MLB Daily Notes - June 9th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Some other #news is that I am done writing at RotoBaller. I wanted to focus more on the SubStack and not have as many deadlines to meet, among some other things, so I am all here all the time now, baby! I’m a sucker for the DFS game, and I love writing me some of those articles - so likely, you’ll get a lot more in-depth DFS analysis in the daily game previews post. That’ll probably start next week.
I’m pressed for time again, but I am going to have literally zero time tomorrow or Sunday to do anything, so let’s push out some extra ‘tent here (that’s how I will be saying “content” from now on):
Pitching - Yesterday
Kershaw just sitting the Reds down is a good example of an important lesson in baseball. We need lots of data to believe in something. Kershaw has given us a lot of data that shows that he is amazing. The young, exciting Reds lineup has given us very little data to believe that they are good. In fairness, they haven’t given us Major League data to show they’re definitely bad - but the data was on the side of Kershaw yesterday, and that’s how it went down.
The guy is still elite with a 15.8% SwStr% and a 52% Strike% on the year. He’s still throwing that slider a ton, and the four-seamer hasn’t been all that great. For a young player, I’d say this was a red flag - we don’t really love starting pitchers overly reliant on a breaking ball without a strong fastball backing it up - but Kershaw is a different story.
Spencer Strider had a(nother) bad start in the box score. He gave up eight runs to the Mets and now has a 5.08 ERA over his last 6 starts. It’s still a 38% K%, which means he’ll be just fine, but the walks are up lately (9.9%) and he’s given up a 10% Brl%. I’m not even going to write anything else, I fail to see how a pitcher with a strikeout rate above 35% and a walk rate under 12% can be anything but very good, so don’t worry there.
It’s definitely time to ditch Lance Lynn, his K-BB% is down to 15.5% and he just keeps getting base-hit to death. A 24.3% K% and 8.8% BB% just isn’t going to work, and he has brutal matchups ahead.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Clayton Kershaw (vs. CIN): 33.55 Points
2. Zack Wheeler (vs. DET): 31.29 Points
3. Reid Detmers (vs. CHC): 26.56 Points
4. Colin Rea (vs. BAL): 24.85 Points
5. Kyle Bradish (vs. MIL): 21.05 Points
6. Randy Vasquez (vs. CWS): 20.96 Points
7. Yonny Chirinos (vs. MIN): 19.76 Points
8. Bailey Ober (vs. TB): 16.99 Points
9. Chase Anderson (vs. SF): 15.79 Points
10. Aaron Civale (vs. BOS): 15.16 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 17 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 16 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
4. Bailey Ober (MIN): 15 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
5. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Colin Rea (MIL): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
7. Alex Cobb (SF): 13 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
8. Chase Anderson (COL): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Reid Detmers (LAA): 12 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
10. Luis Severino (NYY): 11 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 58.6 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
2. Colin Rea (MIL): 58.3 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 54.6 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%
4. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 53.1 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
5. Alex Cobb (SF): 53.0 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
6. Reese Olson (DET): 49.3 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 49.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
8. Reid Detmers (LAA): 47.5 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
9. Chase Anderson (COL): 46.7 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
10. Aaron Civale (CLE): 46.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
11. Bailey Ober (MIN): 45.5 Strike%, 40.9 Ball%
12. Luis Severino (NYY): 45.3 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
13. Jose Berrios (TOR): 44.9 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
14. Lance Lynn (CWS): 44.9 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
15. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 44.6 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler - 7.33 IP - 157.5 JA Points
2. Clayton Kershaw - 7.0 IP - 140.0 JA Points
3. Kyle Bradish - 5.0 IP - 132.0 JA Points
4. Chase Anderson - 5.33 IP - 111.5 JA Points
5. Colin Rea - 5.0 IP - 109.5 JA Points
6. Bailey Ober - 5.33 IP - 106.5 JA Points
7. Reese Olson - 5.0 IP - 106.0 JA Points
8. Spencer Strider - 4.0 IP - 106.0 JA Points
9. Drew Smyly - 6.0 IP - 104.5 JA Points
10. Mike Clevinger - 5.67 IP - 101.0 JA Points
Finally, deGrom does not qualify for the JA scores, so Strider takes over at #1. Since he is so far ahead of the rest of the field in strikeouts and whiffs, I don’t see how he’ll be leaving the top of the list any time soon. Lodolo should be gone as well in the next few days, which makes the rest of the top 10 really freaking weird. Wood, Bello, Peterson… I should probably fix this or just get rid of it. Sorry, I do crap work sometimes.
