It’s amazing to me the lack of time awareness that kids have. My four-year-old son has no idea how long he slept for. They can sleep 10 straight hours and wake up and think no time at all has passed. One time I put my son to bed, and like 15 minutes later he was calling for me and was thinking it was the morning and time to get up and go back downstairs again.
The other thing on my mind the last couple of days is just about headspace. That’s kind of a lame term, but I guess it works here. I’ve been really wrapped up in baseball ever since the season began. And I don’t feel that bad about it since it’s a big part of how I provide for the family these days, but of course, I find myself taking it too far. If fantasy baseball stuff is on my mind for like 14 of the 16 hours I’m awake, that’s an issue. It’s not good.
It’s been made pretty clear to me in my adult life that you will be ruled by something. There is no real neutrality in what your life is about. And pretty much anything can take that ruling spot. I imagine that a ton of people reading this don’t feel like they are ruled by something, and maybe there isn’t a specific thing you can point to. Maybe it’s just more of an abstract concept. Money, status, comfort, whatever. It doesn’t even have to be something bad like greed or lust or whatever it may be. It can be something neutral, or even something that is normally good (health, exercise, etc.). But something will control your life. Something will be the reason you’re getting up in the morning and making the choices you’re making.
And I don’t want my life to be about baseball or statistics or data analysis or whatever. And I’m glad it’s not. All that stuff could disappear tomorrow. So I’m happy to have set my sights on something bigger, something eternal. But that doesn’t mean my gaze isn’t constantly pulled away from that by like… Colin Rea only striking out two Pirates yesterday.
Let’s do a little three up, three down, but this time we’re not splitting it up between pitchers and hitters.
How about them Mets? They are 21-11. If you told me that would be their record after 32 games before the season started, I would have assumed that their offense was just going absolutely bonkers. And their offense has been good, but the real driver of the success has been this starting pitching staff.
By my calculations, they have a 2.19 ERA on the year with a 25.2% K% and a 16.3% BB%.
I did not have very high hopes for anybody in this rotation other than Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill. But with Megill, it was mostly just “he’ll get some strikeouts and have some very good outings but mostly his numbers will be mediocre”. But everybody has gotten the job done almost every time out.
HOWEVER, as a group, they’ve been pretty lucky.
Everybody but Peterson has a gap of at least half of a run between the SIERA and the ERA. And with Senga, the gap is absolutely YUGE.
Kodai Senga is the guy to focus on since he was the man yesterday. His season K% is under 24%, and to me, that’s pretty concerning. He is a guy who doesn’t have fantastic command, so we really want to see a high strikeout rate for him.
Yesterday was his best start of the year since Opening Day in the SwStr% (14.9%) department. And it got the season mark up to 12.9%. That’s still low for a guy like Senga, but at least it’s moving in the right direction. Remember that it has been a long, long time since he’s been a regular in a rotation.
The key pitch for him is the “forkball”, and it’s been extremely good once again. A 65% GB% with a 23.6% SwStr% and a .195 xwOBA. That will play! But it’s not a good standalone pitch. It needs to be set up with the four-seamer and cutter, and so far, Senga has been pretty poor at earning strikes with those two fastball variations.
I doubt Senga will ever be a total stud pitcher. He will have some outings where he’s just untouchable, but the dependence on the “ghost fork” (or whatever they call it while thinking they are so cool for calling it that) will make him a volatile arm.
And how could it not? These crazy splitter variations these dudes throw… they’re like not even holding the ball.
I have a baseball in my truck that I’ll just hold and mess around with while I drive (that’s right, I’m such a good driver that I only need one hand). And I often like to pretend like I know what I’m doing with the different grips and stuff. So I’ll try to do the crazy wild splitter grip. I can barely hold the ball, much throw it 60 feet with anything resembling accuracy.
I guess you’d say that my splitter would be pretty untouchable, too, because it would never end up anywhere near the hitter.
