MLB Daily Notes - June 30th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I am running a special until Tuesday. You can get a yearly subscription for $50, which is $30 cheaper than usual. That means you will get the rest of this season, the full off-season (draft prep!), and the first half of last season for just that $50.
Could you give us a more extensive "hitter magic formula list" and "super ultra mega hot hitter" list so we can add some of the top 20-ish? ~ Michael
There are many ways to do that. To be a Magic Formula Qualifier is to have a Brl% above 14% and a K% under 20%. For June, there are only six:
For the season, there are only four:
It is an illustrious list, not many cases! But I put it in the notes using the last three weeks just for those special times when someone lesser known shows up. You can find this on the main dashboard for any time frame you want, and you can even mess with the thresholds however you want.
As for the super ultra mega hot hitters, that’s pretty dumb and you shouldn’t pay it much mind, but here’s today’s:
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Austin Riley - 0.512 xwOBA, 21.6% Brl%, 77.1% Contact%, 24.8% Chase%, 19.6% K%
Francisco Alvarez - 0.405 xwOBA, 12.9% Brl%, 75.6% Contact%, 20.8% Chase%, 17.0% K%
Gunnar Henderson - 0.455 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 85.3% Contact%, 17.6% Chase%, 15.2% K%
Jonathan India - 0.434 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 84.8% Contact%, 17.7% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Juan Soto - 0.462 xwOBA, 14.8% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 17.7% Chase%, 18.5% K%
Pete Alonso - 0.403 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 77.8% Contact%, 21.5% Chase%, 21.4% K%
I don’t even remember the criteria for this one. For some reason, I also put the chase rate in there, which I would not include if I were doing that today. My aim was to find the hitters swinging at the right pitches and making high-impact contact at a high rate. Also, note that this isn’t a “top 5” or “top 10” or whatever; it’s just a full list of every hitter that qualifies (same for MFQ). This will usually give you a handful of hitters with a lot of good results lately. The reason it’s not that useful is that it’s not very predictive. These hitters, in most cases, will be recent beneficiaries of bad pitching and the positive side of variance.
Pitcher Review
It is Sunday, so I’m strapped for time. Quick hits here:
Pablo Lopez was awesome again, this time in Seattle. Nine strikeouts and 18 whiffs.
Zac Gallen’s return was strong, with six scoreless innings with just one hit, one walk, seven strikeouts, and a 16.9% SwStr%.
Bryce Miller hit our strikeout prop, punching out six Twins on a 16.1% SwStr% and 51.7% Strike%. That’s good to see after a rough outing last time. He has been up-and-down and looks like a more average strikeout pitcher overall, but I’m still viewing him very favorably for the near and far future.
Tanner Houck had a bad one, giving up nine hits and seven earnies. The 13.8% SwStr% and 50% Strike% were still pretty good. Definitely some bad fortune there.
Paul Skenes only had a 47.1% Strike% and 12.7% SwStr% against the Braves, the fastball velo was down a bit, but the result was still excellent with one run allowed (a lead-off homer no less) on six hits and two walks. He struck out nine, so he made the pitches when he needed to.
Cade Povich was once again unable to fool hitters (three whiffs, 3.5% SwStr%), but landed enough strikes (48.8%) to get through five innings. He gave up two runs on five hits with three strikeouts, and most importantly, he did not walk anyone.
Tanner Bibee’s big strikeout run ended with just three punchies on a 6.7% SwStr%, but he did get a quality start and beat the Royals. Remember that Kansas City has been a very tough matchup for SPs this year.
I don’t want to judge Tylor Megill on a start against the Astros, but at this point, it’s probably time to pack it in. He hasn’t given us an actual good start yet, despite the high strikeout rate. And he could very well end up in the bullpen soon.
Cole Ragans indeed struggled against the Guardians as the projection model suggested. 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 6 K, 1 BB. He generated just 10 whiffs and did not throw strikes (44.1% Ball%, 41.9% Strike%). No reason to waver on him given his full-season numbers.
For more SP data from yesterday, check out this resource.
