MLB Daily Notes - March 29th
The first real daily notes post of the year, recapping all of the happenings of Opening Day
The kids have no respect for Opening Day and all that comes with it. They made it tough for me to watch that beautiful 12 inning Pirates win, but a little bit of neglect got me out of a bind there and I was able to see it. Now they’re like “hungry” and stuff and they’ve pushed back the first delivery of the daily notes significantly.
But here we are. We put 13 more games in the books yesterday, and there were some really big performances and fun games. The best part was, I won my $100 giveaway contest as the only hitter to go double-dong was Nick Martini, whom nobody selected. Shout out to me.
I’m strapped for time, so the notes will be a bit more brief today. That’s a bummer since it’s the first edition, but just know that most (week)days, you’ll get a good bit of extra analysis from me. This is my favorite thing to do, but I have to take care of my family responsibilities first and foremost. Thanks for being here, and I hope you come along for the full ride that is the 2024 MLB season!
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Pitching
Check out the “Yesterdays SP Data” sheet here. I think it will even include minor league starts on another tab(s) start next week.
I will not show that resource on here every time, but I do look at it myself every morning. Very pleasurable.
I don’t have the time to get into all of the different standout pitchers, but there are some that are just begging for attention.
Corbin Burnes threw 41 cutters and just dominated with the pitch, earning a 63% Strike% on it. The curveball was filthy with a3 0% SwStr%, everything worked for him. He gave up one lone hit, and it was a home run to Mike Trout in the first inning. Great start for him.
Shane Bieber showed out with an 11:1 K:BB. That was his most strikeouts since September 1st, 2022 when he struck out 11 Orioles. The fastball velocity was 92.3, up one mile per hour from last year. He threw only four-seamers, cutters, changeups, and sliders, but mixed everything well and shown elite command (54% Strike%, 34% Ball%, 50% GB%). Grain of salt, of course, with the Athletics matchup, but you have to love that if you’re a Bieber owner or Cleveland fan.
Jesus Luzardo, Cole Ragans, Pablo Lopez, and Tarik Skubal also got out of the gates quick. All four of those guys should be in the Cy Young conversation with health. I view this group, with a handful of other names to throw in, as kind of the new group of aces. We had so many years of Scherzer/Kershaw/deGrom/Cole/Verlander/etc. and now it seems like those guys have mostly aged out and now these guys between 25 and 30 currently will take over.
One guy you didn’t expect a big outing from was Garrett Crochet, but he was awesome. The 12.6% SwStr% wasn’t elite, but the 53% Strike% and 30% Ball% sure were.
Heavy four-seamer with a useful slider, great start for him, and especially interesting to see him rip out of the gates with 87 pitches. He should be added, I would think. He might be that early season breakout SP, and man I never even mentioned him in all of my speculations about who those guys could be!
Frankie Montas should also be in this conversation. He threw six scoreless innings in Cincinnati yesterday. It wasn’t the greatest outing strikes-wise:
A 9.9% SwStr% and 44% Strike% make me nervous, but he threw a lot of quality strikes (zero walks, 47% GB%, no barrels, 48% Zone), and that splitter/sinker duo should keep a lot of balls on the ground. I also think he’s capable of getting a good number of whiffs with the four-seamer and slider if he uses those a little bit more often. I do believe that four-seam velocity is down quite a bit from what we saw from him a couple of years ago. He’s one to watch, but I’m not willing to say he’s a must-own dude right now. His next start will be in Philadelphia, which is a below-average matchup but not one that’s completely unbeatable.
The bad pitchers were pretty much bad. Gray, Wood, Freeland, and Mikolas all struggled. Framber Valdez got off to a very bad start with six walks, but limited the damage thanks to the big ground ball rate. No reason to change your opinion on that, but yeah he needs to do a whole lot better than a 48% Ball% (you’re looking for a number below 36% in that stat).
