MLB Daily Notes - June 3rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitcher Review
Gavin Stone ripped off a rare good start
5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 K, 2 BB, 20% SwStr%
He has not had a ton of trouble getting whiffs in his Major League career (14% SwStr% on 1,483 pitches), but that hasn’t turned into anything good with a 17% K% and a 4.55 ERA. But last night was good. Here’s the pitch mix for the year:
The 12.9% SwStr% and 46% Strike% don’t match up, that’s a decent SwStr% and a bad Strike%. It’s the same as last year. He does not get many called strike:
I’ve never really figured out what called strikes are about. Guys that are in the zone a ton will get a lot of called strikes, and command specialists especially will show up well in this category. The average called strike is around the corners, so I guess we could just say that Stone doesn’t paint the corners very well. His overall Location+ this year according to FanGraphs is 100.7, so that’s slightly better than average, but his Stuff+ hasn’t been good at 96.4. It seems like Stone is still a ways away from fantasy relevance if he’s ever even able to get there.
The Location+ Leaders for this year while I have it pulled up:
You can see there that only three names have above-average Stuff+ at the same time (Pfaadt, Kirby, Wheeler). And there’s not a ton of correlation with success on this front.
Pitching+ is the most correlated with success, which makes sense because it is a measure of stuff and locations.
No big surprises there besides guys like Gore, Kikuchi, Paddack, and Bello probably showing up higher than you thought.
Charlie Morton walked five hitters and now has walked 11 in his last three starts.
The 35.7% Ball% is still better than average but it’s worse lately. And Morton doesn’t the same strikeout ability that he used to being so reliant on the curveball, so it’s not looking all that great for ole Ground Chuck.
Speaking of curveballs, Ben Brown let us down
5 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 6 K, 1 BB
Still not the worst start in the world with a 47.4% Strike%, 34.2% Ball%, and 14.5% SwStr%. His season K-BB% is still 21% with a 14.8% SwStr% and 34% Ball%.
He should get another crack at the Reds next weekend, this time in Cincinnati. I think I’d hold him for now to see what happens. He went 70% four-seamer usage yesterday. He put up a 13.2% SwStr% on the pitch but just a 43% Strike%, so they were putting it in play. For his season:
Stuff+: 111.6
Location+: 96.6
Pitching+: 100.4
I’m not holding on for long, but the Reds are a good matchup even at home so I’d give him one more shot.
Brandon Pfaadt was mentioned above and he pitched yesterday as well. Just more good inputs but bad outputs though:
6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, 14.3% SwStr%, 33% Ball%
Those aren’t terrible outputs, but you really don’t want your starting pitcher giving up four earned runs, but you have to like the 8:2 K:BB. His season SIERA is 3.49 now, well below the 4.32 ERA, so I would keep on keeping on with Pfaadt - there should be some pretty good numbers coming.
Zack Littell gave up 11 hits and three earned runs. He started extremely well but has not been nearly as good lately:
April: 13.5% SwStr%, 52% Strike%, 30% Ball%
May-Jun: 11.7% SwStr%, 48% Strike%, 31% Ball%
The second version of Littell is much more what I expected coming into the season. He wasn’t a whiffs guy last year and the stuff (83 Stuff+) doesn’t make you think he ever will be. So he’s a borderline standard league option now, I would say.
Nick Lodolo has not been getting the swinging strikes since his return from the IL.
Just a 7.8% SwStr% yesterday and three strikeouts in six innings. He still gave up just two runs in those innings, so that’s good - but at least in these most recent two starts he does not look like his usual dominant self.
Hunter Brown struck out seven more with just one walk and three runs given up in six innings. The 11.6% SwStr% was unimpressive but a nice 50.5% Strike% here and that 7:1 K:BB.
He started throwing a sinker on May 5th, and recently he has really dropped the four-seam usage.
Since May 5th:
3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27.3% K%, 8.3% BB%, 12.6% SwStr%, 36.6% Ball%, 52% GB%
Pretty solid numbers really, I’m calling Brown a 14-team league add right now, and maybe even a twelver. I believe he gets the Angels next.
Hitters
Some surprising demotions of late
Spencer Torkelson
Reid Detmers
Edouard Julien
I guess that’s only relevant for dynasty leagues since the advice is just a clear drop in redraft. I would hold Torkelson tightly in dynasty for sure, he’s just 24 and we saw what he was capable of last year. He could even come back up this year and have a big second half like last season.
As for Detmers, I was really surprised to see a guy with a 3.87 SIERA demoted. That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. There’s no way they have someone better to replace him with, and what does he gain by going back to AAA? Maybe they have some specific things they want him to work on but not in MLB games, that would make sense. I would imagine he’s back pretty quickly, but we’ll see. You don’t need to hold him in redraft leagues, and I think it’s pretty well established that he’s not going to be a must-start guy in fantasy any time soon.
