MLB Daily Notes - May 26th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
The prop sheet is totally fixed, if you didn’t catch that yesterday. The DraftKins API went from v5 to v6, so I just had to change every “v5” in my code to “v6”, but I had no way to know that until I just guessed that maybe that was what had happened, so good. I made some bets yesterday and profited $2 so I’m pretty thrilled to be alive today.
I’m thrilled to be alive everyday, and especially on Sundays. My wife is just so great and my kids are so fun and cute and smart and good, and my grass is nice.
An excellent wife, who can find her? For her worth is far above jewels. The heart of her husband trusts in her, and he will have no lack of gain.
~ Proverbs 31:10
It’s possible that Solomon wrote that part of Proverbs, and that guy had like 149 wives so you gotta guy take the “do I say and not as I do approach” with a lot of those Old Testament writers. But Christians believe that God divinely inspired the scriptures, so Him being the true author takes the authors somewhat off of the accountability hook. I mean the main characters of the Old Testament were really vile, bad dudes (at least by our standards today, which is a whole other issue). But one of the main themes of the Bible is that no man is good and we are all in desperate need of salvation from God, and God can and does use whoever He wants for His purposes even if those are not the people we would choose in our lack of wisdom.
Tanner Bibee
6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 22% SwStr%, 30.8% Ball%
Seems like Bibee should have had a few more strikeouts than that with the 20 whiffs he recorded. He has been very good lately and has the SIERA down to 3.55 while the ERA is above that at 3.99. The season K-BB% of 18.3% is strong but definitely not where you really want it to be, but you have to be feeling pretty good about Bibee after that slow start.
The fastball isn’t anything special, but it’s good enough, and the slider and changeup are very nice.
Jordan Hicks
5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 8 K, 2 BB, 21.8% SwStr%
Another spike game for Hicks with the strikeouts. That’s just the second time he’es gone above seven strikeouts, and for the year he’s been just a 20% K% pitcher.
He’s mostly gotten it done with ground balls, but it’s good to see he does have the strikeout ability somewhere in there. The SIERA of 3.95 is much worse than his 2.33 ERA, but this was a positive sign. He threw fewer sinkers (45% usage down from 51% and some more splitters (31%) and sweepers (20%). That was probably just because of randomness like hitters faced and counts and whatnot, but the guy probably could get more strikeouts with a lower sinker usage. He should be owned in all leagues deeper than 12 teams I’d say.
Hunter Greene
6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K, 1 BB, 21.5% SwStr%, 23 whiffs
Good start for him and he lowered the ERA to 3.06 on the year now with a 26.7% K% and 9.4% BB%. That’s still a lower K% than expected, but the SwStr% is really strong at 15.5% so I think he should get more strikeouts at some point. It’s pretty crazy to get 23 whiffs and just five strikeouts like he did last night.
The other positive sign is the 35% Ball% and walk rate that is in control, and he’s gotten a few more ground balls this year than before (but still a pretty low 39% GB%).
Dylan Cease
6.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 9 K, 0 BB, 15.9% SwStr%, 30.8% Ball%
One of the recommended prop bets yesterday was Dylan Cease over 2.5 BB for a big pay-out, but he went ahead and posted zero walks with nine strikeouts. The season BB% is now 7.7%, which is incredible for him, and it makes his season K-BB% one of the best in the league at 23.8%.
He gave up four runs, but a 9:0 K:BB is just amazing, Cease is having a better season than I expected and the 3.01 SIERA is sparkling.
SIERA Leaders (10+ GS):
Reynaldo Lopez
6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 10.0% SwStr%
Some of this Lopez luck is starting to go away. He has one of the biggest SIERA-ERA differentials in the league at a 3.99 SIERA and a 1.75 ERA. Under the hood he looks like a pretty average pitcher, so he’s still a good option to sell-high on.
Luis Severino
7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB
The walks were an issue there and he didn’t get many whiffs (9.7% SwStr%), but once again he kept the ball on the ground and put out a very good result. His 4.36 SIERA isn’t terrible but still a good bit above his 3.68 ERA.
Chris Paddack
5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 0 BB
Just got just two whiffs. He’s been one of the least consistent pitchers in the league this year and I still just have no idea how to view him. I would rather not start him than start him, but I still think he’s better than the game currently is viewing him.
That start did drop him under 12% SwStr% and 47% Strike%, so it’s tough to call him an above-average pitcher, but he probably gets there just because he doesn’t walk many hitters and has decent command in the strike zone.
Aaron Judge has now homered 11 times in May and 11 times in his last 84 PAs while hitting .422/.548/1.109 over that time. Just an absurd run he’s on.
Jose Ramirez isn’t far behind with 10 May homers and a 1.007 OPS (okay that actually is pretty far behind Judge in SLG and OBP, but it’s still very good).
Elly De La Cruz leads May in steals (13) but has homered just once this month with a .607 OPS. Whoopsie-daisy! This is what you get from the guy.
Someone asked me about Spencer Torkelson.
