If you want to learn to do a lot of the stuff I do here, those are great resources. All the information is at those links.
Twenty-five whiffinators and ten strikeouts for Dylan Cease last night. I think I’m officially “hot” in my predictions and prop bet recommendations. Kris Bubic got 22 whiffs of his own with a 9:1 K:BB.
Bubic now has a 1.82 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP on an 18.7% K-BB%. The best thing he’s done is limit the longball (0.5 H/R9). The results have been great, but they haven’t been consistent. He had a five-start stretch in the middle of these two bookends where he didn’t look like anything all that special.
Kris Bubic Fantasy Points by Start
The fastball velo popped up last night for the Boobinator:
Bubic Fastball Velo by Start
It’s still not a high velo fastball for him under 94mph most often.
So, how many checkmarks does he have??
He has FOUR, and that’s perfectly fine. The fastball variations one is a little bit nitpicky. You don’t need that to be good. That’s probably the least important checkmark. It’s more of just like a “that’s nice to have” thing. If you’re getting a ton of strikeouts, I don’t really care what pitches you’re doing it with. So if we look for SPs with those four checkmarks.
Should I spent another 500 words on Ryan Gusto? Probably not! But hello Matthew Boyd!
Spencer Schwellenbach had a good box score result, but more red showed up beside his name on the Yesterdays SP Data sheet.
His season K% is a touch under 21%. that’s down from 25.4% last year. But the whiffs are still there, as he has a 14.6% SwStr% on the year (817 pitches). We saw him above with✅all✅five✅of✅those✅checkmarks.
I’m not sure if you can buy low on Schwellenbach, but I do think he’s going to have a very, very good rest of the year. He’s one of those mismatchers on the SwStr% vs. K% analysis.
Andrew Abbott went right at the White Sox and had great success.
Luckily he gave up the three hits we needed to keep the parlay challenge going past day two! And it looks like Abbott may have made some real improvements in this his third season.
He’s now six starts in now with a 31.7% K% and a 10% BB% with an elite .249 xwOBA allowed. He’s one of just 14 SPs with an xERA under three so far this year.
But I’m still having trouble believing.
23 But Jesus said to him, “‘If You can?’ All things are possible for the one who believes.” 24 Immediately the boy’s father cried out and said, “I do believe; help my unbelief!”
That “I do believe; help my unbelief” is one of the most interesting and re-assuring verses in the Bible to me. It’s not always easy to believe, and I think that’s okay. But let’s not get into it right now.
Abbott 2024-2025
SwStr%: 10.8% → 11.9%
Strike%: 45.9% → 49.1%
Ball%: 36.1% → 37.4%
HR/FB: 17% → 10%
GB%: 34.7% → 25.7%
BABIP: .260 → .254
Good progress on strike-earning, but it’s still a below-average SwStr% and not an impressive Strike/Ball combo. It would seem that he’s benefited a lot from the schedule. He’s faced:
Pirates
Orioles
Rockies
Cardinals
Braves
White Sox
That has inspired me to create strength of schedule based on hitter xwOBA. You can check that out here. And, indeed, Abbott has had a very favorable schedule.
This is based on individual hitter matchups rather than just team matchups - that’s probably a better way to do it. We are once again seeing a lot of the pitchers in the two central divisions facing a weaker schedule than the rest of the league.
Six of the league’s bottom 10 offenses (using xwOBA) are in either the AL Central or NL Central.
Abbott will continue to get softer matchups than the average fellow, but it won’t be this soft. He already has the Rockies and one Pirates matchup out of the way. Abbott’s next two matchups are probably at home against the Guardians and the Cubs. So another soft matchup, but at home, and then a very difficult one.
Here’s the updated HR/PA vs. Brl/PA plot. This is a non-awful way of seeing which hitters are over performing or under performing in power production.
