MLB Daily Notes - May 19th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Luis Gil posted the third 14-strikeout game of the season, that’s the season max so far (Flaherty on April 30th, Glasnow on April 9th). He went for a 22.4% SwStr% and walked just one batter. For the year now he’s at a 31.2% K% with a 13.6% BB% and a 2.39 ERA on a 1.06 WHIP. Having that low of a WHIP with a near 14% BB% is stunning, and the .219 BABIP helps a lot with that. But he’s tough to square up (.276 xwOBA), so maybe he can be a lower BABIP guy. The story with Gil has been clear to me pretty much all season. The stuff is elite but the command is bad. That kind of profile leads to very high highs and very low lows. This was a high high, and we haven’t really seen a low low yet.
I’d probably be looking to shop the guy around and see what you can get, the walk rate is just so alarming.
What Gil couldn’t do is take the whiff crown of the day by himself, even with 22, he only tied Shota Imanaga’s, whose ridiculous rookie season continues. He now sports an 0.84 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP on a 27.8% K% and 4.3% BB%. Crazy stuff.
7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 25% SwStr%, 56.8% Strike%
Jack Flaherty kept it going as well:
6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 9 K, 2 BB, 17.3% SwStr%, 49% Strike%
What more can you say, he’s been one of the most valuable picks in the drafts and is not showing signs of slowing down with a league-leading 29.4% K-BB%.
Seth Lugo also popped off one of those random 10-strikeout games.
5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, 16.7% SwStr%, 31.2% Ball%
He’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league still (1.93 ERA, 3.60 SIERA), but the underlying stuff is serviceable now. You’ve benefited almost every time starting him, so I can’t really say he’s like a drop in ten team leagues but certainly worse times are ahead. But I don’t think he’s ever going to awful, he knows how to pitch and has a strong fastball - so that gives him a pretty good floor. The K-BB% has boosted up to near 18% as well, so that’s actually a pretty big development. He was at 11% a couple of starts ago.
Three barrels for Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees are going to lap the field in barrels this year I think. They have a 10.1% team barrel rate, 0.6 points above the Dodgers. They’re tied with the Orioles for the league-lead in homers (66). I would not want to use many pitchers against that lineup.
And Nick Gonzales also shows up below with a double barrel day. He has a poor .233/.242/.467 slash line but a very high 16% Brl% and nice 21% K% for now (33 PA). The 74% contact% is encouraging, so it’s been a really nice start to his season after the call-up. He was a former first round pick and has had a ton of success in AAA the last two years. This year he really lowered the strikeouts and was just crushing down there, so it’s possible he can be a useful fantasy hitter if he keeps the K% below 25% and keeps barreling above 10% or something.
And that’s all the time I have, talk to you guys tomorrow!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga
2. Luis Gil
3. Grayson Rodriguez
4. Zac Gallen
5. Seth Lugo
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Cristopher Sanchez
8. Bailey Ober
9. Walker Buehler
10. Braxton Garrett
11. Logan Allen
12. Kevin Gausman
13. Kutter Crawford
14. Miles Mikolas
15. Justin Verlander
16. MacKenzie Gore
17. Patrick Sandoval
18. Kyle Harrison
19. Zach Eflin
20. Graham Ashcraft
21. Bryse Wilson
22. Ross Stripling
23. Brad Keller
24. Bailey Falter
25. Jose Urena
26. Ty Blach
27. Luis Castillo
28. Luis Severino
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Gil (vs. CWS): 39.9 Points
2. Walker Buehler (vs. CIN): 29.7 Points
3. Seth Lugo (vs. OAK): 28.56 Points
4. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. MIN): 27.9 Points
5. Jack Flaherty (vs. ARI): 27.3 Points
6. Shota Imanaga (vs. PIT): 26.75 Points
7. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. SEA): 25.1 Points
8. Zac Gallen (vs. DET): 24.81 Points
9. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. WSH): 22.95 Points
10. Mike Soroka (vs. NYY): 19.4 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Gil (NYY): 22 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 22 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
3. Zac Gallen (ARI): 20 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Jack Flaherty (DET): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
5. Seth Lugo (KC): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Bailey Ober (MIN): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
8. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 13 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
10. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Gil (NYY): 57.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
2. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 56.8 Strike%, 22.7 Ball%
3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 55.4 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
4. Seth Lugo (KC): 55.2 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
5. Bailey Ober (MIN): 52.7 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
6. Walker Buehler (LAD): 52.6 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
7. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 52.2 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 52.0 Strike%, 29.4 Ball%
9. Zac Gallen (ARI): 52.0 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%
10. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 51.5 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 50.6 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
12. Logan Allen (CLE): 50.6 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
13. Ty Blach (COL): 50.0 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
14. Justin Verlander (HOU): 49.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
15. Jack Flaherty (DET): 49.0 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Falter: 83 Pitches, 22 Outs, 3.77 POUT
2. Shota Imanaga: 88 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.19 POUT
3. Walker Buehler: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT
4. Zach Eflin: 75 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.41 POUT
5. Bryse Wilson: 58 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.46 POUT
6. Grayson Rodriguez: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
7. Cristopher Sanchez: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
8. Luis Severino: 95 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.75 POUT
9. MacKenzie Gore: 93 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.89 POUT
10. Zac Gallen: 98 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.9 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 86.6
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (39 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 85.8
