I have been extremely fortunate in my life. I was raised right by two parents in a comfortable home and never lacked for anything. My dad had a great job as a chemical engineer so I didn’t have to have the whole burden of the cost of college on me and everything else that comes with that. The perfect wife for me was put right in front of me and I managed to not screw it up (it’s almost like none of this is actually luck, but we’ll save that for another time). Now I own a home with a yard and a finished basement office and I have three healthy kids and my wife doesn’t even have to work so she can be with them all the time, it’s just a perfect situation and I can only take credit for a portion of it.
I say all that not to brag, but to tell you that clearly something is going on with me. And this week, I traded for Blake Snell. I gave up Nolan Gorman for him after the Jacob deGrom hit the IL and I was in a pinch for an SP. After I did that, it was obvious that Snell’s string of bad starts was over. The writing was on the wall. And last night, Snell went six innings without walking a single batter. That’s right, no walks.
That was his first start since September 16th, 2022 with no walks. It was also his first quality start and first win of the year, which is extremely convenient because the league I traded for him in is a quality start league. Ignore the fact that the matchup was the Reds at home - I have fixed Blake Snell, you are welcome.
I have resurrected the MLB Savant history dashboard. That contains a bunch of advanced stats for each player reaching the whole back to 2015, the beginning of the Statcast era. It’s a really dope resource that I use all of the time to see how players are changing year-to-year. But, of course, it’s behind the paywall. You will find the link below the paywall, and it’s also been added to the resource glossary page.
In it, you’ll find stuff like this:
And much more!
Domingo German was quite good yesterday, pitching into the 9th inning but then allowing a base runner and having the bullpen and his defense cough up the lead. This year now he has a
» 34.2% CSW%
» 16.3% SwStr%
» 28.9% K%
» 7.4% BB%
» 12.9% Brl%
So he’s given up some hard contact but has been great otherwise. He’s pretty predictable, and throwing so many curveballs leaves you open to hanging a few and having them hit very far, so maybe the hard-contact stuff will stay up there for German, but he’s clearly a must-start guy right now.
A lot of people were excited to start MacKenzie Gore this week in a two-start week after a ten-strikeout game in his last outing, and that didn’t start well. He lasted just four innings giving up four runs on seven hits and striking out four with two more walks. That outing lowered his BB% a bit, but it’s still at a terrifying 13.6%. The 29.5% K% takes off some of the sting off that, but he’s still incredibly volatile and you saw that last night.
Jose Berrios ran into a bad start after pitching incredibly well for a few outings in a row. He gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in 5.1 innings. The theme of yesterday was highly volatile pitchers taking the mound and going in different directions.
There’s a tab on the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard that shows pitcher fantasy point distributions, and I always like seeing that one. If we look at the last two seasons with SPs that have made at least 20 starts, the most volatile pitchers (highest standard deviation in fantasy point scoring) are:
Some of those names, like Strider, are there because they made some appearances in the bullpen and that obviously lowers your fantasy point scoring.
The most consistently good pitchers, when you sort the table the other way
Max Fried
Martin Perez
Luis Garcia
Alek Manoah
Luis Castillo
Framber Valdez
Justin Verlander
Shane McClanahan
Max Scherzer
Brett Baty had a big day with two barrels and a homer.
For the [young] season
» 42 PA
» .333/.381/.538
» 2 HR
» 11.1% Brl%
» 56% Hard-Hit%
» 28.6% K%
» 7.1% BB%
» 67.1% Contact%
» 41% GB%
Overall that’s an encouraging line. The 28% K% is obviously high, but that’s more “danger zone” than a real red flag. You can make do with a K% around 26-29% provided that you’re really crushing the ball when you are putting it in play, and that’s what Baty has done.
Here’s a quick report of hitters with
» 70+ PA
» Contact% Above 70%
» Brl% above 11%
» Available in some leagues
Plenty of good waiver-wire hitter options there. More hitter waiver wire pickups in a piece I wrote yesterday for RotoBaller, I went through each of the five standard categories and looked at which available hitters have been projecting well recently in each.
Another guy to highlight is Masataka Yoshida.
This is an embarrassingly gross data visualization, but I’m working quickly here. Here’s Yoshida’s average launch angle taken every day this year and plotted:
On April 16th, his average launch angle was -8 degrees. Now it’s 0.7 degrees. Since April 17th, it’s 7.2 degrees - so he’s elevating the ball a lot more recently. That has turned into a 13% Brl% and a .448 xwOBA over the last 15 days and that comes with a crazy sweet 85% Contact%. So he’s looking fantastic. Where will the launch angle settle? I don’t know, but it’s certainly been a good adjustment he’s made in recent weeks.
