MLB Daily Notes - June 6th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Nick Pivetta once again stole the show, striking out nine Braves with a 19.8% SwStr%. He’s just been amazing since last season with a 31% K% and 7.6% BB%. A rare example of a veteran turning himself into a stud after several years of being pretty meh.
I remember back in 2019 my big SP targets that year were Shane Bieber and Nick Pivetta. Lots of people were talking about those two. This was before I really did a ton of fantasy writing too so I was relying on guys like Scott White and such, and they were all on the Bieber and Pivetta trains. Bieber was awesome that year, but Pivetta ended up getting dropped after a month or so - he wasn’t good. I have the same kind of memory from years earlier when I was targeting young Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, and I don’t think either of those picks worked out as well as I expected.
Erick Fedde now has 3.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP on a 23.5 K% and 7.1% BB%. Speaking of career overhauls! I have this sister in law who is really into the Korean Pop music stuff, and honestly it’s gotten pretty bad and that music is really annoying, but maybe she’s onto something. Maybe we should all go spend a year in Korea.
The 44% Strike% is unconvincing, as is the 10.1% SwStr%. So I really don’t know where this 23% K% is coming from.
He’s getting it done with command, as his Location+ of 104.1 stands out. But yeah I can’t get past this strikeout rate. The average K% of a pitcher with a SwStr% around Fedde’s is below 20%, so I would think there will be some lost points there and that will make a difference.
The Carlos Rodon improvement continues. He is now up to a 13.1% SwStr%, and a 15.7% mark over the last month.
He has the ERA down to 2.84 with a 1.07 WHIP and a 17% K-BB%, so things have really improved in a hurry.
The velocity has been more consistent lately as well:
If I remember correctly, I have been calling Rodon a league average pitcher for several weeks now, and now I have to plant my foot firmly in my mouth on that - he’s looking much better than league average.
Spencer Schwellenbach generated 15 whiffs and a sick 56.5% Strike%, but it didn’t work:
4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 K, 2 BB
He’s probably on his way back to the minors. It does make me wonder about the relationship between strike rate and giving up earned runs. I’m sure there is one here, but I should take a minute to code up a plot.
It’s not the prettiest or most informative thing in the world, but here:
The correlation is -0.25, so it’s a pretty weak relationship but there’s something there.
It’s stronger with WHIP at -0.36:
For the people who bought my Python course, this code might be of use to you:
Anything at an individual start level will be pretty random, but it’s still pretty rare to see six earned runs with that high of a strike rate. There have been 704 starts (50 pitch minimum) with a strike rate above 55% over these last three seasons, and the average earned runs allowed in the sample is just 1.4. Here’s the whole distribution:
So, Schwellenbach probably shouldn’t have given up that many runs. I doubt it saves his job, but that was fun for me to get into nonetheless.
Jordan Montgomery has been a disaster. He gave up six more earned runs in two innings. Here’s his season line:
9 GS, 6.22 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 13.8% K%, 8.6% BB%, 42% Strike%, 36% Ball%
The sinker velo is way down from last year (93.3), and just nothing else is working for him. It’s really hard to succeed without a good fastball, and right now Montgomery does not have a good fastball. He’s never really had much of a good one, and most of the signs from last season were negative. It wasn’t much of a surprise to me that teams were hesitant to sign him and Blake Snell as both projected for much worse performance this year, but it couldn’t have gone much worse to this point for the Giants and D’Backs and those big salaries they handed to these guys (although nobody paid them anywhere near what Boras and company were hoping).
I’m certainly holding Snell even through this IL stint and the inevitable few more bad starts, but with Montgomery I really don’t think the upside warrants a hold-at-all-causes mentality here. I’m not saying definitely cut him, but you’re much less likely to regret cutting him than another guy like Snell with more upside.
Chris Paddack’s velo was way up:
But the Yankees did not care:
4 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 7 K, 2 BB
He now has a 5.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but still a pretty decent 16.4% K-BB%. The problem has been homers (1.52 HR/9) and BABIP (.337). He’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s probably not good enough for any fantasy leagues.
Joey Estes was awesome
6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 K, 0 BB, 12.8% SwStr%, 55.1% Strike%
He was a recommended two-start streamer this week from me, so I’m feeling pretty good about that. The kid is 22 and I like what he’s done so far:
You know I like a low ball rate with a high SwStr%. Estes doesn’t have a high SwStr% at 12.7%, but it’s a half-point above the league average so it’s not bad by any means. The fastball is… not fast… so you don’t love to see that and that’s probably why he hasn’t gotten much hype, but so far on 234 offerings it has earned a strike 54% of the time so that’s been elite. His pitch modeling stuff:
Stuff+: 101.7
Location+: 108.0
Pitching+: 107.0
That 107 Pitching+ puts him 10th in the entire league for SPs with at least five starts. That’s right, tenth best! Incredible. A lot of that boat is anchored on the Location+, which is much more variable than Stuff+ and other things, but it’s still a somewhat sticky stat, so Estes is looking LEGIT. We might have found our new guy!
