MLB Daily Notes - May 5th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Plenty to talk about the pitching side yesterday.
Jared Jones
7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 10 K, 0 BB, 17.7% SwStr%, 57.3% Strike%, 30.2% Ball%
A moderate SwStr% for him, but much more realistic. For the season now it’s a 20.9% SwStr% and 28.1% Ball% and a 33.8% K-BB%, just ludicrous stuff.
He now has a 2.26 SIERA, second only to Jack Flaherty (2.21).
John Means
7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 8 K, 0 BB, 22.4% SwStr%, 31.8% Ball%
This one hurt me personally. I tweeted in the morning that Means isn’t a good fantasy pitcher, and then he went ahead and was a very good fantasy pitcher. In 32 starts 2021-2023 he posted a 16.7% K-BB% and he has a career 4.48 SIERA. He’s pretty much been a pitch-to-contact guy who has benefited from some really good runs of starts and has gotten a lot of notoriety and an All Star Game start because of it. That’s not the kind of pitcher he looked like last night with all of those whiffs:
But that’s still probably who he is. 36.5% changeup usage is pretty wild, not sure if he can keep that up. I suppose Means should be rostered in 12-teamers given the good offense behind him and the park situation, but I don’t imagine you’ll see another 20%+ SwStr% start from him.
Christian Scott
I watched this one. Like watched the humans play the game with my eyes.
6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 19.1% SwStr%, 52.1% Strike%, 28.7% Ball%
It was a really impressive performance, although again I don’t watch a lot of pitchers actually pitch so maybe I don’t know what impressive actually looks like. I do now that 19% SwStr% and 29% Ball% is very impressive.
My scouting analysis is that his sweeper is insanely sweepy. Let’s see if I’m right.
League average horizontal movement: 14.42 inches
Christian Scott’s sweeper last night: 15.55 inches
The league leaders around around 19-20 inches, so it’s not the sweepiest sweeper of the sweepers but it’s sweepier than average.
The command on it was awesome last night though I can say that, he got so many chases and just really had righties completely hopeless against it (look my game-watching analysis has turned into psycho-analysis). Given the long history of a ton of strikeouts and a very low walk rate in the minors, I think it’s safe to say this guy has pristine command. His fastball doesn’t have the most velo on it, but I wonder if it isn’t one of those iVB bro pitches, because hitters were way under on it on a ton of swings and you can see the 19.5% SwStr% there.
I already viewed Scott as must-own given the upside of young pitchers and the SP landscape right now, and last night really nailed that down. He only threw 88 innings last year so he’s not going out there and ripping down six innings every five games for the rest of the year, and that’s a slight concern but not a huge one.
Surprise, surprise - the Erick Fedde thing came to a halt.
4.1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 5 BB, 7.7% SwStr%, 36.3% Strike%, 47.3% Ball%
That’s really, really bad.
Ranger Suarez also had a more Ranger Suarez-esque start:
6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 8.5% SwStr%, 29.8% Ball%
Still a lot of strikes but the whiffs didn’t come, and you had to figure he wasn’t going to be the high whiff pitcher for long. But he got through a qualbanger and didn’t put up anything horrible. You’re still starting Suarez if you have him but he’s still a very good sell-high SP in my book.
Casey Mize might have had his best start of the year by the numbers I look at, but he gave up nine hits and five earned runs to the Yankees. The good news was the 16.1% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%, and 29% Ball%.
The four-seamer went for a 19% SwStr% and 60% Strike%, compared to his previous season marks of 9% and 44%. He needs to keep those four-seamer numbers above like 12% SwStr% and 51% Strike% to have a shot, but at least we can say it’s possible.
All of that and not even mentioning the top algo pitcher of the day, Zack Littell. What an impressive [almost] year in the rotation he’s had with the Rays. A long time middle-reliever turned into a near ace SP. Amazing.
How about these Oakland Athletics, right? They’re now 17-17 after going a week just abusing bad teams (Pirates & Marlins).
They’re now tied for second in the league in homers, and that’s without getting hardly anything out of their best hitter in Zack Gelof. Lots of strikeouts still, and none of these names [save maybe Bleday/Langeliers/Gelof] are guys you expect sustained success from, but it’s working right now and you have to be happy for those guys.
It’s also a testament to the current state of the Marlins. They shipped off Luis Arraez in a rare May trade, and yeah that made sense but it’s gotta be disheartening to be giving up before Memorial Day. But it’s just a game so don’t be disheartened, there is more to life than sports and careers and earthly success.
The Marlins are hitting .222/.280/.333 this year with just 26 homers. They have been missing Jake Burger for a couple of weeks and he’ll be back soon, and it’s not like a completely ridiculously pathetic lineup once he’s back in there - but the loss of Arraez obviously is a downgrade even if that guy is just a singles-hound at best.
Their real problem is the team 5.27 ERA. There in lies the problem. There’s a lot of just unfortunate injury stuff going on here, remember who is on their IL
Sandy Alcantara
Eury Perez
Braxton Garrett
That’s two aces and one really good SP, with all three of them plus Max Meyer in the bigs next year they could be immediately right back up into the middle of the league.