Here’s a list of every pitcher with at least four starts and a SIERA at least one run higher than their ERA:
And here are the biggest gaps in the opposite direction, except I filtered it to pitchers with a SIERA under 4.25 just to get rid of those really horrible pitchers that we don’t care about even though there’s positive regression likely to come:
We must once again talk about Casey Mize. Are any loyal readers of the daily notes counting how many times I have said I’ll never talk about him again? It happened at least six times last year. But check him out:
6 GS, 36.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5 W
He has given you something to enjoy in, I’d say, six out of his seven starts.
The ERA Indicators paint an interesting picture.
ERA: 2.70
xERA: 2.44
SIERA: 4.13
Remember that xERA is just a measure of quality of contact against. It’s just xwOBA, but normalized to look like an ERA number. There is a perfect correlation between xwOBA allowed and xERA. They are the same thing.
Mize has allowed a .281 xwOBA and a .213 xBA. He’s generated a lot of weak contact.
But the SIERA number doesn’t look at quality of contact, only pitcher-controlled outcomes (strikeouts, walks, and home runs normalized for HR/FB). The thing that SIERA doesn’t like is the 12.3% K-BB%. And we shouldn’t like that either. It’s very tough to post a strong ERA and WHIP with a K-BB% that low.
I queried up FanGraphs for starting pitcher seasons (120+ IP) with a K-BB% between 11.5% and 13.5% and then sorted by ERA. There were 48 results. Only six of the 48 (12.5%) had ERAs below 3.50.
The average ERA of the group was 4.28. So, Mize’s 4.13 SIERA makes a lot of sense. The pitch mix:
That’s a pretty good SwStr% powered by the splitter improvement he’s seen. But the overall Strike% of 44% is bad. That is another number that is pretty tough to have success with. If you want to look at recent SPs with a 44% Strike%, here’s the list dating back to last year and filtering to guys with 15+ starts.
What I am trying to say is that Casey Mize is a clear sell-high.
I mean, you knew I wasn’t going to say anything truly positive about Casey Mize, right? You should know that by now. But I do think my analysis was fair.
We see his name in a few key spots below. He is now a magic formula qualifier as well as an xwOBA improver.
His season has not been good:
.213/.279/.319, 2 HR, 7 SB
But there’s also been a lot of bad luck along the way:
.341 xwOBA, .252 xBA, .240 BABIP
He is still out there swinging at everything. His 61% Swing% is the second-highest in baseball (Pete Crow-Armstrong is just above him). But somehow, Rafaela has gotten the walk rate above 6%. He had a 2.5% walk rate in the Majors prior to this year.
2024 Swing%: 61.9%
2024 Chase%: 46.4%
2025 Swing%: 61.1%
2025 Chase%: 41.8%
There is an improvement in the swing selection as we see a five-point improvement in the chase. But that could just be that he’s seen more pitches further out of the strike zone that are easier to let go. Who knows.
The story with Rafaela (and hitters like him who swing at everything and don’t have a ton of raw pop) is high highs and low lows.
Here’s his 15-day moving OPS from last year:
The low walk rate limits the OPS ceiling, since his OBP will not be very good even when the hits are falling. But you can see he exceeded .850 a few times there, but was also under .500 quite a bit.
You’ll get some homers and a good number of steals from the guy, but you’ll have to endure stretches where he’s by far the worst hitter on your fantasy team.
The other question is playing time. Roman Anthony is coming, and Trevor Story is still healthy. Rafaela has started 26 of 33 games in centerfield. You could see a reduction in his playing time once Anthony does arrive, with Duran playing more centerfield. But he could also survive it. If he’s truly the team’s best centerfielder, he’ll play a good bit - because centerfield defense is, apparently, very important. I mean Michael A. Taylor is still out here getting work.
It’s getting tougher and tougher to hold this guy every time out. It was another very poor SwStr% game for Kikuchi at 8.6%.
He did not get beat up in this one (5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB), but we need to see strikeouts from him, and we have not seen many of them this year.
