does not matter to the vast majority of voters).
Whoever people are talking about more the day after a debate lost it, and that’s clearly Biden this time.
And now I will go dark on politics for a while. I have achieved restraint over the years and think I know the right tune to play with this stuff. It’s also helped me greatly that my faith in God and God’s sovereignty has grown greatly over the last year, and now I don’t worry about what might happen.
“For this reason I say to you, do not be worried about your life, as to what you will eat or what you will drink; nor for your body, as to what you will put on. Is life not more than food, and the body more than clothing? Look at the birds of the sky, that they do not sow, nor reap, nor gather crops into barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not much more important than they?” - Matthew 6
Pitcher Review
Corbin Burnes continued his great season with another WEIRD start.
7 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 0 BB, 19 whiffs, 21.6% SwStr%
Remember that we did that little math a few weeks ago about the whiff-to-strikeout ratio? For the year, it’s about 2.1 whiffs per strikeout. Burnes is at 2.26 with his 224 whiffs and 99 strikeouts. Yesterday, his ratio was 3.8. That was the 12th-highest of the season.
Burnes has gotten it done mostly by avoiding loud contact.
xwOBA Allowed on Contact, 2024
Severino .322
Abbott .324
Greene .327
Gil .329
Wheeler .330
Burnes .331
R Suarez .331
Fried .336
Cortes .338
Stone .340
This was actually one of his worst efforts in the xwOBA department:
But overall, he’s been great, and it’s hard to deny that it’s not about luck. It will be quite interesting to see what kind of contract he lands this off-season.
Hitters facing Burnes this year:
.222/.263/.341, .604 OPS, 11 HR, 6.3% Brl%, 21.5 K%, 5.4% BB%, 73% Cont%, .279 xwOBA, 50% GB%
You can get these numbers easily on the main dashboard by punching in a pitcher on the “Hitters” tab, like so:
Two of our three big prop bets hit last night. We had Sale under 1.5 walks, and he did this:
7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB, 14.3% SwStr%, 56.2% Strike%
We had Flaherty over 6.5 strikeouts, and he did this:
5.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, 15.3% SwStr%, 50% Strike%
And then we had Rodon under 5.5 strikeouts, which looked like a lock after he gave up eight runs in the first two innings, but he stayed out there for five innings and did this:
5 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 15.9% SwStr%, 49.5% Strike%
Pretty good numbers for Rodon there after you get past the hits and earned runs allowed!
The most interesting man of the day was this Davis Daniel fella.
8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 8 K, 0 BB, 13.1% SwStr%, 55.6% Strike%, 26.3% Ball%
He pitches for the Angels (and faced the Tigers last night) if you didn’t know that. I wish I had played DFS last night because the model liked him quite a bit!
This was his season debut, so we should give him a good look. In AAA:
14 GS, 76 IP, 5.33 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 24.3% K%, 7.4% BB%, 0.59 HR/9
Remember that this is the Pacific Coast League, where the league ERA is 5.43.
Given that weirdness, it’s more useful to examine the advanced data we have on him from AAA.
Well, that doesn’t help. There is a 10.3% SwStr%, 47.5% Strike%, and a 43% GB%. That's pretty bad stuff. The 60% fastball usage in AAA came down to 47.5% last night. It’s a slow fastball, under 92 miles per hour on average. It worked last night (64% Strike%), though. The secondaries weren’t great in AAA either, but the changeup was strong last night (64% Strike% on his 25 changeups).
I think I’ve seen enough; we don’t pick up Daniel even after this masterful beginning.
I picked up Jordan Montgomery because somebody gave up on him in my home league, but I did one of those sweet ass rage drops yesterday because he was terrible. The guy just looks awful across the board, so I’m leaving him alone for now.
The debut of David Festa!
5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 7.7% SwStr%, 42.3% Strike%, 32.1% Ball%
He did not throw many balls, which is good, but he didn’t earn strikes and got only six whiffs on 78 pitches. Bad debut. If you picked him up, and he is scheduled for another start next week, I’d ride that out. It’s silly to pick up a rookie pitcher and bail on him quickly.
Shota Imanaga put up a quality start, a good bounce back from the 10-earned disaster, but under the hood it wasn’t very good.
6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 8.6% SwStr%, 49.5% Strike%, 29% Ball%
I looked a bit into his declining skills in this piece yesterday, and this start didn’t make me feel any better about him.
