MLB Daily Notes - May 27th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Paid subs: I have turned Discord notifications back on, so I’ll be back in there to chat and answer questions after I blew you all off for like 10 days. No promises that I’ll stay in there, notifications are annoying, but you can hit me up in there if you want - the link to join is at the very bottom of this page or in the Resource Glossary page.
My three year old son has turned into a real peace-maker in the family. Several times recently he and my five year old daughter have both wanted the same thing, and we’ve given the thing to him. And then my daughter starts having a bit of a fit crying, and after like 30 seconds or so he’ll give in and let her have the thing, totally unprompted. So then we praise him for being super nice, and that makes my daughter mad again because it looks like he’s nicer than she is.
My wife thinks he’s just doing it to get the praise for being nice. That didn’t occur to me, I just figured it was a logical calculation - he didn’t want the thing he got more than he wanted her to stop crying, because crying is annoying. Either way, I’m proud of him. There’s nothing cooler than just not really ever wanting something that bad.
It’s Memorial Day and it is not a 15-game slate of baseball, so I’m really questioning what MLB was doing there. If you’re off work on a Monday and it’s hot outside, there should be at least 15 baseball games happening.
I don’t personally have any direct close ties to anyone who died serving our country. My grandfather fought in World War II, and that guy is still kicking at the age of 98, pretty incredible stuff. I was thinking yesterday that my kids will grow up without anybody in the family having military stories. We had Afghanistan and those other conflicts in the last few decades, but those are obviously not at all like the World Wars and other older conflicts.
Growing up in school in the 90’s, and certainly before that, you heard a lot of stories about the wars since people that were in them were still around, and that bled into the school curriculum and stuff as well. I wonder if now, since those bigger conflicts are further behind in history, that doesn’t affect the overall patriotism of the nation. Peace is optimal, war is terrible, we don’t want war. But the one thing you can say about war is that is does breed patriotism and strong bonds between citizens.
Peace-time petty in-fighting between Americans is much, much preferable to us all being united because half of our young men are over seasons dying. So maybe we should appreciate our petty little political and religious fighting more than we do, it could be a lot worse!
Prop Bets
I’m back into the prop betting mood, man, it’s fun. There were a bunch yesterday that hit that 0.15 threshold, although it was a break-even day.
Here’s the “net profit by day” plot if you had bet every single prop that showed up at any point above a .15 value.
That sums up to a +77.32 profit on 708 bets. You’d be dedicating far too much of your life to my prop sheet to get every single one of those 708 bets, but hey you’d have made some money.
I added the “Pitcher Outs” and the “Hitter Walk” bet types to the tracker yesterday because they hadn’t been there, so the numbers have changed. It turns out that hitter walk props don’t often get to 0.15 value, but when they do - they have smashed so far. And pitcher outs bets have been very bad. If that continues for a bit longer, I think we should remove them entirely. I was pretty sure from the beginning that my model wouldn’t be good at that because outs don’t work in the same fashion as these other types, so if you’re reading this and using my sheet - my advice is do not take those lines.
You can check out the tracker for yourself here, paid subs get access to the prop sheet which updates every 20 minutes as my projections and the lines update.
Here are today’s early recommendations, made free for everybody who has served in the military (if you haven’t served in the military, please close your eyes and scroll past this):
Pitcher Review
Garrett Crochet struck out 11 Orioles with no walks and raised his season K% to 34% and lowered the BB% to 5.6%. Ridiculous stuff, he’s now second in season K-BB% to Flaherty and just continues to get it done.
The fastball velo chart is interesting:
He came real hot out of the gate but then there was some kind of decision to cool it down for a bit there, but then as April ended he said screw it and has been over 97 again. That pitch has been the keystone with that beautiful 54% Strike% and 32% Ball%, and the cutter works beautifully off of it with even better marks.