K%: 20.5%
BB%: 11.2%
SwStr%: 9.6%
Strike%: 44.6%
I think it’s probably fine to drop him if there is someone good or potentially good available.
In Jake Burger’s case, it’s quite literally “down”, as he was demoted to AAA yesterday. That was pretty surprising to see. I don’t imagine he’s there for long. The team just said he needs to “reset”. If it were me, I’d just have let him stay in the bigs. Remember what he did last year after really struggling for a few months. But if he’s going to have a poor May, I suppose it’s better that he do it in AAA. You can obviously drop Burger right now, but in a deep league, I’d be somewhat interested in re-adding him when he does get called back up.
Outside of Wyatt Langford and Josh Smith, this whole offense has been a failure.
Seager has not been awful, but he’s fallen short of what he usually does, and he’s hurt right now.
Josh Jung hasn’t been awful (.279/.311/.430), I suppose, but just two homers from him. That’s not what we’re hoping to see. Everybody else just seems cooked. Washed. Done for. Until they’re not! I could still see Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia bouncing back to at least being above-average hitters. But there’s a real risk with both of those guys that they’re just not good anymore. They’re at that age.
The super ultra mega breakout campaign from Butler is on hold. It hasn’t happened in the season’s first six weeks. The strikeout rate is higher than we’d like (25%), and the xwOBA is not there either at .300.
There have been a ton of whiffs (67% Contact%), and he’s lucky to be hitting above .240 (.215 xBA).
And things have been worse of late with a 35% K% in his last 70 PAs. He does have five homers and five steals, so he’s been good for one of those each week, but we were all kind of thinking he’d play like a first-round talent this year. And maybe that can still happen. Remember that he got off to a very slow start last year as well, but the temperature is cooling on the guy.
I’d be trying to buy-low on him if possible, but we can’t say that the kid has a proven track record in the Majors. Really, he’s only had that three-month sample from last year of being a truly awesome fantasy player.
One more thing. Simeon Woods Richardson pitched last night. And I was coincidentally telling my wife about him the other day. It didn’t have anything to do with baseball. But we were talking about people with hyphenated names (Karl-Anthony Towns actually since I was trying to be a Pistons fan). And it occurred to me that it’s really weird for someone to have a last name with two words in it without the hyphen. What kind of last name is Woods Richardson? Shouldn’t there be a hyphen there!? Is there a logical explanation - certainly. Am I going to look it up? No!
1. Jose Berrios
2. Tanner Houck
3. Zac Gallen
4. Tyler Mahle
5. Seth Lugo
6. Kodai Senga
7. Simeon Woods Richardson
8. Justin Verlander
9. Casey Mize
10. Chad Patrick
11. Ben Lively
12. Sean Burke
13. Brad Lord
14. Yusei Kikuchi
15. Kyle Freeland
16. Andrew Abbott
17. Paul Skenes
18. Jeffrey Springs
19. Taijuan Walker
20. Colin Rea
21. Shane Baz
1. Zac Gallen (vs. NYM): 28.5 Points
2. Sean Burke (vs. MIL): 24.5 Points
3. Tanner Houck (vs. TOR): 23.35 Points
4. Jose Berrios (vs. BOS): 22.21 Points
5. Seth Lugo (vs. TB): 20.5 Points
6. Tyler Mahle (vs. ATH): 19.9 Points
7. Graham Ashcraft (vs. STL): 18.75 Points
8. Jeffrey Springs (vs. TEX): 17.7 Points
9. Brad Lord (vs. PHI): 15.05 Points
10. Justin Verlander (vs. COL): 14.64 Points
1. Casey Mize (DET): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
2. Kodai Senga (NYM): 13 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
3. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Jose Berrios (TOR): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
5. Chad Patrick (MIL): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
6. Zac Gallen (ARI): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
7. Justin Verlander (SF): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Seth Lugo (KC): 11 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Tanner Houck (BOS): 11 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Tyler Mahle (TEX): 10 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
1. Tyler Mahle (TEX): 52.2 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
2. Tanner Houck (BOS): 51.2 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
