MLB Daily Notes - June 30th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
A reader asked about Eloy Jimenez. So here’s the stuff on him. What Eloy is known for is hitting the ball very hard while maintaining a decent K%. not much is different this year:
213 PA
.261/.305/.467
10 HR
13.0% Brl%
25.4% K%
6.1% BB%
65.2% Contact%
50% GB
53% Hard-Hit Rate
The hard-hit rate is still there, the barrel rate is still good, and the launch angle stuff is similar. He’s been around a 50% GB% for his whole career, so this is normal. The K% is up three points from last year, and the contact rate is down four points - so that’s hurting a bit.
There are no glaring problems here, but he has been slightly worse. I guess we could say that Eloy has always been a bit overrated in fantasy because of that hyped-up prospect status he had for a long time. He’s never stolen bases, he’s never stayed healthy, and even when he is healthy - the high GB% and lack of speed keep things down. I think he’ll probably have a pretty good month or two as we get through the year, he’s prone to being very, very good for stretches - and that’s not because he’s “streaky”, it’s just because he is quite a good hitter and good hitters will eventually fall into some good stretches - but he’s really not ever going to be an elite fantasy bat, I don’t think.
Pitchers - Yesterday
The Chris Bassitt season has been weird. Since like 2019 or so, he had been known as a guy that was good, not great, but steady. This season, it’s been the opposite. He’s been among the most polarizing of the pitchers in the league this year, bouncing up and down like crazy.
In his last three starts he has a 1.4% SwStr% and a 17.3% SwStr%, a 39.7% Strike% and a 51% Strike. Massively different outcomes. He has the widest standard deviation of fantasy points scored by outing:
So I don’t know. I guess you just have to keep rolling him out there because these elite starts do come from time to time. For the year:
10.5 SwStr%, 46.9% Strike%, 35.2% Ball%, 22% K%, 8% BB%, 42% GB%
So that’s actually a pretty bad line. If you think he’ll improve from that, fine - start him, but if you think this is who he is - then he’s not really a guy worth starting.
Jesus Luzardo kept on his elite stretch of starts, he’s a must-start guy even though I still think he’ll have some fall-flat starts.
Shane Bieber had a good game, and it was for real with a 14.8% SwStr% and a 49.4% Strike%. He’s actually had a much better June than the previous months:
5 GS, 46% Strike%, 13.0% SwStr%, 36% Ball%, 26% K%, 6% BB%
So that’s a 20% K-BB%, good stuff there - pretty encouraging after he’s been really struggling with strikeouts (still has a K% under 20%).
Brayan Bello did it again. He hasn’t exactly been dominant by the numbers this year:
21.8% K%, 7.1% BB%, 12.4% SwStr%, 57% GB%
But this is stuff I’ve been talking about all year with ground ball rates. People tend to not care about GB% enough, in my opinion, and to me - it helps guys handle lower strikeout rates. A ground ball is such a better outcome on average than a line drive or a fly ball, and ground balls are where almost all double plays come from.
If we look at xwOBA by batted ball type:
All BIP: .374
Fly Balls: .459
Line Drives: .653
Ground Balls: .220
If you aren’t going to get a strikeout, you want to get a popup, if you aren’t going to get a popup, you want to get a ground ball. Bello gets ground balls, and that’s kept the xwOBA below league average - and that should be expected to continue. The reason I really, really like him is that he has this good SwStr% to go with it all - which gives us the hope that he can someday be a reliable 25%+ K% with the 55%+ GB%.