Nolan Gorman shows up on the cold hitter report, which isn’t surprising at all since we talked at the beginning about how he was doomed by me trading him away. This actually takes my situation to the next level. Gorman started sucking a couple of weeks ago, not after I traded him. God exists outside of time, so clearly there’s some next-level stuff going on here.
The K% and Contact% are back to places we don’t want them to be. He’s still making better swing decisions and walking a lot, so I don’t think all hope is lost. However, he does have plenty of guys breathing down his neck for PAs at DH, so a few more bad games in a row and you might see Juan Yepez take over or even Jordan Walker get the call back up.
Did I write that just to make myself feel good about my trade and consequently to make my trade partner Paul feel bad about it? You tell me!
And now we move onward, thanks for being here and making my life even better than it already was!
1. Blake Snell (SD): 17 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 16 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
3. Ross Stripling (SF): 14 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
4. Charlie Morton (ATL): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Domingo German (NYY): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
6. Taijuan Walker (PHI): 11 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
7. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 11 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 10 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Luke Weaver (CIN): 9 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
10. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 9 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
1. Domingo German (NYY): 14.8 SwStr%, 37.5 CSW%
2. Blake Snell (SD): 16.8 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
3. Spencer Strider (ATL): 15.0 SwStr%, 33.6 CSW%
4. Taijuan Walker (PHI): 13.4 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
5. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 12.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
6. Luke Weaver (CIN): 11.4 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
7. Ross Stripling (SF): 19.2 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 10.8 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
9. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 11.2 SwStr%, 28.8 CSW%
10. Charlie Morton (ATL): 14.1 SwStr%, 28.3 CSW%
1. Blake Snell - 6.0 IP - 149.5 JA Points
2. Domingo German - 8.33 IP - 148.5 JA Points
3. Ross Stripling - 5.0 IP - 125.5 JA Points
4. Tony Gonsolin - 4.67 IP - 115.0 JA Points
5. Spencer Strider - 5.0 IP - 110.5 JA Points
6. Jose Berrios - 5.33 IP - 109.5 JA Points
7. Drew Smyly - 7.0 IP - 100.0 JA Points
8. Charlie Morton - 5.33 IP - 91.0 JA Points
9. Luke Weaver - 4.33 IP - 85.5 JA Points
10. MacKenzie Gore - 4.0 IP - 83.5 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 6.0 GS - 125.08 JA Points
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 6.0 GS - 121.15 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 6.0 GS - 118.01 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 6.0 GS - 115.36 JA Points
5. Trevor Rogers (MIA) - 4.0 GS - 114.76 JA Points
6. Josiah Gray (WSH) - 6.0 GS - 112.95 JA Points
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 6.0 GS - 112.35 JA Points
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 6.0 GS - 111.57 JA Points
9. Patrick Sandoval (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 109.97 JA Points
10. Julio Urias (LAD) - 6.0 GS - 108.63 JA Points
Tony Gonsolin's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 79.4
Drew Smyly's FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 87.5
Blake Snell's CU usage (24.8%) up 10.5 points
Cal Quantrill's CU usage (17.2%) up 10.7 points
Corey Kluber's SI usage (35.6%) up 11.2 points
Jose Berrios's FF usage (38.7%) up 14.2 points
Tylor Megill's FF usage (66.7%) up 13.9 points
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 40.4% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 89 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 76 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Domingo German - 100 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 85 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Luke Weaver - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 92 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 43.5% K%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 41.5% K%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 38.8% K%
Jacob deGrom - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 34.7% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 85 TBF, 34.1% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 83 TBF, 33.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Edward Cabrera - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Hunter Greene - 85 TBF, 31.8% K%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 43.5% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 76 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Domingo German - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Clarke Schmidt - 84 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 79 TBF, 67.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 79 TBF, 64.7% GB%
Jake Woodford - 85 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 91 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 97 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Nick Martinez - 69 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 71 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Brad Keller - 89 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 93 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 96 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 43.1% GB%
David Peterson - 95 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 74 TBF, 27.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 55.3% GB%
Jake Bird - 55 TBF, 30.9 K%, 7.3 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 38.8 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Logan Allen - 45 TBF, 35.6 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 71 TBF, 29.6 K%, 2.8 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Mason Englert - 54 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 51.4% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 104 TBF, 28.8 K%, 4.8 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 92 TBF, 29.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 53.4% GB%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 43.5 K%, 0.0 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - +2.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kevin Gausman - +2.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Vince Velasquez - +3.7% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Domingo German - +5.5% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Johan Oviedo - +3.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jose Berrios - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.9% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Hunter Greene - +2.7% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.0% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +5.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
David Peterson - +4.5% CSW%, -7.0 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +3.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.1% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Zac Gallen - +4.7% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
Matthew Boyd - +3.9% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.1% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Marco Gonzales - +2.4% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.6% CSW%, -7.2 BB%
Jake Bird - +4.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Brett Baty (NYM) 9 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 9 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eddie Rosario, Yesterday: 110.4 Previous High: 109.8
