MLB Daily Notes - June 7th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Let’s start by clearing out the request box.
Andres Gimenez
Drew asked about Gimenez with no further comment. He’s obviously been seriously frustrating this year with just three homers and seven steals.
The strikeout rate is still good (15.7%), the walks are still low (4%), but he’s hitting a ton of weak ground balls. His xwOBA is just .251 and the GB% is up to 51%.
I think I am going to dedicate a full analysis post soon on how important exit velocity is, but Gimenez is a good case study for that. The 81.9 average exit velocity is awful and it’s really tough to be successful with that. I think Gimenez will probably be better as we move forward, but last year was definitely an over-performance as this guy has never shown any real bat speed. You hope he can just end up on first base more often from here on to get more steals. A decent batting average and a good steals total is about the best we can hope for from him, I think it’s probably fine to drop the guy if you’re not desperate for steals.
Can you discuss interpreting the pitch mix changes info in the automated reports? Sorry if I missed this in a prior discussion. Also wondering if there was any way you could add pitch count to the minor league pitching performances along side innings pitched. Thank you I’m loving the content!!!
The first pitch mix change thing just looks at the pitch mix for each pitcher last night and compares it to their season averages. So if a guy threw his 4-seamer 60% of the time last night and prior to that he had thrown is 40% of the time, that’s a +20% and it will show up in the report.
The second one does the exact same thing but looks at the last three starts rather than just the last one start for pitchers who pitched yesterday.
As for adding the pitch counts to the minor league top pitcher performances, it is done:
Michael asked about Rowdy Tellez. And yeah, it feels like he hasn’t done much this year. The barrel rate is down to 10.6% and the K% is up to 25.7%. He hasn’t homered since May 22nd. I think this is just who the guy is, a homers-only kind of hitter that is susceptible to long streaks of hurting your fantasy team when the homers aren’t coming. I don’t really believe that the barrel rate will stay under 11%, he went for 12% in 2021 and 13% last year, so I think he’ll settle there. The strikeout rate should hang around 23-26%, and that’s perfectly fine. He’s not a super great fantasy hitter, but the homers will come - I’m pretty sure, you can just hold on and keep starting him unless there are weeks with a ton of lefties on the schedule.
Michael also asked about Michael King, but I’m going to punt on that to save time. The one thing I don’t have much of here is bullpen usage stuff. You could use the pitch game log tab on the MLB & MiLB stats dashboard to see that he’s mostly being used as a multi-inning reliever.
Kevin had a request:
Fastball Velocity. Compare last 3 weeks/starts vs prior 3 weeks/starts to see who might running out of arm strength per say or who is gaining arm strength
This is a good idea, and I will develop it. I actually was planning on including this in the new “pitcher trends” automated post that will come out today or tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that.
I got more good feedback than bad on the new format of the daily notes where I add my commentary as we go rather than all at the beginning. But we can clean it up to make it look a little bit more reader-friendly, so we’ll try that today. I’m going to clump more things together and do the analysis at the top rather than below, so hopefully things will be more clearly delineated.
Please keep your feedback coming, I don’t want to change this to something that the majority of people don’t prefer.
Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Kevin Gausman just went nuts with 13 strikeouts and no walks against the Astros. He put up a 31.7% SwStr% on his splitter, which is hilarious.
It was the second time this year that he threw more splitters than fastballs. He’s thrown it above 25% of the time in every start, so it’s not a pitch he ever completely loses like some other guys with their splitters. I don’t have a ton to say about Gausman, he’s been a somewhat overlooked ace in drafts for the last couple of years and you’re profiting big time by drafting him even with those few rough starts earlier in the year.
James Paxton did it ONCE AGAIN. 25 whiffs on 106 pitches, that’s a 23.6% SwStr%. He pushed his four-seamer usage to a season-high, and for the year he’s throwing that pitch 61% of the time now.
I don’t really believe 61% fastball usage is something that can work as well as it has for Paxton, and with the high FB% and the long history of injury problems he definitely is smelling like a sell-high to me, but man the numbers are impressive right now and I absolutely would not have predicted this. Good for him!
It was a really nice bounce-back start for Freddy Peralta with nine strikeouts and no walks. He hadn’t had a high SwStr% start since early May, but he did it last night:
I’m not sure what was going on in May there, and I can’t say that’s behind him now. We can’t forget that this guy has never been super consistent in his career, so there may be some downs still coming, but the upside is immense.
Mitch Keller had his worst start of the year by like 19 miles, getting just three whiffs and posting a 38% Strike%. There were some concerns we kept talking about here with him and his lower SwStr%, but this would seem to be attributable to just him not having it last night. Weird stuff, I’d still expect him to have a nice bounce-back start next time out, it should take us more than one start to panic on him.
