MLB Daily Notes - June 4th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I have never been much of a beach guy, but like a lot of things, I’ve come to appreciate it a lot more since having kids. The main thing is that the kids can be loud and crazy as they want down there and I still can’t really hear them from the roaring of the ocean. And some day they’ll be old enough to just go play by themselves and I’ll actually get to sit down for long stretches of time and read, that will be amazing.
It is quite a sound, the ocean. I think there’s probably something heavenly about it. I guess I’m not sure if there will be sound as we know it in heaven or how any of that will work, but I have come to believe there’s certain things on earth that point to it and that we’ll recognize there.
Today, Tyler Glasnow returns to Pittsburgh. According to my pitcher game logs on the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard, Glasnow has not faced Pittsburgh since 2021.
And then his baseball-reference career splits page confirms it.
I have considered pushing the MLB & MiLB Stats dashboard back further than 2021, but I don’t think I’ll ever do it. There’s gotta be some limit to how much data Tableau can take on, and I don’t want to bog it down with data that is rarely looked at. I will keep 2021 as the earliest year on that for as long as I can handle it. But if there’s any performance degradation I’ll probably chop off 2021. It’s an amazing dashboard man, probably the most useful one I have.
A lot of people probably don’t even remember pre-Rays Tyler Glasnow. But I do… I do. I had many emotional debates with people about him, I loved the man the first time I laid eyes on him. The earliest tweet I can find:
And how prophetic it was! 2017 was three full years before I had a Master’s Degree in Data Science, and even at that point I knew how high the year-over-year R-squared value of player height is. I predicted that Glasnow would still be incredibly tall in 2024, and I was right - and that was seven years ago!
Also pretty good point by young JA on the “you can fix control problems”. Now, maybe the Pirates can’t fix control problems, but the Rays sure can. And they sure did. And now look at Glasnow, the ace of the best team in the league with a $136 million contract rolling into town as the favorite for the Cy Young Award. I’m so happy for him, and more importantly, I’m so happy for myself that I was right about him.
Height is a big advantage for a pitcher, if you didn’t know. When you watch Glasnow you’re like wow this guy is guy is basically pitching a foot closer to the plate than most guys. That gives the hitters less time to react, and any millisecond a pitcher can get makes a difference. I checked the average release points for four-seamers and found this top-ten:
Logan Gilbert is 6’6’’, I didn’t even know that. I should throw in the velo’s there too and round some of those numbers.
So the starters releasing the ball way out there and still throwing it above 96, that’s only Glasnow and then two closers in Romano and Diaz.
There’s a column in the raw dataset that takes this into account and measures “effective velocity”. So this is an attempt to adjust that release velocity for where the pitch is actually released to get an idea of what the hitter is dealing with. The biggest differentials in actual vs. “effective” have pretty much the same names, the taller guys have the biggest advantage:
So Falter’s 92mph fastball is more like 94, so that explains a little bit of the season he’s having where he’s beating all of the indicators. Glasnow’s 96 functions more like 98.5, and when he’s at the upper end of his velo range, you’re in triple-digits in “effective”. Here are his ten hardest-thrown fastballs of the season with the effective velo shown:
I assume that everybody in the world will be watching Glasnow vs. Jones tonight, so when you see Glasnow hit 98+ with a fastball, now you can tell whatever person you’re watching with “hey that said 98 but his height and release point of the pitch actually makes the pitch effectively over 100 miles per hour” and then you can give off a very pretentious and nasally chortle.
Pitcher Review
Nathan Eovaldi lit it up with a 7:0 K:BB in 5.2 strong innings. He’s now up to a 26.2% K% and 9.4% BB%. He was at 23% and 8% last year, so solid movement in strikeouts but a step backward in walks. He has come off the IL with heightened velocity, and that’s certainly a good thing to see. I just can’t trust the guy moving forward given his history of losing and gaining velocity and going on and off the IL.
Andrew Abbott put up a Coors Quality. Although it was basically the bare-minny qually. 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB. Road pitchers in Coors have a 4.81 ERA this year, so that’s not very good but it’s not nearly as bad as we have seen in the past (the league average ERA is 3.95 this year). Abbott has a poor 12.1% K-BB% this year with an 18% K%, he’s certainly not a standard league pitcher.
Thank God Kevin Gausman got that out in the 7th or else he would have had the vaunted 6-6-6 line. 6.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 K, 1 BB. The K% is down to 22.7% now with a 5.8% BB% and the SwStr% is 12.5%. He’s not the same guy, so starts like this are going to happen going forward I think. The .330 BABIP and 10.9% Brl% should both come down, but yeah every start like this has me moving him down further and further in my mental SP ranks.
