Alrighty I’m running a little bit late today but we do have to talk about some rookie pitchers. One of the biggest themes of the season so far has been these rookie pitchers coming up and performing quite well.
Because of that, I’m going to just be so, so selfless today in delaying work for my real job and spend some time on each guy.
He’s made two starts now with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, a 30.2% K%, and a 0% BB%. That’s pretty good! That’s 13 strikeouts and zero walks in 11 innings against the road Rockies and Yankees (so - soft matchups).
The bad news is the 10.9% SwStr%.
He throws a good amount of sliders, which I suppose is something we want to see at this point. The slider has underperformed the league average in SwStr% as well, and the fastball is pretty much just average - and he hasn’t gotten many called strikes with it. The Stuff+ on his four-seamer in the first start (don’t have the numbers from last night) was 76.
Two starts is, of course, too little of a sample to judge him - but to me it seems like he has started off well above what we should expect from him moving forward. In a redraft league I’d probably be looking to sell here to see if I could get a more proven SP in return (Joe Musgrove? Jordan Montgomery? Someone like that?).
The other Guardian has 16 strikeouts and three walks in 11 innings in the Majors (facing the Marlins and Red Sox).
A much better SwStr% here at 15.3%. He’s a very unique pitch profile here with the sweeper and splitter going for 50% of his pitches, and the fastball has performed well so far despite the low velo. He has this advantage of being a lefty with the tougher release point to pick up, here are similar release points pitchers:
The problem, I think, is that the Stuff+ marks aren’t great for him either, and it’s also much tougher to be consistent in the Majors when you’re throwing so many splitters. Rare cases like Gausman have figured out how to be consistently dominant with the splitter, but that’s an exception.
So I don’t know, I’m largely guessing here. The early results have been good but if I had to make an official prediction I would say that there will be a mix of very good and very bad starts in the future.
The guy leads the league in Stuff+ now:
But all of that has turned into just a 12% SwStr% as you see above. The fastball is thrown insanely hard but it’s way up there at a 57% usage and the SwStr% is underwhelming despite the elite Stuff+.
He finally climbed over five innings for the first time all year (at any level) last night, going seven innings and shutting down the Mariners (without Julio Rodriguez). He walked four batters there though.
I’m being harsh, for sure.
So far we have seen something weird with Allen having bad Stuff+ but high SwStr%, and Miller having elite Stuff+ but average SwStr%. Maybe we just shouldn’t be overly trusting of Stuff+…
I don’t think Miller is going to be someone you really kick yourself for not having on your fantasy team. I’m sure he’ll have some good starts, but for the rest of the year I imagine the average outcome for him is like 5 innings per start with a mediocre ERA and a decent WHIP.
We have only seen him once so far, and that was last night. That was his first start above AA - which is pretty wild. He struck out 10 Athletics in six innings and put up these numbers:
Good marks to be sure. Alarming fastball usage though. The four-seamer was 70% and the cutter at 20%.
The 70% four-seam usage made him the only starting pitcher in the league to throw one pitch above 70% of the time. If we lower that to 60% we find these names:
» Heaney (4-Seam): 64%
» Kopech (4-Seam): 62%
» Gore (4-Seam): 61%
It is a rare thing to do, and there’s a reason for that! I don’t like it! He gets the Astros next, so if you already have him he’s an easy bench for that start - but we’ll at least get some more information about him from it. Maybe he just wanted to stick to basics for his Major League debut and decided early on that the fastball was working fine so he didn’t want to rock the boat. I highly doubt he’s really going to be 90% fastball/cutter going forward, but we’ll see. Clearly he’s not overly confident in the slider/changeup, and that’s a pretty big red flag for me.
We will see these three pitch today, and in the cases of Pfaadt and Stone it will be their big league debuts.
Varland we have seen before
His Stuff+ really sticks out at 122 with a 138 on his primary pitch, the cutter. A nice 14.5% SwStr% so far in the Majors
Let’s go to the AAA data now to see the pitch mixes on these guys.
Varland
High SwStr%, high GB% - I like it, I’m excited to see him today!
Pfaadt
Good SwStr% there but fewer ground-balls. He’s been pitching in the PCL which is tough. Still a lot of fastballs there and it doesn’t seem like it’s a super fantastic fastball, but I probably shouldn’t even say that because I don’t have much data on it. Good to see a confidently thrown slider there and you can see that pitch has been dominant in the minors, and it’s also nice to have the changeup there as well.
Stone
Stone caught my attention last year when I was first spinning up the minor league dashboards. He had a nice 34% K% and a 9% BB% last season. This year he’s been worse with a 26% K% and an 11% BB%, but it’s just 24.2 innings.
I like the even mixture between the four-seamer and the changeup, and the changeup looks absolutely filthy by that 27% SwStr% and 52% GB%. It would seem to me that to be successful in the Majors you need
A good fastball
A very good secondary pitch
I’m not sure about the fastball with Stone, but that changeup is interesting.