There is no time for anything else this morning. Have a good Sunday! I want to say I’d get a slate preview out today, because I’ve been really enjoying doing those, but it’s not in the cards today, I don’t think. We’ll be back on that tomorrow.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez
2. Zac Gallen
3. Sonny Gray
4. Bryce Miller
5. Justin Steele
6. Aaron Nola
7. Reese Olson
8. Cal Quantrill
9. Tanner Houck
10. Chris Bassitt
11. Tobias Myers
12. Tanner Bibee
13. Michael King
14. Paul Skenes
15. Tylor Megill
16. Roddery Munoz
17. Tyler Glasnow
18. Jonathan Cannon
19. Framber Valdez
20. Hogan Harris
21. Griffin Canning
22. Cole Ragans
23. Carson Spiers
24. Jake Irvin
25. Nestor Cortes
26. Max Fried
27. Cade Povich
28. Michael Lorenzen
29. Aaron Civale
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (vs. SEA): 30.5 Points
2. Zac Gallen (vs. OAK): 30.3 Points
3. Chris Bassitt (vs. NYY): 28.7 Points
4. Paul Skenes (vs. ATL): 24.7 Points
5. Michael King (vs. BOS): 23.9 Points
6. Aaron Nola (vs. MIA): 23.41 Points
7. Jake Irvin (vs. TB): 23.1 Points
8. Reese Olson (vs. LAA): 22.7 Points
9. Carson Spiers (vs. STL): 21.1 Points
10. Tanner Bibee (vs. KC): 17.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 18 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Sonny Gray (STL): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
3. Reese Olson (DET): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Bryce Miller (SEA): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
5. Cal Quantrill (COL): 14 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
7. Zac Gallen (ARI): 13 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
8. Paul Skenes (PIT): 13 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
9. Tanner Houck (BOS): 11 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
10. Justin Steele (CHC): 11 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 55.3 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
2. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 55.1 Strike%, 25.8 Ball%
3. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 54.3 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
4. Michael King (SD): 53.9 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
5. Aaron Nola (PHI): 53.0 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
6. Cal Quantrill (COL): 52.2 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
7. Bryce Miller (SEA): 51.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Zac Gallen (ARI): 50.6 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
9. Tylor Megill (NYM): 50.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
10. Tanner Houck (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%
11. Sonny Gray (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
12. Reese Olson (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
13. Justin Steele (CHC): 50.0 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
14. Cade Povich (BAL): 48.8 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
15. Tobias Myers (MIL): 48.8 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zac Gallen: 77 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.28 POUT
2. Osvaldo Bido: 62 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.43 POUT
3. Tobias Myers: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
4. Justin Steele: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
5. Michael King: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
6. Aaron Nola: 100 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Carson Spiers: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Gordon Graceffo: 67 Pitches, 13 Outs, 5.15 POUT
9. Chris Bassitt: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
10. Pablo Lopez: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tanner Bibee's CU velo (28 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 83.0
Justin Steele's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.2
Zac Gallen's FF velo (31 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 95.2
Griffin Canning's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.9
Aaron Civale's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 76.2
Zac Gallen's CU velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 80.4
Cole Ragans's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.4
Cole Ragans's FF velo (44 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 94.4
Tanner Bibee's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 80.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (22.5%) up 14.9 points
Bryce Miller's FS usage (27.6%) up 20.1 points
Bryce Miller's SI usage (23.0%) up 10.2 points
Griffin Canning's FF usage (48.0%) up 12.9 points
Hogan Harris's SL usage (17.8%) up 13.2 points
Jake Irvin's CU usage (45.8%) up 11.9 points
Sonny Gray's FC usage (31.5%) up 15.7 points
Tanner Bibee's CU usage (31.5%) up 21.8 points
Tanner Houck's FS usage (31.2%) up 10.7 points
Tyler Glasnow's SI usage (19.7%) up 16.7 points
Zac Gallen's SL usage (16.9%) up 13.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +20.1%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Sean Manaea Slider: +17.3%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +16.0%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +13.4%
Hogan Harris Slider: +13.3%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.3%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -13.2%
Hunter Brown Split-Finger: -12.6%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -12.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 103 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 100 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 91 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 98 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 37.5% K%
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 37.0% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Pablo Lopez - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Bailey Ober - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Paul Skenes - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
DJ Herz - 78 TBF, 30.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 91 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 76 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Andre Pallante - 79 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 78 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 95 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 94 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Jake Irvin - 90 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Seth Lugo - 103 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 103 TBF, 53.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 73 TBF, 37.0 K%, 4.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 98 TBF, 32.7 K%, 4.1 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Sonny Gray - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 4.1 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 51.9% GB%
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