League-wide, 44.5% of barrels have gone for homers. The lowest rates among hitters with at least 15 barrels:
Salvador Perez 11.1%
Ceddanne Rafaela 12.5%
Manny Machado 20.0%
Andrew Vaughn 22.2%
Vlad Guerrero Jr. 23.5%
Bobby Witt Jr. 25.0%
Adolis Garcia 27.8%
Heliot Ramos 29.4%
George Springer 31.3%
Matt Olson 31.6%
And your highest rates:
Kyle Schwarber 75%
Spencer Torkelson 68.8%
Jorge Polanco 66.7%
Eugenio Suarez 63.2%
Wilyer Abreu 61.1%
Alex Bregman 60.0%
Seiya Suzuki 58.8%
Corbin Carroll 56.5%
Riley Greene 56.3%
Brent Rooker 56.3%
Ceddanne Rafael is the standout right now. I think you should go add that guy, because all of the signs are pointing to him being about to go off.
Wild to see! This is an MLB Data Warehouse special find. So let’s hope I’m right. I love being right.
We got three dingers from the young Athletics! Jacob Wilson hit two and Nick Kurtz finally got his first big league dinger.
Wilson now has five homers, which is about as many as I projected him for over the whole season. None of his home runs have exceed 105 miles per hour, and that’s typically the 90th percentile EV we’re looking for.
But if you’re between 25 and 30 degress with backspin, the ball can find a fence. Wilson is now hitting .363/.387/.513 on the year with a 5.4% K% and a 90% Contact%. I wouldn’t have him on a fantasy team with any expectation of more many more home runs, but he certainly has the ability to get the ball out of the ballyard, and yeah he’s been very valuable in fantasy leagues so far this year.
Nick Kurtz now has a massive 110.2 EV90. That’s one of the best marks in the league. His xwOBA is now flirting with the league average around .320. So things are looking up. His last 32 PAs:
The zone-contact rate is up to 77.5% in that sample. That is almost 20 points above what it was at first when we were really down on him. So it looks to me like Kurtz might have figured something out, and he just might be one of the more valuable power hitters in the league for the rest of the year.
The downside is that he’s still not going to be a good contact hitter. I do imagine the K% stays above 25% the rest of the way, and the Athletics clearly don’t love using him against lefties. So the fantasy ceiling is capped, and it’s also possible he goes back to being completely useless. But my money is on him being a pretty solid MLB hitter the rest of the year.
Alright that’s it. No content for the early games today, I don’t have the time, but I’ll get a night slate preview in. And we’ll see if we can clear day three in the $25 → $250 challenge. We’re at $97 right now, so it’s a big night! That will be for paid subs only in the projected powered props article. But the notes continue to be free for all - have a good day!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Kris Bubic
2. Dylan Cease
3. Robbie Ray
4. Andrew Abbott
5. Kodai Senga
6. Framber Valdez
7. Jack Leiter
8. Kyle Freeland
9. Ben Brown
10. Mitch Keller
11. Landon Knack
12. Shane Baz
13. Bryan Woo
14. Logan Allen
15. Jose Berrios
16. Spencer Schwellenbach
17. Jeffrey Springs
18. Jose Soriano
19. Max Fried
20. Michael Soroka
21. Brayan Bello
22. Brandon Pfaadt
23. Valente Bellozo
24. Quinn Priester
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (vs. LAA): 27.41 Points
2. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. MIL): 27.1 Points
3. Kris Bubic (vs. HOU): 26.04 Points
4. Framber Valdez (vs. KC): 25.8 Points
5. Mitch Keller (vs. NYM): 24.15 Points
6. Bryan Woo (vs. NYY): 23.84 Points
7. Robbie Ray (vs. ARI): 23.5 Points
8. Jonathan Cannon (vs. CIN): 23.1 Points
9. Andrew Abbott (vs. CWS): 23.1 Points
10. Jack Leiter (vs. COL): 22.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (SD): 25 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
2. Kris Bubic (KC): 22 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
3. Robbie Ray (SF): 20 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
4. Kodai Senga (NYM): 17 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
5. Landon Knack (LAD): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. Framber Valdez (HOU): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
7. Jack Leiter (TEX): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
8. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 13 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
10. Mitch Keller (PIT): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane Baz (TB): 58.1 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
2. Ben Brown (CHC): 55.6 Strike%, 22.2 Ball%
3. Kris Bubic (KC): 54.8 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
4. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 54.2 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
5. Robbie Ray (SF): 53.7 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
6. Michael Soroka (WSH): 51.9 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