3. Zac Gallen (ARI): 50.0 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
4. Seth Lugo (KC): 49.5 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
5. Jose Berrios (TOR): 48.9 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
6. Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 48.4 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
7. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 48.0 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
8. Sean Burke (CWS): 46.8 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
9. Ben Lively (CLE): 46.2 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
10. Kodai Senga (NYM): 46.0 Strike%, 42.5 Ball%
11. Kyle Freeland (COL): 45.1 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
12. Brad Lord (WSH): 44.9 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
13. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 44.6 Strike%, 40.5 Ball%
14. Chad Patrick (MIL): 43.1 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
15. Justin Verlander (SF): 40.0 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
1. Jeffrey Springs: 68 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.78 POUT
2. Colin Rea: 73 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.06 POUT
3. Tanner Houck: 86 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.1 POUT
4. Jose Berrios: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
5. Brad Lord: 69 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.6 POUT
6. Casey Mize: 95 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.75 POUT
7. Taijuan Walker: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Justin Verlander: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
9. Zac Gallen: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Tyler Mahle: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Tanner Houck's SI velo (54 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 95.8
Ben Lively's SI usage (41.8%) up 11.5 points
Ben Lively's FC usage (15.4%) up 13.5 points
Brad Lord's CH usage (23.2%) up 15.0 points
Casey Mize's SV usage (17.9%) up 13.9 points
Colin Rea's FF usage (61.6%) up 38.4 points
Jeffrey Springs's FF usage (54.4%) up 10.2 points
Justin Verlander's FF usage (63.5%) up 14.5 points
Kyle Freeland's ST usage (18.7%) up 12.7 points
Kyle Freeland's FC usage (17.6%) up 13.8 points
Paul Skenes's FS usage (22.1%) up 15.9 points
Paul Skenes's ST usage (22.1%) up 11.2 points
Taijuan Walker's FC usage (30.6%) up 14.8 points
Tanner Houck's SI usage (62.8%) up 28.7 points
Tyler Mahle's FS usage (44.4%) up 15.1 points
Yusei Kikuchi's SL usage (41.9%) up 16.1 points
Zac Gallen's FC usage (14.4%) up 10.9 points
Chad Patrick 4-Seam Fastball: -17.0%
Will Warren Sinker: -15.5%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: -15.3%
Gavin Williams Sweeper: -14.4%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +14.4%
Taj Bradley Cutter: -14.2%
Luis Severino Cutter: +13.9%
Zack Littell Sinker: -13.6%
Jose Soriano Sinker: -13.1%
Gavin Williams Curveball: +13.0%
Ben Lively 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Osvaldo Bido Sinker: +12.8%
Framber Valdez Curveball: -12.5%
Miles Mikolas Sinker: -12.5%
Griffin Canning Slider: -12.2%
Corbin Burnes Cutter: -12.0%
Max Meyer - 68 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 85 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Ben Brown - 64 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Reese Olson - 92 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 93 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Hunter Brown - 69 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 91 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Landen Roupp - 92 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Max Meyer - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 35.8% K%
Luis L. Ortiz - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Nick Pivetta - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
Hunter Brown - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Max Meyer - 68 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 93 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Jose Soriano - 71 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Andre Pallante - 96 TBF, 61.5% GB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 98 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Max Meyer - 68 TBF, 58.8% GB%
