MLB Daily Notes - June 7th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Yusei Kikuchi has been one of the most under-appreciated SPs in the league the last two years. He has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and an 18.9% K-BB% over his last 45 starts since 2023. That’s actually not all that great, but given the volume and the strikeouts (252) you’ll certainly take that in real life and in fantasy. He was good last night with six innings, four hits, and one run.
Tanner Bibee is once again near the top of the lists with his 16 whiffs, 17% SwStr%, and seven strikeouts. He was inefficient however and lasted just five innings, but Bibee has pitched like a top-25 pitcher over the last several weeks. Keeping in the spirit of looking at the last two seasons, he has a 26% K% and 6.5% BB% since debuting last year with a strong 14.1% SwStr% and 34.8% Ball%. He’s a very good pitcher with lots of room for growth, although some of that ceiling is capped by the lack of a dominant fastball.
Eight punch-daddies for Hunter Greene, who still sits with a pretty disappointing 26% K% (for his standards), but the 0.81 HR/9 offsets that. I really did expect like a 29% K% and a 1.4 HR/9. The walk rate is a tick higher than we want as well, but the guy’s arm is electric so he can get away with a lot and he’s been pretty solid for fantasy this year (#26 on my player rater).
JP Sears struck out eight Mariners, but his season has been all over the place and he still sits with a sub-11% K-BB%, not good.
Pablo Lopez got crushed by the Yankees for seven earned runs, he’s been inconsistent this year and the ERA is now up to 5.45. The 3.30 SIERA shows that there are smoother paths ahead and you should be trying to buy low on Pablo (that rhymes).
Six shutout innings for Bryan Woo, but the SwStr% is still low at 11.4%. He’s throwing a ton of strikes and his ERA is at 1.08, but the 3.65 SIERA is a cause for some concern.
Rude welcome that the Blue Jays gave Cade Povich, putting six earned runs on him to start his career. He walked four and put up just a 39% Strike% and 8% SwStr%. He was not able to throw strikes, and that is not a good thing to do in the Major Leagues.
The wheels are coming off on the Javier Assad train. First ten starts = 1.70 ERA. Last three starts = 6.19 ERA. The 13.8% K-BB% on the season has always been a reason to fade him or leave him on waivers, it’s just a good reminder that it’s extremely difficult and unlikely to have consistent ERA success without a good K-BB%.
Walker Buehler has not been his old self this year. The K% is 22%, the BB% is 6.5%. That’s not awful, but this guy was once a premium fantasy pitcher. An 8.1% SwStr% is really concerning and the Pirates knocked him around a bit yesterday, although most of the damage came in one inning. He averaged 98mph on his fastball in his rookie year, and now he’s down to 95.
Anthony Santander is a magic formula qualifier.
Underrated fantasy bat.
Jesse Winker has six steals in his last 13 games and now has 11 on the year with a .761 OPS.
And that’s the end of it. And given that I’m on vacation here, I’m not going to be able to get waiver wire targets out today. That’s a sacrifice I have to make.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Yusei Kikuchi
2. Tanner Bibee
3. JP Sears
4. Bryan Woo
5. Hunter Greene
6. Tanner Houck
7. Pablo Lopez
8. Sonny Gray
9. Reynaldo Lopez
10. Randy Vasquez
11. Bailey Falter
12. Cal Quantrill
13. Cade Povich
14. Marcus Stroman
15. Mitchell Parker
16. Javier Assad
17. Walker Buehler
18. Brady Singer
19. Jake Woodford
20. Slade Cecconi
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tanner Houck (vs. CWS): 31.95 Points
2. Bryan Woo (vs. OAK): 28.3 Points
3. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. BAL): 24.5 Points
4. Hunter Greene (vs. CHC): 22.81 Points
5. JP Sears (vs. SEA): 22.5 Points
6. Reynaldo Lopez (vs. WSH): 19.3 Points
7. Tanner Bibee (vs. KC): 17.05 Points
8. Mitchell Parker (vs. ATL): 13.95 Points
9. Michael Grove (vs. PIT): 13.9 Points
10. Cal Quantrill (vs. STL): 13.05 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 22 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Hunter Greene (CIN): 17 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
3. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 16 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. JP Sears (OAK): 15 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
5. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Sonny Gray (STL): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
7. Randy Vasquez (SD): 10 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
8. Tanner Houck (BOS): 9 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 9 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Cal Quantrill (COL): 8 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tanner Houck (BOS): 55.9 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
2. Bryan Woo (SEA): 52.9 Strike%, 29.4 Ball%
3. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 51.2 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
4. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 50.6 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
5. Bailey Falter (PIT): 50.0 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
6. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 50.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
7. Sonny Gray (STL): 48.3 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
8. Hunter Greene (CIN): 47.7 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
9. JP Sears (OAK): 47.5 Strike%, 40.6 Ball%
10. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 46.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
11. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 43.8 Strike%, 43.8 Ball%
12. Cal Quantrill (COL): 43.8 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
13. Randy Vasquez (SD): 42.4 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
14. Walker Buehler (LAD): 41.0 Strike%, 39.7 Ball%
15. Javier Assad (CHC): 40.2 Strike%, 41.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Mitchell Parker: 71 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.38 POUT
2. Tanner Houck: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
3. Randy Vasquez: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
4. Bryan Woo: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
5. Reynaldo Lopez: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
6. Yusei Kikuchi: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
7. Javier Assad: 92 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.41 POUT
8. Hunter Greene: 111 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.55 POUT
9. Marcus Stroman: 78 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.57 POUT
10. JP Sears: 101 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.61 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Randy Vasquez's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.8
Pablo Lopez's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.8
Brady Singer's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 81.9
JP Sears's ST velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 78.4
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (50 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 95.1
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 81.8
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 83.0
JP Sears's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 79.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brady Singer's FF usage (25.7%) up 21.9 points
Bryan Woo's FF usage (67.1%) up 12.5 points
Hunter Greene's FS usage (15.3%) up 12.4 points
JP Sears's CH usage (28.7%) up 11.9 points
Jake Woodford's FC usage (28.7%) up 22.8 points
Javier Assad's CU usage (17.4%) up 10.4 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (26.9%) up 14.1 points
Mitchell Parker's SL usage (21.1%) up 13.6 points
Pablo Lopez's ST usage (33.3%) up 11.7 points
Reynaldo Lopez's CU usage (16.3%) up 10.8 points
Tanner Bibee's SL usage (47.9%) up 19.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Severino Sinker: +24.3%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -19.2%