Luis Severino's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 94.0
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (43 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 95.4
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.5
Jose Urena's CH velo (29 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 89.9
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 78.5
Miles Mikolas's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 77.5
Michael Soroka's SI velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.8
Bailey Ober's CH velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.0
Zach Eflin's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 77.5
Brad Keller's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.1
Kevin Gausman's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.2
Graham Ashcraft's SI velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 94.0
Kutter Crawford's ST velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.7
Zach Eflin's SI velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 90.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's SI usage (32.5%) up 22.7 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (18.7%) up 13.1 points
Brad Keller's CH usage (27.4%) up 11.0 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (32.1%) up 19.5 points
Kutter Crawford's FF usage (47.5%) up 10.2 points
Luis Castillo's CH usage (25.8%) up 10.6 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (18.9%) up 14.4 points
Michael Soroka's FF usage (47.6%) up 19.7 points
Patrick Sandoval's CH usage (38.4%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (27.3%) up 14.7 points
Seth Lugo's SV usage (19.8%) up 16.6 points
Zac Gallen's CU usage (40.8%) up 17.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bailey Falter Sinker: +17.9%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -17.8%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Yu Darvish Slider: +15.9%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +15.9%
Carlos Rodon Slider: +15.9%
Chris Flexen Slider: +14.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.9%
Pablo Lopez 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.6%
Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -13.4%
Joe Ross Sinker: -13.3%
Erick Fedde Sweeper: -13.1%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: +12.3%
Cole Ragans Cutter: -12.3%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -12.3%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Michael King - 100 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 96 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 98 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 90 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 98 TBF, 31.3% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 31.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 33.3% K%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 96 TBF, 30.2% K%
Luis Gil - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 28.9% K%
Hunter Brown - 86 TBF, 27.9% K%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 27.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 31.3% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 94 TBF, 22.3% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 90 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
Clarke Schmidt - 96 TBF, 21.9% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 21.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 96 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Max Fried - 96 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 102 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Javier Assad - 88 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Luis Severino - 103 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 93 TBF, 53.3% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 96 TBF, 53.0% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 51.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 1.4 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Cooper Criswell - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.9 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1 K%, 4.8 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 38.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 7.1 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 33.3 K%, 3.8 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 5.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Peter Lambert: 10.8 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
Ryne Nelson: 9.88 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 9.39 ERA, 4.58 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 8.87 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Kyle Hendricks: 7.9 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Keaton Winn: 8.41 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 8.46 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Paul Blackburn: 7.71 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Adrian Houser: 9.87 ERA, 6.5 SIERA
Joe Musgrove: 6.48 ERA, 3.28 SIERA
Luckiest
Josh Winckowski: 2.13 ERA, 5.96 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 1.84 ERA, 5.32 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.76 ERA, 5.0 SIERA
Yu Darvish: 0.0 ERA, 3.2 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.14 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Trevor Williams: 1.04 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 1.61 ERA, 4.67 SIERA
Bryse Wilson: 2.39 ERA, 5.43 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.36 ERA, 5.22 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 0.7 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Seth Lugo - +6.5% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.7% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +6.1% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +2.1% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Sonny Gray - +3.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Brad Keller - +3.0% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.3% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Colin Rea - +3.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Chris Sale - +4.4% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Martin Perez - +2.3% CSW%, -6.5 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +6.7% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.6% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +6.0% CSW%, -6.6 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Heliot Ramos (SF) 5 PA, 15 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Josh Bell (MIA) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Juan Soto (NYY) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nick Gonzales (PIT) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Taylor Ward (LAA) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Wenceel Perez (DET) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
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