J.T. Ginn - 63 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Quinn Priester - 64 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Tanner Houck - 92 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Brandon Eisert - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 0.0 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 43 TBF, 37.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 65 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tylor Megill - 69 TBF, 31.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 67 TBF, 35.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Unluckiest
German Marquez: 12.81 ERA, 5.74 SIERA
Sandy Alcantara: 11.02 ERA, 5.56 SIERA
Connor Gillispie: 9.43 ERA, 4.24 SIERA
Charlie Morton: 9.26 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Jordan Hicks: 7.52 ERA, 4.1 SIERA
Easton Lucas: 7.41 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Kyle Freeland: 6.82 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Eduardo Rodriguez: 6.26 ERA, 3.33 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 7.23 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Tyler Gilbert: 5.59 ERA, 2.89 SIERA
Luckiest
Jose Quintana: 1.14 ERA, 4.68 SIERA
Tyler Mahle: 1.0 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Kodai Senga: 0.98 ERA, 3.9 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 2.2 ERA, 4.82 SIERA
Max Fried: 1.09 ERA, 3.54 SIERA
Mitchell Parker: 3.19 ERA, 5.58 SIERA
Shane Smith: 2.02 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 0.38 ERA, 2.67 SIERA
David Festa: 1.38 ERA, 3.62 SIERA
Jackson Jobe: 2.7 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Jake Irvin - +3.6% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.4% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +2.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Tylor Megill - +3.8% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Hunter Brown - +4.4% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Hunter Greene - +2.6% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - +3.5% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Alejandro Kirk (TOR) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Javier Baez (DET) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jorge Soler (LAA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Juan Soto (NYM) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brooks Baldwin, Yesterday: 110.0 Previous High: 107.1
Heliot Ramos, Yesterday: 112.8 Previous High: 112.7
Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) - 115.3mph - home_run
Heliot Ramos (SF) - 112.8mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.8mph - home_run
Salvador Perez (KC) - 110.8mph - double
Alexander Canario (PIT) - 110.6mph - field_out
Juan Soto (NYM) - 110.1mph - field_out
Addison Barger (TOR) - 110.0mph - field_out
Brooks Baldwin (CWS) - 110.0mph - double
Drew Waters (KC) - 109.6mph - single
Juan Soto (NYM) - 109.6mph - home_run
Top 10
Salvador Perez - 126 PA, 0.29 wOBA, 0.412 xwOBA, 0.122 Diff
Andrew Vaughn - 121 PA, 0.214 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Brandon Lowe - 113 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 115 PA, 0.314 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Otto Lopez - 118 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Alec Bohm - 123 PA, 0.236 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Manny Machado - 117 PA, 0.336 wOBA, 0.408 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 114 PA, 0.3 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Ceddanne Rafaela - 104 PA, 0.271 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Eric Wagaman - 102 PA, 0.313 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Bottom 10
Andy Pages - 108 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Pavin Smith - 96 PA, 0.46 wOBA, 0.395 xwOBA, -0.065 Diff
Luis Arraez - 104 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.062 Diff
Harrison Bader - 94 PA, 0.339 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.056 Diff
Alex Bregman - 146 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, -0.051 Diff
Hunter Goodman - 114 PA, 0.358 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, -0.05 Diff
Cedric Mullins II - 119 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, -0.047 Diff
Zach McKinstry - 116 PA, 0.381 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, -0.046 Diff