Seiya Suzuki, Yesterday: 114.4 Previous High: 111.3
1. Bo Bichette - 5.0 PA - 58.5 JA Points
2. Joc Pederson - 4.0 PA - 27.0 JA Points
3. David Peralta - 5.0 PA - 23.5 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 4.0 PA - 22.5 JA Points
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. - 4.0 PA - 22.5 JA Points
6. J.D. Davis - 4.0 PA - 21.0 JA Points
7. Anthony Rizzo - 4.0 PA - 20.5 JA Points
8. Dominic Smith - 3.0 PA - 20.0 JA Points
9. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5.0 PA - 19.5 JA Points
10. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 19.5 JA Points
1. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 118.0 PA - 40.51 JA Points
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 131.0 PA - 25.65 JA Points
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 119.0 PA - 17.98 JA Points
4. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 132.0 PA - 17.73 JA Points
5. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 130.0 PA - 16.31 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 126.0 PA - 14.13 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 112.0 PA - 10.89 JA Points
8. Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 101.0 PA - 10.89 JA Points
9. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 116.0 PA - 9.66 JA Points
10. Jonah Heim (TEX) - 88.0 PA - 4.32 JA Points
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 114.5mph - home_run
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 114.4mph - nan
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 112.9mph - single
Juan Soto (SD) - 111.9mph - double
Joc Pederson (SF) - 111.4mph - home_run
Brandon Marsh (PHI) - 110.6mph - single
Eddie Rosario (ATL) - 110.4mph - double
Joey Meneses (WSH) - 109.4mph - field_out
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 109.3mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 109.2mph - field_out
Matt Chapman - 74 PA, 44 BIP, 13 Brls, 29.5 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 71 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 61 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 75 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 75 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 64 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Randy Arozarena - 80 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Jake Burger - 63 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Edmundo Sosa - 47 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 64 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jonah Heim - 63 PA, 0.484 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 61 PA, 0.478 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 75 PA, 0.477 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 71 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 0.442 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 74 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 76 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 64 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Masataka Yoshida - 65 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Jack Suwinski - 64 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 57 PA, 107 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Alec Burleson - 58 PA, 94 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 104 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 79 PA, 132 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 91 PA, 149 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Myles Straw - 61 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 76 PA, 134 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 78 PA, 125 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 54 PA, 98 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 91 PA, 182 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Esteury Ruiz - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Jack Suwinski - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
J.T. Realmuto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Taylor Walls - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Wander Franco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Wander Franco - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Starling Marte - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 9 Attempts (5 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Gleyber Torres - 8 Attempts (4 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Steven Kwan - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Myles Straw - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Keibert Ruiz - +7.1% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -7.1 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +14.3% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -3.4 Chase%
Trey Mancini - +5.4% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -12.8 Chase%
Ian Happ - +7.1% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%
Adley Rutschman - +14.3% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -5.7 Chase%
Jonathan India - +9.1% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -7.3 Chase%
Jonah Heim - +8.2% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -8.7 Chase%
Charlie Blackmon - +3.7% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -7.3 Chase%
Ryan McMahon - +3.2% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -10.4 Chase%
Patrick Wisdom - +11.3% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -13.0 Chase%
Whit Merrifield - +5.1% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Jorge Mateo - +6.5% Contact%, +6.2 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Charlie Blackmon - 0.377 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 20.0% Chase%, 10.9% K%
Ian Happ - 0.39 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 76.0% Contact%, 20.2% Chase%, 18.5% K%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 0.427 xwOBA, 19.4% Brl%, 76.0% Contact%, 15.2% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Masataka Yoshida - 0.448 xwOBA, 13.0% Brl%, 85.2% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 12.1% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.455 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 11.3% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.431 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 76.5% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 20.8% K%
Michael A. Taylor - 36.8% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.962 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 36.7% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.929 Cold Rating
Nick Maton - 34.6% Whiff%, 82.8% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating
Trea Turner - 36.1% Whiff%, 71.8% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
MJ Melendez - 38.8% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Matt Olson - 40.0% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.911 Cold Rating
Eloy Jimenez - 34.0% Whiff%, 73.0% Weak%, 0.887 Cold Rating
Nolan Gorman - 34.8% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating
Triston Casas - 32.4% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.88 Cold Rating
Esteury Ruiz - 28.6% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.836 Cold Rating
ATL - 112.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
PHI - 110.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
KC - 110.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
CIN - 108.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
TOR - 108.1 Opposing SP Stuff+
NYM - 79.1 Opposing SP Stuff+
SD - 84.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
COL - 86.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
DET - 87.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIA - 89.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
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