Just think of the pitching staff you could have drafted after round 10 if you could have seen the future this year
Chris Sale (ADP 152)
Shota Imanaga (ADP 209)
Ranger Suarez (ADP 340)
Jack Flaherty (ADP 366)
Tanner Houck (ADP 423)
Jared Jones (ADP 500)
Garrett Crochet (ADP 519)
Luis Gil (ADP 640)
Logan Webb had a big one, and probably his best of the season.
7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 29.4 DraftKings points
That was his highest point total of the season, and his first time above six strikeouts. For the year he has a really low 8.6% SwStr%. The K% isn’t that bad at 20.3%, but that’s still pretty low. He makes up for it without walking hitters (6.3% BB%) and getting a ton of ground balls (56%).
He is the king of generation the “topped” ball in play. That sentence gives me the opportunity to bring back the Batted Ball Classification Modeling Plot:
This plot shows you the batted ball classification algorithm that MLB has come up with. The green dots are those “topped” balls. 40% of Webb’s batted balls allowed end up in that range. Here’s the BIP type performance for Webb this year:
So while he’s generating those topped balls, the Giants are making outs 85% of the time, and that’s where a bunch of double plays come from as well. Here are the league-wide benchmarks for comparison:
This is a really good way to view balls in play. It’s better than the more simplified GB/LD/FB classes we’re used to, although three is obviously easier to remember and work with than six. Let’s look at the league leader in each category just for fun, looking at pitchers who have allowed at least 150 balls in play so far:
Barrels: Dane Dunning (15%)
Solids: Alec Marsh (11%)
Flares: Kyle Hendricks (34%)
Unders: Justin Verlander (42%)
Topped: Framber Valdez (54%)
Weak: Ranger Suarez (10%)
This gives me a chance to talk about Ranger Suarez again, because he has been one of the most interesting and confusing pitchers of the season. He struck out nine Rockies last night after a rough first couple of innings. He has nine wins, nine, and that’s after not winning last night. The K% is 28.4%, which is weird because of the 11.9% SwStr% which would predict more of a 23% K%. The BB% is 5.9%, which feels a little low as well given the 34.5% Ball%. The ERA is 1.75, which is a run better than his 2.83 SIERA. So he’s been beating expectations everywhere.
The BABIP is .224, and it breaks down like this:
He has generated twice as many weak balls as barrels, which is really impressive and also seemingly pretty lucky. The league average weak rate is 5%, and it’s typically not something a pitcher has a ton of control over. So Suarez’s 10% rate would seem primed for regression. The Phillies are also turning his topped balls into outs 93% of the time, way better than the league average of 83%.
Infield defense matters a bit here, and the Phillies have a good infield,b ut I don’t think .072 is sustainable at all. The lowest average allowed on topped balls last year was Shohei Ohtani at 0.089, and everybody else at least .110. The BABIP will come up for Suarez, the K% will come down (I think), and he might even walk a few more guys. I’d get rid of this guy if I had him.
Reid Detmers went for a big 16.7% SwStr% and nice 53.1% Strike%, but he once again couldn’t turn it into a good start.
5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 8 K, 4 BB
The four walks are surprising given the 35.4% Ball%, which isn’t that bad at all. You like the strikeouts but you don’t like anything else. The SIERA is 3.67 now with his 5.76 ERA, so I’m still holding onto him in 14-team leagues or deeper. Maybe there’s something more intangible here like pitch execution or predictability or pitch tipping or something, I don’t know. We have to go on what we know, and from what we know - it seems like Detmers has just been really unlucky so far and should at least be a league-average pitcher, and all of the ERA indicators show him as better than league-average.
Bryan Woo struggled to get whiffs this time with just 3 on 70 pitches. It would seem they’re really taking it easy with his workload as well. He’s thrown 62, 79, 77, and 70 pitches in his four Major League starts (that’s from oldest to newest), and the Nationals had no trouble putting balls in play on him. They even barreled two up to tag him for three runs in six innings.
