MLB Daily Notes - May 16th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Bryan Woo
He led the day in SwStr% at 16.5%, throwing 79 pitches with an elite 58.2% Strike% and a 24.1% Ball%. Here are his marks for his two outings so far:
Last year he was at 47% four-seamer, 25% sinker, and 15% cutter - so the cutter hasn’t come back this year yet and he’s throwing a few more changeups, but this is still 76% fastballs. That’s a lot, but it has worked since he got to the Majors as he now has a career 50% Strike%, 14.2% SwStr%, and 33% Ball%. I suppose it’s easier to put up good strike rates with a lot of fastballs, but it’s harder to put up a good SwStr% like he’s done since four-seamers and sinkers typically don’t get a ton of whiffs. Woo’s four-seamer is very good, he just needs to eventually become better with one of those other pitches so he doesn’t have to be this fastball heavy.
Alec Marsh
Another nice 15.7% SwStr% from Marsh with a good outing:
5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB
That brings his season K% to 20.7% and drops the BB% down to 6.7%, for a decent 14.0% K-BB%. The season SwStr% is 12.5% and the Ball% is 34%, so that’s a better-than-average pitcher by those numbers. He has still given up some hard contact (.321 xwOBA) and doesn’t get a ton of ground balls (39%), so there will be some bad starts, but Marsh is better than a lot of people think, I think.
Michael King
What a sicko, man. He goes seven scoreless with 11 strikeouts against the Dodgers and then gives up six runs to the Rockies. The strikeouts have been fine for the year now at 26%, but the walks are a problem and there’s just no consistency here at all.
I think it might be better just to cut King in 10 or 12 team leagues so you don’t have to deal with this weird stuff, but he’ll clearly have some good starts out there too.
Taj Bradley
5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 6 K, 1 BB, 14.5% SwStr%, 38.6% Ball%
Still a bit wild but it worked out again and the SwStr% was good.
Charlie Morton
3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 R, 4 K, 3 BB, 76 pitches
A very bad outing for Morton there just by virtue of only making it three innings. He didn’t have much command, but wasn’t all over the place with a 36.8% Ball% and a 14.5% SwStr%. I didn’t watch the start, obviously, so maybe there was something else there I’m missing. Seems weird that those numbers would turn into 76 pitches to get nine outs.
Pitch mix for the year now:
Same pitch mix as last year, but the SwStr% is way down from 13.8% last year to 11.9% this year, although he has gotten more called strikes and that is brought his Strike% up two points. So he’s throwing more pitches in the zone and that has dropped the K% down to 23.7%, which still isn’t a horrible mark, but the walk rate still is far from great at 9%. He’s a borderline SP, but I guess you want to hold on to him in 12-teamers with the team context and the current 3.83 SIERA (down from last year at 4.44).
Robert Gasser
5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 K, 1 BB, 9.8% SwStr%, 43.9% Strike%
Kept the Pirates off the scoreboard, but was not very impressive by the numbers we like to look at. I don’t think he’s a 10-team pitcher, but he’s a considerable streamer in 12-teamers and probably worth a roster spot in leagues deeper than that, although he does get a start in Miami next, so I’d keep him for that start at least if you have picked him up.
Hitter Review
Aaron Judge had a four barrel game. That was just the 10th 4+ barrel game since the 2021 season, and it was Judge’s third time doing it in this sample.
I like to use 2021-current data for my “historical” stuff, that’s basically just what I’m going to do moving forward. The world restarted in 2021 for me, so I’m only letting my brain go back that far. I moved from Pittsburgh to Indiana in late 2020, started full-time remote work in 2020, and had my second child in early 2021, so really it felt like a whole new life started for me between 2019 and 2021.
Also, these data sets are really large and they take time to load, so it’s much easier for my Python notebooks if I just load data going back to 2021 rather than the whole back to 2016.
That performance set Judge to the top of the barrel rate leaderboard for the first time this year (I think), right where he belongs.