Andrew Abbott walked six, throwing more balls than strikes.
Hitter Review
George Springer went for 39 fantasy points yesterday with two dingers, two runs, and six RBI.
It has been an awful season for Springer:
.205/.289/.328, 8 HR, 6.9% Brl%, 17.4% K%, 10.5% BB%, .322 xwOBA
In June:
.198/.250/.370, 4 HR, 9.8% Brl%, 22.7% K%, 6.8% BB%, .332 xwOBA
The power production has come up a bit this month, but that is only because he hit two homers last night (take off yesterday, and we see a 6.9% Brl% and .301 xwOBA in June).
I don’t see much reason to play Springer in normal leagues right now.
Speaking of veteran hitters with a lot of good times in their past, Byron Buxton also had a big day yesterday with a homer, three runs, three RBI, and 30 fantasy points. His season now:
225 PA, .261/.311/.449, .760 OPS, 7 HR, 9.6% Brl%, 28% K%, 4% BB%, .318 xwOBA
In June:
83 PA, .289/.337/.526, .864 OPS, 4 HR, 13.8% Brl%, 23% K%, 3.6% BB%, .408 xwOBA
He’s looking better!
Heston Kjerstad hit a dinger. He was recalled on June 24th and has started three out of four games since then. His stats on the year:
We can’t judge his Major League performance in just the 29 PAs. I think he would be getting everyday reps in the Majors on any other team. It’s quite possible that he will play every day or most days against righties since he has started all three games (and hit 5th, 7th, and 5th) in the three games against a right-handed pitcher since this latest recall.
In a deeper league where you can change your lineup every day, I would be interested in adding Kjerstad.
More quick notes:
Noelvi Marte scored three times in his season debut with a stolen base.
Jake Burger homered. His OPS is now at .602 with a 10.7% Brl% and a 25% K%. Disappointing season, not a must-own player, but I think there should be better days ahead (14.3% Brl% in June).
Ian Happ homered again. Over his last 119 PAs, he has a great .907 OPS with eight homers, a 26% K%, and a 16.9% Brl%. Very underrated.
Heliot Ramos has finally had a rough patch. In the last 10 days, he has just a .135/.220/.243 line with a. 463 OPS, one homer, and a 24.4% K%.
Elly De La Cruz shows up on the hot hitter tracker. He’s chasing less and making more contact of late. Over his last 100 PAs, he is hitting .310/.388/.609 with a .997 OPS, a 23.2% K%, and a homer every 19.6 plate appearances. And also six steals, of course.
Jonathan India makes it a trifecta in these bullet points for the Reds. This month, he has a 1.015 OPS with a 22% K%, two homers, and three steals. The Reds had a .743 OPS in June, which is the 11th-best in the Majors.
I think we can call it there. I will talk to you all in the slate preview this afternoon.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes
2. Davis Daniel
3. Jose Berrios
4. Chris Sale
5. Zack Wheeler
6. Carlos Rodon
7. Jack Flaherty
8. Shota Imanaga
9. Jordan Hicks
10. Miles Mikolas
11. Michael Wacha
12. Ben Lively
13. Jordan Montgomery
14. David Festa
15. Andrew Abbott
16. Trevor Rogers
17. Jon Gray
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Davis Daniel (vs. DET): 35.6 Points
2. Chris Sale (vs. CWS): 32.75 Points
3. Jose Berrios (vs. NYY): 28.75 Points
4. Corbin Burnes (vs. TEX): 22.35 Points
5. Michael Wacha (vs. CLE): 16.59 Points
6. Zack Wheeler (vs. MIA): 15.61 Points
7. Ben Lively (vs. KC): 15.3 Points
8. Sam Long (vs. CLE): 15.16 Points
9. Jordan Hicks (vs. CHC): 15.05 Points
10. Jared Shuster (vs. ATL): 13.55 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 19 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
2. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 18 Whiffs (115 Pitches)
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 17 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
4. Jack Flaherty (DET): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
5. Chris Sale (ATL): 15 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
6. Davis Daniel (LAA): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Jordan Hicks (SF): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Michael Wacha (KC): 11 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
10. Miles Mikolas (STL): 8 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (ATL): 56.2 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
2. Davis Daniel (LAA): 55.6 Strike%, 26.3 Ball%
3. Jack Flaherty (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
4. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 49.5 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
5. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 49.5 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
6. Jose Berrios (TOR): 48.4 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
7. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 47.8 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
8. Miles Mikolas (STL): 46.8 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
9. Michael Wacha (KC): 46.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
10. Jordan Hicks (SF): 45.7 Strike%, 41.5 Ball%
11. Ben Lively (CLE): 43.4 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
12. David Festa (MIN): 42.3 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
13. Jordan Montgomery (ARI): 41.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
14. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 41.2 Strike%, 44.1 Ball%
15. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 39.8 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ben Lively: 76 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.22 POUT
2. Davis Daniel: 99 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.3 POUT
3. Corbin Burnes: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
4. Jose Berrios: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
5. Shota Imanaga: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
6. David Festa: 78 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.2 POUT
7. Jon Gray: 73 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.21 POUT
8. Chris Sale: 105 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.25 POUT
9. Trevor Rogers: 103 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.72 POUT
