MLB Daily Notes - May 20th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
That was a looong weekend. My parents were here for four nights and we had a dance recital for my daughter and the weather was great so we were running around outside and swimming and doing all this stuff. It culminated for me last night with Opening Day in the men’s baseball league I play in. I was looking forward to that for awhile, but my career winning percentage in sports has now fallen even further. I must be at .300 or something, it seems like every team I ever end up on is bad. Your boy let the team down too, going 1/4 from the lead-off spot and making a couple of errors at shortstop. There were some good moments in there as well but at the end of the day a 6-4 loss, which basically immediately puts us out of playoff contention - lol. Weird league. Man it’s a lot of fun to play though, those games are the only times in my life I ever get anywhere close to nervous so it’s a real experience for me.
But I wasn’t able to pay much attention to MLB baseball at all this weekend, which is a growing trend. And now today I drive to Pittsburgh to the HQ of my company to meet our summer intern and help get him started, and then we go on vacation in 10 days so it’s a real head-spinning time of the year. But I’ll be here with you the whole way through, I promise.
There are so many interesting names that pitched yesterday, and some guys we should really zoom in on, so let’s do that.
Hunter Greene
Great stuff from the Reds righty.
6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB
And that was against the Dodgers!
Here’s the debut of a new pitcher plot:
The book on Greene has always been that he gets a lot of all three of those categories - strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Any pitcher that can go out and strikeout 10 hitters will have some excellent starts, but any pitcher with a high walk rate and a home run problem will have some bad starts. And that’s pretty much what we’ve seen from Greene in his young career. But last night was a good one. The season stats we care about:
14.8% SwStr%, 35.3% Ball%, 49.9% Strike%, 38.5% GB%, 3.72 SIERA
I don’t think Greene will manage a low HR/9 for long, but maybe there’s room for some improvement on both the K% and BB%. He has a career 30.0% K% and a 9.4% BB%, so he’s worse than both of those so far this year, and that would mean he’s more likely to improve than deprove. Of course, deprove isn’t a word, and grammatically I don’t think it even works with that “prove” root word and the “de” prefix, but that sentence sounds better to me if deprove was a word.
My take on Greene remains the same, you take the Blake Snell Approach™, start him every time and take the good with the bad, because at the end of the year the good should beat the bad.
Carlos Rodon
Rodon’s season has been tough to figure out. He now has a 2.95 ERA and a 3.88 SIERA on a good-not-great 23.5% K% and 6.8% BB%.
I really did not expect to be sitting here on May 20th and seeing Rodon completely healthy with a 12.9% SwStr%. He has always been one of the best whiff-generators in the league when healthy, but that does not seem to be who he is anymore. You see that it’s improved over these last three starts (17.6% SwStr%), but the ball rate has gone up a bit with it (34.2%). Over these three he has a 25.3% K% and 2.7% BB%, which is a great K-BB%, but even still - not the super high strikeout rate we’re used to.
More season long numbers:
47.2% Strike%, 36% Ball%, 12.9% SwStr%, 10.8% Brl%, 32% GB%
He’s been great against lefties, but pretty mediocre against righties:
198 PA, .243/.318/.452, .770 OPS, 21% K%, 7% BB%, 11% Brl%, 8 HR
That’s a homer every 25 PA’s for righties, which isn’t awful but well ahead of the league average which sits in the mid-30’s this year.
I was pretty discouraged on Rodon a couple of weeks ago, and I still don’t feel great about him, but these last three starts have helped. If I had him, I’d still be trying to capitalize on the name value and the good run of starts here, I just don’t see him having a ton of success with this newfound sub-13% SwStr%.
Corbin Burnes
I don’t know what the deal with Burnes is. He struck out 11 Mariners yesterday and improved his season ERA to 2.56 and the SIERA to 3.24.
That start raised his season K% more than two points. He has struck out more than six hitters just twice all year, but both of those outputs were 11.
The SwStr% line doesn’t even follow the strikeout line above:
Sometimes he strikes a ton of dudes out without the whiffs, sometimes he only strikes out a few while racking up whiffs. Goofy stuff, man. The matchup yesterday was with the strikeout-happy Mariners, so that has something to do with it. I won’t be able to predict Burnes’ strikeout outputs well moving forward, but in this case, it doesn’t matter. If you have Burnes, you start him every time, obviously.
