MLB Daily Notes - May 29th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
We have to talk about Ben Brown today. He dominated the Brewers yesterday:
7 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 10 K, 2 BB, 17% SwStr%, 57% Strike%, 31.2% Ball%
This was his second traditional start in a row after his usage was mixed early on. Here are his game logs so far:
So he ramped up to 93 pitches there and certainly earned himself at least a couple more starts in the traditional starter role. He has a 16:2 K:BB in these last 11 innings while allowing no runs and one hit, really impressive stuff. The pitch mix:
The fastball is iffy, and it doesn’t grade out very well in the Stuff+ models either, but the curveball is clearly amazing. Last year in the minors he went for a 4.27 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, a 32.6% K%, and a 14.3% BB% in AA-AAA. That walk rate was scary, but we have seen plenty of times where the minor league walk rates don’t translate at all to the Majors due to the different rulers and environments down there.
What we should do here is look at that 14.8% SwStr% and 34% Ball% and project from there, because we have seen 708 pitches from him so far. Who knows if he can stick around those numbers, but if he does, it should be quite good. Some other names between 14-16 SwStr% and 33 and 35% Ball%:
Logan Gilbert
Hunter Greene
Cole Ragans
Corbin Burnes
Nick Lodolo
Jon Gray
Zack Wheeler
It’s very good company. The one thing to highlight is that he has only thrown two pitches in these last two starts, which is alarming to say the least:
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a starter only throw two pitches, usually you’ll see a changeup or cutter or something thrown in there 5% of the time, but nope Brown is just going wild on the four-seamer and curveball. Given that the four-seamer does not seem like a good one, I would really doubt he can function as a useful fantasy starter moving forward. He is likely to face the White Sox next week, so that might be worth a stream, but yeah I wouldn’t go out and drop anybody good for him right now.
Freddy Peralta was great on the other side with a 23% SwStr% and a 55% Strike% and 11 strikeouts, but when he wasn’t striking people, he was wasting a lot of pitches and made it through just 5.2 innings despite throwing 111 pitches.
That put him in the bottom three in POUT (pitches/out), which you can view here, or just look at this screenshot:
Only 14 pitchers have made at least nine starts and come in below 5 pitches per out:
You can see that BABIP is correlated here. The worst way to be efficient is to walk somebody since that takes at least four pitches to not get an out. The next worst way is probably to strike out a bunch of dudes since that takes at least three pitches to get an out, and usually more. So the most efficient guys will usually be the guys not walking people and allowing balls in play, and at the top of the list you’ll typically find low BABIPs.
The most impressive names on that list would be the guys who still have high strikeout rates
Jared Jones
Sonny Gray
Ranger Suarez
Shota Imanaga
Tyler Glasnow
Tarik Skubal
And speaking of Jones and Skubal, we get to see them both today PLUS Paul Skenes and Jack Flaherty. That is quite an exciting double header in Detroit, certainly the most interesting two Pirates vs. Tigers games in several years if not ever.
Nice ten-strikeout game from Grayson Rodriguez who generated 18 whiffs along the way, good to see him look a bit more dominant than he had previously.
Triston McKenzie struck out nine in Coors Field on an 18.1% SwStr% and 33% Ball%, so that rollercoaster continues.
And how about Matt Waldron?
7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 8 K, 0 BB, 17.6% SwStr%, 56.5% Strike%, 21.2% Ball%
That’s an insane Strike% and Ball%. He now has 25 strikeouts and four walks in his last three starts (vs. ATL/CIN/MIA), and his season K% is up to 24.2% with a 7.7% BB%.
Is he a fantasy add now? He’s pitched like it lately, but for the year the SwStr% is very low at 10.2% and the Ball% is just average at 36%. He doesn’t have a good fastball or anything other than the knuckleball, so I would say this is just a good stretch of luck from Waldron (and you see the matchups have been very good in these last two):
Hitters have really struggled with the knuckleball in this three-start run of his:
But yeah, I don’t think we want to rely on a knuckleball to get fantasy results, although there’s not much precedent for this. Credit to Waldron, he’s fun to watch and he’s getting it done lately.
