MLB Daily Notes - May 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
The good:
George Kirby was the ace of the day with seven scoreless, six strikeouts, no walks. Not a great whiff day, but that’s not really Kirby’s game.
Reynaldo Lopez left after 71 pitches with back tightness, but the Braves are saying he’ll be fine for his next start. He was pitching marvelously prior to that with an elite 53.5% Strike% and 29.6% Ball%, he struck out four in five innings and gave up just two hits.
Mitch Keller has ripped off two really good starts in a row now, and this time he even got some whiffs (13% SwStr%, 52% Strike%). The ERA is under 4 now at 3.93 and the K-BB% has crept up to 15%.
Spencer Arrighetti went five innings and gave up just two runs on a 51.2% Strike%. He’s been okay since that first start, and for the year his SIERA (4.32) is much better than this ERA (7.52). The K% is 23.8% and the BB% is far too high at 11.1%.
The bad:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto disappointed (5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 6 K, 2 BB). The SwStr% was way down at 9.5% and the Strike% fell to 46.4%. Nothing to worry about for him, but maybe he’s not quite that every-start-ace some were hoping?
Tanner Bibee did not fool many Rangers bats, but kept runs off of the board through 5.1 innings. The 10.6% SwStr% and 47.9% Strike% were pretty discouraging, and the strikeouts have been lower than we want from him at 24.6% K% with a good-but-not-great walk rate (7.7%).
The other stuff:
Corbin Burnes once again was very good in the box score with six one-run innings, but he struck out just two and dropped his season K% to 23.3%. The SwStr% is still better than that at 13.3%, but his Strike% is about average (47.1%) as is his Ball% (35.4%). The K-BB% now is below 17%, so that sets him up with a 3.51 SIERA which does not support the 2.68 ERA, but maybe Burnes is just that good? Maybe he’s pitching to contact knowing he’ll generate weak contact and can’t really get hurt that bad in his home ballpark or something? I don’t know, I just can’t get past this K% trend
2021: 35.6%
2022: 30.5%
2023: 25.5%
2024: 23.3%
Jordan Hicks survived against the Dodgers, giving up seven hits but just two runs in five innings. He didn’t walk anybody and once again kept the ball on the ground (59% GB% last night). For the year his K-BB% is bad at 12.3%, but his GB% of 56% has helped with that. The SIERA is 3.91 on his 2.44 ERA, so there’s downside here but he can probably be serviceable in deeper leagues as long as he’s healthy and getting ground balls.
I’ve added a new bat tracking dashboard to the main MLB dash, so check that out if you’re a paid sub, but everybody can have a free sample here.
Hitter Add of the Day
If you need some infield power, Davis Schneider is available in plenty of leagues. He now has the K% down to a manageable 27% and the barrel rate is nice at 11.6%. The OPS is up to .840, he walks a good bit (12%), and the xwOBA is nice a .361. He was almost a half-time player at the beginning of the year, but he has started every game but one in May.
Big power in the bat, but prone to slumps with his strikeout-heavy ways.
Joey Ortiz has also been better of late. He’s slashing .268/.354/.634 with three homers and a 10.4% Brl% on a 21% K% over his last 48 PAs since April 26th. Typically we wouldn’t care about a 50-PA sample, and we still really shouldn’t, but it always is more interesting when it’s a rookie. It’s much easier to believe that someone fresh into the league would struggle a bit at first and then slowly improve as they get used to Major League pitching.
Reader Questions
Alek Manoah has had two polarizing starts this year (awful in game 1 then 7 shutout innings in game 2). Based on the underlying statistics (xSIERA, BABIP, CSW%, etc.), does it seem like the most recent start is more indicative of how he will be moving forward or does it seem like we're in for a roller coaster ride again? - Chris
All I can do here is point to the last two seasons:
21 GS, 44.8% Strike%, 10.2% SwStr%, 39.1% Ball%, 19.7% K%, 13.2% BB%, .456 SLG allowed, 9% Brl%, 39% GB%
He has not gotten strikeouts and he has let a ton of ball get into the air, and often they are hit hard.