Emmet Sheehan survived Coors Field. He threw 88 pitches with a 12.5% SwStr%, a 50% Strike%, and a 31.8% Ball% - pretty good stuff. For the year now:
10.2% SwStr%, 46.2% Strike%, 19% K%, 6% BB%, 34% GB%
Pretty mediocre to bad stuff overall, but he’s getting results in the box score. I don’t think he’s a guy you have to roster in redraft leagues. Not only has the performance been less than convincing, it’s also not nearly a sure thing that he’ll stay in the Majors.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Bassitt (vs. SF): 37.9 Points
2. Jesus Luzardo (vs. BOS): 29.84 Points
3. Shane Bieber (vs. KC): 27.7 Points
4. Taijuan Walker (vs. CHC): 23.3 Points
5. Max Scherzer (vs. MIL): 22.1 Points
6. Brayan Bello (vs. MIA): 21.95 Points
7. J.P. France (vs. STL): 20.15 Points
8. Adrian Houser (vs. NYM): 18.7 Points
9. Yonny Chirinos (vs. ARI): 17.5 Points
10. Joe Musgrove (vs. PIT): 16.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn (CWS): 24 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 19 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
3. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 18 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
4. Cody Bradford (TEX): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
5. Brayan Bello (BOS): 12 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Shane Bieber (CLE): 12 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
7. Chase Anderson (COL): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
8. Joe Musgrove (SD): 11 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Steven Matz (STL): 11 Whiffs (64 Pitches)
10. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 11 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cody Bradford (TEX): 57.8 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 57.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
3. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 53.6 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
4. Chase Anderson (COL): 52.9 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
5. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 51.0 Strike%, 40.4 Ball%
6. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 50.0 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
7. Shane Bieber (CLE): 49.4 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
8. Max Scherzer (NYM): 49.0 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
9. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 47.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
10. Lance Lynn (CWS): 47.6 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
11. Steven Matz (STL): 46.9 Strike%, 43.8 Ball%
12. Joe Musgrove (SD): 46.2 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
13. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 46.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
14. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 45.9 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
15. Brayan Bello (BOS): 45.5 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
Pitchers & Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
J.P. France's FC velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.5
Jake Woodford's ST velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.0
Zack Greinke's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 71.2
Emmet Sheehan's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 80.9
Zack Greinke's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.6
Zack Greinke's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 77.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Houser's SI usage (58.0%) up 12.0 points
Clarke Schmidt's FC usage (36.6%) up 12.3 points
Emmet Sheehan's FF usage (68.2%) up 20.8 points
Lance Lynn's SL usage (29.5%) up 28.3 points
Luis L. Ortiz's SI usage (43.9%) up 17.7 points
Patrick Sandoval's ST usage (12.5%) up 11.3 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (38.1%) up 23.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +27.7%
Shintaro Fujinami Split-Finger: -27.4%
Shintaro Fujinami 4-Seam Fastball: +26.9%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +19.3%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -19.0%
Adrian Houser Sinker: +18.6%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -17.3%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Bryce Miller Slider: +16.8%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -16.2%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +16.1%
Shohei Ohtani 4-Seam Fastball: +16.1%
Austin Gomber Slider: +15.9%
Dane Dunning Slider: +15.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +15.6%
Cole Irvin Sinker: +15.6%
Paul Blackburn Sinker: -15.1%
Blake Snell 4-Seam Fastball: -14.9%
Shintaro Fujinami Sweeper: +14.9%
Bobby Miller Sinker: +14.8%
Merrill Kelly 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Julio Teheran Cutter: +14.5%
Adrian Houser 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: -12.9%
Michael Grove Slider: +12.9%
Paul Blackburn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.8%
Sandy Alcantara 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Trevor Williams Slider: +12.4%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Drew Smyly Cutter: +12.3%
Jameson Taillon Sinker: -12.1%
Daniel Lynch Slider: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Garrett Whitlock - 106 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 73 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 97 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
James Kaprielian - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 86 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 84 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 105 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 49.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Braxton Garrett - 84 TBF, 38.1% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 86 TBF, 36.0% K%
Reid Detmers - 73 TBF, 35.6% K%
Pablo Lopez - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Lance Lynn - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Eury Perez - 86 TBF, 34.9% K%
Bryan Woo - 81 TBF, 33.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 44.0% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 84 TBF, 34.5% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 86 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 102 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 76 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Bryan Woo - 81 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Lucas Giolito - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 108 TBF, 68.3% GB%
Hunter Brown - 73 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Bryce Elder - 98 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Keaton Winn - 71 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 99 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 110 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 105 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Shane Bieber - 97 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 99 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Brady Singer - 97 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 49.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 84 TBF, 38.1 K%, 3.6 BB%, 54.2% GB%
Griffin Canning - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
James Paxton - 61 TBF, 29.5 K%, 3.3 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 90 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Josh Sborz - 45 TBF, 35.6 K%, 4.4 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Shane Bieber - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 56.5% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 87 TBF, 28.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Zac Gallen - +4.4% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Lucas Giolito - +2.5% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Blake Snell - +9.7% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +2.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Framber Valdez - +2.4% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Garrett Whitlock - +3.5% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Tommy Henry - +2.8% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
George Kirby - +5.0% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Dean Kremer - +4.0% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Dylan Cease - +3.1% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
James Kaprielian - +6.4% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Griffin Canning - +2.3% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Anthony DeSclafani - +2.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Cole Irvin - +5.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jakob Junis - +5.3% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Ken Waldichuk - +4.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Josh Sborz - +9.0% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Hitters
Eight hitters have 11+ barrels this month:
Here’s your Brl% vs. HR% plot in June
June xBA Leaders:
Drew Waters deserves some respect
Season:
92 PA, .235/.293/.376, 3 HR, 19.6% Brl%, 10.9% Brl/PA, 37% K%, 65% Cont%
^ That is a guy swinging out of his shoes and missing a lot.
