MLB Daily Notes - May 3rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Not much went down yesterday, and the savant data is currently missing that Guardians vs. Astros game, so you won’t see players from that game below. I paid no attention to baseball yesterday and took the opportunity to just turn my phone off for the whole night - it was pretty glorious. Both of my older kids are doing soccer shots, so every Thursday night I get to watch my kids go play sports and they’re finally at the point where I don’t have to like be involved and keep them on track, I can just sit back and watch. I’ve been waiting for that for a long time, and it’s good to see.
My three year old son is pretty timid, non-aggressive, and not to sure of himself. When it’s his turn to go kick the ball down the field and score a goal, he goes way slower than everybody else, and during the little scrimmage game they do he really avoids contact of any kind. He doesn’t like to do things he doesn’t know if he can do well or not, while my daughter will try anything and if she doesn’t do well she does it over and over again until she gets it. So yeah, kids are different… who knew. My wife and I definitely both have the passiveness in us. I never liked contact when I played sports and I didn’t care to work overly hard and losing never bothered me. Not sure if any of that stuff is genetic, but it’s there in my son already. And that’s fine, I’d rather have an overly-passive boy than an overly-aggressive and passionate one, I guess, at least about things that don’t matter that much like sports. But the early signs are that he doesn’t love sports, and I’m a little concerned about that.
For years now I have just been waiting to have someone to play sports with. I just want to play catch and shoot hoops, and being an adult you don’t have a ton of opportunities to do that with other people - so that’s why I created two boys. I knew it would take a long time before they’re out there ripping fastballs at me, but I can wait, as long as the day is coming eventually. Good news is I have three kids, so lots of chances here.
The one thing that makes me mad about little kids is that they don’t want to just go to the bathroom. Like if they are doing anything enjoyable whatsoever, they will not stop to go to the bathroom even when they really have to. They will just sit there doing their puzzle or watching the show or whatever and just hold it until they’re forced to go. Is that not uncomfortable for kids like it is for adults? The feeling of having to go to the bathroom is the worst to me, I go at the first sign of it. But no, kids can’t be bothered to just take 90 seconds to go to the bathroom and then go back to what they’re doing.
What is super nice that I’m super grateful for is that kids learn language pretty much by themselves. Can you imagine if kids didn’t just start talking and figuring out sentences and words and all of that without your step-by-step help? Disaster. If that were the case, I assume the human race wouldn’t have made it this far though.
Four interesting developments on the pitching side of things yesterday, even on the short slate.
Edward Cabrera
4 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 9 K, 4 BB, 17.6% SwStr%, 56% Strike%, 38.5% Ball%
There go the walks! It took your boy 91 pitches to get through four innings. Remember after that first start we were like yooooo Edward Cabrera just put up a 31.9% Ball!!!! Well, since then, that has gotten worse every single start:
So imagine that, the multi-year sample better predicted the future than a single start. His marks for the year still aren’t bad at all though:
356 pitches, 14% SwStr%, 52% Strike%, 35.4% Ball%
It’s a 56% GB% too, which you like to see especially with the walks (11.8% BB%), so I think Cabrera is useful in deep leagues. I just don’t think he’s a top 50 SP or anything like that, the command is going to continue to be an issue.
Kyle Harrison
5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 7 K, 5 BB, 13.7% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%, 40.0% Ball%
Harrison is one of these guys I can’t figure out. It’s a 23.9% K% and 6.3% BB% so far, which is pretty good, but there’s just no consistency anywhere here.
The 11.3% SwStr% on the season is not what we want, but overall he’s thrown a lot of strikes with a 33% Ball% and 49% Strike%. He is more of a fly-baller (38% GB%). So it seems like Harrison will just kind of bounce up and down between being a bit above average and a bit below average start-to-start.
Kyle Bradish
Not many people expected him to return this early, so that’s good if you’re an O’s or Bradish fan. He threw 84 pitches in his first go at it and was fine:
4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K, 2 BB, 10.7% SwStr%, 39.3% Ball%
I have long been a Bradish-fader because I just don’t think his fastball is any good, and I try to avoid the starters that I deem overly-dependent on a breaking ball. And that’s who Bradish has been over the last two seasons. He threw 38% sliders, 36% sinkers, 17% four-seamers, and 9.5% curveballs yesterday. That was more sliders and more sinkers than last year, and he scrapped the changeup for that start. I’ll monitor that moving forward, but for right now I would say that if someone thinks he’s a top-20 SP and will pay you in that fashion, I would let them do so.