Chris Paddack
8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB, 14% SwStr%, 28% Ball%
This is what can happen when you don’t give up a .450 BABIP! Paddack was excellent in that start, and he gave up two runs almost immediately - so he essentially threw 7+ consecutive shutout innings against the Guardians.
His season marks:
47 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 26.6% K%, 4.9% BB%, 1.15 HR/9
12.7% SwStr%, 46.3% Strike%, 33.7% Ball%, .350 BABIP
But he hasn’t gotten there in anything resembling a consistent fashion:
Overall the 16.6% K-BB% puts him in the 12-team conversation, but it’s far from excellent. He has been better in his last five starts with a 21.6% K-BB% and a 14.6% SwStr%.
I think what we have here is a guy that is going to be about a 60th-percentile starter over the full season sample. The 56% Strike% on the four-seamer shows a pitch that is a great foundation piece, but there just isn’t a ton of stuff to love behind it:
I think the floor is fine. Pitchers with good fastballs and low ball rates typically won’t have too many disastrous outings, but I think the ceiling is low here since he doesn’t have the ability to get a ton of whiffs with any individual pitch. He gets the Rangers next, which probably isn’t a good spot, but if you’re in a 12-teamer or deeper, I think it’s a fine idea to pick him up and see what happens with him.
Brady Singer
We now have a solid 3.29 SIERA on Singer. The ERA is 2.70, so he’s over-performing on that, but there’s nothing wrong with a 3.29 SIERA. That’s the 19th-best SIERA in the league for SPs with 7+ starts.
The K% on the season is now a strong 26.1% K% and the walk rate is good at 7.3%. The difference-maker here is probably the ground ball rate () which has led to just a 0.79 HR/9. I think he can sustain a very low HR/9 given the home park and the ground balls, so Singer is a useful enough pitcher.
The one thing that could send him down the ladder is the lack of whiffs. He has a 10.7% SwStr% this year and almost all of them come on the slider:
He has long been a guy that has one of the highest called strike rates in the league, and there is some legitimate skill in that stat, so it’s something we can expect to continue.
That said, I don’t think a 26% K% is realistic for the guy long-term. Seeing Lugo and Wacha down there below the line makes you wonder if the Royals have figured something tricky out, but the explanation probably has nothing to do with the team and just with the fact that those three guys are established control pitchers.
If we look at all pitchers in the league this year with a SwStr% between 10% and 11%, the aggregate K% is 20%. So Wacha is right on track with that, but Lugo is beating it by three points and Singer is absolutely crushing it by six points.
I wouldn’t be comfortable starting Singer on ay given day, but I don’t think I could rank him below SP60 or something, which makes him a 12-team pitcher pretty comfortably.
Alek Manoah
7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 10.7% SwStr%, 52.4% Strike%, 33% Ball%
Oh boy! Manoah now has thrown 14 shutout innings in his last two starts with 13 strikeouts and two walks. Here are his game logs, including the minor league work:
So he posted an 8.69 ERA in the minors with a 17.5% K-BB%, and then came up to the Majors and has a 3.00 ERA with a 17.3% K-BB%. Weird stuff.
The pitch mix:
Throwing a lot of sliders. I wouldn’t call it wise to lead your pitch mix with a 43% Strike% pitch, but the sinker and four-seamer are right there with it so it’s a pretty much evenly-distributed three-pitch mix with the changeup available.
He doesn’t have a great fastball, but neither have been terrible yet. It’s all about command for Manoah. I don’t think he’s going to go out and rack up 20 whiffs at any point, but if he can command those three pitches he still has good enough stuff to survive.
Do I want to roll those dice for fantasy purposes? No! Am I boldly proclaiming that he’s going to go out and get torched for the rest of the season, also no!
It’s a big shoulder shrug from me on Manoah.
