MLB Daily Notes - May 25th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
The day after I revisit the player prop sheet stuff, it completely stops working. DraftKings has this API where you can get all the lines in JSON format, and for like a year now it’s worked amazingly well, but just recently now everything won’t work, and I have no idea why. The data is still there in the same place, and I can get to it manually myself no problem, but my Python notebook can’t access it. It must have something to do with network access or something of that sort, I’m trying my best to figure it out or find a different source, but I doubt I pull it off this weekend.
But now I’m finding something. An IPv6 request doesn’t work but an IPv4 request does!
But I don’t know where to go from there and I really can’t sit here all morning trying to figure it out. This is a bummer, but if anybody else knows a good source of grabbing player prop lines and odds please let me know.
Braxton Garrett
9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 K, 0 BB, 11.6% SwStr%
Talk about a bounce-back, the old complete game shutout from Garrett on 95 pitches. I hope you didn’t bench him. Garrett has a 19.3% K-BB% and 51% GB% over the last two seasons, so he’s not an ace-type pitcher but he is quite good. The command is excellent and he has enough stuff to get strikeouts, but he’s probably more of a 25-27% K% guy at best.
MacKenzie Gore
7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K, 1 BB, 17.3% SwStr%
Great stuff from Gore who capitalized on the Mariners’ 28% team strikeout rate. That’s insane. I really thought the Mariners would turn into a league-average-ish matchup as we got further into the season, but they continue to just get crushed. Here are their regulars and each guy’s strikeout rate.
I did not expect the marks to be that high on Rodriguez, France, or Polanco, but everybody else has pretty believable marks. Continue to attack the Mariners. That isn’t to take anything away from Gore, who really is having a breakout season. The K-BB% is at 20% with a 14.6% SwStr% and 35.6% Ball%. The home runs have not been an issue for him this year, a big change, allowing a homer every 40 PAs and lowering that barrel rate to 7.7%.
Gore is a great example of the strategy to boost pitchers who gave up very high barrel rates the previous year. Barrel rates are not sticky, so anybody that gave up a bunch of barrels and homers the previous year will very likely improve on that the following year. Good projection systems cook this in properly, but it’s good to be conscious of who those types are (the reverse is true as well).
Justin Verlander
6 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 15.2% SwStr%, 27.3% Ball%
He went right after the Athletics and profite. The A’s team OPS is down to .664 over the last two weeks and they’re back in the bottom-half of the league for the season at .682. They have the third-worst team batting average at .232 and they strike out a lot at 26%. If you can avoid the long ball against them, you’ll be just fine.
Verlander is now at a 21% K% and 8.4% BB%, pretty concerning numbers, and he’s still not generating many whiffs at 11.1%. He’s not the same guy (took him long enough), but the command is still there enough to have plenty of success. But you’ll run into some bad outings with him now when the command isn’t pristine, as we’ve seen a couple of times this season aleady.
George Kirby
6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB
Anybody getting annoyed with this guy yet? That start hurt you in everything, and he’s had a handful of pretty crappy starts now:
This is what you get when you cannot consistently deliver strikeouts. Depending on soft contact and your fields making out is risky business. The 12.3% SwStr% and 22% K% are right at the league averages. He walks batters a ridiculous 2% of the time, so that helps limit the damage when hits do occur, but I would say it’s time for Kirby to go for more strikeouts. If he’s this good at throwing the ball where he wants, he could easily just intentionally work out of the strike zone a bit more to get a few extra chases and whiffs which would lead to strikeouts. He can probably just go for a 6% BB% and raise the K% to 26-27% with how good his stuff is. So that’s my advice to you, George.
Christian Scott
6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 5.3% SwStr%, 40.4% Strike%, 42.6% Ball%
This was a really bad start by all of the numbers I constantly cite here, and that’s a concern. The Giants are a tough team to strikeout (21%), and they’re in the best-10 in chase rate as well, but I’m sure Scott didn’t actually want to throw this many balls with so few whiffs.
So for the season now it’s a 12.9% SwStr% and 36.4% Ball%, and to his credit he did not give up much hard contact at all here. He managed well and ended up with a pretty good box score line, but you can see the SwStr% has gotten worse every outing so far, and a couple more starts without whiffs is going to make me bail on the guy.
The numbers are still fine, but we’ll watch closely moving forward. He is nowhere near the league leaders in terms of raw stuff, so he has a steeper hill to climb to get to the level of consistently getting big league hitters out.
Carlos Rodon
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 K, 3 BB
The rollercoaster ride continues.
The was a season-low two strikeouts for him after he had turned that around for awhile, striking out at least six in five straight starts. But the result here was perfectly fine. For the year he’s been average across the board in SwStr%, Strike%, and Ball%, but with a very low GB%.
