MLB Daily Notes - May 28th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Everybody is taking their turns making their jokes about Angel Hernandez and his retirement. And I want to take a paragraph here and defend Angel. I have no numbers or data or logical arguments to defend him with, I just don’t like the dog pile. TV broadcasts showing that strike zone box on the broadcast was such a brutal thing to do to the umpires. Calling balls and strikes is like an impossible thing to do and those guys do it as well as anybody can. Every time they get a close call right the reaction is just like “YOU DID YOUR JOB WHOOPDEE-DOO”, but when they miss one everybody lights their pitch forks. I know that this is a hard science now so people could probably actually prove that Hernandez was legitimately so bad at the job that he shouldn’t have it, but whatever the calls go both ways.
I have this hard aversion to thinking what everybody else is thinking, and this is a little bit of a window into how that makes me dumb sometimes. Like if everybody is right about something, I almost want to be wrong about that thing just so I’m not like everybody else. I lived in Pittsburgh for 30 years and didn’t wear a single Steelers logo after I turned like 16 until I moved somewhere the people don’t like the Steelers, now I freaking love the Steelers so much I wasted $150 on a Kenny Pickett jersey last year.
So, here’s to you, Angel Hernandez! They hate you cause they ain’t you.
Pitcher Review
Michael King dazzled in the advanced numbers with a 55.1% Strike% and 18% SwStr%, but was inefficient and made it through just five innings on 89 pitches. He allowed three hits, one run, and struck out seven. So a great start for him in a great matchup with the Marlins.
The command has been spotty with him, and there have been times when he’s struggled to get whiffs as well. Lately it’s all been pretty good with a 16% SwStr%, a 52.4% Strike%, a 31.9% Ball%, and a beautiful 23.5% K-BB% over his last three starts.
Charlie Morton got thumped, giving up eight earned runs on 12 hits, but he did post a 17.5% SwStr% and seven strikeouts.
It hasn’t been the worst season in the world for Morton with the 4.29 ERA and 3.82 SIERA, but the SwStr% is below 13% and the command has not been special with a 9.7% BB%. You’re not dropping him or anything, but the expectations have to be pretty low now on the 40-year old.
He’s still depending heavily on the curveball, and maybe that’s just the way these old guys need to do it. We saw Adam Wainwright pitch into his 40’s relying on the hook, and it was mostly good until that last year, but then again - we saw how fast things can completely crash and burn in that case.
How about this Mitchell Parker fellow?
6.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 6 K, 0 BB, 17% SwStr%, 26% Ball%
And that was against the Braves, not bad!
He now sports a 3.45 ERA with a 3.52 SIERA on a 16.9% K-BB%. You see above that his pitch mix isn’t anything special with the 11.9% SwStr%, but he pounds the strike zone with the 31% Ball% and that has turned into a 49% Strike% which is pretty good. I would think there should be some pretty bad starts ahead with the 47% usage of a fastball that gets a whiff just 6% of the time. So far he’s given up a .286 BABIP, which doesn’t stand out either way, and he’s kept the ball on the ground 47% of the time with about a league-average 35 PA/HR. So it’s not like he’s been super lucky besides maybe getting a few more strikeouts than you’d expect given the low SwStr%.
He’s a fine 15-teamer, but nothing more than that, just had to give him a shoutout there for the nice start against the Braves (and he won us a prop bet!).
Blake Snell just cannot throw strikes… yet. He sits with a 43% Ball%, which is fourth-worst in the league among pitchers with at least 3 starts.
Worst Ball Rates
Boyle 45.6%
Nastrini 43.6%
Butto 43.3%
Snell 43.0%
France 42.1%
Gibson 41.1%
Puk 40.9%
Javier 40.9%
Soroka 40.7%
Hudson 40.2%
The good news, I suppose, is that this isn’t much higher than what he did last year when he won the damn Cy Young Award. He went for a 41.6% Ball% in that season, second-worst in the league only to Michael Kopech.
The difference this year is that he’s not getting whiffs at nearly the same rate. The 13.8% SwStr% is fine, but well down from the 16% mark last year. And honestly, throwing that many balls, he probably does need a SwStr% above 15% to have a chance.
My advice is still to just start him every time because it’s pretty likely eventually he finds the groove and gets going again, but even at his best, he’s probably not going to give you a great WHIP. The reason to start Snell has always been for the strikeouts and the ERA. We got the strikeouts yesterday, but he has yet to give you a useful fantasy start in five tries.
Also he went on paternity leave and then came back, and the baby wasn’t even born yet. So he’ll likely hit the paternity list again this week, they don’t let babies be more than two weeks late anymore from my experience, although that statement right there is assuming a lot of things about Snell’s situation that I don’t know about. So anyways, I hope his baby is born healthy and happy and I also hope he starts throwing more strikes.
Not the best return for Nick Lodolo with just an 8.6% SwStr%, but he didn’t hurt anybody allowing just one run in 5.1 innings without only five hits and no walks. Good to see him returning quickly once again, but I suspect it won’t be his last time on the IL. But let’s hope it is, that guy is awesome to watch.