Estes in Spanish means “these”, so we can call this guy Joey These, which is a dumb nickname but that’s what we’re all about here.
In case you were wondering about the rest of the Pitching+ Leaders:
The presence of Nick Martinez throws into question this metric a bit, since we know Martinez isn’t very good and that means that it’s possible for a bad pitcher to hack his way into a good Pitching+ number, but the rest of those names are really strong so I’d say it’s a very good sign, and I think Estes should be added, he gets the Padres next.
Jose Urena continues to not be trash, which is really annoying. What we want from people is for them to be genuine, consistent, and dependable. Urena isn’t doing that for us this year with the 3.44 ERA and 6.2 innings of one-run ball last night.
Under the hood things aren’t very good with a 9% K-BB% and this:
An 11% SwStr% and 42% Strike% and 39% Ball% are all quite bad, but they are a solid step away from being like the worst pitcher in the league, and the 50% GB% raises the floor a little bit. He’s still no good, and I will continue to stack against him in DFS, and hopefully the field stops doing so given these few good starts.
I wanted to review most of the pitchers from last night but man that’s a challenge. I know that Nick Pollack at pitcher list does that and that’s really impressive, it must take him like two hours every morning. I just can’t make it happen.
Cade Povich gets the call-up for a start today, he was one of those top-five minor league SP stashes. In AAA this year:
32.5% K%, 9.1% BB%, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Here’s the pitch mix data from the Minor League Statcast dashboard:
The key point about Povich is the velocity. He averages 92 on the fastball, not a great sign when you’re moving up to face the best hitters in the world. But he is left-handed and he’s had nothing but success in the minors, so there’s probably a good amount of deception in there along with strong command.
I wouldn’t drop anybody you like for him, but in a 12-teamer where you’re streaming guys every week he’s worth a speculative look.
Hitter Review
I watched Shohei Ohtani hit a 100mph fastball over the centerfield fence in PNC Park, and that was pretty amazing. I looked up how often a pitch thrown that hard gets hit for a homer, and it’s really rare.
Since 2022, there have been 4,591 100+ mph pitches thrown in the zone, and only 26 of them have been hit for homers. That’s 0.5%. Here are the five homers hit on 100+ mph this season:
Looking at all pitches, 1.4% of the pitches in the zone get hit for homers.
League-wide since 2022, against 100+ mph heat, hitters have hit .198/.269/.273 with a .247 wOBA and a 71% Contact% against those pitches. It’s very hard to hit. Throwing hard is a very good thing for a pitcher.
Connor Norby has not been mentioned here yet so let’s take a look. He’s yet another one of these Orioles prospect call-ups:
.286/.374/.510, 31% K%, 11% BB%, 9 HR
Not all that impressive marks, and that strikeout rate would seem to make it impossible for him to adjust well to Major League pitching. I’d leave him alone in redraft leagues.
Alright I am satisfied, this was a good daily notes even though I did have more to say… I really could write these all morning. In fact, my ideal vacation would probably be spending like 2-3 hours on this every morning. Maybe someday, maybe someday…
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta
2. Spencer Schwellenbach
3. Erick Fedde
4. Carlos Rodon
5. Joey Estes
6. Dylan Cease
7. Aaron Nola
8. Chris Paddack
9. Ronel Blanco
10. Braxton Garrett
11. Paul Skenes
12. Logan Gilbert
13. Jose Urena
14. Zach Eflin
15. Jameson Taillon
16. Graham Ashcraft
17. Luis Severino
18. Jordan Montgomery
19. Jordan Hicks
20. Albert Suarez
21. Miles Mikolas
22. Patrick Corbin
23. Jose Berrios
24. Aaron Ashby
25. Dakota Hudson
26. Jose Soriano
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (vs. ATL): 35.95 Points
2. Carlos Rodon (vs. MIN): 29.7 Points
3. Aaron Nola (vs. MIL): 28.55 Points
4. Jose Urena (vs. DET): 27.81 Points
5. Joey Estes (vs. SEA): 27.64 Points
6. Luis Severino (vs. WSH): 23.8 Points
7. Paul Skenes (vs. LAD): 21.05 Points
8. Logan Gilbert (vs. OAK): 20.75 Points
9. Miles Mikolas (vs. HOU): 16.5 Points
10. Dylan Cease (vs. LAA): 16.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 18 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 18 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
3. Dylan Cease (SD): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
4. Erick Fedde (CWS): 17 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
5. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 15 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
6. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Paul Skenes (PIT): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
9. Chris Paddack (MIN): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Jose Urena (TEX): 11 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 56.5 Strike%, 23.5 Ball%
2. Joey Estes (OAK): 55.1 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%
3. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 54.9 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 53.8 Strike%, 26.9 Ball%
5. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 53.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
6. Chris Paddack (MIN): 50.6 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
7. Paul Skenes (PIT): 50.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
8. Erick Fedde (CWS): 49.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
9. Logan Allen (ARI): 49.3 Strike%, 41.3 Ball%
10. Dylan Cease (SD): 49.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
11. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 48.0 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
12. Zach Eflin (TB): 47.3 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
13. Jordan Hicks (SF): 45.7 Strike%, 44.6 Ball%
14. Jose Urena (TEX): 44.3 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
15. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 43.8 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Miles Mikolas: 62 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.44 POUT
2. Luis Severino: 92 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.0 POUT
3. Joey Estes: 78 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.11 POUT
4. Logan Gilbert: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
5. Nick Pivetta: 91 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.33 POUT
6. Zach Eflin: 55 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.58 POUT
7. Aaron Nola: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