You can live with an average pitcher on a very good team, but I still would think there’s someone in your league that views Rodon as better than average, so there’s a trade opportunity there.
Andrew Vaughn
He hasn’t been good or anything but at least he’s gotten out of that pitiful start to the year.
All four of his homers this year have come in the last two weeks and he’s slashing .224/.296/.510 over that time, so it’s empty power, but at least it’s better than before when he was just empty. If you remember back to 2019-2021, this guy was one of the top hitting prospects in the league, and that hasn’t gone anywhere to this point and now he’s 26, so we’re running out of time. But Vaughn can and will be better than what he showed you in April, and he still should be rostered in like 16-team leagues.
Jo Adell
He rocked his 10th homer of the year and the line is now:
.234/.299/.516, 10 HR, 16.1% Brl%, 25.7% K%, 71.4% Cont%
He does not hit many ground balls and he hits the ball hard, all he had to do was lower the K% under 30%, and he’s finally done that. It’s still just 144 PAs, so things could go south in a hurry, but Adell should be started in pretty much every league right now.
That will do it for today.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Shawn Armstrong
2. MacKenzie Gore
3. Justin Verlander
4. Ray Kerr
5. Corbin Burnes
6. Bailey Ober
7. Jared Koenig
8. Braxton Garrett
9. Cristopher Sanchez
10. Alek Manoah
11. Kyle Harrison
12. George Kirby
13. Kutter Crawford
14. Kenta Maeda
15. Graham Ashcraft
16. Carlos Rodon
17. Ty Blach
18. James Paxton
19. Jose Urena
20. Bailey Falter
21. Patrick Sandoval
22. Logan Allen
23. Chris Flexen
24. Zac Gallen
25. Yu Darvish
26. Seth Lugo
27. Ross Stripling
28. Christian Scott
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Braxton Garrett (vs. ARI): 33.85 Points
2. MacKenzie Gore (vs. SEA): 30.75 Points
3. Justin Verlander (vs. OAK): 28.7 Points
4. Bryse Wilson (vs. BOS): 21.79 Points
5. Seth Lugo (vs. TB): 20.15 Points
6. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. LAA): 19.36 Points
7. Bailey Falter (vs. ATL): 18.29 Points
8. Carlos Rodon (vs. SD): 17.9 Points
9. Bailey Ober (vs. TEX): 17.05 Points
10. Christian Scott (vs. SF): 15.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Bailey Ober (MIN): 16 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
3. Justin Verlander (HOU): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 14 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Darius Vines (ATL): 13 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
6. Ray Kerr (ATL): 13 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
7. Kyle Harrison (SF): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
8. Alek Manoah (TOR): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
9. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 11 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
10. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Justin Verlander (HOU): 54.5 Strike%, 27.3 Ball%
2. Darius Vines (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
3. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 49.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
4. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 48.9 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
5. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 48.4 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
6. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 47.2 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
7. Alek Manoah (TOR): 46.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
8. Tyler Alexander (TB): 46.2 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
9. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 46.2 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
10. Kyle Harrison (SF): 45.9 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
11. Ray Kerr (ATL): 45.8 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
12. Logan Allen (CLE): 45.5 Strike%, 38.4 Ball%
13. Bailey Falter (PIT): 45.4 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
14. Ty Blach (COL): 44.9 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%
15. Jose Urena (TEX): 44.2 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Braxton Garrett: 95 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.52 POUT
2. Ty Blach: 78 Pitches, 20 Outs, 3.9 POUT
3. Bailey Falter: 97 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.41 POUT
4. George Kirby: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
5. MacKenzie Gore: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
6. Yu Darvish: 81 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.76 POUT
7. Zac Gallen: 96 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.8 POUT
8. Seth Lugo: 104 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.95 POUT
9. Bryse Wilson: 80 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Corbin Burnes: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (36 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 85.9
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (35 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 95.3
Corbin Burnes's SI velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 97.2
MacKenzie Gore's FF velo (54 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 96.9
Chris Flexen's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.2
Chris Flexen's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 78.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bryse Wilson's FC usage (46.2%) up 11.8 points
Chase Anderson's FC usage (40.0%) up 11.7 points
Christian Scott's FF usage (68.1%) up 16.3 points
Cristopher Sanchez's CH usage (43.4%) up 10.1 points
Darius Vines's SL usage (29.5%) up 18.6 points
George Kirby's FS usage (23.2%) up 15.8 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (33.7%) up 20.5 points
Jose Urena's SI usage (48.4%) up 16.1 points
Kenta Maeda's CH usage (24.3%) up 23.1 points
Logan Allen's CH usage (31.3%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (37.3%) up 11.3 points
Patrick Sandoval's ST usage (14.5%) up 11.9 points
Ray Kerr's FS usage (15.3%) up 13.5 points
Ross Stripling's FF usage (42.6%) up 14.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea Sinker: +20.3%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +18.5%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -17.2%
Javier Assad Sinker: +16.3%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -15.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -15.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.4%
Jake Irvin Curveball: +14.4%
Trevor Rogers Slider: +14.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.2%
Pablo Lopez 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.0%
Frankie Montas Slider: +12.8%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +12.7%
Logan Allen Changeup: +12.6%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: -12.6%
Joe Ryan Split-Finger: +12.4%
