MLB Daily Notes - May 13th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
It’s new data day. The Baseball Savant team added bat speed and swing length to the publicly available data, and tons of people are getting into it already. The data comes through perfectly right through the normal API I use, so it’s already available to me.
Here’s the summarized data for you, I took averages, maxes, and standard deviations of both. There are not a ton of surprises here. Your top average swing speeds:
I think this is largely useless for fantasy purposes. Swinging the bat really hard only matters if you can make the bat hit the ball at the right spot, and once we have a significant sample of data, we have much better metrics to use to predict future production than this.
The one way we can use this is for evaluating rookies. So we could look at Joey Loperfido, for example, and see that he has the 67th-highest average bat speed in the league (411 qualified hitters), and then conclude that if he does figure out how to make proper contact, the power should come. We could have known that by looking at his advanced AAA numbers as well, but now we have another metric to firm things up.
So we won’t focus much on it for fantasy, but it is a pretty cool data point to have just for studying the game purposes. Any hitter who can make contact at a high rate while swinging really hard clearly has extremely good bat skills and should be expected to produce well, and vice versa and all the in-betweens and whatnot:
Here are your highest bat speeds with a contact rate above 75%:
Not a lot of surprises there either besides maybe Carlos Correa or Eloy Jimenez or something. But let’s move on, I don’t want to spend all morning on this.
But first, speaking of Giancarlo Stanton. I had this horrific tweet last night.
The last sentence got me in trouble and let to a tweet on its way to a half million interactions. It always stuns me how many freaking people are on Twitter and are following baseball stuff, that is soooo many people.
In my head the thought was like Stanton’s career has been mostly known by Statcast stuff, so I wonder what we’d think of him and how many fewer people wouldn’t really know about him if we never started measuring exit velo’s. But it came off in those words and yeah that’s really dumb. Although to be honest, I did pretty much forget about those early Stanton years. I knew he had that one massive 50+ homer season but if you asked me how many career homers he has, I’m sure I would’ve come up well short of what’s real.
So I rocked that tweet out at 8:44 after the kids were asleep and I finally had an hour to just sit down. I put my phone down after that until I checked it right before going to sleep a couple hours later and was like damn I’ve got another one on the line. I am happy to say that I’ve officially beaten the game though, I fell asleep within two minutes. The first few times you go nuclear on a dumb tweet does tend to bother you and cause you a little bit of anxiety even though you know it’s completely meaningless - but after a handful of just absolute trash tweets you become numb to the hundreds of random strangers calling you an idiot.
But a stupid tweet is a stupid tweet and I’d rather not issue stupid tweets. But as the great T-Pain once said
Blame it on the al-al-al-al-al-al-cohol
I have almost no idea what happened in baseball over the weekend besides what happened to the Pirates. I think I might just catch up on all of it with a podcast later after I get my real life work done, that will be a little more time-efficient.
Last two days Strike% Leaders:
Last two days SwStr% Leaders:
Hitter fantasy points leaders last two days:
Yandy Diaz (2 HR)
Bryson Stott
Carlos Santana (2 HR)
Connor Joe (2 HR)
Randy Arozarena
Eddie Rosario (2 HR)
Nico Hoerner
Brent Rooker
Kerry Carpenter (2 HR)
Davis Schneider
Hitters who stole two bases the last two days
Jackson Merrill
Jack Suwinski
Edouard Julien
Bryson Stott
Brenton Doyle
Bobby Witt Jr.