209 PA, .207/.278/.330, .607 OPS, 3 HR, 3.5% Brl%, 21.5% K%, 7.7% BB%
It’s good to see the lower strikeout rate, but that’s the end of the good news with him. He was barreling the ball over the place last year, especially in the second half, but that’s just gone. I think Tork is an easy drop in 12-teamers or less, and he’s not far away from a drop in 14-teamers either, he’s crushing you. There’s still the possibility for a big second-half, but 200 PA’s I’d say is enough to call it.
Maybe you replace him with Jose Miranda?
121 PA, .287/.322/.461, .783 OPS, 5.1% Brl%, 14% K%, 3.3% BB%, 81% Cont%
Okay, Miranda probably isn’t a 12-teamer guy, but we should mention him at least. He had a decent 2022 season in the Majors with a .747 OPS but after that just couldn’t stick. Now he’s back with the Twins and playing most days, and he’s taking advantage of it in a short sample at least. My hopes are low, but he could be a Ty France-type hitter.
Nick Gonzales has 14 RBI in 61 PAs now with a .903 OPS after another good game yesterday. He is fourth in the league in RBI since debuting and the .903 OPS is obviously fantastic. The K% is down to 21% and the Brl% is up to 17%! That’s incredible. He’s in really nice territory in May K% vs. Brl%:
Some other standouts there (taking out the obvious studs)
Kerry Carpenter
Andrew McCutchen
JJ Bleday
Vinnie Pasquantino
Carlos Correa
Okay I’ve gotta go do Sunday things, peace out! Talk to you all tomorrow.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jared Koenig
2. Tanner Bibee
3. Hunter Greene
4. Jordan Hicks
5. Mitch Keller
6. Dylan Cease
7. Logan Gilbert
8. Trevor Williams
9. Aaron Nola
10. Jose Soriano
11. Albert Suarez
12. Luis Severino
13. Marcus Stroman
14. Jordan Montgomery
15. Aaron Civale
16. Reese Olson
17. Miles Mikolas
18. Sixto Sanchez
19. Dakota Hudson
20. Walker Buehler
21. Brady Singer
22. Nick Pivetta
23. Reynaldo Lopez
24. Spencer Arrighetti
25. Erick Fedde
26. JP Sears
27. Michael Lorenzen
28. Jameson Taillon
29. Chris Paddack
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Marcus Stroman (vs. SD): 25.1 Points
2. Jordan Hicks (vs. NYM): 22.85 Points
3. Luis Severino (vs. SF): 22.75 Points
4. Reese Olson (vs. TOR): 22.64 Points
5. Erick Fedde (vs. BAL): 22.64 Points
6. Trevor Williams (vs. SEA): 22.25 Points
7. Hunter Greene (vs. LAD): 21.9 Points
8. Mitch Keller (vs. ATL): 21.41 Points
9. Dylan Cease (vs. NYY): 20.21 Points
10. Tanner Bibee (vs. LAA): 19.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene (CIN): 23 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
2. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 20 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
3. Jordan Hicks (SF): 19 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Dylan Cease (SD): 17 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
5. Mitch Keller (PIT): 15 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
6. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
7. Trevor Williams (WSH): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Albert Suarez (BAL): 11 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
9. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 11 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
10. Jose Soriano (LAA): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Civale (TB): 53.5 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
2. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 52.7 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
3. Jose Soriano (LAA): 52.7 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
4. Trevor Williams (WSH): 51.8 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
5. Dylan Cease (SD): 51.4 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
6. Jordan Hicks (SF): 50.6 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%
7. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 50.5 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
8. Albert Suarez (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
9. Walker Buehler (LAD): 49.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
10. Aaron Nola (PHI): 49.5 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
11. Hunter Greene (CIN): 48.6 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
12. Miles Mikolas (STL): 47.6 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
13. Brady Singer (KC): 46.7 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
14. Luis Severino (NYM): 46.6 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
15. Erick Fedde (CWS): 46.6 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. JP Sears: 68 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.78 POUT
2. Colin Rea: 68 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.0 POUT
3. Jose Berrios: 83 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.15 POUT
4. Logan Gilbert: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT
5. Mitch Keller: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
6. Miles Mikolas: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
7. Aaron Civale: 71 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.73 POUT
8. Jordan Montgomery: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT
9. Dakota Hudson: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
10. Chris Paddack: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Miles Mikolas's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 3.9mph to 88.7
Mitch Keller's FC velo (14 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 91.7
Aaron Civale's FC velo (28 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.2
Dylan Cease's SL velo (58 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.1
Dakota Hudson's SI velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.6
Erick Fedde's CH velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.1
JP Sears's ST velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.5
Chris Paddack's FF velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.7
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.2
Chris Paddack's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 76.5
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (39 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 95.0
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 80.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's FC usage (19.4%) up 11.1 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (54.2%) up 14.7 points
JP Sears's ST usage (47.1%) up 22.1 points
JP Sears's SI usage (13.2%) up 10.8 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (31.0%) up 19.7 points
Jordan Montgomery's CU usage (35.1%) up 11.2 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (46.2%) up 13.4 points
Jose Soriano's FS usage (17.6%) up 12.2 points
Logan Gilbert's FC usage (17.9%) up 13.5 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (41.7%) up 33.5 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (16.5%) up 11.6 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (33.0%) up 21.0 points
Michael Lorenzen's SI usage (33.3%) up 14.2 points
Michael Lorenzen's FC usage (24.4%) up 21.0 points
Mitch Keller's SL usage (12.5%) up 12.2 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (20.8%) up 12.4 points
Reese Olson's SI usage (41.9%) up 21.9 points
Reynaldo Lopez's CU usage (15.7%) up 10.7 points
Trevor Williams's ST usage (17.6%) up 10.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Nick Pivetta 4-Seam Fastball: +25.6%
Nick Pivetta Cutter: -20.7%
Sean Manaea Sinker: +20.3%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +18.5%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -17.2%