Aaron Judge 23.5%
Shohei Ohtani 22.6%
Juan Soto 18.1%
Christian Walker 16.9%
Riley Greene 16.8%
Ryan McMahon 15.3%
Adolis Garcia 15.0%
Teoscar Hernandez 14.8%
Kyle Tucker 13.8%
Elly De la Cruz 13.5%
There are now only six hitters with double-digit homers:
Tucker 13
Ohtani 12
Henderson 12
Hernandez 11
Judge 11
Garcia 10
A couple of hitters really waking up lately:
Bryson Stott: Last three weeks he’s hitting .352/.486/.667, that’s a 1.153 OPS which is second-best in the league (to Judge). He’s homered three tiems with an 8.7% Brl% and a nice 14% K% on a .430 xwOBA.
Joey Ortiz: The main piece in the Corbin Burnes trade, he made the Brewers out of camp and struggled at first but he’s been quite good lately with a 1.024 OPS in his last 61 PAs with four homers, a 15% Brl%, a 20% K%, and a 13% BB%. I would call him your hitter add of the day.
Here is your full list of hitters over the last three weeks with Brl% above 14% and K% below 20% in at least 60 PAs
Judge, Ortiz, Langeliers, Soto, Santana, W Smith, Guerrero Jr., Nimmo, Perez, Lindor, Seager, Jimenez, Pasquantino, Alonso
Some other sub-50% owned hitters with OPS above .900 the last three weeks:
Kepler 1.139
Jeffers 1.128
Rooker 1.125
Profar 1.043
Ortiz 1.024
Castro .968
Schneider .950
Bleday .937
Johan Rojas .918
Last three weeks xwOBA leaders, hitters below 20% ownership:
Wade Jr. .423
Profar .421
J Sanchez .410
Ortiz .404
McCutchen .392
Bleday .391
B De La Cruz .383
I have no idea how Ryan Jeffers is still available in some leagues. He’s the #2 catcher on my player rater with his 10 homers, .283 batting average, and 30 RBI. There are different ways to do a player rater, but there’s no way there are even four catchers better than what Jeffers has done this year. The top five is clear:
William Contreras
Adley Rutschman
Salvador Perez
Will Smith
Ryan Jeffers
Not saying that I would definitely take Jeffers as a top five catcher if drafting today, but I would for sure take him in the top 10, and I don’t imagine there are many fantasy leagues out there where there aren’t at least 10 teams that all need to start a catcher.
Looking at it on ESPN, he’s 76% owned, so I guess my ownership mark is off the mark, but that should definitely be 100%.
Some personal news: I have really let a large amount of real-life work pile up on me and I have a very busy next seven days ahead of me, so the content here will be lighter for the next few days, probably. My parents are coming out for the weekend and then I’m traveling to Pittsburgh for work Monday-Wednesday. I’m not even entirely sure if I’ll be able to pull off week 9 waiver wire targets, but I’ll see what I can do.