Hunter Brown Cutter: -12.1%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 42.6% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 88 TBF, 39.7% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 94 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Michael King - 101 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 108 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 36.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Kevin Gausman - 88 TBF, 34.1% K%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Gil - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 31.4% K%
Bailey Ober - 83 TBF, 31.3% K%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Clarke Schmidt - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 108 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 103 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 77 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Max Fried - 106 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 75 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 104 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Luis Severino - 76 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 76 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 98 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Javier Assad - 92 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 36.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Cooper Criswell - 78 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.7 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.2 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Paul Skenes - 62 TBF, 33.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 36.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.4% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Keaton Winn: 11.3 ERA, 4.79 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 11.33 ERA, 5.08 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 10.21 ERA, 4.12 SIERA
Paul Blackburn: 8.4 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 8.25 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
Bryce Elder: 9.01 ERA, 5.07 SIERA
Matthew Liberatore: 7.63 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 8.85 ERA, 5.26 SIERA
Mason Black: 8.79 ERA, 5.45 SIERA
Joe Musgrove: 6.39 ERA, 3.15 SIERA
Luckiest
Grayson Rodriguez: 1.08 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.42 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Alex Wood: 2.04 ERA, 4.85 SIERA
Bryse Wilson: 2.42 ERA, 5.22 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.93 ERA, 5.71 SIERA
Trevor Williams: 1.85 ERA, 4.57 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.6 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Reese Olson: 0.94 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 2.45 ERA, 4.88 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 0.57 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Seth Lugo - +2.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Jose Urena - +2.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.6% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Chris Sale - +3.0% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +3.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Taj Bradley - +3.1% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.7% CSW%, -6.5 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +3.9% CSW%, -6.8 BB%
Bryan Woo - +3.5% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Cole Irvin - +2.8% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +4.4% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Brad Keller - +2.0% CSW%, -7.5 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
J.D. Martinez (NYM) 5 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jo Adell (LAA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jorge Soler (SF) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Juan Soto (NYY) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mookie Betts (LAD) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Korey Lee, Yesterday: 110.0 Previous High: 109.8
Miguel Andujar, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 110.5
Hardest Hit Balls
Hunter Goodman (COL) - 114.7mph - double
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 113.9mph - single
Manny Machado (SD) - 112.2mph - single
Riley Greene (DET) - 112.1mph - double
William Contreras (MIL) - 111.8mph - home_run
Logan O'Hoppe (LAA) - 111.4mph - nan
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.2mph - fielders_choice
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) - 110.9mph - nan
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 110.9mph - home_run
Miguel Andujar (OAK) - 110.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jesus Sanchez - 63 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, 0.138 Diff
Vaughn Grissom - 62 PA, 0.155 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
Christopher Morel - 72 PA, 0.32 wOBA, 0.438 xwOBA, 0.118 Diff
Jake Burger - 64 PA, 0.146 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Colton Cowser - 61 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 87 PA, 0.258 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 84 PA, 0.269 wOBA, 0.357 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 66 PA, 0.186 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 76 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.428 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Willy Adames - 82 PA, 0.247 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Bottom 10
Jose Ramirez - 80 PA, 0.468 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Michael Massey - 68 PA, 0.392 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Alec Burleson - 60 PA, 0.398 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Luke Raley - 59 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Max Kepler - 61 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Kyle Tucker - 80 PA, 0.507 wOBA, 0.429 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Sal Frelick - 58 PA, 0.34 wOBA, 0.262 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 88 PA, 0.38 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Eddie Rosario - 62 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Ty France - 73 PA, 0.305 wOBA, 0.232 xwOBA, -0.073 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 49 BIP, 27 Brls, 55.1 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 71 PA, 42 BIP, 15 Brls, 35.7 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 54 PA, 36 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.8 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 67 PA, 46 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 60 BIP, 15 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Corey Seager - 74 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 80 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 75 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 65 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
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