8. Patrick Corbin: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT
9. Jose Urena: 97 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.85 POUT
10. Jose Soriano: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Rodon's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.0
Jordan Hicks's FS velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.1
Chris Paddack's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 84.6
Chris Paddack's FF velo (34 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 95.0
Joey Wentz's FC velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.5
Dakota Hudson's SI velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.5
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 96.2
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.1
Brandon Hughes's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 79.9
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -4.2mph to 76.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Ashby's SL usage (24.2%) up 10.2 points
Brandon Hughes's FF usage (54.0%) up 15.7 points
Erick Fedde's FC usage (44.1%) up 17.6 points
Jameson Taillon's ST usage (32.0%) up 16.2 points
Joey Wentz's FF usage (61.5%) up 20.5 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (60.0%) up 25.9 points
Logan Allen's FS usage (25.3%) up 22.3 points
Logan Gilbert's FC usage (23.3%) up 18.5 points
Logan Gilbert's SI usage (11.1%) up 10.3 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (44.6%) up 34.3 points
Mason Englert's SI usage (13.2%) up 12.0 points
Miles Mikolas's SI usage (45.2%) up 20.3 points
Paul Skenes's FF usage (51.6%) up 10.2 points
Zach Eflin's FF usage (21.8%) up 14.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Severino Sinker: +24.3%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -19.2%
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -18.1%
Javier Assad Sinker: +17.2%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -16.5%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +14.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Patrick Sandoval Sweeper: +13.5%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.3%
Kevin Gausman Split-Finger: -13.2%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Michael Wacha Slider: +12.7%
Ronel Blanco Changeup: -12.5%
Miles Mikolas Sinker: +12.3%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.2%
Jose Urena Sinker: +12.2%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.1%
Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 44.5% CSW%
Ray Kerr - 67 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Ben Brown - 69 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Luis Gil - 95 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 96 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 100 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 75 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Gil - 95 TBF, 38.9% K%
Ben Brown - 69 TBF, 36.2% K%
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Paul Skenes - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 34.9% K%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 33.8% K%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 33.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Paul Skenes - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 95 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Ben Brown - 69 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Matt Waldron - 93 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 95 TBF, 68.1% GB%
Brayan Bello - 99 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Max Fried - 109 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Jose Soriano - 102 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Griffin Canning - 73 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Erick Fedde - 99 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 92 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.7 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 33.8 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 35.6 K%, 4.6 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Max Fried - 109 TBF, 27.5 K%, 4.6 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Paul Skenes - 87 TBF, 35.6 K%, 4.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 33.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 63.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 75 TBF, 30.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Reid Detmers: 9.53 ERA, 4.38 SIERA
Ross Stripling: 9.97 ERA, 5.24 SIERA
Martin Perez: 8.31 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Blake Snell: 7.5 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Nick Nastrini: 10.95 ERA, 7.68 SIERA
Cristian Javier: 8.74 ERA, 5.73 SIERA
Kenta Maeda: 9.25 ERA, 6.24 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 7.66 ERA, 4.82 SIERA
Braxton Garrett: 5.81 ERA, 3.15 SIERA
Sonny Gray: 5.4 ERA, 2.84 SIERA
Luckiest
Bailey Falter: 1.67 ERA, 5.37 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 1.89 ERA, 5.42 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 1.66 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 1.95 ERA, 4.64 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.22 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.3 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Jon Gray: 1.56 ERA, 4.1 SIERA
Luis Gil: 0.7 ERA, 3.16 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.9 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 1.46 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jack Flaherty - +4.1% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +4.6% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Zac Gallen - +5.4% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Brad Keller - +2.3% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Cave (COL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jonah Heim (TEX) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Torrens (NYM) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Edmundo Sosa, Yesterday: 111.9 Previous High: 111.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 116.3mph - field_out
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 115.5mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.6mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.3mph - nan
Matt Olson (ATL) - 112.2mph - nan
Edmundo Sosa (PHI) - 111.9mph - field_out
J.D. Davis (OAK) - 111.8mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 110.5mph - single
Brendan Rodgers (COL) - 110.1mph - field_out
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 110.0mph - single
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