I did consider writing a few paragraphs about the Easter Bunny, but I feel like I’ve been failing you guys all weekend with the baseball stuff, so I’ll save that for next year.
Somewhat unfortunate that the season started on particular weekend. I have really not had any time to sit by myself and work on stuff I need to work on, and today being Easter gives me even less time. I have to take off to my church early today to run the AV booth and live streaming, so baseball takes a backseat again. But don’t worry I’m going to talk about that Jared Jones outing.
Let’s start it off.
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The young guns have shined to start the season. Jared Jones and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the list.
Jones:
Just dominant with the four-seamer and slider. You don’t love to see the heavy reliance on two-pitches, so I’d like to see the curveball and/or changeup usage come up a bit, but yesterday those two pitches were enough. And it’s not like this is a 96 mph fastball at 45% usage, that thing was ripping in the triple-digits quite a bit. He looked great.
Grayson:
Huge SwStr%, which is just what we want to see from Grayson who has always had the stuff, but didn’t always generate a ton of whiffs last year. Just a reminder about Strike% - anything above 50% is really good, and one point means a lot. So a 54% Strike% for a start can be considered elite.
Kutter Crawford also had a really nice start to the year, he was one of my early-season breakout options. I doubt he’s available in many leagues, but he should be added if available.
The SwStr% and Strike% aren’t nearly as good there, but he does have a good history of a high SwStr%, so I wouldn’t get worried about that yet. He threw six different pitches and kept the ball on the ground, good stuff there, but maybe not as dominant as the box score line suggested (6 shutout innings, 7 K, 1 BB).
I added AAA SP data to the “Yesterday SP Data” Google Sheet, by the way. I did that yesterday morning in anticipation of Paul Skenes, and he did not disappoint:
I will add AA to that soon, I think. Lots of new stuff still developing here.
DL Hall was disappointing. The profile on him seems to be
But yesterday he was low in both (1 K, 2 BB). The command wasn’t there (38.4% Ball%), but it wasn’t completely awful either. You don’t have to own him right now, but I probably wouldn’t be dropping anybody that you do have after just one start, especially when it’s a young upside arm like Hall.
Oh and Griffin Canning sucked, but we’ll chalk that one up entirely to randomness and the bad matchup in Baltimore. It’s not like I could possible be wrong about his 2024 breakout season, right?
That’s it, more to come in these notes in the next handful of days as we get back to the normal daily schedule for me.
1. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. LAA): 30.5 Points
2. Jared Jones (vs. MIA): 27.76 Points
3. Logan Gilbert (vs. BOS): 26.75 Points
4. Zack Littell (vs. TOR): 25.9 Points
5. Kutter Crawford (vs. SEA): 25.1 Points
6. Jordan Hicks (vs. SD): 24.85 Points
7. Marcus Stroman (vs. HOU): 21.9 Points
8. Cody Bradford (vs. CHC): 20.85 Points
9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (vs. STL): 20.05 Points
10. Seth Lugo (vs. MIN): 19.7 Points
1. Jared Jones (PIT): 22 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Hunter Greene (CIN): 17 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 15 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
5. Ryan Weathers (MIA): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 13 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
7. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 12 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Seth Lugo (KC): 12 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
9. Dylan Cease (SD): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Zack Littell (TB): 11 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
1. Jared Jones (PIT): 57.3 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
2. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 53.6 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
3. Hunter Brown (HOU): 53.4 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
4. Bryce Jarvis (AZ): 52.9 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
5. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 52.7 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
6. Luis Severino (NYM): 52.3 Strike%, 23.9 Ball%
7. Joe Ryan (MIN): 51.9 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
8. Tommy Henry (AZ): 51.2 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
9. Zack Littell (TB): 51.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
10. JP Sears (OAK): 49.4 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
11. Ryan Weathers (MIA): 48.9 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
12. Seth Lugo (KC): 48.8 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
13. Cody Bradford (TEX): 48.7 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 48.5 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
15. Jordan Hicks (SF): 48.1 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
Joe Ryan's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 4.9mph to 88.2
Joe Ryan's FS velo (18 pitches) UP 4.6mph to 88.5