Moving forward, now.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (vs. LAA): 36.9 Points
2. Shane Bieber (vs. OAK): 36.5 Points
3. Pablo Lopez (vs. KC): 29.35 Points
4. Tarik Skubal (vs. CWS): 27.7 Points
5. Garrett Crochet (vs. DET): 24.5 Points
6. Tyler Glasnow (vs. STL): 23.7 Points
7. Frankie Montas (vs. WSH): 23.1 Points
8. Cole Ragans (vs. MIN): 22.7 Points
9. Jose Berrios (vs. TB): 21.3 Points
10. Jesus Luzardo (vs. PIT): 20.85 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (DET): 20 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
2. Cole Ragans (KC): 19 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 18 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Shane Bieber (CLE): 18 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
5. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 15 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
6. Josiah Gray (WSH): 15 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
7. Zac Gallen (AZ): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Mitch Keller (PIT): 14 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
9. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 13 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
10. Logan Webb (SF): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
Strike% = Called Strike + Whiffs + Fouls / Total Pitches
1. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 58.5 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
2. Justin Steele (CHC): 55.2 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
3. Shane Bieber (CLE): 54.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
4. Cole Ragans (KC): 53.6 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
5. Tarik Skubal (DET): 53.0 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
6. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 52.9 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
7. Yu Darvish (SD): 52.6 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
8. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 52.4 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
9. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 51.3 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
10. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 49.4 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 48.6 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
12. Josiah Gray (WSH): 47.5 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
13. Jose Berrios (TOR): 47.3 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
14. Mitch Keller (PIT): 47.1 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
15. Luis Castillo (SEA): 46.2 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Plenty of pitchers showing lower velo’s here compared to last year. I wouldn’t worry about that yet, guys are still getting fully ramped up. But it will be important to monitor them to make sure they get that back in short order. Losing ~2mph on a fastball is a big deal.
Brayan Bello's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 88.1
Shane Bieber's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 89.2
Brayan Bello's CH velo (28 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.0
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 77.7
Zac Gallen's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.0
Zach Eflin's FC velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.8
Zac Gallen's FF velo (48 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.8
Mitch Keller's SI velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.9
Zac Gallen's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 80.1
Yu Darvish's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 73.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
This one compares the pitcher’s pitch mix with their prior pitch mix and highlights the pitches being used more or less.
Alex Wood's SL usage (37.2%) up 11.1 points
Corbin Burnes's SL usage (19.5%) up 11.0 points
Frankie Montas's FF usage (27.2%) up 15.7 points
Garrett Crochet's SL usage (45.0%) up 15.5 points
Jose Suarez's FC usage (14.8%) up 11.4 points
Josiah Gray's FF usage (30.0%) up 13.4 points
Josiah Gray's FC usage (30.0%) up 12.3 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (23.3%) up 12.1 points
Shane Bieber's CH usage (15.7%) up 11.7 points
Tarik Skubal's SI usage (22.9%) up 10.8 points
Zac Gallen's SL usage (14.4%) up 13.0 points
Zach Eflin's ST usage (23.5%) up 19.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Nothing here yet
These “Last 3 Weeks” boards will fill up a lot more after SPs get 2-3 starts under their belts. I’m leaving them here for now though. You’ll only see the guys that faced 27+ batters for now.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 29.4% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 27.5% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 25.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 27.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 19.0% K%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 11.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 19.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 7.1% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 3.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 38.1% GB%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 34.8% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 34.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 23 TBF, 34.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 24 TBF, 29.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 22 TBF, 50.0 K%, 4.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hitters
The hitter part of the notes isn’t nearly as interesting until we get a few weeks into the season. A single day of hitting tells us nothing. More and more will be added and refined here, but for now it’s pretty boring.