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -16.6%
Javier Assad Sinker: +16.3%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -15.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -15.1%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +15.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.4%
Jake Irvin Curveball: +14.4%
Trevor Rogers Slider: +14.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.2%
Pablo Lopez 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.0%
Marcus Stroman Sinker: -13.5%
Frankie Montas Slider: +12.8%
Logan Allen Changeup: +12.6%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: -12.6%
Joe Ryan Split-Finger: +12.4%
Spencer Arrighetti Curveball: +12.3%
Hunter Brown Cutter: -12.1%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 42.6% CSW%
Michael King - 79 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 74 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Austin Gomber - 76 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 108 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 36.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Gil - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 31.4% K%
Bailey Ober - 83 TBF, 31.3% K%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Michael King - 79 TBF, 30.4% K%
Shota Imanaga - 77 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Trevor Williams - 77 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 108 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 93 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 77 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 78 TBF, 75.9% GB%
Jose Soriano - 93 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 77 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Max Fried - 106 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 75 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 104 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Reese Olson - 88 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 76 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 90 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 76 TBF, 36.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 74 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Cooper Criswell - 78 TBF, 29.5 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 86 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.7 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.2 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 62 TBF, 33.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 50 TBF, 28.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 61.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Keaton Winn: 11.3 ERA, 4.79 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 11.33 ERA, 5.09 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 10.21 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Paul Blackburn: 8.4 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Bryce Elder: 9.01 ERA, 5.07 SIERA
Matthew Liberatore: 7.63 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 8.85 ERA, 5.26 SIERA
Nick Pivetta: 6.16 ERA, 2.76 SIERA
Mason Black: 8.79 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 7.45 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
Luckiest
Grayson Rodriguez: 1.08 ERA, 4.9 SIERA
Javier Assad: 1.38 ERA, 4.44 SIERA
Reese Olson: 0.77 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.93 ERA, 5.71 SIERA
Trevor Williams: 1.84 ERA, 4.57 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.6 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 2.62 ERA, 5.26 SIERA
Alex Wood: 2.25 ERA, 4.85 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 0.57 ERA, 3.0 SIERA
Jon Gray: 1.67 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Seth Lugo - +2.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.4% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Jose Urena - +2.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.6% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Chris Sale - +3.0% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +3.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Taj Bradley - +3.1% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.7% CSW%, -6.5 BB%
Bryan Woo - +3.5% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Brad Keller - +2.0% CSW%, -7.5 BB%
Tayler Scott - +2.3% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Cole Irvin - +2.8% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brice Turang (MIL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jonathan Aranda (TB) 3 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 113.7mph - home_run
Corey Seager (TEX) - 112.7mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 112.7mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.7mph - double
Hunter Renfroe (KC) - 112.0mph - nan
Gary Sanchez (MIL) - 111.9mph - nan
Brett Baty (NYM) - 111.8mph - home_run
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 110.6mph - home_run
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 110.4mph - field_out
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 109.8mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jesus Sanchez - 61 PA, 0.248 wOBA, 0.387 xwOBA, 0.139 Diff
Christopher Morel - 73 PA, 0.298 wOBA, 0.426 xwOBA, 0.128 Diff
Vaughn Grissom - 62 PA, 0.155 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 77 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.438 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 86 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 65 PA, 0.196 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.502 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Riley Greene - 80 PA, 0.205 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Colton Cowser - 64 PA, 0.289 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff
Yainer Diaz - 64 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Bottom 10
Jose Ramirez - 80 PA, 0.496 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.154 Diff
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 58 PA, 0.328 wOBA, 0.23 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Alec Burleson - 59 PA, 0.436 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Kyle Tucker - 80 PA, 0.514 wOBA, 0.42 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 83 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Luke Raley - 63 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 89 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
Bryce Harper - 76 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
Michael Massey - 64 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Ty France - 72 PA, 0.297 wOBA, 0.222 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 49 BIP, 27 Brls, 55.1 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 72 PA, 43 BIP, 15 Brls, 34.9 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 47 PA, 19 BIP, 6 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 53 PA, 38 BIP, 10 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 58 BIP, 15 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 67 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Corey Seager - 73 PA, 50 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 63 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 83 PA, 65 BIP, 13 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Adolis Garcia - 72 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
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