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13.0 GS - 121.86 JA Points
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
3. Alex Wood (SF) - 7.0 GS - 111.4 JA Points
4. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 9.0 GS - 109.31 JA Points
5. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 13.0 GS - 106.94 JA Points
7. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 12.0 GS - 106.88 JA Points
8. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 106.5 JA Points
9. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 12.0 GS - 105.85 JA Points
10. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 13.0 GS - 105.76 JA Points
Pitcher/Pitch Changes
Luis Severino’s velocity is still down and the whiffs haven’t been there. He’s looked pretty mediocre since his first start and the velocity has not returned to those heights. I’d probably consider benching him at this point until we see something change, it wouldn’t be surprising him to see him end up on the IL again soon, either.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jose Berrios's CH velo (18 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.8
Randy Vasquez's ST velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.6
Luis Severino's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.6
Reese Olson's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.6
Luis Severino's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 82.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's CU usage (32.3%) up 10.9 points
Drew Smyly's CU usage (63.1%) up 13.7 points
Framber Valdez's SI usage (60.2%) up 10.7 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (38.2%) up 10.6 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (28.6%) up 14.4 points
Lance Lynn's FC usage (38.8%) up 13.1 points
Randy Vasquez's FF usage (36.0%) up 20.5 points
Randy Vasquez's ST usage (19.8%) up 13.8 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (20.0%) up 11.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jameson Taillon Cutter: -20.9%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: -20.9%
Brayan Bello Sinker: -19.2%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Brayan Bello 4-Seam Fastball: +17.9%
Adrian Houser Sinker: +17.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +15.7%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +15.4%
Noah Syndergaard Curveball: +14.7%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -14.6%
Matt Strahm Slider: +14.3%
Jordan Montgomery Changeup: +14.0%
Connor Seabold Slider: -14.0%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
J.P. France Changeup: +13.3%
Jose Berrios 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Logan Webb Changeup: +12.1%
Matt Strahm Cutter: -12.0%
We get to see Tyler Wells again tonight, so that’s someone to watch. He’s fourth in the league in the last 3 weeks with a 35.8% K%. The SwStr% is up over that same time frame too, which is re-assuring.
Looks like this might be attributable to him throwing more cutters and changeup in favor of the slider:
Really great matchup with the Royals tonight, so again - that’ll be very interesting to see - maybe Wells is a borderline ace at this point, he’s certainly pitching like it over the last month.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 83 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Colin Rea - 89 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 65 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 95 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 69 TBF, 42.0% K%
Michael Kopech - 95 TBF, 40.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 38.0% K%
Tyler Wells - 67 TBF, 35.8% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 107 TBF, 33.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Taj Bradley - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Michael Kopech - 95 TBF, 35.8% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 32.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 69 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Tyler Wells - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 102 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Taj Bradley - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 106 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Alex Wood - 67 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Zach Eflin - 98 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Adrian Houser - 93 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 89 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 89 TBF, 53.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 94 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Everybody gets the pitcher MFQ’s for free today, but most of the time this is where I’ll be putting the paywall - although I do kind of like moving it around the post randomly just to tease some people.
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hunter Brown - 94 TBF, 34.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 58.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 35.6 K%, 3.4 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 55.4% GB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 33.3 K%, 6.9 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Logan Gilbert - +3.4% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.4% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Griffin Canning - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Michael Kopech - +2.1% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Zach Davies - +4.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Hitters
I don’t have a ton to say on the hitting side as I’m running out of time here.
But it’s notable that Jo Adell got the callup and homered immediately. He once again murdered AAA pitching this year:
» 240 PA, .279/.367/.596, .963 OPS, 18 HR (13.2 PA/HR), 15.7% Brl%, 29% K%
Big strikeout problems still, and almost surely he’ll be a 33%+ guy again in the Majors, so there’s probably no reason to do anything in fantasy for him, but if he can keep the K% under/around 30%, he can be interesting.
Multiple Barrels
Alex Bregman (HOU) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Billy McKinney (NYY) 6 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 9 PA, 21 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Bauers (NYY) 7 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Will Brennan (CLE) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Jo Adell, Yesterday: 117.2 Previous High: 114.9
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jose Ramirez - 5.0 PA - 50.5 JA Points
2. Orlando Arcia - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
3. Will Brennan - 4.0 PA - 30.0 JA Points
4. Luis Robert - 5.0 PA - 27.5 JA Points
5. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 27.5 JA Points
6. David Peralta - 5.0 PA - 26.0 JA Points
7. Michael Conforto - 4.0 PA - 25.5 JA Points
8. Nolan Jones - 3.0 PA - 25.0 JA Points
9. Michael A. Taylor - 3.0 PA - 24.0 JA Points
10. Gleyber Torres - 4.0 PA - 23.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 284.0 PA - 14.37 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 209.0 PA - 7.56 JA Points
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 281.0 PA - 6.26 JA Points
4. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 286.0 PA - 5.94 JA Points
5. Josh Naylor (CLE) - 204.0 PA - 2.06 JA Points
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 268.0 PA - 0.37 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 228.0 PA - -1.4 JA Points
8. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 276.0 PA - -4.2 JA Points
9. Keibert Ruiz (WSH) - 205.0 PA - -5.85 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 249.0 PA - -6.43 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jo Adell (LAA) - 117.2mph - home_run
Nolan Jones (COL) - 113.2mph - double
James McCann (BAL) - 112.1mph - double
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) - 111.5mph - single
Jose Abreu (HOU) - 111.4mph - nan
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.3mph - field_out
Ozzie Albies (ATL) - 110.7mph - home_run
Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 110.2mph - single
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 109.9mph - field_out
Brandon Belt (TOR) - 109.9mph - single
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