Ryan Weathers's ST velo (12 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 83.4
Austin Gomber's FF velo (31 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 92.5
Dylan Cease's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.1
Luis Severino's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 86.4
Ryan Weathers's FF velo (44 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 96.6
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.1
Joe Ryan's FF velo (38 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.8
Seth Lugo's SI velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.6
Tanner Bibee's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.1
Logan Gilbert's FS velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.8
Griffin Canning's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 92.9
Griffin Canning's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 88.3
Austin Gomber's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 82.8
Seth Lugo's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.4
Seth Lugo's CU velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 77.5
Kenta Maeda's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 88.9
DL Hall's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 78.4
Jordan Hicks's FF velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 98.0
JP Sears's ST velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 78.8
Zack Littell's SL velo (38 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 86.3
Logan Gilbert's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 86.1
Marcus Stroman's FC velo (37 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 87.1
Lance Lynn's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 80.0
Yusei Kikuchi's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 85.7
DL Hall's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -3.4mph to 92.2
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (11 pitches) DOWN -3.4mph to 83.3
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (36 pitches) DOWN -3.6mph to 96.5
Hunter Brown's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 79.2
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (21 pitches) DOWN -3.8mph to 83.0
Austin Gomber's CH usage (32.2%) up 13.9 points
Bryce Jarvis's SL usage (51.2%) up 18.5 points
DL Hall's CU usage (16.4%) up 12.6 points
Griffin Canning's FF usage (47.9%) up 12.7 points
Hunter Brown's FF usage (59.4%) up 12.4 points
Hunter Greene's SL usage (54.3%) up 11.6 points
JP Sears's ST usage (45.2%) up 22.6 points
Joe Ryan's SL usage (19.0%) up 14.7 points
Jordan Hicks's ST usage (31.3%) up 10.5 points
Kenta Maeda's FS usage (54.0%) up 18.6 points
Kutter Crawford's ST usage (35.7%) up 28.3 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (17.0%) up 15.0 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (36.6%) up 27.0 points
Patrick Corbin's SL usage (50.0%) up 15.0 points
Ryan Weathers's CH usage (38.5%) up 15.4 points
Tommy Henry's CU usage (40.4%) up 21.3 points
Tommy Henry's CH usage (31.6%) up 12.3 points
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's FS usage (29.4%) up 10.8 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (25.0%) up 16.6 points
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 30.8% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 30.6% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 43 TBF, 29.9% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 29.4% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 27.5% CSW%
Luis Severino - 27 TBF, 26.1% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 25.9% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 30.8% K%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 27.8% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 26.9% K%
Luis Severino - 27 TBF, 22.2% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 19.0% K%
Joe Musgrove - 43 TBF, 11.6% K%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 11.1% K%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
Luis Severino - 27 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 19.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 7.1% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 43 TBF, 4.7% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 3.7% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 26 TBF, 47.1% GB%
Luis Severino - 27 TBF, 42.9% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 26 TBF, 41.2% GB%
Mitch Keller - 27 TBF, 38.1% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 43 TBF, 36.4% GB%
Yu Darvish - 36 TBF, 34.8% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 42 TBF, 34.5% GB%
Bobby Miller - 21 TBF, 52.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Cody Bradford - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 23 TBF, 34.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 20 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Justin Steele - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Kutter Crawford - 22 TBF, 31.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 24 TBF, 29.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 22 TBF, 50.0 K%, 4.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Robert (CWS) 5 PA, 17 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
None