Still decent marks for the year with the 12.8% SwStr% and elite 27% Ball%, and the four-seamer is such a good pitch. But he doesn’t have a non-fastball that he can use above 15% of the time, and that will turn into some bad outings when the fastball command isn’t good. He’s an easy 12-team start, don’t get me wrong.
Kyle Bradish had a huge start on the opposite side of Crochet there.
7 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 11 K, 4 BB
I guess I should have lead off with him, I didn’t even realize he didn’t allow a hit. The four walks suck though and the Ball% was high at 38.8%, and he went for just 13 whiffs. 11 punchies on 13 whiffs is wild to see. He threw a bunch of sinkers at the White Sox, which is a pretty good way to attack a trash lineup:
So good stuff for Bradish, but still - not the best command, not a ton of whiffs, and definitely benefitting from the matchup there. I’m not really trying to critique an 11-strikeout no-hit outing, but I guess I just did! Bradish is good, he’s just not a top-20 pitcher. That’s my bold take.
Casey Mize is just terrible, I’ll continue to be baffled at why people were into him this year.
4.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 K, 2 BB, 8.1% SwStr%
Cool man, cool. I’m done talking about him, this is the last time I mention him in a non-automated way. I promise (I don’t).
If you like these pitcher reviews, you can do your own by using the “Yesterdays SP Data” sheet. This is the main thing I’m using when I’m doing these recaps. and the data is free and it refreshes every morning.
Hitter Review
Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the year, so that’s terrible for the Braves, for baseball, and for his fantasy owners. I don’t have anything else to say about it, here’s hoping Acuna gets back to 100% and has way less health issues for the rest of his career.
Paul Goldschmidt hit two dingers. On May 11th, your boy tweeted this:
Goldy since May 12th:
.308/.357/.596, 4 HR, 9 R, 10 RBI, 2 SB, 138 fantasy points (15th-most)
If you took my advice and dropped him - it’s your fault, you should have known better than to trust me.
If you held onto him - congratulations, way to think for yourself and not listen to idiot savants online.
He does still have a 30% K% over this hot streak, so it’s not all good. But the 11.4% Brl%, 54% Hard%, and .351 xwOBA show a pretty nice picture.
I would really like to write more, but I think my wife is waiting for me for us to go somewhere since I’m not working today. So I will make the right decision here and hang it up. Enjoy your Memorial Day, my people!
The full notes are free for those who served in the military, but again - honors system. If you didn’t serve in the military, just read down like halfway through the pitcher part and then stop.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet
2. Brent Suter
3. Sonny Gray
4. Logan Webb
5. Sean Manaea
6. Kyle Bradish
7. Michael Wacha
8. Reid Detmers
9. Ranger Suarez
10. Cal Quantrill
11. Blake Walston
12. Ronel Blanco
13. Clarke Schmidt
14. Chris Sale
15. Tanner Houck
16. Taj Bradley
17. Ryan Weathers
18. Martin Perez
19. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
20. Joe Musgrove
21. Tobias Myers
22. Ben Lively
23. Patrick Corbin
24. Pablo Lopez
25. Javier Assad
26. Casey Mize
27. Bryan Woo
28. Gerson Garabito
29. Yusei Kikuchi
30. Aaron Brooks
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Bradish (vs. CWS): 39.35 Points
2. Chris Sale (vs. PIT): 30.75 Points
3. Sonny Gray (vs. CHC): 29.45 Points
4. Logan Webb (vs. NYM): 29.35 Points
5. Garrett Crochet (vs. BAL): 29.1 Points
6. Ryan Weathers (vs. ARI): 28.5 Points
7. Ronel Blanco (vs. OAK): 26.75 Points
8. Ben Lively (vs. LAA): 22.15 Points
9. Michael Wacha (vs. TB): 21.1 Points
10. Taj Bradley (vs. KC): 20.85 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 19 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 18 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
3. Cal Quantrill (COL): 18 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
5. Logan Webb (SF): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
7. Reid Detmers (LAA): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
8. Sean Manaea (NYM): 16 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. Michael Wacha (KC): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
10. Sonny Gray (STL): 14 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 59.3 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
2. Logan Webb (SF): 54.2 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
3. Taj Bradley (TB): 53.7 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
4. Sean Manaea (NYM): 53.4 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
5. Michael Wacha (KC): 53.2 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
6. Reid Detmers (LAA): 53.1 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 52.4 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 52.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
