MLB Daily Notes - May 11th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Great Friday night of baseball. A couple of pop-off pitchers that you did not expect.
Alec Marsh: Day-leading 22.4% SwStr% with a 7:2 K:BB over 5.1 innings against the Angels. We’ve seen these big whiff days from him in the past, but for the year the K-BB% is at just 11.5%, although he has been fine in six starts with a 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP (4.34 SIERA).
Garrett Crochet: After the 26% K-BB% he had posted prior to yesterday, it wasn’t surprising for him to have a nice game but 11 strikeouts, no walks, 21 whiffs, and a 62% Strike% was pretty wild. Great stuff from Crochet who continues to smash (29.4 K-BB%, 2.65 SIERA).
Jon Gray: Got it done in Coors, which most pitchers have done this year. 21.1% SwStr%, 7:1 K:BB, 31.1% Ball% and he got through six innings allowing one run.
Jared Jones: 19 more whiffs (20.7% SwStr%) to extend his lead-league to 15, but the Cubs shortened him up when it mattered (or something) and only allowed him to strike out four while giving up three runs (two earned) over six innings.
Michael King: This was the surprise of the night. King has struggled this year and then went into this matchup with the Dodgers and did this: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 11 K, 3 BB. Three walks are high, but his command was not a problem with a 30.2% Ball% and 57.5% Strike%. Extremely impressive stuff and now I have no idea what to make of him (although I never have).
Clarke Schmidt: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 6 K, 2 BB. This was his deepest start of the year, in fact it was the first time he even completed six innings, and it was the first time this season he has not given up a run. But for the year as a whole, he’s been quite good with a 27% K% and 8.6% BB% and 3.52 SIERA. The SwStr% is 12.6% an dthe Ball% is 37%, which is a fine but not all that good combination. Schmidt can be a useful 12-team league pitcher if he can just keep a 3.75 or so ERA and pile up some wins with that Yankees lineup behind him. The bigger story here might just be that the Rays are a bad offense (.244/.314/.362, .676 OPS, 24 K% on the year with the sixth-fewer homers).
Tyler Glasnow: Just more dominance with ten more strikeouts on 14 whiffs. Beautiful 58.6% Strike% and 31.3% Ball%.
Robert Gasser: Impressive debut. 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 K, 0 BB. Nothing special with the 12.7% SwStr%, but showed great command with a 30.4% Ball%. He threw 46% sweepers, which is wild, but clearly that’s his best pitch.
You don’t love to see the sub-93mph fastball velo, but he’s left-handed so you can almost add 1.5 or so to that, and then he has the sinker there too which will be useful if it gets ground balls. I’d say he’s earned a couple more turns in the rotation, and it’s hard to imagine he’s not one of the Brewers top 5 SPs at this point.
Taj Bradley: Not dominant by any means (11.8% SwStr%, 36.6% Ball%), but got it done with six strong innings (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 7 K, 2 BB). Good to see him get off on the right foot in a tough matchup with the Bombers.
Brandon Pfaadt: Okay this guy is starting to make us mad. Six innings, three earned runs, but zero strikeouts? Just six whiffs on a 6.8% SwStr% and a 37.5% Strike%. Weird.
New addition to the pitcher reports, thanks to a reader sending in the idea. Everyday, as part of the automated tweets, my accounts tweets out the last 30 days SIERA leaders. So now we’ll show you the last 30 days SIERA vs. ERA comparison to highlight the top and bottom 10 pitchers in terms of luck.
Here’s what it looks like:
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Peter Lambert: 9.72 ERA, 3.90 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 9.74 ERA, 4.54 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 8.5 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
J.P. France: 9.64 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 6.28 ERA, 2.42 SIERA
Miles Mikolas: 7.56 ERA, 3.91 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 7.17 ERA, 3.74 SIERA
Steven Matz: 8.83 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Jonathan Cannon: 7.24 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 7.0 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Luckiest
James Paxton: 3.80 ERA, 7.43 SIERA
Bryse Wilson: 1.27 ERA, 4.54 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 1.12 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 2.1 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.72 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Josh Winckowski: 3.24 ERA, 5.71 SIERA
Yu Darvish: 1.8 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 1.19 ERA, 3.5 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 2.35 ERA, 4.62 SIERA
Hayden Wesneski: 1.59 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
I suppose we’ll typically be seeing the “unluckiest” just being pitchers that are really bad and have been really bad, but haven’t quite been as bad as maybe they should have been, but some interesting names for deep league adds or trades will show up there most of the time as well. Since it’s a 30-day window, day-to-day we probably won’t see too many changes. Good idea by reader KEVIN, thank you KEVIN!
Corey Seager barreled a couple balls and homered once in Coors, so hopefully this will be the official beginnings of Seager season for those who have him.
He got off to a slow start but has been showing signs of life lately without a ton of box score success, so it’s a good bet he’ll take off now.