Okay that’s it for today. Have a great Sunday, and please be praying for me to get lucky and crawl out of this 1-11 hole I’m in right now in home league…
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Zack Littell
2. John Means
3. Jared Jones
4. Christian Scott
5. Pablo Lopez
6. Andrew Abbott
7. Jameson Taillon
8. Casey Mize
9. Logan Gilbert
10. Kevin Gausman
11. Tyler Glasnow
12. Reid Detmers
13. Brandon Pfaadt
14. Clarke Schmidt
15. Ranger Suarez
16. Lance Lynn
17. Brennan Bernardino
18. Austin Gomber
19. Paul Blackburn
20. Bryce Elder
21. Framber Valdez
22. Michael King
23. Michael Wacha
24. Ben Lively
25. Keaton Winn
26. Jake Irvin
27. Erick Fedde
28. Dane Dunning
29. Tobias Myers
30. Trevor Rogers
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jared Jones (vs. COL): 35.15 Points
2. John Means (vs. CIN): 33.95 Points
3. Tyler Glasnow (vs. ATL): 32.15 Points
4. Logan Gilbert (vs. HOU): 30.4 Points
5. Jameson Taillon (vs. MIL): 29.1 Points
6. Kevin Gausman (vs. WSH): 28.99 Points
7. Pablo Lopez (vs. BOS): 27.9 Points
8. Zack Littell (vs. NYM): 21.9 Points
9. Christian Scott (vs. TB): 21.41 Points
10. Ben Lively (vs. LAA): 21.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 19 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
2. John Means (BAL): 19 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
3. Zack Littell (TB): 18 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Christian Scott (NYM): 18 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Jared Jones (PIT): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Reid Detmers (LAA): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
7. Casey Mize (DET): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 14 Whiffs (112 Pitches)
10. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Littell (TB): 57.5 Strike%, 24.1 Ball%
2. Jared Jones (PIT): 57.3 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
3. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 55.6 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 55.4 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
5. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 54.8 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
6. Christian Scott (NYM): 52.1 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%
7. John Means (BAL): 50.6 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
8. Casey Mize (DET): 50.5 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
9. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 50.0 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
10. Jake Irvin (WSH): 47.7 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
11. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 46.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
12. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 46.5 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
13. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 46.2 Strike%, 41.8 Ball%
14. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 44.9 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
15. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 44.8 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert: 96 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. John Means: 85 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.25 POUT
3. Jared Jones: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
4. Tyler Glasnow: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
5. Christian Scott: 94 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.7 POUT
6. Ben Lively: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
7. Zack Littell: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
8. Brandon Pfaadt: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Paul Blackburn: 105 Pitches, 21 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Austin Gomber: 88 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.18 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 83.3
Michael Wacha's SI velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.7
Logan Gilbert's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.6
John Means's CH velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.0
Zack Littell's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.5
Mitch White's FF velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.2
Zack Littell's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.2
Kevin Gausman's FF velo (63 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.0
Dane Dunning's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 80.3
Austin Gomber's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 75.5
Ranger Suarez's FF velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.3
Kevin Gausman's FS velo (38 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.2
Ranger Suarez's SI velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.4
Dane Dunning's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.7
Reid Detmers's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.3
Austin Gomber's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 81.8
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 85.7
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 79.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's CH usage (29.5%) up 10.2 points
Ben Lively's FF usage (44.7%) up 11.7 points
Ben Lively's ST usage (14.1%) up 10.4 points
Brandon Pfaadt's SI usage (23.6%) up 10.5 points
Darren McCaughan's FF usage (21.8%) up 10.5 points
Erick Fedde's FS usage (31.9%) up 11.8 points
Jake Irvin's FC usage (19.6%) up 16.3 points
Lance Lynn's ST usage (11.7%) up 11.3 points
Logan Gilbert's FC usage (16.7%) up 13.2 points
Michael King's FF usage (37.4%) up 12.5 points
Pablo Lopez's ST usage (31.3%) up 10.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -26.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +20.4%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +19.0%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Joe Ross Sinker: -16.9%
Shota Imanaga 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -15.1%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: -14.2%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.1%
Zack Littell Sinker: -14.1%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +12.4%
Yu Darvish Slider: +12.2%
Ronel Blanco 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 97 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Zack Littell - 100 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 87 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 107 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Aaron Civale - 93 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 39.6% K%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Zack Wheeler - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 105 TBF, 32.4% K%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
George Kirby - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 29.5% K%
Cole Ragans - 85 TBF, 29.4% K%
Clarke Schmidt - 87 TBF, 28.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
George Kirby - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Zack Littell - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 105 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
Clarke Schmidt - 87 TBF, 23.0% K-BB%
Ranger Suarez - 108 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nathan Eovaldi - 100 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 86 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 92 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 108 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Cole Irvin - 90 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 85 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 97 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 96 TBF, 52.2% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 93 TBF, 51.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Jared Jones - 82 TBF, 32.9 K%, 3.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 36.2 K%, 5.0 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Sonny Gray - 96 TBF, 34.4 K%, 5.2 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Spencer Turnbull - 66 TBF, 30.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 105 TBF, 32.4 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Ranger Suarez - +3.4% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Tanner Houck - +2.3% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Zack Littell - +6.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Erick Fedde - +4.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Sonny Gray - +5.1% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.3% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +5.2% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Chris Sale - +2.7% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +2.8% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Miles Mikolas - +5.8% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +8.8% CSW%, -6.6 BB%
Ryan Pepiot - +2.1% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Luke Weaver - +3.9% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brent Rooker (OAK) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brett Harris (OAK) 6 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR
Shea Langeliers (OAK) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Wilmer Flores (SF) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Sam Haggerty, Yesterday: 109.9 Previous High: 109.0
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