9. Sonny Gray (STL): 51.4 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
10. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 51.0 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
11. Carson Spiers (CIN): 50.9 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
12. Chris Sale (ATL): 49.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
13. Ryan Weathers (MIA): 49.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
14. Blake Walston (ARI): 49.2 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
15. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 49.0 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryan Woo: 70 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.89 POUT
2. Ben Lively: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
3. Logan Webb: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
4. Chris Sale: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
5. Blake Walston: 65 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.64 POUT
6. Patrick Corbin: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Nick Martinez: 64 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.92 POUT
8. Tobias Myers: 64 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.92 POUT
9. Ronel Blanco: 104 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.95 POUT
10. Ryan Weathers: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryan Weathers's ST velo (18 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.7
Michael Wacha's SI velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.9
Ronel Blanco's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.5
Ranger Suarez's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.8
Martin Perez's FC velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 87.3
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 78.8
Ranger Suarez's FF velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.2
Reid Detmers's SL velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.3
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 80.1
Ronel Blanco's SL velo (43 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 85.3
Yusei Kikuchi's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 79.9
Yusei Kikuchi's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -3.8mph to 84.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's ST usage (19.6%) up 12.3 points
Bryan Woo's SI usage (44.3%) up 14.8 points
Cal Quantrill's FS usage (44.9%) up 24.2 points
Carson Spiers's ST usage (24.6%) up 12.7 points
Casey Mize's SI usage (17.4%) up 14.1 points
Clarke Schmidt's FC usage (41.6%) up 11.1 points
Garrett Crochet's FC usage (37.4%) up 19.0 points
Javier Assad's CU usage (17.3%) up 10.6 points
Joe Musgrove's SL usage (27.6%) up 13.4 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (38.8%) up 13.5 points
Michael Soroka's SL usage (44.8%) up 14.3 points
Michael Wacha's SI usage (27.7%) up 13.3 points
Michael Wacha's SL usage (27.7%) up 25.0 points
Nick Martinez's FF usage (31.2%) up 15.9 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (24.1%) up 19.9 points
Ryan Weathers's SI usage (20.9%) up 15.3 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (50.0%) up 33.5 points
Sean Manaea's FC usage (20.5%) up 16.1 points
Sonny Gray's SI usage (28.4%) up 12.6 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (31.6%) up 27.3 points
Tanner Houck's FS usage (31.2%) up 12.5 points
Yusei Kikuchi's CH usage (21.4%) up 12.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Nick Pivetta 4-Seam Fastball: +25.6%
Javier Assad Sinker: +20.9%
Nick Pivetta Cutter: -20.7%
Sean Manaea Sinker: +19.6%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +18.5%
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -16.6%
Javier Assad 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Casey Mize 4-Seam Fastball: -15.3%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -15.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -15.1%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +15.1%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Jake Irvin Curveball: +14.4%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.2%
Trevor Rogers Slider: +14.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.2%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.0%
Michael Wacha Slider: +13.9%
Marcus Stroman Sinker: -13.5%
Ronel Blanco Slider: +13.2%
Frankie Montas Slider: +12.8%
Logan Allen Changeup: +12.6%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: -12.6%
Joe Ryan Split-Finger: +12.4%
Spencer Arrighetti Curveball: +12.3%
Hunter Brown Cutter: -12.1%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 42.6% CSW%
Michael King - 79 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 93 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 85 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 101 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 87 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Austin Gomber - 76 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 108 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 87 TBF, 36.8% K%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Kyle Bradish - 85 TBF, 34.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Luis Gil - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Taj Bradley - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Bailey Ober - 83 TBF, 31.3% K%