10. Jack Flaherty: 98 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.76 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Michael Wacha's FF velo (34 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 94.5
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (22 pitches) DOWN -3.3mph to 80.2
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (42 pitches) DOWN -4.1mph to 93.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's ST usage (26.3%) up 15.2 points
Corbin Burnes's SL usage (22.7%) up 11.6 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (24.5%) up 11.3 points
Jordan Montgomery's CH usage (32.4%) up 10.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Sean Manaea Slider: +17.3%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.6%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +16.0%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +14.6%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +13.4%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -13.2%
Randy Vasquez 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Hunter Brown Split-Finger: -12.6%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -12.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Ronel Blanco - 74 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 103 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 80 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 68 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 76 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Chris Sale - 96 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 68 TBF, 44.1% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 41.9% K%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 38.1% K%
Chris Sale - 96 TBF, 37.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 31.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 68 TBF, 39.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 39.2% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 80 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Max Fried - 68 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Tanner Houck - 80 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 72 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Seth Lugo - 103 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Ben Lively - 84 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 84 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 96 TBF, 37.5 K%, 7.3 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 97 TBF, 38.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 48.3% GB%
John King - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 80 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.2 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 47 TBF, 29.8 K%, 2.1 BB%, 75.0% GB%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 41.9 K%, 2.7 BB%, 55.0% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Austin Gomber: 9.39 ERA, 5.13 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 7.24 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Carlos Rodon: 7.16 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 8.25 ERA, 4.83 SIERA
Chris Paddack: 7.43 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
Reese Olson: 6.34 ERA, 3.54 SIERA
JP Sears: 7.99 ERA, 5.34 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery: 7.46 ERA, 4.85 SIERA
Alec Marsh: 6.66 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Shota Imanaga: 6.89 ERA, 4.46 SIERA
Luckiest
Tyler Anderson: 2.83 ERA, 6.18 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 2.28 ERA, 4.74 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 1.95 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
Michael Lorenzen: 2.51 ERA, 4.57 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 2.12 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Corbin Burnes: 1.76 ERA, 3.8 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 3.42 ERA, 5.3 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 2.32 ERA, 4.17 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 1.16 ERA, 3.01 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 1.97 ERA, 3.8 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Ryan Feltner - +2.7% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +6.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Ty Blach - +2.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Justin Steele - +3.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +6.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Ronel Blanco - +9.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Tyler Glasnow - +4.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.6% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +5.1% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +2.6% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Andre Pallante - +4.6% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Bryce Jarvis - +3.2% CSW%, -7.0 BB%
Slade Cecconi - +3.3% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Adrian Houser - +5.2% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +10.3% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Keegan Akin - +8.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Mason Englert - +3.5% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Adley Rutschman (BAL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brendan Donovan (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
George Springer (TOR) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ketel Marte (ARI) 3 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Bobby Witt Jr., Yesterday: 116.9 Previous High: 115.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 116.9mph - field_out
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 112.1mph - single
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 111.6mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.6mph - single
Bo Bichette (TOR) - 111.0mph - single
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 110.3mph - home_run
George Springer (TOR) - 110.2mph - single
Masyn Winn (STL) - 109.7mph - nan
Austin Slater (SF) - 109.2mph - nan
George Springer (TOR) - 109.1mph - home_run
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