It’s hard to not think that a young pitcher who was a former all-star could suddenly get back to his old form, but the truth is that Manoah was never a truly convincing arm. The stuff was never great, he was always overly reliant on command, and he long had struggles with left-handed bats. He’s certainly lost something from that 2021-2022 form, but I think it’s fair to say he was wildly over-performing in those years. So you can just forget about Manoah unless he rips off like five straight excellent starts here or something - which I do not expect to happen.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Reynaldo Lopez
2. Shota Imanaga
3. Kutter Crawford
4. Spencer Arrighetti
5. George Kirby
6. Mitch Keller
7. Cristopher Sanchez
8. Jordan Montgomery
9. Matt Manning
10. Jose Soriano
11. Zach Eflin
12. Tanner Bibee
13. Colin Rea
14. Michael Lorenzen
15. Corbin Burnes
16. Graham Ashcraft
17. Matthew Liberatore
18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
19. Brady Singer
20. Randy Vasquez
21. Jordan Hicks
22. Sean Manaea
23. Sixto Sanchez
24. Jose Berrios
25. Dakota Hudson
26. Ross Stripling
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (vs. KC): 29.95 Points
2. Mitch Keller (vs. MIL): 26.7 Points
3. Shota Imanaga (vs. ATL): 21.25 Points
4. Jose Soriano (vs. STL): 20.99 Points
5. Michael Lorenzen (vs. CLE): 20.75 Points
6. Sean Manaea (vs. PHI): 20.5 Points
7. Jose Berrios (vs. BAL): 17.35 Points
8. Spencer Arrighetti (vs. OAK): 17.05 Points
9. Tanner Bibee (vs. TEX): 16.99 Points
10. Reynaldo Lopez (vs. CHC): 16.85 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 18 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Jordan Montgomery (ARI): 17 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 16 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
4. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 15 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
5. Mitch Keller (PIT): 13 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Alex Faedo (DET): 13 Whiffs (33 Pitches)
7. Matt Manning (DET): 12 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
8. Colin Rea (MIL): 12 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
9. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 12 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 53.5 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
2. Mitch Keller (PIT): 52.0 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
3. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 51.2 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
4. Zach Eflin (TB): 50.5 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
5. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 50.5 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
6. George Kirby (SEA): 49.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
7. Jose Soriano (LAA): 48.2 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
8. Sixto Sanchez (MIA): 48.1 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
9. Sean Manaea (NYM): 48.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
10. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 47.9 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
11. Brady Singer (KC): 47.2 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
12. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 47.2 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
13. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 46.9 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 46.4 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
15. Colin Rea (MIL): 45.6 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
2. Corbin Burnes: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
3. Reynaldo Lopez: 71 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.73 POUT
4. Matt Manning: 81 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.76 POUT
5. Michael Lorenzen: 96 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.8 POUT
6. Dakota Hudson: 83 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.88 POUT
7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 84 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.94 POUT
8. George Kirby: 101 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.05 POUT
9. Jose Soriano: 83 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.19 POUT
10. Mitch Keller: 100 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.56 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Matt Manning's CU velo (16 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 82.9
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (34 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.7
George Kirby's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.2
Matt Manning's ST velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.4
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.6
Jordan Montgomery's FF velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.6
Kutter Crawford's FC velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.8
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 95.3
Ross Stripling's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.5
Jordan Montgomery's CU velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 77.8
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.3
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (49 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 94.8
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (22 pitches) DOWN -3.9mph to 80.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Colin Rea's FS usage (16.5%) up 10.7 points
Corbin Burnes's SL usage (31.8%) up 21.5 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (27.7%) up 20.7 points
Dakota Hudson's CH usage (15.7%) up 10.1 points
Hayden Wesneski's SI usage (32.1%) up 14.5 points
Jose Suarez's FF usage (51.9%) up 13.5 points
Kutter Crawford's ST usage (28.7%) up 14.5 points
Matt Manning's ST usage (22.2%) up 14.2 points
Matthew Liberatore's FC usage (20.0%) up 14.9 points
Michael Lorenzen's FC usage (16.7%) up 15.1 points
Randy Vasquez's CU usage (23.3%) up 10.2 points
Ross Stripling's SL usage (42.3%) up 13.9 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (57.0%) up 45.5 points
Spencer Arrighetti's CU usage (32.6%) up 13.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.8%
Chris Flexen 4-Seam Fastball: -18.1%
Zach Eflin Cutter: +17.5%
Carlos Rodon Slider: +17.1%
Yu Darvish Slider: +15.9%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +15.9%
Cole Irvin Sinker: -15.2%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: +14.2%
Joe Ross Sinker: -14.0%
Chris Flexen Cutter: +13.9%
Kevin Gausman 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Emerson Hancock 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
Frankie Montas 4-Seam Fastball: +13.5%
Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -13.4%
Carlos Carrasco Changeup: -12.9%
Ross Stripling Slider: +12.4%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.4%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -12.3%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
Aaron Civale Sinker: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Reynaldo Lopez - 90 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Michael King - 96 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 99 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Dean Kremer - 92 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 96 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 94 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Ranger Suarez - 78 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 37.6% K%
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 36.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Dean Kremer - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 32.1% K%
Bailey Ober - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%
Zack Wheeler - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
Bryce Miller - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Ranger Suarez - 78 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
George Kirby - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
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