Sonny Gray - 93 TBF, 31.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 74 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Taj Bradley - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Trevor Williams - 77 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 108 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 93 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 78 TBF, 75.9% GB%
Jose Soriano - 93 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 77 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 104 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 99 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Reese Olson - 88 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Max Fried - 78 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Tanner Houck - 101 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 90 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 35.3 K%, 2.0 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Cooper Criswell - 60 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 56.8% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 87 TBF, 36.8 K%, 5.7 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.2 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 62 TBF, 33.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Keaton Winn: 11.3 ERA, 4.78 SIERA
Edward Cabrera: 11.33 ERA, 5.07 SIERA
Reid Detmers: 9.4 ERA, 4.12 SIERA
Paul Blackburn: 8.4 ERA, 4.3 SIERA
Bryce Elder: 9.01 ERA, 5.06 SIERA
Matthew Liberatore: 7.63 ERA, 3.82 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 8.85 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 7.45 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
Mason Black: 8.79 ERA, 5.44 SIERA
Ryne Nelson: 7.23 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Luckiest
Grayson Rodriguez: 1.08 ERA, 4.88 SIERA
Reese Olson: 0.64 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Alex Wood: 2.25 ERA, 5.17 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 2.93 ERA, 5.7 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 1.6 ERA, 4.3 SIERA
Luis Gil: 0.59 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 2.62 ERA, 4.98 SIERA
Jon Gray: 1.67 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Shota Imanaga: 0.69 ERA, 2.95 SIERA
Javier Assad: 2.32 ERA, 4.5 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Seth Lugo - +2.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Tanner Houck - +2.0% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.4% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Jose Urena - +2.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Taj Bradley - +2.2% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Yu Darvish - +3.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.7% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.7% CSW%, -6.5 BB%
Jared Koenig - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Tayler Scott - +2.3% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Cole Irvin - +2.8% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Brad Keller - +2.0% CSW%, -7.5 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Corey Seager (TEX) 5 PA, 15 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Joey Gallo (WSH) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Vierling (DET) 6 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Danny Mendick, Yesterday: 108.1 Previous High: 107.1
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 117.0mph - double
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 115.8mph - single
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 113.5mph - single
Randy Arozarena (TB) - 112.1mph - field_out
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 112.1mph - single
Brett Baty (NYM) - 112.0mph - single
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.6mph - nan
Javier Baez (DET) - 111.1mph - double
D.J. Stewart (NYM) - 110.9mph - field_out
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 110.7mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Christopher Morel - 73 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, 0.137 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 58 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.112 Diff
Vaughn Grissom - 60 PA, 0.153 wOBA, 0.259 xwOBA, 0.106 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 59 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 60 PA, 0.265 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Yainer Diaz - 64 PA, 0.239 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Riley Greene - 76 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, 0.093 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 65 PA, 0.196 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.509 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 83 PA, 0.271 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Bottom 10