As for Julien, he just couldn’t make enough contact at the highest level to stick. The 34% K% and 69% Contact% kept the batting average at .207 and even with the power (11.7% Brl%, 7 HR), that’s not enough when you play second base. Catchers or elite centerfielders can stick around with those numbers, but not a guy playing second.
Conversely, Henry Davis is also returning from AAA. There’s no reason for us to care in redraft fantasy, but he did go down there and post a 1.066 OPS with seven homers in his 102 PAs, very impressive. The difference is just striking with some of these guys. Big league pitching is so, so much better than AAA. Pirate fan will want to believe that he made an adjustment and figured it out and now he’ll be much better in the Majors. I doubt that’s the story. I think he’ll be better for sure, but that’s just because he was sooo bad (.162/.280/.206) that it’s harder to not be better. Natural regression.
I meant to mention Miguel Andujar here yesterday. He’s back in the A’s lineup with his 1.019 OPS in 34 PAs. Dating back to last year, he has an .844 OPS in 124 MLB PAs with a homer every 21 PAs and three steals on an elite 12% K%. I think the dude might be a 12-team league bat.
Jorge Soler is showing up as a Magic Formula Qualifier. It’s good to keep an eye on that section of the notes during the day, because there are plenty of breakout bats that show up there first. This year there haven’t been many surprising names there, it’s usually just studs.
For the year, Soler has a very low 8.5% Brl% (for his standards) and a 22.7% K%. Since May 16th he has a 14% Brl% but just one homer.
There could be a barrage of homers coming. Don’t forget this guy hit 36 homers last year and has 82 since 2021 (a 20.2 PA/HR).
Brandon Marsh is in the “improving contact rates” section here, gaining 10 points on his contact rate over these last thirty days as compared to his years prior.
Marsh is a streaky guy for sure, he does this all the time with these huge months that are followed by terribleness.
But since May 4th he has just a 20% K% and a .250 AVG with four steals, but the power isn’t there at all with no homers and a .313 SLG, so nevermind he still stinks - just in a different way now.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta
2. Gavin Stone
3. Luis Castillo
4. Charlie Morton
5. Andrew Heaney
6. Simeon Woods Richardson
7. Carlos Carrasco
8. Brandon Pfaadt
9. Cole Ragans
10. Luis Medina
11. Ben Brown
12. Jake Irvin
13. Blake Snell
14. Nestor Cortes
15. Quinn Priester
16. Hunter Brown
17. Trevor Rogers
18. Griffin Canning
19. Chris Bassitt
20. Lance Lynn
21. Taijuan Walker
22. Nick Lodolo
23. Michael King
24. Jose Quintana
25. Casey Mize
26. Brayan Bello
27. Cole Irvin
28. Austin Gomber
29. Zack Littell
30. Nick Nastrini
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Andrew Heaney (vs. MIA): 29.1 Points
2. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. LAA): 28.75 Points
3. Gavin Stone (vs. COL): 23.65 Points
4. Luis Medina (vs. ATL): 22.36 Points
5. Jake Irvin (vs. CLE): 21.9 Points
6. Charlie Morton (vs. OAK): 21.9 Points
7. Freddy Peralta (vs. CWS): 20.25 Points
8. Cole Ragans (vs. SD): 19.3 Points
9. Michael King (vs. KC): 18.15 Points
10. Griffin Canning (vs. SEA): 18.01 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 21 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 21 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
3. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Gavin Stone (LAD): 15 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
5. Charlie Morton (ATL): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Blake Snell (SF): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Cole Ragans (KC): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 13 Whiffs (71 Pitches)
10. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 56.8 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
2. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 55.7 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
3. Gavin Stone (LAD): 54.7 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
4. Peter Lambert (COL): 54.2 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
5. Jake Irvin (WSH): 53.1 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%
6. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 53.0 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
7. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 52.1 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 51.6 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
9. Luis Medina (OAK): 50.6 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
10. Hunter Brown (HOU): 50.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
11. Charlie Morton (ATL): 48.5 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
12. Ben Brown (CHC): 47.4 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
13. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 47.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
14. Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 46.5 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
15. Casey Mize (DET): 46.3 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Griffin Canning: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
2. Cole Irvin: 90 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.74 POUT
3. Trevor Rogers: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
4. Luis Castillo: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
5. Nick Lodolo: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
6. Brayan Bello: 95 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Gavin Stone: 75 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Brandon Pfaadt: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
9. Simeon Woods Richardson: 66 Pitches, 13 Outs, 5.08 POUT
10. Zack Littell: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (24 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 90.3
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.2
Taijuan Walker's ST velo (20 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.2
Brayan Bello's CH velo (23 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 88.3
Luis Medina's CU velo (22 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 81.6
Peter Lambert's FF velo (31 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 95.0
Trevor Rogers's FF velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.7
Zack Littell's FF velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.0
Zack Littell's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.7
Trevor Rogers's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.9
Cole Ragans's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.3
Zack Littell's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 85.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Pfaadt's SI usage (27.5%) up 13.9 points
Brayan Bello's SL usage (35.8%) up 11.6 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (44.4%) up 15.2 points
Freddy Peralta's CH usage (27.8%) up 12.9 points
Gavin Stone's SL usage (25.3%) up 14.3 points
Griffin Canning's CH usage (38.7%) up 16.1 points
Hunter Brown's FS usage (17.9%) up 10.4 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (12.6%) up 10.5 points
Jake Irvin's FC usage (21.4%) up 16.8 points
Lance Lynn's SI usage (26.9%) up 11.4 points
Luis Medina's CU usage (24.7%) up 12.4 points
Nick Nastrini's SL usage (48.7%) up 17.4 points
Quinn Priester's SL usage (46.0%) up 22.4 points
Taijuan Walker's ST usage (21.5%) up 17.9 points
Zack Littell's FS usage (31.2%) up 10.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -18.1%