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.8mph - home_run
Jo Adell (LAA) - 113.2mph - triple
Luis Robert (CWS) - 111.9mph - home_run
MJ Melendez (KC) - 111.4mph - single
Randy Arozarena (TB) - 110.7mph - single
Salvador Perez (KC) - 110.3mph - nan
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 109.7mph - home_run
Michael A. Taylor (PIT) - 109.5mph - double
Tom Murphy (SF) - 109.3mph - double
Brett Baty (NYM) - 108.2mph - home_run
Top 10
Bryan De La Cruz - 14 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.115 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 13 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.586 xwOBA, 0.115 Diff
Triston Casas - 13 PA, 0.121 wOBA, 0.233 xwOBA, 0.112 Diff
Luis Arraez - 15 PA, 0.105 wOBA, 0.207 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff
Kyle Tucker - 14 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Shohei Ohtani - 20 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 17 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Harold Ramirez - 13 PA, 0.068 wOBA, 0.14 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Tyler Freeman - 15 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.397 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 14 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, 0.037 Diff
Bottom 10
Oswaldo Cabrera - 13 PA, 0.689 wOBA, 0.213 xwOBA, -0.476 Diff
Mookie Betts - 20 PA, 0.881 wOBA, 0.524 xwOBA, -0.357 Diff
Eugenio Suarez - 13 PA, 0.6 wOBA, 0.266 xwOBA, -0.334 Diff
Juan Soto - 15 PA, 0.597 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, -0.287 Diff
Jake Cronenworth - 19 PA, 0.556 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.262 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 14 PA, 0.563 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.26 Diff
Andres Gimenez - 14 PA, 0.624 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, -0.246 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 15 PA, 0.709 wOBA, 0.48 xwOBA, -0.229 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 16 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.115 xwOBA, -0.226 Diff
Brayan Rocchio - 13 PA, 0.398 wOBA, 0.187 xwOBA, -0.211 Diff
Michael Conforto - 13 PA, 8 BIP, 4 Brls, 50.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 15 PA, 9 BIP, 3 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 24 PA, 16 BIP, 4 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 16 PA, 9 BIP, 2 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 13 PA, 9 BIP, 2 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Michael A. Taylor - 14 PA, 9 BIP, 2 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 15 PA, 10 BIP, 2 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
George Springer - 13 PA, 11 BIP, 2 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 21 PA, 17 BIP, 3 Brls, 17.6 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 23 PA, 12 BIP, 2 Brls, 16.7 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 13 PA, 0.586 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 24 PA, 0.503 xwOBA
Michael Conforto - 13 PA, 0.493 xwOBA
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 15 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 14 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Ryan McMahon - 13 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Christian Walker - 15 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 15 PA, 0.404 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 14 PA, 0.403 xwOBA
Tyler Freeman - 15 PA, 0.397 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 15 PA, 20 Swings, 95.0 Cont%
George Springer - 13 PA, 19 Swings, 94.7 Cont%
Gabriel Moreno - 13 PA, 26 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Corbin Carroll - 15 PA, 25 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 13 PA, 23 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 24 PA, 34 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 15 PA, 21 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 21 PA, 31 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Anthony Volpe - 14 PA, 20 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jung Hoo Lee - 14 PA, 20 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jose Siri - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 2 Attempts (1 steals)
Tyler Freeman - 2 Attempts (1 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 2 Attempts (2 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 2 Attempts (1 steals)
Jarren Duran - 2 Attempts (2 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 2 Attempts (1 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 2 Attempts (2 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 21 PA, 9.5 K%, 17.6 Brl%
George Springer - 13 PA, 7.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Jung Hoo Lee - 14 PA, 7.1 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 15 PA, 20.0 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 14 PA, 14.3 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 24 PA, 8.3 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 13 PA, 15.4 K%, 22.2 Brl%
Garrett Whitlock (19.5% Owned): Projected 4.98IP 2.32ER 5.56SO 1.13BB 14.56FPts
Reid Detmers (46.5% Owned): Projected 5.26IP 2.49ER 5.42SO 1.81BB 14.05FPts
Carlos Carrasco (0.5% Owned): Projected 5.52IP 2.7ER 5.41SO 2.37BB 14.05FPts