Victor Scott II - 108 PA, 0.33 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.046 Diff
Bryson Stott - 119 PA, 0.347 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.044 Diff
Oneil Cruz - 74 PA, 42 BIP, 13 Brls, 31.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 76 PA, 43 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.9 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 50 PA, 41 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.8 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 85 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 70 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 70 PA, 56 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 71 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Heston Kjerstad - 49 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 54 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 50 PA, 0.553 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 0.509 xwOBA
Austin Hays - 57 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 62 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 90 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Oneil Cruz - 74 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 68 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 85 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 73 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Zach Neto - 48 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 135 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 48 PA, 74 Swings, 93.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 72 PA, 122 Swings, 91.8 Cont%
Caleb Durbin - 48 PA, 75 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Xavier Edwards - 84 PA, 134 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Jacob Wilson - 74 PA, 119 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 76 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Jung Hoo Lee - 77 PA, 134 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 76 PA, 140 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Mike Yastrzemski - 69 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Luis Robert - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Jarren Duran - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Zach Neto - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Luke Keaschall - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Luis Robert - 17 Attempts (12 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 15 Attempts (12 steals)
Jarren Duran - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 12 Attempts (7 steals)
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Brice Turang - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Sal Frelick - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Trea Turner - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Dylan Moore - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jake Meyers - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Caballero - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 17.1 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 82 PA, 15.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Andrew McCutchen - 65 PA, 15.4 K%, 19.6 Brl%
Ceddanne Rafaela - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 50 PA, 10.0 K%, 26.8 Brl%
Manny Machado - 62 PA, 14.5 K%, 18.4 Brl%
Matt Olson - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 70 PA, 18.6 K%, 21.4 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 73 PA, 13.7 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Ty France - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Will Smith - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 123 PA, +0.116 xwOBA
Ceddanne Rafaela - 89 PA, +0.097 xwOBA
Kyle Stowers - 94 PA, +0.096 xwOBA
Geraldo Perdomo - 122 PA, +0.095 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 98 PA, +0.091 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 126 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 104 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Spencer Torkelson - 116 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Tommy Edman - 97 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Oneil Cruz - 102 PA, +0.087 xwOBA
Christopher Morel - 80 PA, +13.3 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 102 PA, +11.9 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 126 PA, +11.0 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 127 PA, +10.1 Brl%