Multiple Barrels
Maikel Garcia (KC) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Conforto (SF) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nick Martini (CIN) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
J.P. Crawford, Yesterday: 110.7 Previous High: 110.3
Jake Cronenworth, Yesterday: 109.7 Previous High: 108.6
Jake Meyers, Yesterday: 110.0 Previous High: 108.3
Hardest Hit Balls
Christian Walker (AZ) - 113.2mph - double
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 113.0mph - single
Jake Burger (MIA) - 112.9mph - grounded_into_double_play
MJ Melendez (KC) - 112.9mph - double
Ketel Marte (AZ) - 112.4mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.3mph - single
Jake Burger (MIA) - 112.0mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.8mph - home_run
Isaac Paredes (TB) - 111.6mph - nan
J.D. Davis (OAK) - 111.4mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Shohei Ohtani - 10 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.593 xwOBA, 0.179 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 9 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.137 Diff
Gavin Lux - 8 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Manny Machado - 10 PA, 0.415 wOBA, 0.468 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Jason Heyward - 8 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, 0.042 Diff
Will Smith - 10 PA, 0.481 wOBA, 0.463 xwOBA, -0.018 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 8 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.026 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 9 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, -0.026 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 10 PA, 0.496 wOBA, 0.434 xwOBA, -0.062 Diff
Xander Bogaerts - 9 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.068 Diff
Bottom 10
Mookie Betts - 10 PA, 0.926 wOBA, 0.629 xwOBA, -0.297 Diff
Jake Cronenworth - 10 PA, 0.695 wOBA, 0.433 xwOBA, -0.262 Diff
James Outman - 8 PA, 0.399 wOBA, 0.192 xwOBA, -0.207 Diff
Luis Campusano - 10 PA, 0.519 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, -0.153 Diff
Max Muncy - 10 PA, 0.338 wOBA, 0.21 xwOBA, -0.128 Diff
Freddie Freeman - 10 PA, 0.592 wOBA, 0.475 xwOBA, -0.117 Diff
Xander Bogaerts - 9 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.068 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 10 PA, 0.496 wOBA, 0.434 xwOBA, -0.062 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 8 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.026 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 9 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, -0.026 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 14 PA, 5 BIP, 2 Brls, 40.0 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 11 PA, 6 BIP, 2 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 14 PA, 11 BIP, 2 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Manny Machado - 14 PA, 9 BIP, 1 Brls, 11.1 Brl%
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 PA, 10 BIP, 1 Brls, 10.0 Brl%
Jake Cronenworth - 14 PA, 10 BIP, 1 Brls, 10.0 Brl%
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 14 PA, 11 BIP, 1 Brls, 9.1 Brl%
Will Smith - 15 PA, 12 BIP, 1 Brls, 8.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 15 PA, 13 BIP, 1 Brls, 7.7 Brl%
Tyler Wade - 9 PA, 6 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 14 PA, 0.564 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 15 PA, 0.535 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 14 PA, 0.524 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 14 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Xander Bogaerts - 13 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Will Smith - 15 PA, 0.391 xwOBA
Jake Cronenworth - 14 PA, 0.37 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 11 PA, 0.338 xwOBA
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 PA, 0.335 xwOBA
Tyler Wade - 9 PA, 0.335 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Mookie Betts - 14 PA, 21 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Gavin Lux - 13 PA, 18 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 14 PA, 24 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Shohei Ohtani - 15 PA, 26 Swings, 84.6 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 13 PA, 18 Swings, 83.3 Cont%
James Outman - 13 PA, 17 Swings, 82.4 Cont%
Xander Bogaerts - 13 PA, 20 Swings, 80.0 Cont%
Will Smith - 15 PA, 30 Swings, 80.0 Cont%
Luis Campusano - 14 PA, 24 Swings, 79.2 Cont%
Manny Machado - 14 PA, 17 Swings, 76.5 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ha-Seong Kim - 2 Attempts (2 steals)
Jake Fraley - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Trevor Story - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jarren Duran - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Spencer Steer - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Tyler O'Neill - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Tyler Wade - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Victor Scott II - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Javier Baez - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jesus Sanchez - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Ceddanne Rafaela - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jose Siri - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Josh Naylor - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Jung Hoo Lee - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jose Caballero - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ha-Seong Kim - 2 Attempts (2 steals)
Jake Fraley - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Trevor Story - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jarren Duran - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Spencer Steer - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Tyler O'Neill - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Tyler Wade - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Victor Scott II - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Javier Baez - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jesus Sanchez - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Ceddanne Rafaela - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jose Siri - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Josh Naylor - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Jung Hoo Lee - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Jose Caballero - 1 Attempts (0 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Mookie Betts - 14 PA, 0.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Today's SP Streamer Picks
A.J. Puk (43.5% Owned): Projected 5.08IP 2.06ER 6.94SO 1.16BB 18.21FPts
Logan Allen (9.5% Owned): Projected 5.3IP 2.39ER 5.61SO 1.85BB 15.14FPts
Again, lots more will show up there after we get a few weeks into the season. I will also be working to bring more minor league stuff into the fold here. The AAA season gets started tonight. I don’t do much work on the weekends with the family and all, especially on Easter weekend, so the next few days here will be a little bit down and then we’ll ramp it up next week when I get into a more normal schedule.
But the paywall will be moved up and up and up this post as we progress, so become a paid subscriber today to get access to this full post, plus the projections, plus all the algorithm and automation stuff, and every-freaking-thing else!