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 58 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.22 xwOBA, -0.135 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 81 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, -0.122 Diff
Alec Burleson - 63 PA, 0.436 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 89 PA, 0.398 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 87 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Luke Raley - 61 PA, 0.37 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Dylan Moore - 74 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Michael Massey - 60 PA, 0.377 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Ty France - 72 PA, 0.31 wOBA, 0.235 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Bryce Harper - 76 PA, 0.433 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, -0.066 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 49 BIP, 26 Brls, 53.1 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 68 PA, 40 BIP, 14 Brls, 35.0 Brl%
Corey Seager - 73 PA, 51 BIP, 15 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 51 PA, 21 BIP, 6 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 53 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 59 BIP, 15 Brls, 25.4 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 67 PA, 44 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 60 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 81 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 62 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 0.658 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 73 PA, 0.55 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.509 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 84 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 69 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Jake Bauers - 52 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 81 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 74 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Ryan McMahon - 77 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Edmundo Sosa - 51 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Yandy Diaz - 81 PA, 132 Swings, 93.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 148 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 77 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 58 PA, 90 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Nolan Schanuel - 79 PA, 132 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Brice Turang - 65 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 82 PA, 137 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 57 PA, 76 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 70 PA, 133 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Luis Matos - 56 PA, 96 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Brenton Doyle - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Luis Rengifo - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Christian Yelich - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Harrison Bader - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Brandon Marsh - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Johan Rojas - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jesse Winker - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ceddanne Rafaela - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Wilyer Abreu - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Dylan Moore - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
David Hamilton - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 16 Attempts (14 steals)
Jose Caballero - 15 Attempts (10 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Jacob Young - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Brenton Doyle - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Bryson Stott - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Luis Rengifo - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Will Benson - 7 Attempts (3 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Brandon Marsh - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Brayan Rocchio - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 84 PA, 14.3 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 72 PA, 16.7 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Corey Seager - 73 PA, 16.4 K%, 29.4 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 60 PA, 13.3 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Gunnar Henderson - 75 PA, 17.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 14.9 Brl%
JJ Bleday - 87 PA, 18.4 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 18.6 K%, 25.4 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 81 PA, 14.8 K%, 21.6 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 79 PA, 16.5 K%, 18.3 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 77 PA, 16.9 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Will Smith - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Jake Meyers - 80 PA, +0.143 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 124 PA, +0.141 xwOBA