Offense
It seems as though offense is down this year:
2024: .240/.312/.387, .698 OPS
2023: .248/.320/.414, .734 OPS
But it’s not right to compare 2024 to 2023 at this point since we haven’t gotten to those very hot temperature months. But let’s take a look at just March-May stats from the last several years:
2024: .240 AVG, .387 SLG, 7.7% Brl%, 88.1 EV, 380.5 foot avg barrel distance
2023: .248 AVG, .409 SLG, 8.2% Brl%, 88.3 EV, 383.2 foot avg barrel distance
2022: .240 AVG, .386 SLG, 7.7 Brl%, 87.8 EV, 381.4 foot avg barrel distance
2021: .236 AVG, .394 SLG, 8.2% Brl%, 88.0 EV, 383.5 foot avg barrel distance
2019: .249 AVG, .426 SLG, 7.7% Brl%, 86.5 EV, 387.7 foot avg barrel distance
So we know that the balls were different in 2019, and ever since then there have been theories and wonders about if they’re still changing the baseballs. The five-year low in average distance traveled for a barrel does raise some eyebrows, but I can’t say I have anywhere near enough data (or even intelligence in physics) to make any actual claims here.
It could be random, it could be a slight change in the way they’re calculating distance in the algorithm, or many other possible explanations.
That will do it, felt good to get back into some more slow and thought-out baseball analysis. My work certainly suffers when I’m pushed for time. Enjoy the rest of the notes.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene
2. Landon Knack
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Carlos Rodon
5. Yu Darvish
6. Nick Pivetta
7. Chris Paddack
8. Aaron Nola
9. Brady Singer
10. Sean Manaea
11. Alek Manoah
12. JP Sears
13. Matthew Liberatore
14. Tanner Bibee
15. Chris Flexen
16. Michael Lorenzen
17. George Kirby
18. Jose Soriano
19. Spencer Arrighetti
20. Mitch Keller
21. Trevor Williams
22. Jordan Hicks
23. Jordan Montgomery
24. Jameson Taillon
25. Bryce Elder
26. Colin Rea
27. Dakota Hudson
28. Sixto Sanchez
29. Aaron Civale
30. Matt Manning
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish (vs. ATL): 35.95 Points
2. Corbin Burnes (vs. SEA): 32.7 Points
3. Alek Manoah (vs. TB): 32.55 Points
4. Nick Pivetta (vs. STL): 30.9 Points
5. Brady Singer (vs. OAK): 29.3 Points
6. Tanner Bibee (vs. MIN): 26.75 Points
7. Jose Soriano (vs. TEX): 25.06 Points
8. Chris Paddack (vs. CLE): 24.2 Points
9. Aaron Nola (vs. WSH): 22.75 Points
10. Hunter Greene (vs. LAD): 22.64 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 23 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
2. Hunter Greene (CIN): 22 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
3. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 19 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
5. Ray Kerr (ATL): 14 Whiffs (64 Pitches)
6. Chris Paddack (MIN): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
7. Yu Darvish (SD): 14 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
8. Landon Knack (LAD): 13 Whiffs (64 Pitches)
9. Sean Manaea (NYM): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Brady Singer (KC): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish (SD): 57.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
2. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 55.6 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
3. Ray Kerr (ATL): 54.7 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
4. Hunter Greene (CIN): 54.3 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
5. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 54.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
6. Sean Manaea (NYM): 53.7 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
7. Brady Singer (KC): 52.8 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
8. Alek Manoah (TOR): 52.4 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
9. Chris Paddack (MIN): 51.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
10. Chris Flexen (CWS): 50.6 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
11. Landon Knack (LAD): 48.4 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%
12. JP Sears (OAK): 47.7 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
13. Michael Lorenzen (TEX): 47.6 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
14. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 47.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
15. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 46.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta: 72 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Jose Soriano: 93 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.04 POUT
3. Chris Paddack: 100 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.17 POUT
4. Tanner Bibee: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
5. Landon Knack: 64 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.57 POUT
6. Mitch Keller: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
7. George Kirby: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
8. Yu Darvish: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
9. Jordan Hicks: 72 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.8 POUT
10. Alek Manoah: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nick Robertson's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 87.4
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (35 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 87.3
Aaron Civale's ST velo (14 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 82.3
Michael Lorenzen's FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.1
Jordan Montgomery's SI velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.5
Dakota Hudson's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.1
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.6
JP Sears's FF velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.2
JP Sears's ST velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.6