Last 3 Weeks:
62 PA, .232/.306/.393, 2 HR, 23.5% Brl%, 12.9% Brl/PA, 36% K%, 65% Cont%
So I guess not much has changed other than he’s run into a few more, the contact stuff is still horrific, so I guess maybe he doesn’t deserve some respect. Never mind, screw you Drew (respectfully).
Brandon Marsh is “hot” again. What I mean to say is that Brandon Marsh is undergoing the positive side of the random variations of baseball in the recent past.
That’s what I’m going to call hot from now, I might even write a macro just to replace “hot” with that. I can even make it an acronym UTPSOTRVOBITRP. Yeah, that really flows off the tongue.
This plot is hilarious:
I don’t know dude, I don’t want that guy - but he can certainly do some damage for you if things are going right.
And onward to the hitter reports:
Multiple Barrels
Ryan Noda (OAK) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Joc Pederson (SF) - 113.8mph - foul
Josh Bell (CLE) - 112.4mph - single
Josh Donaldson (NYY) - 112.3mph - home_run
Luke Raley (TB) - 111.9mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.5mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 111.3mph - home_run
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 111.0mph - field_out
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.0mph - home_run
Mitch Garver (TEX) - 110.7mph - single
Seth Brown (OAK) - 110.5mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jesus Sanchez - 62 PA, 0.189 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff
Pavin Smith - 59 PA, 0.247 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Connor Joe - 61 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 60 PA, 0.26 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Ryan Noda - 78 PA, 0.243 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Michael Conforto - 65 PA, 0.247 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Dominic Smith - 70 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Willy Adames - 79 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Alex Kirilloff - 61 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Austin Riley - 81 PA, 0.289 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Bottom 10
Jake McCarthy - 72 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, -0.132 Diff
Lane Thomas - 82 PA, 0.454 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.132 Diff
Austin Hays - 73 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Michael Harris II - 70 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 77 PA, 0.347 wOBA, 0.24 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Royce Lewis - 59 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Corbin Carroll - 84 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Nick Madrigal - 59 PA, 0.369 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 0.486 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Brandon Drury - 76 PA, 0.404 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 87 PA, 55 BIP, 17 Brls, 30.9 Brl%
Drew Waters - 62 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Luis Robert - 81 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Corey Seager - 87 PA, 62 BIP, 14 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 81 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 51 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 64 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Ryan O'Hearn - 51 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Matt Olson - 80 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Mickey Moniak - 53 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 87 PA, 0.600 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 85 PA, 0.492 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 87 PA, 0.474 xwOBA
Ryan O'Hearn - 51 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 79 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Matt Vierling - 50 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 70 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 77 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 72 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
David Peralta - 49 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Tony Kemp - 51 PA, 71 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 141 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 67 PA, 115 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 59 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 76 PA, 136 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 69 PA, 106 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 78 PA, 120 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 74 PA, 123 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 137 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Luis Garcia - 79 PA, 160 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
TJ Friedl - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Trea Turner - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jarren Duran - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Drew Waters - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Henry Davis - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
David Hamilton - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Andrew Velazquez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ozzie Albies - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Christian Walker - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zach Remillard - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Tommy Pham - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Michael Harris II - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 17 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 16 Attempts (14 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Trea Turner - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Christian Yelich - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jarren Duran - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Spencer Steer - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Wander Franco - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 8 Attempts (4 steals)
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