Nathan Eovaldi
He got hurt, and might hit the IL with a groin strain.
Your homers yesterday:
Mountcastle, McKenna, Yastrzemski, Bell, Mateo, Stallings, Torres (first of the year), Morel
Gleyber Torres is now hitting .218/.293/.274 with one homer and a 3.3% Brl%. The strikeouts are okay at 24%, but that’s up a bunch from last year (15%), so lots of bad signs early on from Torres. I would imagine he bounces back and gets back to pretty much what you’re used to, but you never like to see a nine point hike in K% after a month.
Christopher Morel has been one of the more interesting hitters to follow this year as he’s dropped his K% more than ten points to 20.9% this year. That was his massive achilles heal in the past, and he’s improved. However, he’s hitting just .209 still, although him adding five homers and three steals has made him a useful fantasy player nonetheless. There should be some better times ahead in terms of the average and SLG, I think Morel has absurd upside this year if he’s really going to keep the K% down.
The other big thing that happened yesterday is that Christian Scott was called up by the Mets. I’ve talked about him a few times, but just know that you should add him in any kind of league of depth. I’d view him as a top 50 SP right out of the gate, I think. At the very least, the upside is worth taking a shot at over anybody in the area of like Aaron Civale/Reid Detmers/Reese Olson/etc.
You know the first place I go to is K-BB%. So let’s look at the last two years worth of data from all levels, 100+ innings minimum.
I honestly didn’t even know that Scott would be #1 on that list before I decided to look this up, so wow. Of course this isn’t to say that he’s in the Strider/Skubal arena since he put up most of those numbers in AA and AAA where the hitters are much, much worse.
But with this dashboard I have we can go back to say, 2021-2022 and see the pitchers with a K-BB% above 25% in the minors and see what has happened to those guys.
2021-2022 AA-AAA K-BB% Leaders, 100+ IP
Grayson Rodriguez 30.1%
JP Sears 26.9%
Kutter Crawford 26.0%
Brandon Pfaadt 25.8%
DL Hall 25.2%
Mark Leiter Jr. 24.9%
Hunter Greene 24.1%
Hunter Gaddis 23.7%
Logan Allen 23.6%
Brayan Bello 23.6%
Bobby Miller 23.6%
He’s bested everybody but Grayson there, which is a pretty good sign. But there are plenty of names here that you wouldn’t be pumped about having. Will he Grayson? Or will he Gaddis? That is the question!
Waiver wire adds piece coming out this morning - and then a big slate preview post for another beautiful Friday night of baseball!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Peter Lambert
2. Edward Cabrera
3. Kyle Harrison
4. Nathan Eovaldi
5. Ben Brown
6. Carlos Rodon
7. Kyle Bradish
8. Mitchell Parker
9. Adrian Houser
10. Josh Winckowski
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. WSH): 29.59 Points
2. Kyle Harrison (vs. BOS): 18.45 Points
3. Spencer Arrighetti (vs. CLE): 16.56 Points
4. Kyle Bradish (vs. NYY): 14.91 Points
5. Edward Cabrera (vs. COL): 14.8 Points
6. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. HOU): 13.96 Points
7. Ben Brown (vs. NYM): 11.71 Points
8. Ty Blach (vs. MIA): 11.2 Points
9. Mitchell Parker (vs. TEX): 11.19 Points
10. Justin Lawrence (vs. MIA): 10.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
2. Peter Lambert (COL): 14 Whiffs (67 Pitches)
3. Kyle Harrison (SF): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
4. Ben Brown (CHC): 12 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
5. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 10 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 9 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
8. Adrian Houser (NYM): 7 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
9. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 6 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
10. Michael Tonkin (NYY): 6 Whiffs (27 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 56.0 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
2. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 52.2 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
3. Kyle Harrison (SF): 50.5 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
4. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 48.8 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
5. Ben Brown (CHC): 48.3 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
6. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 47.0 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 46.4 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
8. Peter Lambert (COL): 46.3 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
9. Adrian Houser (NYM): 39.0 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
10. Josh Winckowski (BOS): 32.1 Strike%, 41.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Josh Winckowski: 53 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.08 POUT
2. Mitchell Parker: 83 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.19 POUT
3. Adrian Houser: 82 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.47 POUT
4. Nathan Eovaldi: 92 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.75 POUT
5. Kyle Bradish: 84 Pitches, 14 Outs, 6.0 POUT
6. Kyle Harrison: 95 Pitches, 15 Outs, 6.33 POUT
7. Ben Brown: 89 Pitches, 14 Outs, 6.36 POUT
8. Carlos Rodon: 80 Pitches, 12 Outs, 6.67 POUT
9. Peter Lambert: 67 Pitches, 10 Outs, 6.7 POUT
10. Edward Cabrera: 91 Pitches, 11 Outs, 8.27 POUT
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Houser's SI usage (57.3%) up 10.2 points
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (42.5%) up 15.9 points
Josh Winckowski's FC usage (47.2%) up 12.1 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (35.7%) up 12.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -26.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Shota Imanaga 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +16.1%
Tanner Houck Split-Finger: +15.7%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -15.1%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.9%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +14.6%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Marcus Stroman Slider: +13.7%
Cal Quantrill Split-Finger: +12.7%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +12.4%
Logan Allen Sweeper: -12.3%
Yu Darvish Slider: +12.2%