Elly De La Cruz stole two more bags to bring his total to 25 (!). That’s 9 more than the second-most (Turang). Everything else has gone a little bit cold for Elly (and really cold for the rest of his teammates) lately.
But this kind of plot is what to expect from the guy, who is still striking out 32% of the time and hitting the ball on the ground on 52% of his batted ball events. 32% and 52% are just fine numbers for what he’s able to do physically, but those two numbers will facilitate plenty of slumps.
Cody Bellinger hit his seventh home run and brought his season OPS to .857 now. He’s been quite good, and has come off the IL hot. 16% K% and 11% Brl%.
And that’ll do it for these Saturday notes, have a good weekend out there.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet
2. Alec Marsh
3. Jared Jones
4. Michael King
5. Jon Gray
6. Tyler Glasnow
7. Robert Gasser
8. Clarke Schmidt
9. Charlie Morton
10. Paul Blackburn
11. Joe Ryan
12. Bryan Woo
13. Austin Gomber
14. Yusei Kikuchi
15. Cole Irvin
16. Ranger Suarez
17. Taj Bradley
18. Tanner Houck
19. Casey Mize
20. Trevor Rogers
21. Patrick Corbin
22. Griffin Canning
23. Javier Assad
24. Andrew Abbott
25. Lance Lynn
26. Framber Valdez
27. Logan Webb
28. Carlos Carrasco
29. Brandon Pfaadt
30. Jose Quintana
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (vs. CLE): 36.5 Points
2. Ranger Suarez (vs. MIA): 34.75 Points
3. Michael King (vs. LAD): 34.75 Points
4. Tyler Glasnow (vs. SD): 31.95 Points
5. Charlie Morton (vs. NYM): 29.35 Points
6. Joe Ryan (vs. TOR): 28.15 Points
7. Clarke Schmidt (vs. TB): 26.81 Points
8. Robert Gasser (vs. STL): 24.3 Points
9. Ben Brown (vs. PIT): 22.46 Points
10. Taj Bradley (vs. NYY): 21.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 21 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Michael King (SD): 19 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
3. Alec Marsh (KC): 19 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Jon Gray (TEX): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
5. Jared Jones (PIT): 18 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
6. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
8. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
9. Charlie Morton (ATL): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
10. Ben Brown (CHC): 12 Whiffs (38 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 61.9 Strike%, 25.8 Ball%
2. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 58.6 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
3. Michael King (SD): 57.5 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
4. Alec Marsh (KC): 52.9 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%
5. Joe Ryan (MIN): 52.9 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
6. Robert Gasser (MIL): 50.6 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
7. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 50.5 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
8. Bryan Woo (SEA): 50.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
9. Charlie Morton (ATL): 49.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
10. Cole Irvin (BAL): 48.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
11. Jared Jones (PIT): 48.3 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
12. Jon Gray (TEX): 47.8 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
13. Taj Bradley (TB): 47.3 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
14. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 47.1 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
15. Austin Gomber (COL): 46.3 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yusei Kikuchi: 97 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.04 POUT
2. Austin Gomber: 82 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.32 POUT
3. Robert Gasser: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
4. Carlos Carrasco: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
5. Ranger Suarez: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
6. Tyler Glasnow: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
7. Charlie Morton: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
8. Tanner Houck: 95 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.75 POUT
9. Logan Webb: 100 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.76 POUT
10. Bryan Woo: 62 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.77 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's FS velo (37 pitches) UP 3.7mph to 88.5
Joe Ryan's ST velo (11 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 82.7
Taj Bradley's FC velo (24 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.3
Tanner Houck's FS velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.4
Alec Marsh's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.4
Framber Valdez's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.7
Griffin Canning's CH velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 88.2
Austin Gomber's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 75.5
Charlie Morton's FC velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.4
Austin Gomber's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.5
Charlie Morton's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.2
Ranger Suarez's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 73.4
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 79.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andrew Abbott's FF usage (61.4%) up 10.2 points
Carlos Carrasco's SL usage (32.3%) up 10.9 points
Carlos Carrasco's SI usage (24.7%) up 10.7 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (38.9%) up 11.3 points
Framber Valdez's CH usage (40.8%) up 23.4 points
Garrett Crochet's FC usage (33.0%) up 18.0 points
Griffin Canning's SI usage (11.1%) up 10.1 points
Javier Assad's FF usage (31.5%) up 10.6 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (55.6%) up 12.5 points
Jose Quintana's FF usage (37.6%) up 13.0 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (20.0%) up 16.3 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (14.0%) up 10.8 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (19.4%) up 18.3 points
Trevor Rogers's SL usage (37.0%) up 20.1 points
Tyler Glasnow's SI usage (14.1%) up 13.1 points
Yusei Kikuchi's CU usage (33.0%) up 11.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -41.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -23.7%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +19.9%
Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -17.9%
Cole Irvin Sinker: -17.6%
Carlos Rodon Slider: +17.1%
Chris Flexen 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.8%
Miles Mikolas Slider: -15.4%
Brady Singer Sinker: +15.1%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: +14.7%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +14.2%
Zack Littell Sinker: -14.1%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Joe Ross Sinker: -14.0%
Chris Flexen Cutter: +13.9%
Yu Darvish Slider: +13.6%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Luis Severino Cutter: -13.2%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +13.1%
Alec Marsh Sweeper: -13.1%
Carlos Carrasco Changeup: -12.9%
Seth Lugo Slurve: +12.3%
Seth Lugo Curveball: -12.2%
Max Fried Sweeper: -12.1%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