Ryan McMahon - 111 PA, +0.117 xwOBA
JJ Bleday - 120 PA, +0.112 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 116 PA, +0.098 xwOBA
Bryson Stott - 109 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 123 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Nick Senzel - 89 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Jo Adell - 109 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Vidal Brujan - 85 PA, +0.087 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Aaron Judge - 124 PA, +17.7 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 97 PA, +15.1 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 80 PA, +10.9 Brl%
Andrew McCutchen - 109 PA, +10.4 Brl%
Will Smith - 97 PA, +10.0 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 109 PA, +9.7 Brl%
Corey Seager - 113 PA, +9.2 Brl%
JJ Bleday - 120 PA, +7.9 Brl%
Juan Soto - 129 PA, +7.7 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 111 PA, +7.3 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Javier Baez - 85 PA, +13.1 Cont%
Ryan McMahon - 111 PA, +10.4 Cont%
Connor Wong - 81 PA, +10.4 Cont%
Eloy Jimenez - 96 PA, +10.0 Cont%
Yainer Diaz - 94 PA, +8.5 Cont%
Dylan Moore - 102 PA, +8.4 Cont%
Jeremy Pena - 113 PA, +8.2 Cont%
Brandon Marsh - 90 PA, +7.7 Cont%
Jesus Sanchez - 91 PA, +7.6 Cont%
Brice Turang - 98 PA, +7.4 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Connor Wong - 81 PA, -19.3 K%
Jesus Sanchez - 91 PA, -11.3 K%
Javier Baez - 85 PA, -11.2 K%
Hunter Renfroe - 81 PA, -10.7 K%
Jake Meyers - 80 PA, -10.0 K%
Luke Raley - 81 PA, -9.8 K%
Brandon Marsh - 90 PA, -9.3 K%
Jeremy Pena - 113 PA, -9.2 K%
Charlie Blackmon - 81 PA, -9.1 K%
Dylan Moore - 102 PA, -8.8 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Dylan Moore - +7.5% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -9.3 Chase%
Bobby Witt Jr. - +3.5% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Christian Yelich - +4.8% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -13.6 Chase%
J.D. Martinez - +3.4% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -4.6 Chase%
Jose Miranda - +14.7% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Luis Campusano - +5.1% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -10.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Carlos Correa - 0.378 xwOBA, 13.9% Brl%, 78.8% Contact%, 23.2% Chase%, 19.6% K%
Gunnar Henderson - 0.437 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 77.0% Contact%, 18.5% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Kyle Tucker - 0.415 xwOBA, 19.0% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 11.0% Chase%, 11.1% K%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 0.439 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 78.5% Contact%, 21.3% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Will Smith - 0.389 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 83.7% Contact%, 22.2% Chase%, 14.9% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Elly De La Cruz - 38.3% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.982 Cold Rating
Shea Langeliers - 34.2% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.946 Cold Rating
Brenton Doyle - 34.7% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.939 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 35.9% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Korey Lee - 45.9% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Jo Adell - 33.3% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.895 Cold Rating
Josh Naylor - 29.3% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating
Mark Canha - 29.5% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 28.7% Whiff%, 79.4% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Christian Walker - 35.3% Whiff%, 65.7% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Alex De Jesus (TOR): 3/5, 3R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 39FPts
Eddy Alvarez (BOS): 3/3, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 37FPts
Nicholas Northcut (CIN): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 33FPts
Ivan Melendez (ARI): 3/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Kameron Misner (TB): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Wilderd Patino (ARI): 1/2, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 28FPts
Adael Amador (COL): 1/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 28FPts
Jeremiah Jackson (NYM): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Rainer Nunez (TOR): 2/5, 1R, 1HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Carlos Cortes (NYM): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Brad Lord (WSH): 91 Pitches, 7IP, 3H, 0ER, 9K, 3BB, 34FPts
Slade Cecconi (ARI): 87 Pitches, 7IP, 7H, 0ER, 9K, 1BB, 32FPts
Adam Macko (TOR): 89 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 9K, 0BB, 31FPts
