MLB Daily Notes - May 23rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Back in the saddle! It’s a great feeling just getting back to where you’re supposed to be. Immediately upon my return my three children all ran into my arms screaming “daddy we missed you so much oh my goodness we can’t live without you you’re so strong and kind and virtuous never leave again!”. My wife nearly fainted at the site of my stepping out of the car. A glorious return, never let the truth ruin a good story.
Pitcher Review
You know who has been astounding lately? Jesus Luzardo. He had an elite start to the year on Opening Day and then things went south for awhile ending in an IL stint that looked really bad. But he came back quickly and has pitched marvelously since the return.
First 5: 26 IP, 27 K, 13 BB, 6.57 ERA
Last 3: 19.2 IP, 1 K, 1 BB, 0.91 ERA
The stuff has never been in question with Luzardo, it is always about the command.
Over these last three he has a 30% Ball% and an 18.7% SwStr%, fantastic marks. Last year in his breakout year he posted a 15.2% SwStr% and a 35.7% Ball%, and if he can replicate that again this year it should be a good year provided health. Luzardo was drafted as a top-20 SP, and that was looking pretty bad early on but he’s pitching like that over the last three weeks for sure.
Max Fried
9 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 17.1% SwStr%, 48.6% Strike%, 31.4% Ball%
That’s his second complete game this year and his ERA is down to 3.38 now with a 1.06 WHIP. The K% of 20.4% is unimpressive and the BB% is way higher than usual at 8.5%, so that’s a bit strange. If we take out those early starts and just look at May:
4 GS, 2.63 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 21.7% K%, 8.5% BB%, 0.66 HR/9
So it doesn’t even get much better on the K-BB% front. Fried is one of those guys that has had consistent success without a ton of strikeouts, so you shouldn’t be all that worried about the low K% this year, but it is down five full points from last year while the walk rate is up three points, so that’s at least something to watch.
Michael King
6.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, 13% SwStr%, 32.6% Ball%
The Michael King experience continues, he put together a somewhat crappy quality start in Cincinnati.
The 4.28 ERA and 1.31 WHIP for the year are bad, and the 12.4% SwStr% and 36.2% Ball% are pretty mediocre as well. It’s really not what people were hoping for in King’s first season as a starter after that breakout performance last year with the Yankees.
I’d say he’s a fringe 12-team pitcher.
Justin Steele
6.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 K, 1 BB
It hasn’t been a good start to the year for Steele who has dealt with injuries between five starts.
5 GS, 25.1 IP, 6.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 21.3% K%, 5.6% BB%, 48.5% Strike%, 9.7% SwStr%
He has been Fried-like over the last few seasons, just continually putting up great box score starts without the great underlying numbers. Last year he went for an improved 24.5% K% and 5.0% BB%, but early on this year the K% is down to 21.3% and the SwStr% is not redeeming at 9.7%. I wouldn’t feel great about starting Steele right now, but I still think you have to do it while you’re just hoping he’s still shaking off the rust from the weird start to the season he’s had.
Triston McKenzie
5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB
We should just focus on the season long numbers for McKenzie at this point, but here’s the plot:
So things were looking really awful at first, and then pretty good in the middle, and then pretty bad again lately. For the season:
9.2% SwStr%, 39.7% Ball%, 20.3% K%, 13.5% BB%
You just can’t start the guy in my opinion unless we get another extended run like the one he had in the middle there in late April.
Hunter Brown
6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 3 BB
He’s been unlucky for sure, but he’s also just not been very good. He got it done last night for his team, but the 3:3 K:BB is not what you want to see.
April: 6 GS, 23 IP, 9.78 ERA, 2.22 WHIP, 20.9% K%, 12.2% BB%, 8.7% K-BB%
May: 3 GS, 20.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 23.0% K%, 11.5% BB%, 11.5% K-BB%
Better in May, but the walks are still a problem and the K% is nowhere near high enough to offset it. I think you can use Brown in 15-teamers, but nothing less.