7. Kodai Senga (NYM): 51.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 49.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
9. Mitch Keller (PIT): 49.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
10. Landon Knack (LAD): 48.9 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
11. Max Fried (NYY): 48.4 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
12. Jack Leiter (TEX): 48.3 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
13. Dylan Cease (SD): 47.6 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
14. Logan Allen (CLE): 47.2 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
15. Kyle Freeland (COL): 46.4 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez: 89 Pitches, 24 Outs, 3.71 POUT
2. Ben Brown: 72 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.5 POUT
3. Mitch Keller: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
4. Spencer Schwellenbach: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
5. Bryan Woo: 88 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.63 POUT
6. Kyle Freeland: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
7. Jeffrey Springs: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
8. Quinn Priester: 69 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.93 POUT
9. Logan Allen: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
10. Jack Leiter: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Spencer Schwellenbach's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.9
Jose Berrios's FF velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.4
Jose Berrios's SI velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brayan Bello's FF usage (29.3%) up 22.4 points
Bryan Woo's ST usage (20.5%) up 10.8 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (65.0%) up 20.7 points
Jack Leiter's SI usage (19.1%) up 11.0 points
Jeffrey Springs's SL usage (43.1%) up 18.3 points
Keider Montero's SI usage (30.6%) up 19.7 points
Kodai Senga's FO usage (40.2%) up 11.1 points
Kyle Freeland's CU usage (36.9%) up 14.7 points
Landon Knack's CH usage (33.0%) up 16.2 points
Logan Allen's ST usage (38.2%) up 15.4 points
Max Fried's FF usage (53.8%) up 17.2 points
Shane Baz's FF usage (58.1%) up 10.5 points
Spencer Schwellenbach's SL usage (37.1%) up 16.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Dustin May Sinker: +19.6%
Jordan Hicks Sinker: -18.2%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +18.2%
Quinn Priester Cutter: -17.7%
Osvaldo Bido Changeup: +16.3%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: +16.0%
Tanner Bibee 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Osvaldo Bido 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
AJ Smith-Shawver 4-Seam Fastball: +14.2%
Quinn Priester Sinker: +14.0%
Clay Holmes Sinker: +13.7%
Jose Soriano Sinker: -13.7%
Pablo Lopez Sweeper: -13.1%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +13.0%
Andre Pallante 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
JP Sears Sweeper: +12.8%
Will Warren 4-Seam Fastball: +12.6%
Chase Dollander Cutter: -12.6%
Osvaldo Bido Sinker: +12.5%
Erick Fedde Cutter: -12.5%
Dylan Cease Slider: +12.4%
Dustin May 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Chase Dollander Curveball: +12.3%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 39.6% CSW%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 82 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Tylor Megill - 68 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Reese Olson - 93 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 99 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 73 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Hunter Brown - 71 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 45.6% K%
Hunter Brown - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Pablo Lopez - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
Tylor Megill - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 94 TBF, 31.9% K%
Jacob deGrom - 82 TBF, 31.7% K%
Ronel Blanco - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 45.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 71 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Bryan Woo - 93 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 82 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 88 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 65 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Andre Pallante - 73 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Jose Soriano - 98 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 65 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 71 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Grant Holmes - 93 TBF, 57.8% GB%
David Peterson - 99 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Clay Holmes - 65 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Reese Olson - 93 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks