MLB Daily Notes - June 29th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitcher Review
Yusei Kikuchi pitched well until the fifth inning. He gave up four earned runs on four hits and a walk, but was otherwise great with seven strikeouts and a 17.9% SwStr%. He is at a nice 13.3% SwStr% and 34% Ball% for the year, so I still like the guy.
Cristopher Sanchez wasted no time with the Marlins yesterday, taking the Phillies to a win all by himself.
9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB, 15.8% SwStr%, 52.5% Strike%
That was 3.74 pitches per out, which is the best of the day by far. He is 18th-best at this for the season with 5.08 pitches per out.
He now sports a 2.31 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, a 21.0% K%, and a 6.4% BB% in 16 starts. That’s a 14.6% K-BB%, which is far from elite, but the 61% GB% keeps a lot of runs off the board and offsets some of the lack of the strikeout.
Charlie Morton kept the zig-zag going.
He is now at a 12.8% SwStr% and 36% Ball% with a 24.4% K% and 10.1% BB%. The walks have been consistent all year. Any time you’re 67 years old and relying so much on your curveball, the results will be mixed, but clearly, this guy can still get it done when he’s on his game.
Max Scherzer worked his way up to 77 pitches.
5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 13.0% SwStr%, 48.1% Strike%, 31.2% Ball%
It's good to see him throwing strikes early on. It’s anybody’s guess what his strikeout rate will be at this point in his career. If the early 12.7% SwStr% and 48% Strike is any indication, he’ll be a 24-25% K% guy, but we’ll see.
Logan Webb kept the Dodgers in the ballpark, and put out a strong effort.
7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 3 BB
He is incredibly tough to homer off of, and that has helped him deliver consistently good ERA marks.
Drew Thorpe's command improved, putting up a 33% Ball%. His season mark is still ridiculously high at 41%, but this was a good step forward.
The updated pitch mix now:
That 3% SwStr% on the fastball is very scary. It’s hard to have success while getting so few strikes with your four-seamer. Like I always say, a changeup isn’t a changeup if it doesn’t have anything to change up.
Slade Cecconi had his best start of the season by many metrics, but not the box score ones.
4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB, 21.6% SwStr%, 54.5% Strike%, 34.1% Ball%
There is pretty impressive stuff there on 88 pitches. Obviously, it’s a problem that he turned 88 pitches into just 12 outs. But hey, that’s a lot of whiffs and there are some takeaways from that outing.
Let’s take a peak at the last 3 weeks K-BB% leaders.
And then let’s chop off the high-owned pitchers:
So… do with that what you will.
Hitter Review
The Athletics had a big offensive night. That’s too bad because I almost mini-stacked them on my DFS lineup but didn’t and then lost. Zack Gelof had three hits (including a triple), and he stole a base.
That’s eight homers and nine steals for him. He has a very high 22% stolen base attempt rate and a decent 8.3% Brl%, so the homers and steals are still there. The problem is the massive 35% K%, which leads to this .205 batting average. I think all we need from him is a 28% K% and a .240 batting average for him to be a very good roto fantasy hitter. He’s a 20-20 pace guy pretty easily. But things aren’t moving in the right direction with a 41% K% over the last two weeks. I wouldn’t want to be starting Gelof now for those reasons, but he will likely have some very good fantasy weeks down the stretch with homers and steals.
Jose Siri hit two bombs. His season has gone pretty much as expected:
245 PA, .219/.300/.424, .724 OPS, 35.5% K%, 8.6% BB%, 11 HR, 7 SB
The SB attempt rate is 25.5%, very high, and he has homered at a great pace (22 PA/HR). It’s the same problem as Gelof with the absurd strikeout rate that leads to a bad batting average and big slumps, but overall, Siri will probably get around 25 homers and 15 steals; quite valuable in deep fantasy leagues.
Brenton Doyle had a combo meal, a smash-and-grab, a blast-and-dash! That means a home run and a steal in the same game. That was the first time he had done that this year.
Eight players have three or more of these types of games:
Keeping this theme going, here is a list of hitters with
200+ PA
SB Attempt% > 20%
PA/HR < 30Ordered by PA/HR
Jose Ramirez
Jo Adell
Jose Siri
Elly De La Cruz
C.J. Abrams
Jackson Chourio
Francisco Lindor
Cedric Mullins
Lane Thomas
Zach Neto
That’s the full list. Only Ramirez, Elly, Abrams, and Neto have a batting average above .250.
Neto keeps coming back into the picture, man. That guy is extremely underrated. He’s now at .253/.306/.435 with 10 homers and 11 steals. That makes him one of just 10 hitters in the 10-10 club.
The other name to mention is Jackson Chourio. His strikeout rate continues to improve.
His barrel rate is moving in the wrong direction, however, so maybe he’s just been focusing on making more contact rather than loud contact.