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -18.1%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -16.5%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +14.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Marcus Stroman Cutter: +14.0%
Patrick Sandoval Sweeper: +13.5%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -13.3%
Kevin Gausman Split-Finger: -13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Michael Wacha Slider: +12.7%
Ronel Blanco Changeup: -12.5%
Miles Mikolas Sinker: +12.3%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.2%
Jose Urena Sinker: +12.2%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.1%
Shota Imanaga Split-Finger: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 44.5% CSW%
Ray Kerr - 67 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Ben Brown - 69 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Luis Gil - 95 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 96 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 100 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Gil - 95 TBF, 38.9% K%
Ben Brown - 69 TBF, 36.2% K%
Paul Skenes - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 34.9% K%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 33.8% K%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 33.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Paul Skenes - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 95 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 83 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Ben Brown - 69 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Matt Waldron - 93 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 95 TBF, 68.1% GB%
Brayan Bello - 99 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Max Fried - 109 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Jose Soriano - 102 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Griffin Canning - 73 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.7 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 33.8 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 87 TBF, 35.6 K%, 4.6 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Max Fried - 109 TBF, 27.5 K%, 4.6 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Paul Skenes - 87 TBF, 35.6 K%, 4.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 77 TBF, 33.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 63.0% GB%
Tanner Houck - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 3.0 BB%, 50.7% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 75 TBF, 30.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Reid Detmers: 9.53 ERA, 4.39 SIERA
Martin Perez: 8.31 ERA, 4.42 SIERA
Blake Snell: 7.5 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 6.75 ERA, 3.3 SIERA
Nick Nastrini: 10.95 ERA, 7.69 SIERA
Cristian Javier: 8.74 ERA, 5.74 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 7.66 ERA, 4.83 SIERA
Ross Stripling: 7.9 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Sonny Gray: 5.46 ERA, 2.85 SIERA
Braxton Garrett: 5.81 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
Luckiest
Tyler Anderson: 1.89 ERA, 5.5 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.07 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 1.66 ERA, 4.35 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.22 ERA, 4.9 SIERA
Luis Gil: 0.56 ERA, 3.17 SIERA
Jon Gray: 1.56 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Bailey Falter: 2.9 ERA, 5.38 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 1.46 ERA, 3.79 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.9 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
Clarke Schmidt: 1.09 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tanner Houck - +2.2% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +4.1% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Max Fried - +5.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +4.6% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +2.2% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Matt Waldron - +2.2% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Jake Irvin - +2.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Hunter Brown - +3.7% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Zac Gallen - +5.4% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Brad Keller - +2.3% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Tyler Alexander - +3.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Miguel Amaya, Yesterday: 111.2 Previous High: 110.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 117.7mph - home_run
Rowdy Tellez (PIT) - 115.5mph - single
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 114.7mph - home_run
Jarren Duran (BOS) - 112.2mph - home_run
Miguel Amaya (CHC) - 111.2mph - field_out
JJ Bleday (OAK) - 110.5mph - nan
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 110.4mph - force_out
Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 109.7mph - home_run
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 109.5mph - single
George Springer (TOR) - 109.4mph - nan
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Colton Cowser - 68 PA, 0.257 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, 0.122 Diff
Alec Bohm - 76 PA, 0.249 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.12 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 67 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.114 Diff
Giancarlo Stanton - 72 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.45 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Ketel Marte - 83 PA, 0.339 wOBA, 0.421 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Christopher Morel - 73 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.42 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Jonny DeLuca - 56 PA, 0.182 wOBA, 0.255 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Leody Taveras - 65 PA, 0.244 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Oneil Cruz - 56 PA, 0.288 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Mitch Garver - 57 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Bottom 10
Daulton Varsho - 72 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.206 xwOBA, -0.137 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 73 PA, 0.512 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff
Josh Smith - 71 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 87 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Masyn Winn - 64 PA, 0.436 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Elias Diaz - 56 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
David Hamilton - 61 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 72 PA, 0.323 wOBA, 0.243 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Matt Vierling - 67 PA, 0.424 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, -0.068 Diff
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 0.58 wOBA, 0.513 xwOBA, -0.067 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Oneil Cruz - 56 PA, 28 BIP, 10 Brls, 35.7 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 42 BIP, 15 Brls, 35.7 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 66 PA, 37 BIP, 12 Brls, 32.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 84 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Corey Seager - 64 PA, 46 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 72 PA, 47 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 84 PA, 64 BIP, 15 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 75 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 55 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.8 Brl%
Heliot Ramos - 77 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 84 PA, 0.537 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 0.513 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 84 PA, 0.501 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 64 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
David Fry - 54 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 83 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Gunnar Henderson - 92 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Giancarlo Stanton - 72 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 66 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
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