“Bryson” joins “Edouard” as the hardest names in baseball for my fingers to type accurately. Every time I end up typing Bryston, which is weird. And the o-u-a is just such a strange combination of vowels…
I’ve gotta hang it up for today, but I’ll do a podcast in a bit here looking over some other stuff that happened that I haven’t seen yet and we’ll try to frame that into the bigger picture.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish
2. Alek Manoah
3. Seth Lugo
4. Justin Verlander
5. MacKenzie Gore
6. Bailey Ober
7. Luis Castillo
8. Logan Allen
9. Jack Flaherty
10. Luis Severino
11. Patrick Sandoval
12. Jose Urena
13. Kyle Harrison
14. Dean Kremer
15. Michael Soroka
16. Kyle Hendricks
17. Bryce Elder
18. Braxton Garrett
19. Bryse Wilson
20. Luis Gil
21. Frankie Montas
22. Tyler Alexander
23. Zac Gallen
24. Miles Mikolas
25. Alex Wood
26. Brayan Bello
27. Zack Wheeler
28. Walker Buehler
29. Ty Blach
30. Bailey Falter
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Lugo (vs. LAA): 41.0 Points
2. Bailey Ober (vs. TOR): 37.64 Points
3. Justin Verlander (vs. DET): 33.35 Points
4. Yu Darvish (vs. LAD): 31.95 Points
5. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. OAK): 25.3 Points
6. Alek Manoah (vs. MIN): 24.75 Points
7. MacKenzie Gore (vs. BOS): 22.7 Points
8. Dean Kremer (vs. ARI): 21.96 Points
9. Luis Gil (vs. TB): 20.5 Points
10. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. CWS): 19.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish (SD): 19 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Seth Lugo (KC): 17 Whiffs (112 Pitches)
3. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 17 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
4. Bailey Ober (MIN): 15 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
5. Alek Manoah (TOR): 15 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
6. Justin Verlander (HOU): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
7. Luis Castillo (SEA): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Luis Severino (NYM): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
9. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Kyle Harrison (SF): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Martinez (HOU): 57.7 Strike%, 26.9 Ball%
2. Yu Darvish (SD): 57.4 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%
3. Bailey Ober (MIN): 54.8 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
4. Seth Lugo (KC): 53.6 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
5. Dean Kremer (BAL): 51.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
6. Justin Verlander (HOU): 49.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
7. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 49.5 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
8. Kyle Muller (OAK): 49.0 Strike%, 29.4 Ball%
9. Jack Flaherty (DET): 48.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
10. Luis Castillo (SEA): 48.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
11. Michael Soroka (CWS): 47.9 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
12. Alek Manoah (TOR): 46.2 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
13. Bryce Elder (ATL): 45.9 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
14. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 45.7 Strike%, 42.6 Ball%
15. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 45.0 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Alek Manoah: 78 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.71 POUT
2. Tyler Alexander: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
3. Michael Soroka: 71 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.44 POUT
4. Bailey Falter: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
5. Justin Verlander: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
6. Jose Urena: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
7. Seth Lugo: 112 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.67 POUT
8. Ty Blach: 70 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.67 POUT
9. Zac Gallen: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
10. Yu Darvish: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 91.8
Miles Mikolas's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.2
Zac Gallen's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 87.9
Bailey Falter's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.4
Kyle Harrison's SV velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.7
Dean Kremer's FC velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.4
Tyler Alexander's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 80.0
Alex Wood's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 82.8
Logan Allen's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 80.0
Alex Wood's SI velo (31 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 88.6
Alex Wood's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 79.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alek Manoah's FF usage (39.7%) up 10.6 points
Alek Manoah's CH usage (24.4%) up 11.7 points
Bailey Falter's SI usage (30.9%) up 22.1 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (16.3%) up 10.8 points
Braxton Garrett's SI usage (47.5%) up 15.3 points
Brayan Bello's CH usage (42.6%) up 11.0 points
Bryce Elder's SI usage (63.5%) up 24.9 points
Jose Urena's SL usage (41.3%) up 10.4 points
Luis Gil's CH usage (38.5%) up 12.7 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (14.9%) up 11.0 points
Patrick Sandoval's CH usage (37.9%) up 11.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.8%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +18.7%
Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -18.3%
Chris Flexen 4-Seam Fastball: -18.1%
Carlos Rodon Slider: +17.1%
Brady Singer Sinker: +16.2%
Yu Darvish Slider: +15.9%
Cole Irvin Sinker: -15.2%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: +14.2%
Joe Ross Sinker: -14.0%
Chris Flexen Cutter: +13.9%
Kevin Gausman 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Emerson Hancock 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Frankie Montas 4-Seam Fastball: +13.5%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +13.1%
Carlos Carrasco Changeup: -12.9%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
Aaron Civale Sinker: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 98 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Zack Littell - 98 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Jared Jones - 93 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Michael King - 96 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 99 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Dean Kremer - 92 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 76 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 94 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 37.6% K%
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 36.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Tarik Skubal - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 34.7% K%
Dean Kremer - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 32.1% K%
Bailey Ober - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%