Javier Assad Sinker: +17.2%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -16.5%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Luis Severino Sinker: +15.1%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +14.9%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.6%
Nick Pivetta 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Nick Pivetta Cutter: -14.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.3%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Michael Wacha Slider: +12.7%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.2%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 71 TBF, 47.1% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 40.2% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 92 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Luis Gil - 74 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Ben Brown - 78 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Ray Kerr - 74 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 66 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Matt Waldron - 72 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Gil - 74 TBF, 41.9% K%
Jack Flaherty - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%
Ben Brown - 78 TBF, 35.9% K%
Sonny Gray - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Paul Skenes - 64 TBF, 35.9% K%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 35.4% K%
Matt Waldron - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 32.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Gil - 74 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 71 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 64 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Matt Waldron - 72 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Ben Brown - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 66 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 68.1% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 103 TBF, 64.7% GB%
Brayan Bello - 99 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Max Fried - 81 TBF, 63.3% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 101 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 76 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Reese Olson - 89 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Jose Soriano - 98 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Paul Skenes - 64 TBF, 52.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 99 TBF, 30.3 K%, 2.0 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 89 TBF, 32.6 K%, 6.7 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Hayden Wesneski - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 6.4 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Hunter Brown - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 71 TBF, 38.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 64 TBF, 35.9 K%, 4.7 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 103 TBF, 29.1 K%, 3.9 BB%, 64.7% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 66 TBF, 30.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 99 TBF, 29.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Keaton Winn: 18.35 ERA, 5.74 SIERA
Bryce Elder: 11.58 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 9.84 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Ross Stripling: 9.97 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Martin Perez: 8.31 ERA, 4.3 SIERA
Matthew Liberatore: 7.43 ERA, 3.96 SIERA
Blake Snell: 7.5 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
Mason Black: 8.79 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Nick Nastrini: 10.95 ERA, 7.87 SIERA
Cristian Javier: 8.74 ERA, 5.74 SIERA
Luckiest
Bailey Falter: 2.23 ERA, 5.38 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 1.95 ERA, 4.95 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.36 ERA, 4.92 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.3 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 2.73 ERA, 5.27 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.52 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 1.34 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 1.98 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
Luis Gil: 0.84 ERA, 3.0 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 1.74 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Nick Pivetta - +3.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Justin Verlander - +2.7% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Matt Waldron - +5.1% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.0% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Zac Gallen - +5.4% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Brad Keller - +3.1% CSW%, -7.5 BB%
Tylor Megill - +2.5% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Alec Burleson (STL) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Garrett Cooper (BOS) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Juan Soto (NYY) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ketel Marte (ARI) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Victor Caratini (HOU) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Enmanuel Valdez, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 109.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 117.2mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 116.1mph - single
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 114.2mph - fielders_choice_out
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 112.6mph - double
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) - 111.8mph - double
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.8mph - double
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 111.4mph - single
Jarren Duran (BOS) - 111.2mph - single
Luke Raley (SEA) - 110.8mph - home_run
Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) - 110.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Christopher Morel - 78 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, 0.121 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 60 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff
Max Kepler - 57 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.36 xwOBA, 0.094 Diff
Alec Bohm - 83 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, 0.093 Diff
Colton Cowser - 64 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff
Jonah Heim - 60 PA, 0.182 wOBA, 0.272 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Ketel Marte - 77 PA, 0.311 wOBA, 0.398 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Vaughn Grissom - 58 PA, 0.194 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 71 PA, 0.237 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Adam Duvall - 59 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Bottom 10
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 0.495 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Alex Bregman - 85 PA, 0.403 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Kevin Pillar - 56 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 84 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Matt Vierling - 68 PA, 0.444 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 58 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 68 PA, 0.333 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 88 PA, 0.369 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 61 PA, 0.323 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Masyn Winn - 63 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
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