Kyle Stowers - 94 PA, +9.3 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 111 PA, +8.6 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 92 PA, +8.4 Brl%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 104 PA, +8.2 Brl%
Pavin Smith - 88 PA, +7.8 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 123 PA, +7.0 Brl%
Shea Langeliers - 97 PA, +11.5 Cont%
Tyler Soderstrom - 114 PA, +10.4 Cont%
Teoscar Hernandez - 95 PA, +8.7 Cont%
Junior Caminero - 106 PA, +8.6 Cont%
Mike Yastrzemski - 98 PA, +8.6 Cont%
Kerry Carpenter - 90 PA, +8.5 Cont%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 104 PA, +8.4 Cont%
Marcell Ozuna - 99 PA, +7.7 Cont%
Ian Happ - 121 PA, +7.6 Cont%
Michael Harris II - 106 PA, +7.3 Cont%
Shea Langeliers - 97 PA, -13.8 K%
Teoscar Hernandez - 95 PA, -13.1 K%
Ian Happ - 121 PA, -10.8 K%
Mickey Moniak - 84 PA, -10.5 K%
Ceddanne Rafaela - 89 PA, -10.1 K%
Rhys Hoskins - 94 PA, -9.7 K%
Tyler Soderstrom - 114 PA, -9.4 K%
Nolan Arenado - 105 PA, -8.8 K%
Kerry Carpenter - 90 PA, -8.4 K%
Pete Alonso - 123 PA, -8.4 K%
Joc Pederson: +3.2
Bo Bichette: +2.92
Bryson Stott: +2.42
Willi Castro: +2.33
Keibert Ruiz: +2.32
Jorge Polanco: -2.27
Miguel Andujar: -1.97
George Springer: -1.97
Geraldo Perdomo: -1.85
Jacob Young: -1.85
Isaac Paredes - +7.1% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -10.2 Chase%
Geraldo Perdomo - +5.4% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -8.7 Chase%
Johan Rojas - +5.2% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Ceddanne Rafaela - +4.5% Contact%, +11.4 mph exit velo, -14.6 Chase%
Heliot Ramos - +10.5% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Alex Bregman - 0.413 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 80.8% Contact%, 15.0% Chase%, 16.4% K%
Francisco Lindor - 0.376 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 83.2% Contact%, 23.7% Chase%, 11.1% K%
Freddie Freeman - 0.414 xwOBA, 13.3% Brl%, 76.9% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 21.7% K%
Gleyber Torres - 0.425 xwOBA, 12.0% Brl%, 84.3% Contact%, 17.5% Chase%, 8.3% K%
Ian Happ - 0.438 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 77.5% Contact%, 22.6% Chase%, 13.2% K%
J.P. Crawford - 0.43 xwOBA, 12.1% Brl%, 90.3% Contact%, 22.3% Chase%, 15.2% K%
Kyle Tucker - 0.416 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 79.3% Contact%, 20.0% Chase%, 12.0% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.441 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 78.5% Contact%, 23.5% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Matt Olson - 0.401 xwOBA, 13.9% Brl%, 78.7% Contact%, 18.4% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Teoscar Hernandez - 0.47 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 77.6% Contact%, 21.9% Chase%, 12.5% K%
Ty France - 0.468 xwOBA, 20.5% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 14.8% K%
Matt Mervis - 40.5% Whiff%, 81.0% Weak%, 0.982 Cold Rating
Lawrence Butler - 41.5% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.972 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 37.3% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.966 Cold Rating
Gabriel Arias - 43.4% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.95 Cold Rating
Michael Conforto - 31.9% Whiff%, 81.8% Weak%, 0.917 Cold Rating
Ryan Mountcastle - 34.1% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.906 Cold Rating
Patrick Bailey - 35.3% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating
Tommy Pham - 30.6% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Kameron Misner - 35.7% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating
Nolan Gorman - 32.9% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Ethan Workinger (nan): 3/5, 3R, 3HR, 8RBI, 0SB, 52FPts
Jose Rojas (NYY): 3/6, 3R, 3HR, 8RBI, 0SB, 52FPts
Bobby Seymour (TB): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 39FPts
Tanner Schobel (MIN): 3/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Everson Pereira (NYY): 2/5, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Ismael Munguia (NYY): 3/5, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Aramis Garcia (ARI): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Davis Wendzel (CIN): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Jon Singleton (NYM): 1/2, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 26FPts