Andrew Alvarez (WSH): 91 Pitches, 7IP, 5H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 26FPts
Blair Henley (HOU): 90 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 25FPts
Efrain Contreras (PHI): 63 Pitches, 4IP, 2H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB, 25FPts
Roddery Munoz (MIA): 0 Pitches, 8IP, 3H, 0ER, 3K, 2BB, 25FPts
Pierson Ohl (MIN): 85 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 5K, 1BB, 24FPts
Quinn Priester (PIT): 81 Pitches, 7IP, 1H, 0ER, 3K, 2BB, 23FPts
Carson Whisenhunt (SF): 81 Pitches, 5IP, 5H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB, 21FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Heston Kjerstad (AAA - BAL) 155 PA 1.166 OPS
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - ARI) 187 PA 1.093 OPS
Emmanuel Rodriguez (AA - MIN) 165 PA 1.08 OPS
Matthew Lugo (AA - BOS) 145 PA 1.079 OPS
James Wood (AAA - WSH) 202 PA 1.061 OPS
Jonah Bride (AAA - MIA) 189 PA 1.048 OPS
Niko Kavadas (AAA - BOS) 164 PA 1.031 OPS
Daniel Schneemann (AAA - CLE) 206 PA 1.016 OPS
Andre Lipcius (AAA - LAD) 207 PA 1.011 OPS
Coco Montes (AAA - COL) 210 PA 1.002 OPS
Sam Hilliard (AAA - COL) 217 PA 0.992 OPS
Daniel Johnson (AAA - BAL) 152 PA 0.99 OPS
Brewer Hicklen (AAA - MIL) 201 PA 0.983 OPS
Andrew Knapp (AAA - TEX) 161 PA 0.976 OPS
Jesus Bastidas (AAA - HOU) 214 PA 0.968 OPS
David Dahl (AAA - PHI) 140 PA 0.966 OPS
Coby Mayo (AAA - BAL) 192 PA 0.964 OPS
Carson Williams (AA - TB) 176 PA 0.963 OPS
Agustin Ramirez (AA - NYY) 179 PA 0.962 OPS
Ben Gamel (AAA - NYM) 156 PA 0.96 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Ian Seymour (AA - TB) 47 IP 28.4% K-BB
Chandler Champlain (AAA - KC) 42 IP 27.3% K-BB
Yilber Diaz (AA - ARI) 47 IP 26.8% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AA - COL) 45 IP 25.2% K-BB
Mason Adams (AA - CWS) 45 IP 24.6% K-BB
David Festa (AAA - MIN) 39 IP 24.5% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AA - PHI) 39 IP 24.2% K-BB
Tink Hence (AA - STL) 45 IP 24.2% K-BB
Cade Povich (AAA - BAL) 53 IP 24.1% K-BB
Spencer Howard (AAA - SF) 39 IP 22.6% K-BB
Braxton Ashcraft (AA - PIT) 40 IP 22.0% K-BB
Adam Macko (AA - TOR) 44 IP 22.0% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - KC) 41 IP 21.6% K-BB
Justin Wrobleski (AA - LAD) 45 IP 21.5% K-BB
Brady Basso (AAA - OAK) 37 IP 21.5% K-BB
Adam Mazur (AAA - SD) 49 IP 21.3% K-BB
Carson Whisenhunt (AAA - SF) 40 IP 21.1% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 43 IP 20.8% K-BB
Joe Rock (AAA - TB) 42 IP 20.8% K-BB
Brett Kerry (AAA - LAA) 44 IP 20.5% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
LAA - 113.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
NYY - 111.1 Opposing SP Stuff+
CWS - 110.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
PIT - 110.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIL - 108.1 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
CLE - 77.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAD - 85.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
STL - 86.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
CIN - 87.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
TB - 90.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Robert Gasser (14.0% Owned): Projected 6.09IP 2.76ER 5.94SO 2.65BB 16.16FPts
Taijuan Walker (9.5% Owned): Projected 6.17IP 2.98ER 5.44SO 2.51BB 14.77FPts
Lance Lynn (26.5% Owned): Projected 5.59IP 2.92ER 5.65SO 2.74BB 14.27FPts
####OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Masyn Winn - 27 PA, 1.207 OPS
Colt Keith - 35 PA, 1.17 OPS
Jake Meyers - 37 PA, 1.147 OPS
Matt Vierling - 32 PA, 1.147 OPS
David Hamilton - 28 PA, 1.047 OPS
Danny Jansen - 33 PA, 0.976 OPS
Corey Julks - 27 PA, 0.968 OPS
Seth Brown - 28 PA, 0.964 OPS
Zach Neto - 32 PA, 0.93 OPS
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 28 PA, 0.917 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Jacob Hurtubise OF (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.9R 0.11HR 0.61RBI 0.89SO 0.65BB 0.27SB 9.71FPts
Danny Jansen C (17.5% Owned): Projected 0.78R 0.31HR 0.7RBI 0.79SO 0.41BB 0.01SB 9.59FPts
David Fry C (41.5% Owned): Projected 0.79R 0.22HR 0.8RBI 0.77SO 0.27BB 0.06SB 9.58FPts
Davis Schneider 2B (14.0% Owned): Projected 0.83R 0.26HR 0.58RBI 1.25SO 0.63BB 0.07SB 9.5FPts
Tyler Freeman SS (21.0% Owned): Projected 0.87R 0.13HR 0.62RBI 0.58SO 0.26BB 0.17SB 9.16FPts
Jake Fraley CF (9.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.13HR 0.73RBI 0.78SO 0.45BB 0.24SB 8.86FPts
Willi Castro LF (42.5% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.12HR 0.56RBI 1.06SO 0.37BB 0.2SB 8.56FPts
Jeimer Candelario 3B (27.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.16HR 0.73RBI 0.99SO 0.43BB 0.05SB 8.54FPts
Lars Nootbaar RF (28.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.17HR 0.62RBI 1.14SO 0.64BB 0.09SB 8.5FPts
Max Kepler RF (35.5% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.18HR 0.71RBI 0.79SO 0.48BB 0.02SB 8.5FPts
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