That’s all I have to say here, but I remind you all about the “Yesterdays SP Data” Google Sheet that gets populated every morning available to paid subscribers.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kevin Gausman (vs. HOU): 41.35 Points
2. Zach Eflin (vs. MIN): 34.61 Points
3. Taijuan Walker (vs. DET): 32.75 Points
4. Jesus Luzardo (vs. KC): 32.55 Points
5. Lucas Giolito (vs. NYY): 29.7 Points
6. James Paxton (vs. CLE): 28.95 Points
7. Logan Gilbert (vs. SD): 26.75 Points
8. Joe Musgrove (vs. SEA): 22.25 Points
9. Bryce Elder (vs. NYM): 21.9 Points
10. Freddy Peralta (vs. BAL): 21.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. James Paxton (BOS): 25 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 20 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 17 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
4. Joe Musgrove (SD): 16 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 15 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
6. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Bryce Elder (ATL): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
10. Taijuan Walker (PHI): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Musgrove (SD): 55.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 55.8 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
3. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 53.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 52.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
5. Jake Irvin (WSH): 51.8 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
6. Zach Eflin (TB): 51.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
7. James Paxton (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Bryce Elder (ATL): 49.5 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
9. Chase De Jong (PIT): 49.1 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
10. Peter Lambert (COL): 49.1 Strike%, 45.5 Ball%
11. Sean Manaea (SF): 48.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
12. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 47.0 Strike%, 42.0 Ball%
13. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 46.9 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
14. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 45.7 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
15. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 45.7 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. James Paxton - 7.0 IP - 171.0 JA Points
2. Jesus Luzardo - 7.0 IP - 168.0 JA Points
3. Freddy Peralta - 5.0 IP - 161.5 JA Points
4. Joe Musgrove - 5.0 IP - 138.5 JA Points
5. Logan Gilbert - 7.0 IP - 131.5 JA Points
6. Zach Eflin - 6.67 IP - 119.0 JA Points
7. Clarke Schmidt - 6.0 IP - 117.0 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito - 6.0 IP - 117.0 JA Points
9. Kevin Gausman - 7.0 IP - 115.5 JA Points
10. Kyle Gibson - 5.0 IP - 110.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 12.0 GS - 121.24 JA Points
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
3. Alex Wood (SF) - 7.0 GS - 111.4 JA Points
4. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 9.0 GS - 109.31 JA Points
5. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 13.0 GS - 106.94 JA Points
7. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 12.0 GS - 106.88 JA Points
8. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 106.5 JA Points
9. Edward Cabrera (MIA) - 12.0 GS - 106.21 JA Points
10. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 12.0 GS - 105.85 JA Points
Velo / Pitch Mix Changes
We notice here that Taijuan Walker really got it together last night. He went for season-highs in whiffs and strikeouts, and the extra velocity certainly helped.
Matthew Liberatore lost some velocity yesterday, and that’s not good since a lot of the breakout hopes people had for him were driven by his velo being up from last year. He’s been awful in the Majors with a 15.5% K% and an 11.3% BB%. You can forgive a bad start against the Rangers, but the underlying stuff isn’t there - I think he’s a cut in redraft leagues right now, and another lesson to be learned about rookies!
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Chad Kuhl's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 87.2
Taijuan Walker's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 89.4
Lucas Giolito's SL velo (34 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.8
Sean Manaea's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.7
Taijuan Walker's FF velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.7
Taijuan Walker's FS velo (42 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.8
Taijuan Walker's SI velo (21 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.0
Chad Kuhl's SI velo (24 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.8
Tyler Anderson's CH velo (31 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 80.9
Tony Gonsolin's FS velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 81.7
Matthew Liberatore's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 75.3
Matthew Liberatore's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 93.6
Sean Manaea's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -4.6mph to 79.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chad Kuhl's SI usage (44.4%) up 13.2 points
Chase De Jong's FF usage (49.1%) up 14.8 points
Dinelson Lamet's SI usage (48.8%) up 39.5 points
Freddy Peralta's FF usage (67.3%) up 15.5 points
Hunter Brown's SL usage (42.7%) up 14.2 points
Kevin Gausman's SL usage (19.8%) up 11.7 points
Kyle Gibson's SI usage (39.6%) up 15.1 points
Logan Gilbert's SL usage (35.1%) up 11.2 points
Matthew Liberatore's SI usage (30.6%) up 14.4 points
Peter Lambert's SL usage (21.8%) up 11.5 points
Sean Manaea's FF usage (68.7%) up 20.4 points
Zack Greinke's SL usage (32.5%) up 12.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Kyle Freeland Sinker: -20.9%
Brayan Bello Sinker: -19.2%
Brayan Bello 4-Seam Fastball: +17.9%
Adrian Houser Sinker: +17.6%
Noah Syndergaard Curveball: +16.8%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +15.7%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +15.4%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -15.0%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -14.6%
Matt Strahm Slider: +14.3%
Colin Rea Curveball: +14.0%
Jordan Montgomery Changeup: +14.0%
Mike Clevinger Cutter: +13.8%
J.P. France Changeup: +13.3%
Matt Strahm Cutter: -12.0%
Recent Pitching Leaders
Braxton Garrett still popping up a lot over the last three weeks leaderboards. I’d stick with him for the short term.
Tanner Houck has been throwing a ton of strikes and he shows up a couple of times here, but he’s given up eight earned runs in his last two and his K% for the year is pretty mediocre. He rarely throws six innings, so he’s borderline - but there are things to like!
It’s pretty wild to see Tyler Wells’ K-BB%. For the year he has a 26.6% K% and a 5.3% BB%. The SwStr% is up this year, and you have to love a walk rate under 6%. He should obviously be rostered, and there are still some leagues out there where he’s not.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 74 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 83 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 78 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 65 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 95 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Colin Rea - 70 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 69 TBF, 42.0% K%
Michael Kopech - 95 TBF, 40.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Tyler Wells - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Kodai Senga - 88 TBF, 34.1% K%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 107 TBF, 33.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Michael Kopech - 95 TBF, 35.8% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 32.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 69 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Tyler Wells - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 107 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 106 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Logan Webb - 74 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Alex Wood - 67 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Framber Valdez - 81 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 78 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Josh Fleming - 72 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Zach Eflin - 98 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Adrian Houser - 93 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 89 TBF, 56.1% GB%
I’m actually just going to cut you free riders off here. I’m moving toward putting a ton of work into this Substack with several different types of articles coming out, so I think it’s time you just start paying!