MacKenzie Gore had a bad one. 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 K, 4 BB (vs. NYM). The ghost of the walks came back to haunt him. This was the first time all season he had given up more than three earned runs, and just the second time he’s walked more than two hitters. I wouldn’t let this change your view of him, the season 27.3% K% and 7.7% BB% are still incredibly strong.
Tyler Megill on the other side of that struggled as well. 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K, 3 BB. We haven’t seen a ton of Megill yet this year so it’s tough to judge, but it’s been a mixed bag of results. You like the 27% K% and the 12.6% SwStr% is okay, but the 39.5% Ball% and 35% GB% are pretty scary. If you have him, I’d roll him out a couple more starts to see what you have, but of course that depends on who is available on the waiver wire. I’d view him as a fringe-12-teamer guy, but I do think he has more upside than a lot of other guys in that same range.
Nolan Gorman bombed two out, so I dusted off the rolling Brl% and K% plot, which I should be using more often!
You like the barrels, but you don’t like the also-increasing strikeout rate. Over his last 15 games he’s striking out 43% of the time, but the homers have followed to make up for it. That’s what you get from Gorman, a bunch of strikeouts but also a lot of homers at the same time.
I really wanted to keep this going but I am being summoned to go for a bike ride with the kids, so we’ll be back later. Thanks for reading the notes!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. Kyle Gibson
4. Andrew Abbott
5. Tarik Skubal
6. Justin Verlander
7. Ryan Feltner
8. Kevin Gausman
9. Tyler Anderson
10. MacKenzie Gore
11. Zack Wheeler
12. Matt Waldron
13. Tylor Megill
14. Ryne Nelson
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler (vs. MIL): 24.95 Points
2. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. DET): 22.96 Points
3. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. TOR): 20.81 Points
4. Matt Waldron (vs. LAA): 19.04 Points
5. Andrew Abbott (vs. COL): 18.7 Points
6. Beau Brieske (vs. TEX): 18.15 Points
7. Tarik Skubal (vs. TEX): 18.1 Points
8. Kyle Gibson (vs. HOU): 17.96 Points
9. Tyler Anderson (vs. SD): 12.21 Points
10. Ryne Nelson (vs. SF): 11.66 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Gibson (STL): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 13 Whiffs (71 Pitches)
3. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 11 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
5. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 11 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
6. Tarik Skubal (DET): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 10 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 9 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Spencer Howard (SF): 9 Whiffs (67 Pitches)
10. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 9 Whiffs (114 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 59.2 Strike%, 22.5 Ball%
2. Beau Brieske (DET): 52.8 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
3. Justin Verlander (HOU): 51.9 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
4. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 23.3 Ball%
5. Tarik Skubal (DET): 49.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
6. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 47.9 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
7. Kyle Gibson (STL): 46.9 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
8. Ryan Feltner (COL): 46.6 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 45.4 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
10. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 44.6 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
11. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 43.9 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%
12. Spencer Howard (SF): 40.3 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
13. Matt Waldron (SD): 40.0 Strike%, 42.1 Ball%
14. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 38.5 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
15. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 37.4 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ryne Nelson: 80 Pitches, 23 Outs, 3.48 POUT
2. Nathan Eovaldi: 71 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.18 POUT
3. Grayson Rodriguez: 86 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.3 POUT
4. Spencer Howard: 67 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.79 POUT
5. Matt Waldron: 95 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.0 POUT
6. Tyler Anderson: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
7. Kevin Gausman: 97 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.11 POUT
8. Andrew Abbott: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
9. Tarik Skubal: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
10. Bryse Wilson: 91 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.35 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryne Nelson's FC velo (20 pitches) UP 3.6mph to 91.2
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 86.9
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 92.2
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (20 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 97.3
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 78.3
Nathan Eovaldi's FS velo (27 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 90.1
Tarik Skubal's CH velo (25 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.7
Andrew Abbott's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.4
Grayson Rodriguez's FF velo (48 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.4
Bryse Wilson's FC velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 87.4
Bryse Wilson's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 78.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Beau Brieske's FF usage (52.8%) up 13.0 points
Kevin Gausman's FF usage (61.9%) up 11.2 points
Kyle Gibson's ST usage (33.3%) up 13.8 points
Kyle Gibson's FC usage (28.1%) up 10.1 points
Matt Waldron's ST usage (25.3%) up 13.1 points
Ryan Feltner's CU usage (17.8%) up 10.6 points
Tylor Megill's FC usage (13.8%) up 11.9 points
Tylor Megill's FS usage (11.5%) up 10.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -18.1%
Javier Assad Sinker: +17.2%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -16.5%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Luis Severino Sinker: +15.1%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +14.9%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.6%
Nick Pivetta 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Nick Pivetta Cutter: -14.3%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.3%
Kevin Gausman Split-Finger: -13.2%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Michael Wacha Slider: +12.7%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.2%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: +12.0%
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