He also hasn’t stolen a ton of bases this year, which we thought he would. He has just eight, but a high 20.4% attempt rate. I guess he just hasn’t ended up on first base with nobody on second very often (a .286 OBP will do that).
Chourio SB & Attempt% by Month
April: 5 steals, 23.8% Attempt%
May: 2 steals, 21.4% Attempt%
June: 1 steal, 15.8% Attempt%
I think more steals will come, especially if these strikeout improvements stick around.
A quick look into the premium section to see the current super ultra mega hot hitters.
It’s been two years of Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters now. It started as a joke, but now it’s still going. And it’s still pretty much completely useless!
So, take advantage of the yearly discount and join on. I promise you that when you are dead and gone, you won’t miss the $50.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Cristopher Sanchez
2. Slade Cecconi
3. Zach Eflin
4. Yusei Kikuchi
5. Charlie Morton
6. Frankie Montas
7. Colin Rea
8. Max Scherzer
9. JP Sears
10. Bailey Ober
11. Mitchell Parker
12. Ronel Blanco
13. Martin Perez
14. Drew Thorpe
15. Logan Gilbert
16. Kyle Tyler
17. Landon Knack
18. Jameson Taillon
19. Andre Pallante
20. Zach Plesac
21. Marcus Stroman
22. Logan Webb
23. Randy Vasquez
24. Nick Pivetta
25. Dakota Hudson
26. Kenta Maeda
27. Jose Quintana
28. Alec Marsh
29. Albert Suarez
30. Triston McKenzie
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. MIA): 40.45 Points
2. Charlie Morton (vs. PIT): 29.84 Points
3. Zach Eflin (vs. WSH): 26.5 Points
4. Bailey Ober (vs. SEA): 26.5 Points
5. Colin Rea (vs. CHC): 24.99 Points
6. Alec Marsh (vs. CLE): 21.9 Points
7. Andre Pallante (vs. CIN): 21.79 Points
8. Albert Suarez (vs. TEX): 19.7 Points
9. Drew Thorpe (vs. COL): 19.7 Points
10. Landon Knack (vs. SF): 19.51 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 19 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
2. Frankie Montas (CIN): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
4. Charlie Morton (ATL): 15 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
5. Colin Rea (MIL): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 15 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
7. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
8. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Martin Perez (PIT): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
10. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Daulton Jefferies (PIT): 56.9 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%
2. Bailey Ober (MIN): 55.7 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
3. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 54.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
4. Zach Eflin (TB): 53.8 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
5. Colin Rea (MIL): 52.6 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
6. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 52.5 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
7. Martin Perez (PIT): 52.2 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
8. Charlie Morton (ATL): 49.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
9. Drew Thorpe (CWS): 48.9 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
10. Landon Knack (LAD): 48.7 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
11. JP Sears (OAK): 48.2 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
12. Max Scherzer (TEX): 48.1 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
13. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 48.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
14. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 47.9 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
15. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 47.8 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cristopher Sanchez: 101 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.74 POUT
2. Logan Webb: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
3. JP Sears: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
4. Max Scherzer: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT
5. Albert Suarez: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
6. Drew Thorpe: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
7. Randy Vasquez: 59 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.92 POUT
8. Jameson Taillon: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
9. Chase Anderson: 61 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.08 POUT
10. Logan Gilbert: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Andre Pallante's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 80.9
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (45 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 86.1
Cristopher Sanchez's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 85.5
Mitchell Parker's FS velo (21 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 87.8
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (39 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 95.3
Max Scherzer's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.5
Randy Vasquez's ST velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 83.2
Marcus Stroman's SI velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.4
Marcus Stroman's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.2
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.3
Logan Webb's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Albert Suarez's FF usage (63.2%) up 10.5 points
Andre Pallante's SI usage (28.4%) up 18.2 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (25.0%) up 16.4 points
Cristopher Sanchez's CH usage (44.6%) up 11.5 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (23.1%) up 12.5 points
JP Sears's SI usage (14.5%) up 10.3 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (20.4%) up 11.5 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (26.0%) up 15.6 points
Slade Cecconi's SL usage (34.1%) up 10.4 points
Zach Eflin's ST usage (18.3%) up 11.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Sean Manaea Slider: +17.3%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.6%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +16.0%
Paul Skenes Curveball: +14.6%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +13.4%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -13.2%
Hunter Brown Split-Finger: -12.6%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -12.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 103 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 100 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 68 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 98 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Michael King - 72 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 68 TBF, 44.1% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 41.9% K%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 37.0% K%
Michael King - 72 TBF, 36.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Bailey Ober - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 31.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 68 TBF, 39.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 39.2% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Michael King - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 68 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 78 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Andre Pallante - 79 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Max Fried - 68 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Tanner Houck - 80 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Framber Valdez - 74 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 95 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 94 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 37.0 K%, 4.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 47 TBF, 29.8 K%, 2.1 BB%, 75.0% GB%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 41.9 K%, 2.7 BB%, 55.0% GB%
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