I feel like I’m missing someone but I have to wrap it up now. If I’m ranking the names above for the rest of the season, it would look like this - but this is pretty uneducated here so take it too seriously.
Pfaadt
Bibee
Varland
Stone
Allen
Mason Miller
Bryce Miller
I’ve added this to the notes:
1. Julio Urias (vs. PHI): 36.55 Points
2. Bryce Miller (vs. OAK): 30.3 Points
3. Bryce Elder (vs. MIA): 29.95 Points
4. Anthony DeSclafani (vs. HOU): 26.2 Points
5. Joe Ryan (vs. CWS): 25.7 Points
6. Mason Miller (vs. SEA): 25.35 Points
7. Freddy Peralta (vs. COL): 23.5 Points
8. Michael Kopech (vs. MIN): 21.9 Points
9. Gerrit Cole (vs. CLE): 20.7 Points
10. Patrick Sandoval (vs. STL): 17.65 Points
I just kind of wanted something to quickly point out which pitchers had the best starts of the day, so we can see that every day and then go from there if we want to look more into the outings.
That’s all I have time for today, but there is a lot of good stuff below from my quick read-through.
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 25 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Julio Urias (LAD): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Joe Ryan (MIN): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Steven Matz (STL): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Zac Gallen (ARI): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Bryce Miller (SEA): 13 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
9. Ryan Yarbrough (KC): 13 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
10. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
1. Bryce Miller (SEA): 16.0 SwStr%, 38.3 CSW%
2. Julio Urias (LAD): 16.8 SwStr%, 37.9 CSW%
3. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 26.6 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
4. Tyler Wells (BAL): 9.8 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
5. Ryan Yarbrough (KC): 16.2 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
6. Joe Ryan (MIN): 16.1 SwStr%, 32.2 CSW%
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 9.3 SwStr%, 29.6 CSW%
8. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 13.1 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
9. Michael Kopech (CWS): 13.5 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
10. Bryce Elder (ATL): 9.4 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
1. Bryce Elder - 6.67 IP - 145.0 JA Points
2. Bryce Miller - 6.0 IP - 139.5 JA Points
3. Julio Urias - 7.0 IP - 130.5 JA Points
4. Freddy Peralta - 6.0 IP - 129.5 JA Points
5. Joe Ryan - 6.0 IP - 123.5 JA Points
6. Anthony DeSclafani - 8.0 IP - 121.0 JA Points
7. Steven Matz - 5.0 IP - 117.0 JA Points
8. Zac Gallen - 5.0 IP - 108.5 JA Points
9. Tyler Wells - 6.0 IP - 106.5 JA Points
10. Michael Wacha - 6.0 IP - 106.5 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 6.0 GS - 125.08 JA Points
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 6.0 GS - 121.15 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 6.0 GS - 118.01 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 6.0 GS - 115.36 JA Points
5. Trevor Rogers (MIA) - 4.0 GS - 114.76 JA Points
6. Josiah Gray (WSH) - 6.0 GS - 112.95 JA Points
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 6.0 GS - 112.35 JA Points
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 6.0 GS - 111.57 JA Points
9. Johan Oviedo (PIT) - 6.0 GS - 108.2 JA Points
10. Patrick Sandoval (LAA) - 6.0 GS - 107.85 JA Points
Hayden Wesneski's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.2
Mason Miller's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.7
Mason Miller's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 97.1
Hunter Brown's CU velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 81.8
Michael Kopech's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 83.2
Hayden Wesneski's SI usage (28.2%) up 15.2 points
Hayden Wesneski's CH usage (15.4%) up 12.5 points
Josh Fleming's SI usage (56.9%) up 10.2 points
Josh Fleming's CH usage (36.2%) up 10.2 points
Matt Strahm's SL usage (31.4%) up 12.6 points
Michael Kopech's CU usage (14.6%) up 11.5 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (58.6%) up 12.8 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CH usage (31.2%) up 11.2 points
Tanner Bibee's FF usage (52.2%) up 12.6 points
Tanner Houck's SI usage (33.3%) up 13.8 points
Trevor Williams's FF usage (58.6%) up 15.4 points
Tyler Wells's FF usage (47.8%) up 11.7 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FF usage (55.9%) up 14.5 points
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 40.4% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 68 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Domingo German - 100 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 85 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Julio Urias - 94 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
David Peterson - 71 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Luke Weaver - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Matthew Boyd - 69 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 41.5% K%
Zac Gallen - 90 TBF, 40.0% K%
Matt Strahm - 69 TBF, 39.1% K%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 38.8% K%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 34.7% K%
Edward Cabrera - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Hunter Greene - 85 TBF, 31.8% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 87 TBF, 31.0% K%
Domingo German - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Cristian Javier - 68 TBF, 30.9% K%
Zac Gallen - 90 TBF, 40.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Matt Strahm - 69 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Domingo German - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
David Peterson - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 79 TBF, 67.3% GB%
Jake Woodford - 85 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 91 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 97 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Bryce Elder - 96 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 71 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Brad Keller - 89 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Nick Martinez - 78 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 93 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gio Urshela (LAA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 6 PA, 10 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ke'Bryan Hayes, Yesterday: 113.1 Previous High: 113.0
1. Connor Wong - 4.0 PA - 66.5 JA Points
2. Ryan Mountcastle - 6.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
3. Ezequiel Duran - 4.0 PA - 41.5 JA Points
4. Salvador Perez - 4.0 PA - 39.5 JA Points
5. Miguel Vargas - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
6. Masataka Yoshida - 4.0 PA - 37.5 JA Points
7. Alex Call - 4.0 PA - 25.5 JA Points