The most interesting SP outing of the day might have been Robert Gasser.
6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, 14.8% SwStr%, 25.9% Ball%
The guy has thrown a boatload of strikes in his four starts, walking just one batter in 23 innings.
11.8% SwStr%, 47.8% Strike%, 28.9% Ball%, 14% K%, 1.1% BB%
He posted an 11.8% BB% in the minors in three starts, so this is a crazy change and it shows you just what short samples can do to you. The K% was 33% in the minors and now it sits at just 14% despite seven big ones yesterday. He went six innings without a strikeout in his start last week against the Marlins.
So who is the real Robert Gasser? I have no idea. He does remind me a lot of Andrew Abbott and Kyle Harrison though. This mold of lefties who just strike everybody out in the minors but then come up to the Majors and can’t do it.
2022-2024:
Andrew Abbott: 42.7% K% in minors, 23.7% in Majors
Kyle Harrison: 38.2% K% in minors, 22.4% in Majors
Gasser has never been at those 40% heights in the minors, so maybe we should expect even less from him, but it’s impossible to know.
He throws a bunch of sweepers and then does have the three different fastball variations, so I like the pitch mix. The fastballs aren’t fast, but they aren’t slow. So this really could go either way. I have no idea what to say other than that I would stream him this weekend against the White Sox and then go from there.
Hitter Review
Nolan Gorman has been bad this year after two years of at least being a good source of homers. He is among the recent barrel leaders with a 26.1% Brl% over his last 54 PA, however that is just 23 BIP with all of the strikeouts and walks, so it’s harder to rely on.
Season:
35.8% K%, 10.9% BB%, 15.1% Brl%, 8 HR
May:
37.5 K%, 17.2% BB%, 20.7% Brl%, 4 HR
Eight homers at this point is still useful in a deep league, but the strikeouts are really prohibitive.
His teammate Paul Goldschmidt hit another dinger yesterday, his seventh of the year. He’s now slashing .304/.350/.625 since I said he was a drop. Shout out to me.
And to revisit another name from yesterday, Jose Miranda also homered again. He’s now at .279/.313/.467 with five homers, a 6.8% Brl%, and a 15% K%, certainly creeping into deep-league consideration.
Onto the automation.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Mitchell Parker
2. Robert Gasser
3. Michael King
4. Joe Ryan
5. Charlie Morton
6. Justin Steele
7. Chris Bassitt
8. Bryce Miller
9. Xzavion Curry
10. Nick Lodolo
11. Lance Lynn
12. Cole Irvin
13. Blake Snell
14. Nick Nastrini
15. Alec Marsh
16. Framber Valdez
17. Cooper Criswell
18. Taijuan Walker
19. Trevor Rogers
20. Anthony Molina
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Ryan (vs. KC): 33.35 Points
2. Justin Steele (vs. MIL): 29.35 Points
3. Chris Bassitt (vs. CWS): 26.25 Points
4. Robert Gasser (vs. CHC): 25.7 Points
5. Cole Irvin (vs. BOS): 23.05 Points
6. Bryce Miller (vs. HOU): 21.3 Points
7. Mitchell Parker (vs. ATL): 21.24 Points
8. Michael King (vs. MIA): 20.85 Points
9. Nick Lodolo (vs. STL): 16.99 Points
10. Lance Lynn (vs. CIN): 16.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 18 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
2. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 17 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Michael King (SD): 16 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Joe Ryan (MIN): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Justin Steele (CHC): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Bryce Miller (SEA): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Robert Gasser (MIL): 12 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
8. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
9. Blake Snell (SF): 10 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
10. Lance Lynn (STL): 9 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Robert Gasser (MIL): 56.8 Strike%, 25.9 Ball%
2. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 56.0 Strike%, 26.0 Ball%
3. Michael King (SD): 55.1 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
4. Joe Ryan (MIN): 52.5 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
5. Cole Irvin (BAL): 52.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
6. Justin Steele (CHC): 51.6 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
7. Charlie Morton (ATL): 50.5 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
8. Xzavion Curry (CLE): 50.0 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
9. Bryce Miller (SEA): 48.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 46.9 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
11. Josh Rogers (COL): 46.5 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
12. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 45.7 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
13. Blake Snell (SF): 45.6 Strike%, 42.2 Ball%
14. Alec Marsh (KC): 44.7 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
15. Taijuan Walker (PHI): 42.9 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Robert Gasser: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
2. Justin Steele: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
3. Joe Ryan: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
4. Josh Rogers: 71 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.73 POUT
5. Brad Keller: 58 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.83 POUT
6. Alec Marsh: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
7. Nick Lodolo: 81 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.06 POUT
8. Bryce Miller: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
9. Mitchell Parker: 100 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.26 POUT
10. Framber Valdez: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's FS velo (10 pitches) UP 3.8mph to 89.0
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 82.4
Joe Ryan's FF velo (51 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 94.7
Cooper Criswell's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.4
Michael King's ST velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 83.5
Brad Keller's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.4
Joe Ryan's ST velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.7
Blake Snell's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 90.0
Blake Snell's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.0
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get absolutely everything that I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.