Kevin Gausman had a fine start but once again just wasn’t dominating hitters, and this time it was against the White Sox:
6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 11.5% SwStr%, 42.5% Strike%
That’s a really low strike rate from Gausman. For the year it’s at 49%, which is good, but it’s coming mostly from the called strike with the 12.7% SwStr%. His season strikeout rate has fallen to 24% and the walk rate is at 6%, last year he posted a 29% K% and a 7% BB% on a 13.9% SwStr%, so there’s definite losses here. He’s still helping your fnatasy team more than hurting it with three straight quality starts, four wins, and a 4.14 ERA, but I would probably be ranking Gausman in the tier 3 or 4 of SPs if re-ranking today.
Max Fried whipped up 8 scoreless innings on six strikeouts and one walk. That was his third time going above 8 innings and allowing zero or one runs. The ERA is down to 2.97 now, but the 12.6% K-BB% makes you wonder how long that can stay around.
He has long been a guy to get it done witih weak contact, but the K-BB% last year was 20% and in 2022 it was 19%, so this is a big drop. Even in these last five starts where he has a 2.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, the K-BB% is just 14.3%. His season BABIP is .249, 60 points below his mark last year at .309. His career BABIP is .294, so he’s been lucky this year you can’t really deny that. I’m not sure why I’m even writing this all up because he’s Max Fried and we know who he is, but I guess what I’m saying is that if you can get another tier one ace for Fried, I’d do that.
If I ranked today I bet I’d have Fried in the 15-20 range.
Sticking with the Braves rotation, we will see the debut of Spencer Schwellenbach today. He got the call up directly from AA. His minor league numbers from the last two seasons:
24 GS, 110 IP, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24.7% K%, 6.0% BB%, .33 HR/9
Remember that I do that thing with league-adjusted minor league numbers. His marks from this year on that front are a 27.6% K% and a 5.6% BB%, so that’s quite impressive, but again he’s never even seen AAA hitting yet. On the MiLB Statcast dashboard we see a 16.3% SwStr% and a 30.2% Ball%. He’s allowed just one homer on 643 pitches, that is not something that will stick around in the Majors, but he’s an interesting guy to watch today and moving forward if he sticks around.
I wouldn’t be streaming him or anything, but I thought the debut was worthy of a section.
How about Taylor Ward? A homer and two barrels yesterday and now he’s done this on the year:
228 PA, .273/.329/.483, 11 HR, 15.1% Brl%, 22% K%, 8% BB%, 2 SB (3 CS)
So he could have a couple more steals there but the attempt rate is about league-average at 9%. It seems like he’s on his way to a 25-homer, 10-steal season. He’s owned in all leagues, I would assume, but he’s a very good hitter and he’s proven that for awhile now (.797 OPS with a homer every 25 PAs since 2021).
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Erik Miller
2. Matt Waldron
3. Grayson Rodriguez
4. Ben Brown
5. Freddy Peralta
6. Zack Wheeler
7. Brayan Bello
8. Triston McKenzie
9. Jake Irvin
10. Brandon Pfaadt
11. Hunter Brown
12. Tyler Glasnow
13. Kyle Gibson
14. Luis Castillo
15. Zack Littell
16. Tylor Megill
17. Gavin Stone
18. Cole Ragans
19. Griffin Canning
20. Simeon Woods Richardson
21. Kevin Gausman
22. Nestor Cortes
23. Jake Woodford
24. Nathan Eovaldi
25. Jesus Luzardo
26. Mitch Spence
27. Max Fried
28. Andrew Abbott
29. Ryan Feltner
30. Jose Quintana
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ben Brown (vs. MIL): 34.55 Points
2. Matt Waldron (vs. MIA): 32.15 Points
3. Gavin Stone (vs. NYM): 31.95 Points
4. Tylor Megill (vs. LAD): 31.35 Points
5. Jake Irvin (vs. ATL): 31.1 Points
6. Zack Littell (vs. OAK): 30.15 Points
7. Freddy Peralta (vs. CHC): 29.76 Points
8. Max Fried (vs. WSH): 29.2 Points
9. Zack Wheeler (vs. SF): 29.1 Points
10. Hunter Brown (vs. SEA): 27.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 23 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
2. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 18 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Ben Brown (CHC): 16 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
5. Brayan Bello (BOS): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Matt Waldron (SD): 15 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
7. Zack Littell (TB): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Kyle Gibson (STL): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 15 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 59.4 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
2. Ben Brown (CHC): 57.0 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
3. Matt Waldron (SD): 56.5 Strike%, 21.2 Ball%
4. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 55.6 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
5. Jake Irvin (WSH): 55.6 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 55.0 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
7. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 54.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Gavin Stone (LAD): 52.9 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
9. Hunter Brown (HOU): 51.7 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
10. Brayan Bello (BOS): 51.1 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
11. Tylor Megill (NYM): 51.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
12. Cole Ragans (KC): 50.5 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
13. Zack Littell (TB): 50.5 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
14. Luis Castillo (SEA): 50.5 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
15. Kyle Gibson (STL): 49.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Matt Waldron: 85 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.05 POUT
2. Gavin Stone: 87 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.14 POUT
3. Brandon Pfaadt: 91 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.33 POUT
4. Tyler Glasnow: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
5. Ben Brown: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
6. Max Fried: 103 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.48 POUT
7. Zack Littell: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
8. Tylor Megill: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
9. Kevin Gausman: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
10. Jose Quintana: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 86.2
Tylor Megill's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 87.0
Brayan Bello's CH velo (31 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 88.6
Matt Waldron's KN velo (47 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 78.9
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 80.2
Hunter Brown's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.6
Jesus Luzardo's CH velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 86.0
Jesus Luzardo's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 82.7
Jesus Luzardo's SI velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 93.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Freddy Peralta's FF usage (67.6%) up 15.9 points
Gavin Stone's SI usage (40.2%) up 19.7 points
Grayson Rodriguez's FF usage (63.3%) up 12.0 points
Griffin Canning's CH usage (34.4%) up 12.3 points
Hunter Brown's FS usage (21.8%) up 14.6 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (12.6%) up 10.7 points
Jake Woodford's ST usage (39.5%) up 13.1 points
Jake Woodford's FC usage (24.4%) up 20.7 points
Jesus Luzardo's SI usage (18.1%) up 12.5 points
Jose Quintana's CH usage (30.3%) up 11.3 points
Matt Waldron's KN usage (55.3%) up 16.2 points
Simeon Woods Richardson's SL usage (51.8%) up 24.1 points
Triston McKenzie's CU usage (34.0%) up 10.7 points
Tylor Megill's FC usage (15.3%) up 13.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Nick Pivetta 4-Seam Fastball: +25.6%
Javier Assad Sinker: +20.9%
Nick Pivetta Cutter: -20.7%
Sean Manaea Sinker: +19.6%
Bailey Falter Sinker: +18.5%
Justin Steele 4-Seam Fastball: -17.3%
Michael Lorenzen Slider: -16.6%
Javier Assad 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Casey Mize 4-Seam Fastball: -15.3%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -15.2%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -15.1%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +15.1%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -14.5%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -14.2%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -14.0%
Michael Wacha Slider: +13.9%
Marcus Stroman Sinker: -13.5%
Ronel Blanco Slider: +13.2%
Jake Irvin Curveball: +12.9%
Frankie Montas Slider: +12.8%
Trevor Rogers Changeup: -12.7%
Logan Allen Changeup: +12.6%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: -12.6%
Spencer Arrighetti Curveball: +12.3%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 73 TBF, 46.8% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 89 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Ben Brown - 70 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Michael King - 98 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 93 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 74 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 85 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Ben Brown - 70 TBF, 40.0% K%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 36.8% K%
Garrett Crochet - 87 TBF, 36.8% K%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Jack Flaherty - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Kyle Bradish - 85 TBF, 34.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Matt Waldron - 92 TBF, 33.7% K%
Freddy Peralta - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Ben Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 87 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 96 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 81 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Matt Waldron - 92 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
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