Brady Singer Sinker: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 93 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 97 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Zack Littell - 77 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Reynaldo Lopez - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 88 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 39.6% K%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 35.9% K%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 34.2% K%
Zack Wheeler - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Erick Fedde - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Erick Fedde - 75 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Zack Littell - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 102 TBF, 70.5% GB%
Max Fried - 97 TBF, 70.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 90 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Quinn Priester - 71 TBF, 68.5% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 100 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Keaton Winn - 88 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 81 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 69 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 94 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 88 TBF, 29.5 K%, 3.4 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 4.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 33.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 44.0% GB%
Jared Jones - 60 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 33.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Luis Castillo - +2.9% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +8.6% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Miles Mikolas - +3.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Ryan Pepiot - +2.0% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +5.2% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +3.6% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Tanner Houck - +3.6% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Zack Littell - +6.4% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Erick Fedde - +5.1% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +2.8% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +4.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Brandon Pfaadt - +3.4% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +4.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jose Urena - +3.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Ryan McKenna (BAL) 2 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.8mph - field_out
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 109.3mph - nan
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 108.9mph - nan
Ryan McKenna (BAL) - 108.2mph - field_out
Thairo Estrada (SF) - 107.3mph - nan
Hunter Goodman (COL) - 107.1mph - nan
Jacob Stallings (COL) - 107.0mph - home_run
Nick Fortes (MIA) - 107.0mph - single
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 107.0mph - home_run
Harrison Bader (NYM) - 106.9mph - force_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Corey Seager - 77 PA, 0.219 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, 0.142 Diff
Colt Keith - 62 PA, 0.151 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.141 Diff
Matt Olson - 74 PA, 0.234 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, 0.137 Diff
Shea Langeliers - 64 PA, 0.216 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.114 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 60 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Mike Trout - 75 PA, 0.283 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 56 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff
Manny Machado - 63 PA, 0.291 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Ryan Noda - 57 PA, 0.194 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff
Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 0.23 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Bottom 10
Daulton Varsho - 64 PA, 0.446 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.135 Diff
Connor Wong - 59 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Ryan Jeffers - 78 PA, 0.468 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Jacob Young - 56 PA, 0.38 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Wilyer Abreu - 69 PA, 0.45 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Josh Smith - 71 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Byron Buxton - 59 PA, 0.328 wOBA, 0.227 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Willi Castro - 80 PA, 0.409 wOBA, 0.313 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 66 PA, 0.383 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Tyler Nevin - 70 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Tyler Stephenson - 48 PA, 30 BIP, 9 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 80 PA, 55 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Colton Cowser - 68 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Juan Soto - 90 PA, 63 BIP, 13 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Elly De La Cruz - 78 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Riley Greene - 85 PA, 47 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Travis d'Arnaud - 51 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 66 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Christian Walker - 81 PA, 51 BIP, 9 Brls, 17.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 0.515 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 74 PA, 0.503 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 80 PA, 0.494 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 90 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 70 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Tyler Stephenson - 48 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 79 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Travis d'Arnaud - 51 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Elly De La Cruz - 78 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Jordan Westburg - 73 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 127 Swings, 93.7 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 150 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 142 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 58 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Wilmer Flores - 50 PA, 75 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 56 PA, 82 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Jung Hoo Lee - 75 PA, 125 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Oswaldo Cabrera - 78 PA, 141 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Gabriel Moreno - 51 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
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