Hitter Review
Nolan Schanuel
Someone wrote me about Nolan Schanuel, so let’s take a look at him:
181 PA, .244/.309/.356, .666 OPS, 3.0% Brl%, 16% K%, 8.3% BB%, 86% Contact%
Schanuel got to the Major Leagues extremely fast, as you might remember, and he’s currently just 22 years old. For his first 300-ish PAs in the Majors, he has just six homers, but is a good contact hitter at 84% Contact% and a 15% K%.
We can now say that he has one of the slowest swings in the league at 66.93 on average (when filtering out bunts and stuff). If you’re going to be a light swinger, you really want to hit a ton of line drives, and Schanuel hasn’t done that with a 52% GB%.
Unless a player is stealing a ton of bags, you want them to be hitting the ball hard to generate fantasy value. A guy like Luis Arraez can get to fantasy value with the batting average given his elite ability to hit line drives, but Schanuel hasn’t shown that yet. With the age, there’s a lot of room for growth and he will most likely add a significant amount of power moving forward, but for right now I just don’t see him as a useful fantasy player in 2024.
Orioles First Base Situation
I also got separate questions about Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn. This question is basically about playing time. If we look at May, the Orioles have played 18 games, Mountcastle has played 15 of them and O’Hearn has played 13 of them. O’Hearn has started all 13 times against righties, Mountcastle has started 10 of those. Mountcastle has started all five against lefties, O’Hearn has not made a single start against lefties.
So Mountcastle plays all the time against lefties and like two-thirds of the time against righties, and O’Hearn is in a strict platoon. So if you’re in a shallow league where you’re looking for everyday players, neither guy is for you. As for their season stats:
O’Hearn: 123 PA, .286/.350/.491, 6 HR, 11.8% Brl%, 8% K%, .417 xwOBA
Mounty: 173 PA, .255/.295/.447, 6 HR, 8.9% Brl%, 22.5 K%, .331 xwOBA
O’Hearn has been better on the per-PA basis, but Mountcastle plays more since he can get starts against righties.
There has been a bit of a downturn for Mountcastle lately, being benched in three of their last six games against righties with Kyle Stowers and Ramon Urias stealing some starts there, so maybe things will get worse on the playing time front, especially if they want to give Stowers further looks and whatnot.
In a 15-team daily changes league, I would roster them both. O’Hearn especially is a nice fantasy bat if you can bench him those days they’re up against lefties, but for a 12-team weekly lineup league I think you just leave them both on the waiver wire.
Some sneaky roto hitters showing up high on the last 30 days player rater:
Brent Rooker #8
Bryson Stott #9
Jurickson Profar #11
Jo Adell #15
Maikel Garcia #19
Eddie Rosario #20
Thairo Estrada #25
Dylan Moore #28
Max Kepler #35
Mike Tauchman #37
Michael Massey #40
Zach Neto #41
Alec Burleson #42
And now I have to get going!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jesus Luzardo
2. Tyler Glasnow
3. Max Fried
4. Cole Ragans
5. Nestor Cortes
6. Austin Gomber
7. Jared Jones
8. Mitch Spence
9. Blake Snell
10. Michael King
11. Tarik Skubal
12. Tyler Anderson
13. Freddy Peralta
14. Dane Dunning
15. Jake Irvin
16. Hunter Brown
17. Bryce Miller
18. Jose Quintana
19. Justin Steele
20. Brayan Bello
21. Chris Bassitt
22. Simeon Woods Richardson
23. Triston McKenzie
24. Nick Nastrini
25. Ryan Pepiot
26. Taijuan Walker
27. John Means
28. Kyle Gibson
29. Nick Martinez
30. Brandon Hughes
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (vs. DET): 39.1 Points
2. Max Fried (vs. CHC): 38.45 Points
3. Jesus Luzardo (vs. MIL): 28.2 Points
4. Lance Lynn (vs. BAL): 26.3 Points
5. Austin Gomber (vs. OAK): 25.0 Points
6. Freddy Peralta (vs. MIA): 24.75 Points
7. Nestor Cortes (vs. SEA): 23.65 Points
8. Chris Bassitt (vs. CWS): 23.55 Points
9. Tyler Anderson (vs. HOU): 23.2 Points
10. Michael King (vs. CIN): 21.41 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Fried (ATL): 18 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 17 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 17 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
4. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 16 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Jared Jones (PIT): 16 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Cole Ragans (KC): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
7. Blake Snell (SF): 15 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
8. Tarik Skubal (DET): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
10. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (KC): 57.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
2. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 53.6 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
3. Mitch Spence (OAK): 51.4 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
4. Tarik Skubal (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 50.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
6. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 49.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
7. Austin Gomber (COL): 48.9 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%
8. Jake Irvin (WSH): 48.8 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
9. Max Fried (ATL): 48.6 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
10. Cole Irvin (BAL): 48.2 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
11. Michael Soroka (CWS): 48.1 Strike%, 40.7 Ball%
12. Michael King (SD): 47.8 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
13. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 46.5 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
14. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 45.8 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
15. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 45.3 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Austin Gomber: 90 Pitches, 24 Outs, 3.75 POUT
2. Max Fried: 105 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.89 POUT
3. Jose Quintana: 70 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.89 POUT
4. Tyler Anderson: 95 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.13 POUT
5. Bryce Miller: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT
6. Jesus Luzardo: 100 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.35 POUT
7. Jake Irvin: 84 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.42 POUT
8. Michael King: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
9. Justin Steele: 93 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.89 POUT
10. Freddy Peralta: 98 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.9 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryne Nelson's FC velo (23 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 90.1
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 90.3
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (36 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.7
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (11 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 78.7
Nestor Cortes's FF velo (38 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.1
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.5
John Means's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.9
Taijuan Walker's FS velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.3
Cole Ragans's CH velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.7
Triston McKenzie's FF velo (52 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.7
John Means's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.5
Jesus Luzardo's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.4
Jesus Luzardo's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 94.1
Jesus Luzardo's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 85.5
John Means's FF velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 88.6
Jesus Luzardo's SI velo (10 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 92.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cole Ragans's FF usage (53.0%) up 12.7 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (16.7%) up 15.1 points
Jake Irvin's FC usage (15.5%) up 11.4 points
Michael King's CH usage (35.9%) up 17.4 points
Michael Soroka's FF usage (42.6%) up 14.1 points
Nick Martinez's FC usage (28.8%) up 10.6 points
Ryan Pepiot's FF usage (66.7%) up 14.4 points
Ryne Nelson's FC usage (26.7%) up 10.5 points
Taijuan Walker's FC usage (31.4%) up 11.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea Sinker: +20.3%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +17.9%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -17.8%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -17.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Javier Assad Sinker: +15.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.9%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.4%
Jake Irvin Curveball: +14.4%
Trevor Rogers Slider: +13.8%
Pablo Lopez 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +13.0%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +12.7%
Kutter Crawford 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%
Joe Ryan Split-Finger: +12.4%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: +12.3%
Jordan Montgomery Sinker: -12.2%
Hunter Brown Cutter: -12.1%
Alec Marsh 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Seth Lugo - 80 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 94 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Michael King - 101 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 100 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Jared Jones - 99 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 36.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 35.1% K%
Seth Lugo - 80 TBF, 33.8% K%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 31.4% K%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Shota Imanaga - 77 TBF, 29.9% K%
Cooper Criswell - 78 TBF, 29.5% K%
Clarke Schmidt - 94 TBF, 28.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 80 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Clarke Schmidt - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 95 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 100 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jose Soriano - 94 TBF, 70.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 103 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 80 TBF, 63.2% GB%
Max Fried - 106 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Reese Olson - 80 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Cal Quantrill - 95 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Tanner Houck - 101 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Luis Severino - 76 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 100 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Cal Quantrill - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 36.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Cooper Criswell - 78 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.7 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 4.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.5 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 52 TBF, 32.7 K%, 1.9 BB%, 64.7% GB%
Seth Lugo - 80 TBF, 33.8 K%, 2.5 BB%, 45.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 36.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.4% GB%
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