Erick Fedde Sinker: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Zack Littell - 75 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 78 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Jared Jones - 93 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 91 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Michael King - 96 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 102 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 76 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 38.2% K%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 37.6% K%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 34.7% K%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Cole Ragans - 83 TBF, 30.1% K%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
George Kirby - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Patrick Sandoval - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Zack Littell - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
George Kirby - 87 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Chris Paddack - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Fried - 77 TBF, 76.5% GB%
Jose Soriano - 83 TBF, 64.8% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 88 TBF, 64.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 103 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Tanner Houck - 104 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 101 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Cole Irvin - 94 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Reese Olson - 90 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Kyle Harrison - 92 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Chris Paddack - 97 TBF, 53.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Paddack - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.7 K%, 2.8 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Dane Dunning - 57 TBF, 36.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Derek Law - 50 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1 K%, 3.6 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 67 TBF, 38.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 37.6 K%, 4.7 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 101 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 55.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 38.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 51.8% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Peter Lambert: 9.72 ERA, 3.90 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 9.74 ERA, 4.54 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 8.5 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
J.P. France: 9.64 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 6.28 ERA, 2.42 SIERA
Miles Mikolas: 7.56 ERA, 3.91 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 7.17 ERA, 3.74 SIERA
Steven Matz: 8.83 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Jonathan Cannon: 7.24 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 7.0 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Luckiest
James Paxton: 3.80 ERA, 7.43 SIERA
Bryse Wilson: 1.27 ERA, 4.54 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 1.12 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 2.1 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.72 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Josh Winckowski: 3.24 ERA, 5.71 SIERA
Yu Darvish: 1.8 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 1.19 ERA, 3.5 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 2.35 ERA, 4.62 SIERA
Hayden Wesneski: 1.59 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Ranger Suarez - +4.3% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Zack Littell - +8.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Chris Sale - +4.1% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +4.6% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Miles Mikolas - +5.6% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +6.4% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +6.8% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Peter Lambert - +2.4% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Ryan Pepiot - +2.3% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Derek Law - +4.3% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 6 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Johan Rojas, Yesterday: 110.4 Previous High: 108.1
Korey Lee, Yesterday: 109.8 Previous High: 109.4
Miguel Amaya, Yesterday: 110.9 Previous High: 109.7
Rob Refsnyder, Yesterday: 111.5 Previous High: 109.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 116.4mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.4mph - single
William Contreras (MIL) - 114.6mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 114.2mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.2mph - single
Ivan Herrera (STL) - 114.1mph - nan
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 113.9mph - field_out
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 111.9mph - single
Jo Adell (LAA) - 111.9mph - home_run
Rob Refsnyder (BOS) - 111.5mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Andrew McCutchen - 64 PA, 0.255 wOBA, 0.399 xwOBA, 0.144 Diff
Manny Machado - 56 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.373 xwOBA, 0.12 Diff
Corey Seager - 77 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.113 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 63 PA, 0.219 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.113 Diff
Matt Olson - 66 PA, 0.219 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.107 Diff
Bo Bichette - 67 PA, 0.174 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Vinnie Pasquantino - 81 PA, 0.317 wOBA, 0.417 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Brandon Marsh - 66 PA, 0.289 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 85 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Lars Nootbaar - 75 PA, 0.242 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Bottom 10
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 0.419 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, -0.155 Diff
Max Kepler - 62 PA, 0.536 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, -0.145 Diff
Ryan Jeffers - 74 PA, 0.479 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Josh Smith - 68 PA, 0.399 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Wilyer Abreu - 67 PA, 0.404 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Willi Castro - 82 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Connor Joe - 56 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Luis Campusano - 59 PA, 0.396 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Elias Diaz - 71 PA, 0.383 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Steven Kwan - 56 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, -0.069 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 78 PA, 50 BIP, 16 Brls, 32.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 86 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 74 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Riley Greene - 81 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Andrew McCutchen - 64 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Davis Schneider - 53 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Shea Langeliers - 67 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Christian Walker - 72 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 65 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 81 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
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