Brady Singer's SL velo (44 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.9
Jordan Montgomery's FF velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.2
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.8
JP Sears's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 79.0
Jordan Hicks's FS velo (20 pitches) DOWN -4.3mph to 80.6
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (11 pitches) DOWN -6.5mph to 78.1
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (36 pitches) DOWN -6.9mph to 91.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's SI usage (32.3%) up 12.6 points
Aaron Nola's CU usage (41.6%) up 10.3 points
Carlos Rodon's CH usage (18.2%) up 13.2 points
Chris Flexen's CU usage (19.0%) up 13.9 points
George Kirby's SI usage (39.2%) up 17.5 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (27.8%) up 18.0 points
Jordan Montgomery's CU usage (34.8%) up 11.4 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (48.4%) up 18.1 points
Jose Soriano's FS usage (17.2%) up 13.1 points
Landon Knack's CU usage (21.9%) up 10.3 points
Matt Manning's ST usage (32.6%) up 24.6 points
Matthew Liberatore's SL usage (40.0%) up 25.5 points
Matthew Liberatore's CH usage (17.1%) up 10.1 points
Michael Lorenzen's FC usage (13.6%) up 12.0 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (38.6%) up 10.2 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (23.6%) up 14.4 points
Nick Robertson's ST usage (13.8%) up 10.1 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (52.6%) up 40.6 points
Trevor Williams's ST usage (23.7%) up 17.6 points
Yu Darvish's SL usage (32.3%) up 13.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea Sinker: +20.3%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +17.9%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -17.8%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -17.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.9%
Pablo Lopez 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Joe Ross Sinker: -13.3%
Erick Fedde Sweeper: -13.1%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +13.0%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +12.7%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: +12.3%
Cole Ragans Cutter: -12.3%
Jordan Montgomery Sinker: -12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 96 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 90 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
Chris Paddack - 102 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 84 TBF, 31.4% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 98 TBF, 31.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 31.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Gil - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 90 TBF, 28.9% K%
Yu Darvish - 84 TBF, 28.6% K%
Brady Singer - 95 TBF, 28.4% K%
Hunter Brown - 86 TBF, 27.9% K%
Cole Ragans - 99 TBF, 27.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 31.3% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 84 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 95 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 90 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
Clarke Schmidt - 96 TBF, 21.9% K-BB%
Chris Paddack - 102 TBF, 21.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jose Soriano - 94 TBF, 70.6% GB%
Max Fried - 96 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 63.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 91 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 102 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Javier Assad - 88 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Luis Severino - 103 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 51.0% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 103 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Chris Sale - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 1.4 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Cooper Criswell - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.9 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 83 TBF, 36.1 K%, 4.8 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 94 TBF, 38.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.5 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 7.1 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Seth Lugo - 105 TBF, 33.3 K%, 3.8 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 35.2 K%, 2.8 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 5.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Yu Darvish - 84 TBF, 28.6 K%, 3.6 BB%, 45.6% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Ryne Nelson: 9.88 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
Peter Lambert: 10.8 ERA, 5.02 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 9.39 ERA, 4.6 SIERA
Kyle Hendricks: 7.9 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
Keaton Winn: 8.41 ERA, 4.12 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 8.46 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 8.48 ERA, 4.46 SIERA
Paul Blackburn: 7.71 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Adrian Houser: 9.87 ERA, 6.52 SIERA
Joe Musgrove: 6.48 ERA, 3.3 SIERA
Luckiest
Josh Winckowski: 2.13 ERA, 5.98 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 1.84 ERA, 5.34 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.76 ERA, 5.02 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.14 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 0.65 ERA, 3.66 SIERA
Bryse Wilson: 2.39 ERA, 5.21 SIERA
Yu Darvish: 0.0 ERA, 2.79 SIERA
James Paxton: 2.86 ERA, 5.47 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 2.28 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Alec Marsh: 1.23 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
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