Levi Jordan (CIN): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 26FPts
Samuel Aldegheri (LAA): 0 Pitches, 7IP, 5H, 0ER, 8K, 3BB, 30FPts
Bubba Chandler (PIT): 71 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 9K, 1BB, 28FPts
Hayden Mullins (BOS): 83 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 10K, 4BB, 26FPts
T.J. Sikkema (CIN): 90 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 25FPts
Aaron Wilkerson (CIN): 83 Pitches, 7IP, 5H, 1ER, 5K, 0BB, 24FPts
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (OAK): 84 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 24FPts
Ian Mejia (nan): 81 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 23FPts
Joe Rock (TB): 86 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB, 23FPts
Easton Lucas (TOR): 84 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 4K, 1BB, 23FPts
Miguel Ullola (HOU): 80 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 23FPts
Jordan Lawlar (AAA - ARI) 133 PA 1.156 OPS
Peyton Wilson (AAA - KC) 105 PA 1.151 OPS
Tim Elko (AAA - CWS) 109 PA 1.112 OPS
C.J. Kayfus (AAA - CLE) 88 PA 1.112 OPS
Otto Kemp (AAA - PHI) 133 PA 1.087 OPS
Joe Mack (AAA - MIA) 87 PA 1.074 OPS
Moises Ballesteros (AAA - CHC) 113 PA 1.055 OPS
Luis Campusano (AAA - SD) 110 PA 1.043 OPS
Carson McCusker (AAA - MIN) 96 PA 1.036 OPS
Cooper Kinney (AA - TB) 88 PA 1.028 OPS
Max Anderson (AA - DET) 89 PA 1.007 OPS
Jon Singleton (AAA - NYM) 94 PA 0.994 OPS
Chad Stevens (AAA - LAA) 94 PA 0.993 OPS
Yonathan Perlaza (AAA - SD) 117 PA 0.989 OPS
Trenton Brooks (AAA - SD) 125 PA 0.985 OPS
Logan Davidson (AAA - OAK) 123 PA 0.975 OPS
Jose Ramos - 682947 (AA - LAD) 92 PA 0.967 OPS
Yohendrick Pinango (AA - TOR) 94 PA 0.964 OPS
Junior Perez (AA - OAK) 97 PA 0.963 OPS
Kyle Karros (AA - COL) 92 PA 0.959 OPS
Hunter Barco (AA - PIT) 20 IP 34.7% K-BB
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 25 IP 31.9% K-BB
Jackson Wolf (AA - SD) 25 IP 29.4% K-BB
Jack Wenninger (AA - NYM) 24 IP 27.6% K-BB
Kyle Harrison (AAA - SF) 26 IP 26.3% K-BB
Shane Drohan (AAA - BOS) 23 IP 26.1% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 23 IP 26.0% K-BB
Henry Baez (AA - SD) 22 IP 25.6% K-BB
George Klassen (AA - LAA) 20 IP 25.6% K-BB
Jose Fleury (AA - HOU) 22 IP 25.0% K-BB
Robby Snelling (AA - MIA) 26 IP 24.7% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 31 IP 23.6% K-BB
Zebby Matthews (AAA - MIN) 23 IP 23.5% K-BB
Blade Tidwell (AAA - NYM) 27 IP 23.1% K-BB
Mitch Bratt (AA - TEX) 20 IP 23.0% K-BB
Riley Gowens (AA - CWS) 21 IP 22.9% K-BB
Henry Williams (AA - KC) 23 IP 22.9% K-BB
Aaron Wilkerson (AAA - CIN) 30 IP 22.8% K-BB
Braeden Fausnaught (AA - PHI) 20 IP 22.6% K-BB
John Klein (AA - MIN) 21 IP 22.5% K-BB
Ben Brown (6.0% Owned): Projected 5.46IP 2.35ER 5.77SO 2.51BB 16.17FPts
Grant Holmes (18.5% Owned): Projected 6.11IP 2.76ER 5.84SO 2.33BB 16.13FPts
Carlos Duran (0.0% Owned): Projected 5.17IP 2.1ER 5.22SO 1.83BB 15.43FPts
Jordan Beck - 37 PA, 1.312 OPS
Miguel Vargas - 33 PA, 1.205 OPS
J.P. Crawford - 34 PA, 1.185 OPS
Eli White - 29 PA, 1.165 OPS
Kyle Stowers - 26 PA, 1.09 OPS
Drew Waters - 35 PA, 1.036 OPS
Javier Baez - 28 PA, 1.024 OPS
Ty France - 42 PA, 0.996 OPS
Max Kepler - 30 PA, 0.977 OPS
Andrew McCutchen - 39 PA, 0.956 OPS
Byron Buxton CF (47.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.26HR 0.75RBI 1.19SO 0.22BB 0.1SB 9.38FPts
Zach Neto SS (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.77R 0.2HR 0.52RBI 1.33SO 0.17BB 0.16SB 9.01FPts
Mike Yastrzemski CF (17.0% Owned): Projected 0.78R 0.19HR 0.56RBI 0.97SO 0.41BB 0.05SB 8.99FPts
Trent Grisham CF (21.5% Owned): Projected 0.81R 0.21HR 0.57RBI 1.36SO 0.69BB 0.08SB 8.96FPts
Randal Grichuk RF (0.5% Owned): Projected 0.68R 0.21HR 0.65RBI 0.9SO 0.28BB 0.01SB 8.8FPts
Chandler Simpson SS (29.5% Owned): Projected 0.57R 0.01HR 0.4RBI 0.84SO 0.21BB 0.46SB 8.42FPts
Edouard Julien 2B (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.75R 0.13HR 0.49RBI 1.43SO 0.58BB 0.07SB 8.28FPts
Michael Busch 2B (48.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.15HR 0.73RBI 1.12SO 0.59BB 0.06SB 8.25FPts
Jonathan India 2B (43.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.12HR 0.54RBI 0.77SO 0.43BB 0.08SB 8.2FPts
Jordan Beck RF (17.5% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.17HR 0.53RBI 1.81SO 0.48BB 0.18SB 8.19FPts