Zack Wheeler - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Bryce Miller - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 98 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Chris Paddack - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 78 TBF, 24.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 103 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Tanner Houck - 104 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Bryce Elder - 92 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 101 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Chris Paddack - 97 TBF, 53.0% GB%
Luis Severino - 99 TBF, 52.3% GB%
Jose Quintana - 94 TBF, 52.0% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 76 TBF, 51.8% GB%
Brady Singer - 93 TBF, 51.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Paddack - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 34.7 K%, 2.8 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Dane Dunning - 57 TBF, 36.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1 K%, 3.6 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 36.3 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 37.6 K%, 4.7 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 101 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 55.9% GB%
Shota Imanaga - 78 TBF, 28.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 43.4% GB%
Spencer Turnbull - 53 TBF, 30.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Tanner Bibee - 63 TBF, 28.6 K%, 1.6 BB%, 46.5% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Peter Lambert: 11.85 ERA, 3.91 SIERA
Steven Matz: 11.37 ERA, 5.48 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 8.5 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
Kyle Hendricks: 8.1 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 6.28 ERA, 2.44 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 7.77 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 7.17 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Jonathan Cannon: 7.24 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 7.39 ERA, 4.27 SIERA
Miles Mikolas: 6.97 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Luckiest
James Paxton: 2.96 ERA, 6.59 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 1.12 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
Yu Darvish: 1.23 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Chris Flexen: 1.61 ERA, 4.4 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 2.1 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.72 ERA, 4.5 SIERA
Bryse Wilson: 1.78 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Josh Winckowski: 3.24 ERA, 5.73 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 1.19 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 2.35 ERA, 4.64 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Patrick Sandoval - +3.2% CSW%, -7.0 BB%
Miles Mikolas - +4.9% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +3.0% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +5.1% CSW%, -6.9 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +6.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +4.7% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Chris Sale - +4.1% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +2.4% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +2.2% CSW%, -6.6 BB%
Martin Perez - +4.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Cole Irvin - +2.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Derek Law - +4.5% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Ryan Pepiot - +2.3% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +4.9% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 4 Barrels, 1 HR
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eddie Rosario (WSH) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jose Trevino (NYY) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 113.9mph - single
Brent Rooker (OAK) - 113.4mph - home_run
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 113.0mph - nan
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 112.7mph - home_run
Salvador Perez (KC) - 112.6mph - double
Brent Rooker (OAK) - 112.4mph - field_out
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 112.3mph - field_error
JJ Bleday (OAK) - 112.1mph - nan
Jordan Beck (COL) - 111.5mph - single
Matt Chapman (SF) - 111.1mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Manny Machado - 56 PA, 0.218 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.128 Diff
Matt Olson - 66 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
Vinnie Pasquantino - 76 PA, 0.296 wOBA, 0.412 xwOBA, 0.116 Diff
Bo Bichette - 68 PA, 0.2 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.112 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 60 PA, 0.297 wOBA, 0.405 xwOBA, 0.108 Diff
Corey Seager - 78 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, 0.106 Diff
Andrew McCutchen - 68 PA, 0.317 wOBA, 0.407 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Brandon Marsh - 61 PA, 0.245 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Mitch Haniger - 69 PA, 0.191 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Christian Walker - 76 PA, 0.392 wOBA, 0.474 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Bottom 10
Max Kepler - 71 PA, 0.498 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Joc Pederson - 57 PA, 0.391 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Ryan Jeffers - 74 PA, 0.488 wOBA, 0.392 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Connor Joe - 61 PA, 0.376 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Josh Smith - 65 PA, 0.39 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 74 PA, 0.428 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Jose Miranda - 56 PA, 0.353 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.07 Diff
Thairo Estrada - 67 PA, 0.342 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.066 Diff
Elias Diaz - 71 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, -0.062 Diff
Bryson Stott - 62 PA, 0.464 wOBA, 0.407 xwOBA, -0.057 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 87 PA, 53 BIP, 16 Brls, 30.2 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 50 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Davis Schneider - 59 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Christian Walker - 76 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Andrew McCutchen - 68 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 73 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 56 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Shea Langeliers - 65 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 77 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 87 PA, 0.525 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 0.503 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 79 PA, 0.482 xwOBA
Christian Walker - 76 PA, 0.474 xwOBA
Brandon Nimmo - 73 PA, 0.47 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 88 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Christopher Morel - 73 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Danny Jansen - 51 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Ryan McMahon - 77 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Jo Adell - 74 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get absolutely everything that I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.