8. Eloy Jimenez - 4.0 PA - 24.5 JA Points
9. Rowdy Tellez - 4.0 PA - 24.0 JA Points
10. Willie Calhoun - 4.0 PA - 23.5 JA Points
1. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 122.0 PA - 34.92 JA Points
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 135.0 PA - 26.07 JA Points
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 135.0 PA - 19.11 JA Points
4. Will Smith (LAD) - 72.0 PA - 15.83 JA Points
5. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 136.0 PA - 15.15 JA Points
6. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 121.0 PA - 11.4 JA Points
7. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 124.0 PA - 11.29 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 130.0 PA - 9.54 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 116.0 PA - 9.14 JA Points
10. Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 105.0 PA - 8.38 JA Points
Matt Olson (ATL) - 114.0mph - single
Connor Wong (BOS) - 113.6mph - double
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 113.1mph - single
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 112.2mph - home_run
Hunter Renfroe (LAA) - 112.0mph - field_out
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 111.5mph - field_out
Joey Bart (SF) - 111.4mph - single
Taylor Ward (LAA) - 111.4mph - home_run
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 111.3mph - nan
Jorge Polanco (MIN) - 111.2mph - nan
Sean Murphy - 71 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 59 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 74 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 74 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Randy Arozarena - 80 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Jake Burger - 63 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 49 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Edmundo Sosa - 46 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Jonah Heim - 62 PA, 0.492 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 0.47 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 71 PA, 0.469 xwOBA
Masataka Yoshida - 65 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 74 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
J.D. Martinez - 47 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe - 79 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 59 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Vinnie Pasquantino - 79 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 55 PA, 106 Swings, 94.3 Cont%
Alec Burleson - 59 PA, 96 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 80 PA, 135 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 102 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 49 PA, 92 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 91 PA, 151 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Myles Straw - 65 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 72 PA, 128 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 50 PA, 83 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 81 PA, 114 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Esteury Ruiz - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Jack Suwinski - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Manuel Margot - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Wander Franco - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
J.T. Realmuto - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Wander Franco - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Starling Marte - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Steven Kwan - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Cedric Mullins - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Adley Rutschman - +11.3% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -4.5 Chase%
Trey Mancini - +3.9% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -12.9 Chase%
Rodolfo Castro - +10.7% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -6.1 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +3.7% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -8.2 Chase%
Charlie Blackmon - 0.395 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 20.0% Chase%, 11.8% K%
Ketel Marte - 0.378 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 76.5% Contact%, 23.4% Chase%, 16.3% K%
Masataka Yoshida - 0.49 xwOBA, 15.2% Brl%, 87.3% Contact%, 22.2% Chase%, 10.5% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.465 xwOBA, 16.2% Brl%, 79.5% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 15.1% K%
Nick Maton - 39.4% Whiff%, 76.2% Weak%, 0.976 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 40.7% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.966 Cold Rating
Kevin Smith - 37.3% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating
Jorge Soler - 33.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.915 Cold Rating
Triston Casas - 31.6% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Nolan Gorman - 36.0% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
Rafael Devers - 30.9% Whiff%, 75.6% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Matt Olson - 35.6% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Joey Gallo - 34.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
MJ Melendez - 38.8% Whiff%, 65.2% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
J.J. Matijevic (HOU): 5/6, 2R, 0HR, 8RBI, 0SB, 47FPts
Eddys Leonard (LAD): 4/5, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Colton Cowser (BAL): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Ethan Wilson (PHI): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Jose Ramos - 682947 (LAD): 1/2, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Chase Strumpf (CHC): 3/3, 4R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
David Hamilton (BOS): 4/5, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 29FPts
Jonny Deluca (LAD): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 29FPts
Tyler Black (MIL): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 28FPts
Jaylin Davis (NYM): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Jay Groome (SD): 6IP, 0H, 0ER, 9K, 3BB, 29FPts
Eury Perez (MIA): 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 11K, 1BB, 29FPts
Christian Mejias (MIL): 5IP, 0H, 0ER, 8K, 4BB, 28FPts
Andrew Abbott (CIN): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 8K, 2BB, 28FPts
Brant Hurter (DET): 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 7K, 1BB, 26FPts
Luke Albright (ARI): 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 23FPts
Tanner Gordon (ATL): 7IP, 4H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 23FPts
Blas Castano (NYY): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 3BB, 22FPts
Garrett Schoenle (CWS): 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 22FPts
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 18FPts
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