Ta-ta for now.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Bryan Woo
2. Alec Marsh
3. Casey Mize
4. Charlie Morton
5. Framber Valdez
6. Trevor Rogers
7. Elieser Hernandez
8. Michael King
9. Garrett Crochet
10. Taj Bradley
11. Andrew Abbott
12. Yusei Kikuchi
13. Ranger Suarez
14. Griffin Canning
15. Robert Gasser
16. Aaron Brooks
17. Brandon Pfaadt
18. Tanner Houck
19. Jon Gray
20. Pablo Lopez
21. Kyle Bradish
22. Lance Lynn
23. Javier Assad
24. Carlos Carrasco
25. Austin Gomber
26. Marcus Stroman
27. Patrick Corbin
28. Logan Webb
29. Martin Perez
30. Joey Lucchesi
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (vs. OAK): 33.35 Points
2. Brandon Pfaadt (vs. CIN): 29.35 Points
3. Javier Assad (vs. ATL): 28.5 Points
4. Austin Gomber (vs. SD): 25.1 Points
5. Trevor Rogers (vs. DET): 24.25 Points
6. Logan Webb (vs. LAD): 23.9 Points
7. Garrett Crochet (vs. WSH): 23.65 Points
8. Bryan Woo (vs. KC): 21.59 Points
9. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. BAL): 21.54 Points
10. Griffin Canning (vs. STL): 20.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Alec Marsh (KC): 16 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Framber Valdez (HOU): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Michael King (SD): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Bryan Woo (SEA): 13 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
5. Casey Mize (DET): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Taj Bradley (TB): 12 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
7. Griffin Canning (LAA): 12 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
8. Tanner Houck (BOS): 11 Whiffs (112 Pitches)
9. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
10. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryan Woo (SEA): 58.2 Strike%, 24.1 Ball%
2. Alec Marsh (KC): 55.9 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
3. Tanner Houck (BOS): 53.6 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
4. Casey Mize (DET): 52.2 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
5. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 51.8 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
6. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 51.1 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 50.6 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
8. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 50.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
9. Charlie Morton (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
10. Javier Assad (CHC): 50.0 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
11. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 49.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
12. Griffin Canning (LAA): 48.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
13. Michael King (SD): 48.3 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
14. Elieser Hernandez (LAD): 47.3 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
15. Taj Bradley (TB): 47.0 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Brooks: 84 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Brandon Pfaadt: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
3. Andrew Abbott: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
4. Framber Valdez: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
5. Javier Assad: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
6. Patrick Corbin: 82 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.82 POUT
7. Bryan Woo: 79 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.94 POUT
8. Jon Gray: 94 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.95 POUT
9. Carlos Carrasco: 75 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Casey Mize: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 83.8
Casey Mize's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.2
Martin Perez's SI velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.9
Casey Mize's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 93.7
Ranger Suarez's SI velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.5
Andrew Abbott's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.2
Joey Lucchesi's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 75.7
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.8
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 80.1
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 81.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Carrasco's SI usage (29.3%) up 15.7 points
Casey Mize's FS usage (32.2%) up 12.0 points
Charlie Morton's FC usage (18.4%) up 10.2 points
Garrett Crochet's FC usage (30.3%) up 13.5 points
Javier Assad's SI usage (46.5%) up 15.8 points
Joey Lucchesi's SI usage (63.2%) up 10.5 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (48.2%) up 23.5 points
Lance Lynn's SI usage (29.2%) up 13.8 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (26.2%) up 19.9 points
Logan Webb's FF usage (16.5%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (17.1%) up 13.6 points
Spencer Turnbull's ST usage (46.3%) up 28.2 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (22.9%) up 20.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.8%
Zach Eflin Cutter: +17.5%
Yu Darvish Slider: +15.9%
Carlos Rodon Slider: +15.9%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +15.9%
Cole Irvin Sinker: -15.2%
Chris Flexen Slider: +14.9%
Pablo Lopez 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Kevin Gausman 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
Frankie Montas 4-Seam Fastball: +13.5%
Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -13.4%
Joe Ross Sinker: -13.3%
Erick Fedde Sweeper: -13.1%
Ross Stripling Slider: +12.4%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.4%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -12.3%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Chris Sale - 97 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Michael King - 100 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 99 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 96 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 94 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 98 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Chris Sale - 97 TBF, 35.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 32.1% K%
Bailey Ober - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%
Pablo Lopez - 96 TBF, 30.2% K%
Zack Wheeler - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
Sonny Gray - 102 TBF, 29.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 97 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 31.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 95 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
George Kirby - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dakota Hudson - 88 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 96 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Jose Soriano - 77 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Cal Quantrill - 97 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Quinn Priester - 102 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Reese Olson - 93 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 101 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 88 TBF, 55.7% GB%
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